Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Menalque]

So idk

If it’s a gambit to elim me and then play for the win tomorrow, fair play tbh

That seems weird, but so does A LOT of shit this game

And if my reads are wrong then probably the best player on site atm was just as wrong as I was, so I can live with that if it’s the standard for comparison this game

[Something_Smart]

Do you think the team is exactly dave/peta/lilith then?

[Infinity 324]

Mena I feel more comfortable voting peta today than lilith

[petapan]

that gambit falls apart like a house of cards if i get eliminated and pits me against several people who were generally townread, it would be a completely fucking stupid move as scum

plus, like, i'd just fucking claim cop because i know i'd have to claim cop:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=22791
https://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/AtaZQGftFnExC

right now things are fairly in town's favor, with us needing 4 mislynches to win. however, SO LONG AS YOU STAY ALIVE (and being able to claim cop should help with this), i can get away with a universal backup claim, and claim vengeful which means i won't get lynched before 3-way lylo, which means all we really need to do is keep you from getting lynched that day and lynching anyone else

if you have to claim cop, don't clear a scummy player, clear someone who's not getting lynched anyway or someone we have to kill anyway - like arugula, he's a vig, decent choice to clear if you get run up since he's not getting lynched anyway most likely (i'm just hoping to run him up so we can potentially force a claim)

peta
08-21-2012
10:19 PM ET (US)
like, i don't even know what to say here, we know we shot hoopla so it's nonsense reasoning, just say something because arugula is convinced you have inside information. would be a good idea to fakeclaim cop, also.

[petapan]

Mena I feel more comfortable voting peta today than lilith

how confident are you, tough guy?

[Infinity 324]

Not very tbh

[petapan]

good answer

[Menalque]

Do you think the team is exactly dave/peta/lilith then?

Idk man, maybe?

Could be that lilith got a save on me and it’s someone else in her place tho

[Menalque]

Like, here’s the problem

Lilith is confirmed JK

TGP confirmed that cop/redirector is in the game

If peta is town and is trueclaiming, then 1s watcher has to be in (NM, me, infinity, S_S) seeing as 1s watcher has to be in (infinity, S_S, dave) at this point and one of you would have CC’d if it wasn’t either of you

[Menalque]

Sorry, I mixed that up

Redirector has to be in* not 1s watcher

[Menalque]

N_M who did JV neighbourise N1?

[Menalque]

Other mechanical things;

Lilith claims to have JK’d me N1

We know there was no kill on N1

Nobody is claiming doctor at this point, so there is probably not a doctor in the game or if they are they’re throwing and we can’t do anything about that

[Menalque]

Scum went for informed, so if the only missing role is doc/rb then they knew that all along

[Menalque]

Oh, and there’s a confirmed neighbouriser in the game (from dunn) that NM is claiming

[Not_Mafia]

N_M who did JV neighbourise N1?

Uncrowned

[Menalque]

Was there anything in the PT? Also, did you talk to dunn at all in the other PT?

[Not_Mafia]

Was there anything in the PT? Also, did you talk to dunn at all in the other PT?

Jackson and Uncrowned both had as their second most confident scum read. Jackson biggest scumread was Peta, Uncrowned's was TGP

[Not_Mafia]

Was there anything in the PT? Also, did you talk to dunn at all in the other PT?

Jackson and Uncrowned both had YOU* as their second most confident scum read. Jackson biggest scumread was Peta, Uncrowned's was TGP

[Menalque]

Uncrowned’s biggest SR was TGP?

[Not_Mafia]

Yes

[Menalque]

And that didn’t change at all after TGP flipped town?

[Not_Mafia]

Uncrowned just mourned his inevitable death night 2

[Menalque]

Why did he think his death was inevitable?

[Not_Mafia]

Jackson mentioned his draft position, Uncrowned didn't really elaborate

[Hoopla]

Ahhhhhh this game feels like a loss tbh

i was thinking about this game this morning, and it's starting to feel that way to me too. we have too many fractured viewpoints of the game that i'm finding hard to synthesise, and in order to win from here, we need a cohesive enough town coalition with enough of an overlap in reads. there are some team distributions of scum that will be unwinnable, so i want to choose a pathway that optimises the amount of possible universes we can win in.

intuitively, i want to work with infinity/menalque based on their play, but i feel like i can't trust my ability to discern behavioural tells at a better frequency that some mechanical considerations can offer. like, when it comes down to it, i'd gamble on N_M being town over a tonal town read like menalque, and to a lesser extent dave over infinity. i feel like i'm also willing to lose to universes where lilith is scum too.

so, working backwards:

if i assume N_M, dave & lilith being town, this group all seems to be on the same page favouring a menalque execution. if menalque is scum, i think we have a good chance of winning the game or at least taking it deep, because there is a cohesion of views there. we can win a lot of possible branches of the gametree where menalque is scum. in actuality, lilith blocking scum's NK is a pretty significant percent chance of being the explanation for N1.

^the above seems like a viable way forward because we have good cohesion of reads with the people who are likely town from a mechanical perspective.

if i go the other route and work backwards from a reads-based way filtering the game, i'd want to work with menalque and infinity. problem is, menalque is hellbent on lilith, and infinity is happy just sheeping me. so even if this network of people are town, we probably still end up losing the game, because we don't have a good enough cohesive idea of how to win from here. i just don't really trust either menalque's or infinity's vision of the gamestate to go in blind with them.

i don't know. maybe the lack of clear direction is making me overly pessimistic, but i don't see how we win if menalque is town. too many prob-townies view him as scum, that even if we don't eliminate him today, he will be an easy LYLO mis-elim for scum.

i just don't see a way the town can win any universes where menalque is town, so it seems prudent to try and win the section of the gametree where menalque is scum, as we actually do have a good shot of winning in these branches.

so, working from the starting assumption that menalque is scum, who else is scum in this universe?

i'm ruling out dave and N_M for claim reasons, and it feels like peta's interactions with menalque have been far too nuanced and theatrical today. it's hard to see that as a bus.

infinity has good partner equity with menalque (he jumped on my push on SS quite easily with no original thought), and when you view the game from a menalque-scum angle that is suspicious timing. SS and BB sitting back while this whole thing rages on makes for good partner equity too.

so, menalque + two of infinity/SS/BB seems like the solve if menalque is scum.