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Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 6:20 am
by Bingle
It’s a trap!
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 6:28 am
by Bingle
EC why did you think today was potential lylo last night?
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 6:52 am
by Eddie Cane
In post 2636, Eddie Cane wrote:
In post 2633, Bingle wrote: In post 2620, Eddie Cane wrote: In post 2606, Vecna wrote:Give scum the hard choice of whether they wanna let him live for another 2 nights
With the current pace of night kills, unless I'm miscounting tomorrow is lylo if we mislynch today...
Press X to Doubt.
2 myslynches to MYLO is insane balance wise, and a two shot vig died last night, so presumably we have fewer KPN now. I'm not sure why you even say this.
4v10
Night 1 there was 3 kp. Night 2 there was 2. Scum get 2 additional traps from MT. Lynch to 9, average 2 kills to 7. lynch to 6, average 2 kills to 4, 4:4 game over. It is possible there will be less night kills n4 (1), but its also possible there will be 3 tonight with the extra traps. I don't understand how this concept is complicated.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 6:53 am
by Eddie Cane
I actually believe its pretty likely town has already lost this game even if we hit scum today, which has sapped my desire to care.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 7:23 am
by Morning Tweet
In post 3389, Eddie Cane wrote:
I dont understand why your reads posts have tied Bingle's alignments with BM's.
Bingle not voting for BM + the added 2-shot part of the claim makes me not want to lynch him. I'd prefer the pool of people voting BM, minus ABR.
If I assume Bingle town, i can get Ircher town (reasonably). Vault IC. PK not lying about the trap, hopefully town. BM town. leantown on you. ABR more likely town than the rest of BM wagon. The replacement also doesnt make sense if he was about to win.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 7:25 am
by Morning Tweet
In post 3396, davesaz wrote:MT you said that extra traps would be coming, but from the mod's posts it doesn't look like that happened. Can you explain how you managed to escape a trap without having the consequences that you thought would happen?
Why is this something you're most curious about?
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 7:36 am
by Bingle
In post 3403, Eddie Cane wrote:I actually believe its pretty likely town has already lost this game even if we hit scum today, which has sapped my desire to care.
I think we just have to assume that we haven't and move on from there.
On the plus side, we're pretty close to a 50/50 on guessing scum, so maybe we just need 4 consecutive coin flips.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:06 am
by davesaz
In post 3405, Morning Tweet wrote: In post 3396, davesaz wrote:MT you said that extra traps would be coming, but from the mod's posts it doesn't look like that happened. Can you explain how you managed to escape a trap without having the consequences that you thought would happen?
Why is this something you're most curious about?
I'm not completely certain that it's not scum!you just skating away.
I mean good for town if you're town with a good explanation, not so good if you're scum on the way to a roflstomp.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:08 am
by Titus
In post 3406, Bingle wrote: In post 3403, Eddie Cane wrote:I actually believe its pretty likely town has already lost this game even if we hit scum today, which has sapped my desire to care.
I think we just have to assume that we haven't and move on from there.
On the plus side, we're pretty close to a 50/50 on guessing scum, so maybe we just need 4 consecutive coin flips.
You do realize the VCA queen has entered right. We get one coin flip right, our odds go up exponentially.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:10 am
by Morning Tweet
we also have to deal with the whole "scum can kill us en masse" thing. but we'll get there when we get there
also hi titus !!
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:13 am
by Titus
Through 1.6 I suspect Bingle and BM.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:13 am
by Morning Tweet
In post 3407, davesaz wrote: In post 3405, Morning Tweet wrote: In post 3396, davesaz wrote:MT you said that extra traps would be coming, but from the mod's posts it doesn't look like that happened. Can you explain how you managed to escape a trap without having the consequences that you thought would happen?
Why is this something you're most curious about?
I'm not completely certain that it's not scum!you just skating away.
I mean good for town if you're town with a good explanation, not so good if you're scum on the way to a roflstomp.
im a bat with a trick or two up her sleeve. i can tell you that i knew the whole time there were not going to be any extra traps. check my messages at the end of d3 about the deadline
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:17 am
by Titus
1.12 looks really bad for Bingle
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:18 am
by Bingle
{Morning Tweet, Eddie Cane, davesaz, BBmolla, pisskop, Titus, Firebringer} Contains 1-4 scum from a public PoV. I'm going to assume 0-1 erroneous clears for now. Definitely want to lynch outside of the clears. Thinking a little bit more, it would make sense thematically that the one with control of the loudspeakers would be Jigsaw, but I think scum with that role would be too self conscious about it to self confirm immediately. Maybe?
I'm still wigged the fuck out by MT, but I think I'm alone there. Dave needs to firm up his claim and out results. He shouldn't have been allowed to not do that yesterday with the shitty ass soft. We also probably need a full massclaim at this point, especially if we're in likely MYLO.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:18 am
by Titus
Firebringer is a decent lynch based on 1.13
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:26 am
by Titus
Morning Tweet is likely town 3.1
VaultDweller is likely scum
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:27 am
by Morning Tweet
I asked Fire who he thought was going to be trapped last night. He listed "Ircher, TSE, and possibly ABR". Interesting that he thought there werent going to be very many traps, even though town should have thought thered be 5.
On the flip side though, that might be overthinking. He was probably just listing townreads. He still may be scum though
Pedit: Titus, Vault is an innocent child
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:28 am
by Titus
Why did davesaz be a flash wagon in 3.5 that vanished as almost solid town
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:28 am
by Titus
Thanks for the correction.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:30 am
by Titus
Pisskop and BM need scrutiny.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:31 am
by Titus
Morning, what do you think of my suspect pool just eyeballing the VCs?
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:33 am
by Morning Tweet
In post 3417, Titus wrote:Why did davesaz be a flash wagon in 3.5 that vanished as almost solid town
We PoEd dave as scum. we got some votes
and then dave was all like "You fools! I've been softing godfather cop this whole time by being silent! never lynch a cop claim!"
and that worked and we moved on
I think that's the one anyway
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:34 am
by Titus
In post 3421, Morning Tweet wrote: In post 3417, Titus wrote:Why did davesaz be a flash wagon in 3.5 that vanished as almost solid town
We PoEd dave as scum. we got some votes
and then dave was all like "You fools! I've been softing godfather cop this whole time by being silent! never lynch a cop claim!"
and that worked and we moved on
I think that's the one anyway
Doesn't Drixx's flip suggest a deathy like combination though?
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:35 am
by Bingle
I mean... He also said that he may or may not be able to clear Drixx on being the godfather and then never brought it up again and didn't actually claim, but yeah, that's the rough gist of what happened.
Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:36 am
by Morning Tweet
BM is town. He made a bad choice last night, and scum are quickwagoning him because his choice was so scummy it seems impossible for town. But on further evaluation...
They left me and Ircher alive in hopes we'd help lynch him. Your slot also wants to lynch BM. Town!BM totally makes that choice too. He's quite the individual
Pisskop can possibly be scum.
Firebringer, BB, and dave are prime candidates. Dont know which one to choose though