In post 2601, Ankamius wrote:If Flubber flips scum like I expect, then I believe I have a complete solve.
Xtoxm + Nimueh would be my choices for his partners.
If one is wrong, skitter30 is a likely substitute if I'm reading the tris wagon correctly (which is somewhat stretched, which is why I'm not confident in this slot being scum).
The one thing I'm suspicious of with this solve is how long the flubber/Xtoxm slots are towards the end of the nmsa wagon for so long, but it's explainable by urap2s read shift and Flubber pushing Urap2 immediately afterwards, I could see this as an attempt at damage control to distance.
In post 2604, Ankamius wrote:Also of note is that the original NMSA wagon is the only time that all three of them aren't voting different people or unvoted entirely
Based on how scattered all the votes were in general even when there was a concentrated push on 1-2 slots, and considering they all never voted together even at the end of the day 1 wagons, that's indicative to me that there's something here
I believe tris is town and the wagon was mostly town lead (barring skitter, I think the unvote was a mistake if she was scum here)
Succinct wouldn't be scum with this
Neither would Chara
Nor xRECKONERx
Elbirn is probtown
It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.
Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.
It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.
Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.
It's a high information high scum equity lynch
What is that scum agenda?
1. I suspect scum have been mostly following town pushes overall rather than pushing their own, this explains all the disproportionately large amount of small wagons that keep popping up all over the place
2. Wagons tend to stall out and the majority of wagons slowly slip into nothingness when they are no longer in the spotlight, this indicates 'lazy' play where there isn't a wholly dominant force controlling the wagons and when/where they are placed
3. The amount of wagons that keep popping up is large enough in amount that show scum are most likely staying on separate wagons
Flubbernugget isn't making any particular pushes on his own that he intends to go anywhere.
Flubbernugget is mostly following lynches.
Considering my scumread on Nimueh, the two of them were never on the same wagon throughout day one. Nimueh doesn't as much follow the other conditions, but Nimueh was also absent for more than half of day one, so that isn't indicative.
That's two down.
Flubbernuggets only 'push' is on the Xtoxm slot, and a cursory look shows that Urap2 isn't making any particular push that goes anywhere, the only time he votes with Flubber or Nimueh is on the original NMSA wagon, and I have to remember that Urap2 made a pretty dramatic shift in reads to account for him suddenly leaving the wagon.
And now here's the kicker:
Nimueh knew that I had a good record of reading her.
I was scumreading Flubbernugget.
I was scumreading urap2
Urap2 suddenly switches his reads to match mine nearly word for word.
That looks a lot less town from this particular light.
In post 2636, Ankamius wrote:Skitter30 somewhat matches this trend, I think if she was scum she reversed off of tris because she knew she would get heat for that wagon.
Plus there's just some bizarre stuff about her that I've been noting all game that just doesn't quite add up.
It doesn't fit as perfectly as the above three, but it's still notable.
NMSA, again, is pick #5 predominantly because it makes sense for scum to want to double push him down if he got that much heat early on to get free towncred and to reduce the odds of NMSA getting them caught. Plus it makes more sense for Urap2 and Flubber to make the actions they did after the wagon started falling apart if they wanted to recover from that failed gambit.
In post 2640, Ankamius wrote:Does xtoxm give you more info or do you think he's scummier
It's a case of I feel like I should be trying to sort the entire playerlist this game and sorting you directly is less useful towards that end than sorting other players and fitting you somewhere into where that takes me
That's essentially why I was able to build a solve after only sorting two players as scum
this is going to take a lot less effort to push through and I don't want to put enough effort in to push Flubber to a lynch today despite feeling like it's objectively the best play, since I don't think it's healthy for the gamestate to risk flaring myself up
so I'll just sit in the backseat and just look to shield mislynches if things go off track
In post 2810, Ankamius wrote:I want Flubber mainly because I think Xtoxm obvscummed and I want to flip my other scumread so I have another day phase to make sure my theories are sound or at least that I'm not missing anything huge
I've duly noted that there's a lot of support for both Flubber and Xtoxm but everyone has their own idea for the third, that's going to be my main focus I think since I expect I have a max of 2 scum pegged if past experience is to be trusted
In post 2813, Ankamius wrote:I'd rather not go down that rabbit hole until I have the second flip to work off of
it's frustrating to do a bunch of analysis based on having flips I don't have and then getting those flips only for it to be what I wasn't expecting it to
In post 2818, Ankamius wrote:the reason I was townreading urap2 so strongly is scummy from this newer perspective, creature
Skitter has been sorting
Chara has been sorting
Nimueh has been sorting
Reck has been sorting
Creature I will trust the townreads of
Succinct has been sorting
tris has been sorting
NMSA is just... there
Elbirn had a sketchy return to the thread
Flubber has had really wooden contributions that make no sense
Xtoxm is just... wild flailing
In post 2964, Ankamius wrote:I honestly think there's good odds that the game is just solved already
These wagons have been stalled long enough that it is very unlikely for the slots that have consistently been around and hunting to be scum (otherwise one would have won out I bet, specifically keeping up this charade to no practical effect is ridiculous scum strategy)
Of the three slots that were wagoned, two have showed signs of caving under the pressure, while the third (tris) never has once
