Mafiascum.net

2 conftowns + 2 scums + 1 nonconftown is not autowin

In post 3250, Aristeia wrote:2 conftowns + 2 scums + 1 nonconftown is not autowin

It is though.

Scum can’t push anyone.

It’s autowin scum can’t do anything

In post 3249, MathBlade wrote:Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

Yet it wasn't soo not autowin.

Find his partner.

I mean it just isn't autowin

town has to ID the town player correctly to win,

the odds of that happening is 1 in 3...

In post 3252, Titus wrote:

In post 3249, MathBlade wrote:Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

Yet it wasn't soo not autowin.

Find his partner.

I did Chaos and Datisi and if Chaos is town it’s literally idgaf gg we win

In post 3254, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3252, Titus wrote:

In post 3249, MathBlade wrote:Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

Yet it wasn't soo not autowin.

Find his partner.

I did Chaos and Datisi and if Chaos is town it’s literally idgaf gg we win

I am never voting Datisi. Try again.

What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

In post 3256, Gamma Emerald wrote:What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

In post 3257, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3256, Gamma Emerald wrote:What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

Okay now you’ve lost me, how does bussing out them? They’re not obligated to cross bus either

In post 3257, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3256, Gamma Emerald wrote:What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

That's not true.

In post 3255, Titus wrote:

In post 3254, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3252, Titus wrote:

In post 3249, MathBlade wrote:Ran into the problem in Calculasia which shoulda been a loss

Yet it wasn't soo not autowin.

Find his partner.

I did Chaos and Datisi and if Chaos is town it’s literally idgaf gg we win

I am never voting Datisi. Try again.

Or I have tomorrow to convince you if Chaos flips red.

I literally Gotta go

In 2-2-1 endgame, every unconfirmed player will say "I am the last townie, the other 2 are scum"

There will be no difference between their stances on each other.

It will be up to the two conf town to correctly pick which player is the actual townie among the three unconfirmed players - the probability of this happening is 1/3.

It is nowhere close to "autowin"

In post 3258, Gamma Emerald wrote:

In post 3257, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3256, Gamma Emerald wrote:What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

Okay now you’ve lost me, how does bussing out them? They’re not obligated to cross bus either

We know scum are forced to bus so anyone not conf on the wagon looks sus
Scum can’t bus and can’t not bus
Ergo they lose

In post 3260, MathBlade wrote:Or I have tomorrow to convince you if Chaos flips red.

I literally Gotta go

You're not convincing me there. Ever.

it's autowin* on the assumption that the town has perfect reads. which uh. if we had that, the game would've been over yesterday.

daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaatiiiiiiiiiiiiisssssssssssiiiiiiiiiiiii

In post 3262, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3258, Gamma Emerald wrote:

In post 3257, MathBlade wrote:

In post 3256, Gamma Emerald wrote:What I think math is saying is if both scum try to push the remaining townie they lose, the issue there is they aren’t obligated to do that

Then they bus and they’re outed for bussing.

It’s a no win situation for scum.

Okay now you’ve lost me, how does bussing out them? They’re not obligated to cross bus either

We know scum are forced to bus so anyone not conf on the wagon looks sus
Scum can’t bus and can’t not bus
Ergo they lose

Your problem is assuming scum are going on with zero consideration of prior stances or anti-coordination (basically doing different things individually to reach the same group final goal)
Unless both scum are forced to take their stance immediately they have way more wiggle room than you think

In post 3265, Aristeia wrote:daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaatiiiiiiiiiiiiisssssssssssiiiiiiiiiiiii

Like the obvious third option to what math is saying is “one scum busses, the other pushes town”

In post 3268, Gamma Emerald wrote:Like the obvious third option to what math is saying is “one scum busses, the other pushes town”

no because if you are one of three people left "unconfirmed" it doesn't who you push at all.

The endgame Math is outlining is

there is literally 0 thinking involved.


Two CONFIRMED town.

Three people who are unconfirmed, two of them being scum, one being town.

The town player KNOWS the other two players are scum and is willing to vote for either of them and doesn't care who dies between the other two.

This mindset is incredibly easy for scum to replicate because there's no solving involved, it's just "I am the last townie, vote out the other two players".

There's literally ZERO strategy or thinking involved in such an endgame.

In post 3267, Datisi wrote:

The more math posts, the less comfortable I am following him...

UNVOTE:

I am at the beach right now, and need to look over everything again tonight x x

I am pretty sure Math is town here.

I get Luke's resistance though. Math's gone off the deep end on dolved and Datisi scum. I can see Chaos scum though.

i have nonzero anxiety about titus dying tonight and people yeeting me tomorrow because math is loud and has a new shiny conspiracy theory going on

In post 3273, Datisi wrote:i have nonzero anxiety about titus dying tonight and people yeeting me tomorrow because math is loud and has a new shiny conspiracy theory going on

They'd flip Chaos first before you. There's no clear on Chaos.