Mafiascum.net

Here, how 'bout a nice start:

Reads on vonflare, OC, myself, copper, and Om.

Let's lynch em.

Uhhh Drixx, you got a bit of kettle talking to the pot going on?

↑ God of Power Outlets wrote:Let's lynch em.

You want to lynch all of those?

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:Here, how 'bout a nice start:

Reads on vonflare, OC, myself, copper, and Om.

↑ God of Power Outlets wrote:Let's lynch em.

I can dig it

I seriously hope you all are punking me.

Do you think ad is town titus

Well, at first I was all "Hooray mollie was scum and got deaded," and then I was all "Boo the back-and-forth with Titus and Drixx is unreadable" but then I remembered I didn't have to read it and here I am.

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LucianRoy is town. Suspicion of LucianRoy-scum is pointless. The guy is new and excited about being a dayvig and getting to shoot someone in the face and wants to make sure that he's doing it right. Yeah, like 80% of what he says is wrong or misguided. That doesn't make him scum. Scumplay would be to totally claim vengeful (not vigilante), hold on to shot, then use it on lylo to insta-win.

Drixx is town. Titus is completely off her rocker here. I get the annoyance (I was equally annoyed when someone in a prev game destroyed me fakeclaiming vigilante in order to draw fire off the real vigilante) but mafia have zero reason to out anything in the thread like that, they'd just shoot you if they thought you were a threat. You wouldn't live to lylo-land to begin with.

Titus. I get that you're trying to do kuribo's rage-emotion-reaction-test thing, but it's annoying as balls even when he does it, and it's even more annoying when you do it.

I know Vyse has posted words but they just sort of slid by my head without making an imprint.

Lihin wagon is ok. Claim is confirmable but meh. I skipped over a lot of shit in regards to it because I hate reading.

Copper continues to be town, and people calling him non-town are flummoxing me.

Cerberus is still my strongest scumread, which is sad given him being a townread D1 but such is life.

@BB, it's possible. Nothing he's posted gives me the total heebie jeebies.

@Magua, if I got a dollar every time someone said that the last game I pulled that stunt, my student loans would be paid off. It's not a rage-reaction-test. Hell, if I scumread and wanted to lynch anyone I pissed off, no one would be on my townreads list. When I did it on the other site, no one got pissed. No one believed me until late in the game though. I'm annoyed that no one believes in me. Maybe they will with a Lihin flip.

Can you explain Cerberus being on your scumread list?

I like Vyse as town.

↑ Titus wrote:

↑ God of Power Outlets wrote:Let's lynch em.

You want to lynch all of those?

Along with Boonskiies and BBMolla yes. It seems we don't have enough lynching power today...

Ok. If your pushing of Drixx is not a reaction test, you are not competently ascribing motivations to people, and rage hyperbole like "Die die die, you're scum because you saw something that didn't line up and you picked at it and that's something that only scum do" is not only wrong, but massively detrimental, and if you actually believe that Drixx is scum for doing that then my gauging of your play as competent is way off and will be ratcheted down accordingly.

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Re: Cerberus. At least one, if not both, scumteams killed Marquis in preference to masons, or to Dorian (scum would want him to die while there were more town to hit, percentagewise) or to someone who had been playing low and might've been a powerful PR keeping mum. Indicates high priority Marquis threat. Threat priority is higher because, though murky with two factions, with PI as roleblocker they also had the option of just rb'ing him but there's a non-zero chance that they shot him instead.

Marquis only had two targets (ChriVi and Cerberus). Cerberus says ChriVi is mod-confirmed town to him, so the only logical answer would be that he targets Cerberus.

Cerberus-scumteam has every reason to stop that from happening, obv.
If Cerberus were town, each scumteam would've been better off shooting Cerberus than Marquis. Same zero confirmables, suspicion stays on Marquis, etc.

That was the thought at the beginning of the Day. Cerberus so far today has been minimal -- votes Lucian as pressure to shoot PI, but doesn't think shot should happen immediately, a bunch of non-positioned things regarding your votes on Drixx, etc, only enhance the active lurk read.

Did we ever make any deductions based off of Mollie's flip?

I deduced that she was scum.

Furthermore, I deduced that Ozgin isn't her partner. Some people will dispute this, and there is a certain amount of paranoia that is healthy, but that'll be for when it's D6 and Ozgin is still alive, not now.