Just another aspect of the gamestate that supports scum being in the mostly lurker slots
Whenever I feel like I have a confident solve in a game and enough scum properly pegged to be able to push town into a win, I'm always much more afraid of getting NKed and town being thrown off track without me there than of getting my scumreads lynched
I don't want to get these lynches because I forced people to sheep me with no other choice
I want town to be set up to be able to get them without me there at all
And having someone who can hold a lot of influence over the rest of the town fall prey to a paranoic mindset as a solve is being put into effect is one of the single worst scenarios I can think of
I want to avoid that scenario much more than I want either of these lynches
In post 2981, Ankamius wrote:And if I don't deliver a scum today then I'm probably just going to mostly sheep tbh, because if I'm that far off then my reads are never going to improve
idk how we can reconcile our playstyle differences because I hold the opinion that the information is 5x more valuable than the scumflip
so I'm not sure explaining more is worth bothering with
In post 3028, Ankamius wrote:one thing I will say though is that I'm not actually trying to find the entire team, right now
I'm trying to find the method that will allow me to deduce the entire team (or at least narrow it down enough that I can focus entirely on getting town on the same page) in the most efficient way
and currently that way is by flipping flubbernugget
this is the best approach I can take with this game, I can't do the casing judge-by-actions thing because I literally cannot think that way and the years I spent trying was when I was horrible at this, so
the problem with it is that I've had to take extra liberties with it so I had to gamble all my credibility on having a good lead on the first try, so if it fails then I'm effectively sunk and it's not worth trying to build a second one, this playerlist won't trust me with that a second time and I don't have the tools available to convince you all the way you would need to be convinced otherwise
In post 3036, Xtoxm wrote:ank has already positioned to go after me if flub flips town and people are saying they wont reconsider anything on a townflip
so what is the fucking point
You would be correct if I hadn't pointed out quite a few times that I was putting all my credibility on the like with the Flubber lynch and that I would rethink everything upon him flipping town, which by the way close to nobody has acknowledged other than the other slot you are also scumreading, skitter.
But yes keep lying to suit your needs and avoid doing any real work on making your scumreads accountable or really anything to try to move the game forward, Xtoxm. It reads a lot more like you're trying to damage control a shitty situation to throw a fucking tantrum and OMGUS all the slots pushing you the hardest rather than try to town the fuck up and try to convince us to look elsewhere.
And saying I'm tunneled isn't an excuse, Elbirn has already done it and it took remarkably little effort from him to do so. Your response to this pressure
is
not
town.
In post 3053, Ankamius wrote:Flubber has had very lackluster posting, has posted literally nothing the last few days (ftr this points to Flubber being the scum of the two if these wagons are TvS), has generically responded with discrediting-style statements towards the suspicion on him, and really hasn't been making any counterpushes or trying to dismantle the wagon on him at all.
That's not necessarily scum by itself, but the way the gamestate is evolving around him makes aggressive uselessness a strong strategy in this situation.
My position here is shaky. There's a lot of support of these two wagons individually but there's little overall cohesion and the rest of the players that really haven't already hopped on are very unlikely to.
Why would Flubber need to do anything when the wagon on him is already stalled? All he needs to do is not say anything too scummy and he's already set to be released from being today's lynch. The support against the wagons is not going to get higher than it already is without a huge centralized push as it is until it gets too close to deadline. Plus my influence is actually waning over time, and there is the very real threat that if it gets low enough, the wagons will dissipate if for no better reason because I'm trying to lead them.
In post 3054, Ankamius wrote:I'm not entirely sure who the third is here, my best guess is they're somebody trying to subtly shift away from this dichotomy, but I can't point to a specific person atm
In post 3055, Ankamius wrote:Plus I can see scum adopting this low morale type of strategy in a game where there's obvtowns popping up and there's no nightkill to deal with them.
That's actually a big reason why I'm really suspicious of the Xtoxm slot, his predecessor put in a lot of raw effort at the start of the game and I can see someone who was in a good spot get really discouraged at how town were starting to get their shit together, only one of them was looking town enough to escape the town's wrath for a while, and the other two were not getting... well, anywhere really.
Xtoxm having no presence the entire game.
Flubber feeling really wooden and pushing like he doesn't really care.
I could see a few other slots fitting this general trend, too. Tris and Elbirn are the closest fits that I can see right now, maybe NMSA too.
Actually now that I think about it, it makes sense from a flubber+xtoxm+NMSA team
In post 3123, Ankamius wrote:my credibility is shot no matter what happens so me trying to lead at any point is effectively useless
my only option left is to make the plays that create the highest possible odds of town getting their shit together
and currently that's just getting a lynch through
Here you go nim
Here's the majority of my solving and theory posts today
Thanks for that but I was looking specifically for what info we got from the Brigitte flip, because that would really help me to understand this a lot better. Anyway, sorry for that “bitter” comment earlier. I do get it but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating.
I don’t recall her sr almost the entire playerlist.
Brigitte was also pretty likely town unlike Xtoxm rn.
Yes and who you also pretty much townlocked. I was pretty much null on her right before the flip and if you check out the Flubber posts I quoted earlier, I can see similarities between his reasons for sr urap2 and Xtoxm’s more recent posting.
Wow really? There’s very few players I’d blacklist and none who are currently alive in this game. But yeah if he flips town, his play here is objectively horrible - for me not anywhere closet to blacklist worthy though but to each their own I guess.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:39 pm
by Nimueh
In post 3271, Xtoxm wrote:sorry elbirn
you were the only person here that wasnt anti fun to play with
Oh c’mon, now I’m getting slightly annoyed. You have to take some responsibility for your play here. You were acting objectively scummy, irrespective of your flip. Do you think posting a gazillion times, “scum will stomp”, helpful in any way?
@Elbirn, I am obvtown here based on the
conviction
I’ve demonstrated in my posts. Yes I do definitely get tilted when I am wrongly sr but it is conviction over emotions, which is the best way to sort me, that’s why I’m so surprised that Ank can’t tell the difference here.
le sigh
that's 2/2 selfhammers
ngl think this is flipping town too
Just because Brigitte self-hammered and flipped town, doesn’t mean Xtoxm will too. I tend to read most self-hammers as NIA - scummy. We’ll find out soon enough anyway.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:51 pm
by Xtoxm
you death tunneled me in another recently completed game
and youve done the exact same thing here
its not fun being death tunneled
i dont think you would make the same mistake again which is why i sr you here
you can always point at something and say i could have played better
this was very much my town game tho
im a universal sr here and my lynch was inevitable so the self hammer really means f all
as shown by nmsa trying to hammer me anyway
if youre town you should work on lynching ank, there are contradictions all over her play
like pushing only lurkers while claiming a sr on you, when i never endgame here
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:20 pm
by Xtoxm
also, instead of blaming townies for "not being town enough"
you should blame yourself for not reading them better
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:26 pm
by Chara
In post 3288, Xtoxm wrote:also, instead of blaming townies for "not being town enough"
you should blame yourself for not reading them better
was trying to read you, you stonewalled me because i was scumreading you and never spoke to me. that's not my fault.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:27 pm
by Chara
and if you reply "i don't talk to scum" one more fucking time. the hypocrisy is ridiculous.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:27 pm
by Chara
i'm sick of this game.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:36 pm
by Chara
i still don't understand why tris isn't scum here, Ank. i know i didn't switch my vote either so it's on me as much as you but your strong belief she's town is still something i've never really understood.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:39 pm
by Nimueh
In post 3287, Xtoxm wrote:you death tunneled me in another recently completed game
and youve done the exact same thing here
its not fun being death tunneled
i dont think you would make the same mistake again which is why i sr you here
you can always point at something and say i could have played better
this was very much my town game tho
im a universal sr here and my lynch was inevitable so the self hammer really means f all
as shown by nmsa trying to hammer me anyway
if youre town you should work on lynching ank, there are contradictions all over her play
like pushing only lurkers while claiming a sr on you, when i never endgame here
When did I “deathtunnel” you? If you’re referring to the game I think you are, you eventually made a post - extremely unlikely to ever be coming from scum. I really think Ank is town though but I’m thinking now you may be a mislynch. Why couldn’t you have made this kind of post earlier? This is the towniest sounding post, you’ve made in awhile. In a different game, you only pushed specific slots. It was the fact that you were pretty much sr almost everyone that made me suspicious.
The only slot that I’m extremely confident on is Creature but Ank has done the whole informational thing as town before. She had it wrong but she sounds very similar here to that game.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:40 pm
by Chara
and i'm not of the game. two self-hammers just suck regardless of the circumstances and i hate Xtoxm's blaming of the other players and yes, specifically his treatment of me. for someone complaining that it sucks to be scumread he decided i was scum and then ignored/explictly declined to talk to me or my problems with his slot and just flailed a lot. yeah Xtoxm, sure does suck.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:40 pm
by Chara
*not sick of the game.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:42 pm
by Nimueh
In post 3288, Xtoxm wrote:also, instead of blaming townies for "not being town enough"
you should blame yourself for not reading them better
For example, you called Skitter’s approximately 100 page turn around on your slot, scummy. I asked how it was scummy. You never really explained that. Anyway sorry, if you’re town. :/
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:43 pm
by Chara
In post 3166, Elbirn wrote:My challenge to you is to sort tris and chara
Chara is my secret hail Mary scum read, dont tell them
why can't you read me yet Elbirn
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:46 pm
by Chara
i missed a lot more pages than i thought. hold on.
Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:46 pm
by Nimueh
In post 3292, Chara wrote:i still don't understand why tris isn't scum here, Ank. i know i didn't switch my vote either so it's on me as much as you but your strong belief she's town is still something i've never really understood.
She could be but then either scum was in anti-spew on D1 or I’m somehow misreading the VCA but Xtoxm townflip definitely doesn’t make her vote on him look great. I’d say NMSA’s and Tris’ Xtoxm votes look the worst and the reasons, the most suspect.