@Magua, I've literally pulled this gambit before but I was iceproof townie and not a treestump. It caught 2 scum and one townie (but she always scumreads me) in a 4 scum setup. I did not pick at him but I don't think it's worth quibbling over. I have a spoilered wall that explains what I did and why I did it. If you can't follow it, then oh well. Drixx displayed exactly the same behavior as the scum displayed before. His actions derailed a Lihin wagon. I have trouble seeing the town motivation in what he did but there is a remote chance that is colored by what I know. The more Drixx stalls on providing content, the slimmer that window becomes.

I also would kill the cop over masons. Masons can be persuaded and manipulated. They are informed townies. Cops, the longer they live, the more of a threat they become. I do think there is a link between the PI being a roleblocker and the likihood of scum shooting Marquis. It actually makes Narnian's story more believable. Why would scum with a roleblocker shoot the cop over masons or a nightskipper? That doesn't make sense. Scum shooting the nightkiller makes sense because of the ability for an extra lynch. Then they block the cop. No one has eluded to being blocked by PI. That makes sense.

Who is Dorian?

Killing Cerebus is not a great move for scum. If Cerebus flips town, then ChiVi is confirmed town. Why would scum make a confirmed town in this setup? I would expect scum to kill ChiVi before Cerebus unless he was right on his reads or they knew he was scum.

I do agree with the active lurk read on him though. I haven't seen much of Cerebus lately.

↑ Magua wrote:

@Titus:

Ok. If your pushing of Drixx is not a reaction test, you are not competently ascribing motivations to people, and rage hyperbole like "Die die die, you're scum because you saw something that didn't line up and you picked at it and that's something that only scum do" is not only wrong, but massively detrimental, and if you actually believe that Drixx is scum for doing that then my gauging of your play as competent is way off and will be ratcheted down accordingly.

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Re: Cerberus. At least one, if not both, scumteams killed Marquis in preference to masons, or to Dorian (scum would want him to die while there were more town to hit, percentagewise) or to someone who had been playing low and might've been a powerful PR keeping mum. Indicates high priority Marquis threat. Threat priority is higher because, though murky with two factions, with PI as roleblocker they also had the option of just rb'ing him but there's a non-zero chance that they shot him instead.

Marquis only had two targets (ChriVi and Cerberus). Cerberus says ChriVi is mod-confirmed town to him, so the only logical answer would be that he targets Cerberus.

Cerberus-scumteam has every reason to stop that from happening, obv.
If Cerberus were town, each scumteam would've been better off shooting Cerberus than Marquis. Same zero confirmables, suspicion stays on Marquis, etc.

That was the thought at the beginning of the Day. Cerberus so far today has been minimal -- votes Lucian as pressure to shoot PI, but doesn't think shot should happen immediately, a bunch of non-positioned things regarding your votes on Drixx, etc, only enhance the

active lurk read

.

I always actively lurk. Much easier to read and follow than to pull quotes and respond to things. Also, your logic is flawed. Shooting me conftowns ChriVi, while leaving an investigator alive. Shooting Marquis leaves open the chance to cause mislynches via mounting suspicion if ChriVi and myself remain alive, while simultaneously removing a claimed investigator. Both lines are viable, but the marquis play is better, unless scum wanted to dodge protective roles.

↑ Magua wrote:Furthermore, I deduced that Ozgin isn't her partner. Some people will dispute this, and there is a certain amount of paranoia that is healthy, but that'll be for when it's D6 and Ozgin is still alive, not now.

D-6? Man you're generous. If I don't investigate a scum tonight, I'm probably dead.

From what I understand how bussing works, I figure that bussing is something you do to in thread to maybe start a wagon, and see where it goes for purposes of distancing. I don't think it makes much sense to outright claim cop and instakill a scum partner.

So there's a lot of walls of text I've been seeing, can anyone sum up the Lihin case to it's 3 major-most points of evidence, so I can tell if it's worthwhile to read? I'm a little behind, I took a small work break for school since I figured I was in okay-standings for today.

P-Edit @Titus:

Can you give me a summation of your Drixx case as well? Same criteria -- 3 major-most points of evidence? It would be well appreciated.

↑ Magua wrote:Furthermore, I deduced that Ozgin isn't her partner. Some people will dispute this, and there is a certain amount of paranoia that is healthy, but that'll be for when it's D6 and Ozgin is still alive, not now.

I agree with the conclusion, but I wouldn't go so far to say it's confirmed. Very remote and unlikely though.

I believe you are highly overestimating the correlation between "I did this this one time and it had a 66% success rate" with "Everytime I do this thing it will have a 66% success rate." I have seen scum daykill their partner whom no one suspected out of the blue D1 in a multiscum setup. That does not correlate to Lucian being scum.

"Dorian" => "Lucian". My mind is apparently fried and can only remember the last parts of his name for some reason.

Marquis was a neighbor cop. Not a regular cop, who could investigate anyone. A neighbor cop. Number of claimed neighbors: 2. So the maximum number of people that Marquis could clear would be 2. This is why *at least one* (if not both) teams targeting him make me think it a lot more likely that Cerberus is guilty.

You're right that in a Marquis-town/Cerberus-town/ChriVi-town scenario, Cerberus would never be shot in preference to ChriVi. Another brainfart. The general thought I was trying to put into words is that if they're all town, Marquis is a weird kill.

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Wonderful. And so your current thoughts are what then? Because I haven't seen anything other than some noncommittal "stop arguing guys" posts.

@Magua, I'm not so sure your definition of neighbor is broad enough. There's a QT cop I've seen before. Don't ask me the game though. Technically, if that's the definition, the neighbors are millers to Marquis and all scum become positive reads. Basically, if the scum thought all of them were neighbors with each other, then shooting Marquis is high value. At least one of the scumteams likely shared that definition.

The day 1 scum killing each other is ultra rare. :S I would not suspect that.

I'll set aside the whole fallacy you are spouting regarding my logic. I'm wanting to move on from that. If it was just "gee whoever's favorite letter is G is scum" then I would absolutely agree with you. If it's an expected pattern of behaviors that are independently scummy, they bear more weight. If you disagree, fine. Now's not the time for this fight. We have a scumread we agree on. Drixx has the ability to show himself to be the town you profess him to be or the obvscum I know he is. What good does going back do us?

↑ Magua wrote:

@Titus:

I believe you are highly overestimating the correlation between "I did this this one time and it had a 66% success rate" with "Everytime I do this thing it will have a 66% success rate." I have seen scum daykill their partner whom no one suspected out of the blue D1 in a multiscum setup. That does not correlate to Lucian being scum.

"Dorian" => "Lucian". My mind is apparently fried and can only remember the last parts of his name for some reason.

Marquis was a neighbor cop. Not a regular cop, who could investigate anyone. A neighbor cop. Number of claimed neighbors: 2. So the maximum number of people that Marquis could clear would be 2. This is why *at least one* (if not both) teams targeting him make me think it a lot more likely that Cerberus is guilty.

You're right that in a Marquis-town/Cerberus-town/ChriVi-town scenario, Cerberus would never be shot in preference to ChriVi. Another brainfart. The general thought I was trying to put into words is that if they're all town, Marquis is a weird kill.

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@Cerberus:

Wonderful. And so your current thoughts are what then? Because I haven't seen anything other than some noncommittal "stop arguing guys" posts.

Vyse,Titus, Drixx, Narn, ChriVi are town, in descending order of towniness. Lihin and copper feel like scum. No notable lean either way on the rest of you. By play alone the masons are null, before someone asks me why I don't have them in my list of town reads.

Oh, Lucian is probably town too. Scumlucian might use him being VT now as an excuse for late survival, but VT now in a sea of PRs doesn't outweigh his town cred, since by just claiming vengeful so he'd have cause to live till end game and surprise everyone with a shot to clinch the game for scum.

Also, Magua, the "stop arguing guys" type posts always approachthe issue from the angle of examining what benefit a suspected scummy play has for the player in question. Just reading my thoughts there should tell you whether I think a player in one of these arguments is more likely scum or not, based on whatever the initial argument was about.

↑ Ozgin wrote:From what I understand how bussing works, I figure that bussing is something you do to in thread to maybe start a wagon, and see where it goes for purposes of distancing. I don't think it makes much sense to outright claim cop and instakill a scum partner.

that's because you've never known the joy of powerfucking those that trusted you into the ground and riding to victory atop a sled made of your scumbuddies' corpses


alternatively, you've never known the joy of screaming for days on end at your own scumbuddy, then faking a guilty on someone knowing that it'll get you lynched... only to watch your buddy coast for five days on "there's no way he's scum with them, they argued too much" in order to win it all (lol graveyard shift amirite)

i don't think you're bussing, though. you're too innocent, like a little deer. i believe you got a guilty N1 and weren't sure how to keep it in your pants and push that wagon subtly, so you just went fuck it and decided to trade your life for Pirate Ika's

and given how hard mollie can be to lynch, I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing.

in a day 2 cop guilty, if you're scum in multiball, you're dead tonight. THe other team would shoot you. On Night 2? Suicidal. Why bus a buddy (mollie) for town cred if it's multiball and you've just convinced the other scumteam that you're a cop? If you're opposite scumteam to mollie, you've just outted yourself as a powerful scum power role and they'll shoot you. You're town, not just for the claim but for the timing and the manner you carried it out.

-kuribo