Mafiascum.net

In post 3420, Gamma Emerald wrote:

In post 3403, ulyana wrote:

In post 3400, Ydrasse wrote:

In post 3397, ulyana wrote:

In post 3395, Ydrasse wrote:we

why do you think toogeloo is currently alive if town?

i don’t really think he is and i said that dunn/toog was s/s theatre s:

thumbs up

would like everyone's opinion on this!!!

idrc about interactions, I think I have a potentially better metric to narrow down the scums
Infinity, I think you should reread the True Love game we played together, because I unfortunately think your play is following that track again which might mean your death here, but I'll do my best to ensure the scum come after.

this feels so much like a pocketing post, although i can't remember the last time i've seen pocketing so idk lol

In post 3421, Gypyx wrote:

In post 3412, ulyana wrote:but... why wouldn't scum!dunn just shoot town!toogeloo? instead of 50/50? and after toogeloo made it clear was going to spin barrel if town why wouldn't scum!dunn spin the barrel instead of scum claiming?

well i dunno, maybe the bullet was later down the barrel and toog spinning made things go unpredicatble (actually that's a really likely theory)

or he wanted toog to go first after spinning the barrel, cuz it has better mathematical odds if i recall my calculations correctly

the scums chose where the bullet went

so one would expect scum!dunn to simply put it in the first chamber and shoot town!toogeloo, or if for some reason weighed being townread as more important than being alive, to simply spin the barrel and try to look town

not scum claim

and the math is even

In post 3416, SirCakez wrote:Infinity has been a literal wet napkin all game

The FUCK???

In post 3421, Gypyx wrote:

In post 3412, ulyana wrote:but... why wouldn't scum!dunn just shoot town!toogeloo? instead of 50/50? and after toogeloo made it clear was going to spin barrel if town why wouldn't scum!dunn spin the barrel instead of scum claiming?

well i dunno, maybe the bullet was later down the barrel and toog spinning made things go unpredicatble (actually that's a really likely theory)

or he wanted toog to go first after spinning the barrel, cuz it has better mathematical odds if i recall my calculations correctly

it doesn't, optimal play from a fresh spin is 50/50 although there's a chance someone could misplay and hand the other player an advantage, which is the only reason i can think for him spinning immediately after toog

personally i think in that scenario if i have a teammate with a gun and a townie in the other spot i have them openwolf and just shoot the opponent with the first chambered shot because it still means town wastes a phase eliminating them

In post 3425, Gypyx wrote:this feels so much like a pocketing post, although i can't remember the last time i've seen pocketing so idk lol

why would he be trying to pocket someone on the cusp of elimination

In post 3426, ulyana wrote:not scum claim

i think it's pretty clear that dunn didn't think he was scum claiming with that post no matter toog's alignment.

In post 3187, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3180, SirCakez wrote:hm ok
who do you have as scum besides unwnd right now? I just re-ISOed you and you definitely have done more than I remembered but I have like
zero grasp on where you actually want this game to go
you feel very go-with-the-flowy

i don't have strong scumreads yeah

{taly, gamma}
{ydrasse, ulyana}
{peta, skitt, cakez}
{toog, dunn}
{saber, gypyx, dwlee, unwnd}

i have too many townreads and most of this day phase i've been trying to sort out who of the bottom tier is the worst

and whenever i vote someone they start townposting or there's a reason to unvote so ahh

like unwnd just started townposting

ahh

How much have your reads changed since this point, if at all? How would you rank the players in an exact order of towniest to scummiest rn?

In post 3429, petapan wrote:personally i think in that scenario if i have a teammate with a gun and a townie in the other spot i have them openwolf and just shoot the opponent with the first chambered shot because it still means town wastes a phase eliminating them

!!!!!!!!!

and we don't even know that we were going to get that elimination phase right

like what if it was another similar game to the duel right

then there's a chance that dunn lives for another another event even though everyone knows is scum

and and and and

they still have a sabotage

like how would 50/50 ever be optimal when simply being alive is so strong

In post 3426, ulyana wrote:the scums chose where the bullet went

so one would expect scum!dunn to simply put it in the first chamber and shoot town!toogeloo, or if for some reason weighed being townread as more important than being alive, to simply spin the barrel and try to look town

not scum claim

and the math is even

well, if it is S/S, you're telling me the choice scum goes with is that they have one of their members scumclaim, have the other act rational, and hope that the one that scumclaimed dies?

and i might be dumb but it isn't right? like, it's 1/6 odds, then 1/5, then 1/4, then 1/3 etc... there's a Vsauce vid about that

In post 3430, petapan wrote:why would he be trying to pocket someone on the cusp of elimination

excellent question

idk

In post 3434, Gypyx wrote:

In post 3426, ulyana wrote:the scums chose where the bullet went

so one would expect scum!dunn to simply put it in the first chamber and shoot town!toogeloo, or if for some reason weighed being townread as more important than being alive, to simply spin the barrel and try to look town

not scum claim

and the math is even

well, if it is S/S, you're telling me the choice scum goes with is that they have one of their members scumclaim, have the other act rational, and hope that the one that scumclaimed dies?

and i might be dumb but it isn't right? like, it's 1/6 odds, then 1/5, then 1/4, then 1/3 etc... there's a Vsauce vid about that

i thought of other potential explanations for this but everyone in pt seemed to think was very unlikely so, yeah

no they're all 1/6

In post 3436, ulyana wrote:no they're all 1/6

cause like, 1/6 first shooter dies, then 1/5 times out of the 5/6 that's left from before, then 1/4 out of the 4/5 out of the 5/6, and so forth

they're all 1/6

shiki do you think it was s/s ?

what's exactly the "it"?

also okay, guess i really should consider leaving my math studies lol

In post 3432, Gamma Emerald wrote:How much have your reads changed since this point, if at all? How would you rank the players in an exact order of towniest to scummiest rn?

{gamma}
{taly, ydrasse, ulyana}
{cakez, skitt, toog}
{peta, gooey, dwlee}
{gypyx, saber}

i guess this is it, ordered from t->s within the tiers. toog moved up from good posting in the pt, dwlee moved up after thinking about it more because i think i believe their scumread on me, unwnd i felt was being genuine in ex. his interaction with taly towards the end of the last phase, he was trying to solve even though it looked like he was gonna die.

oh and i got cold feet on peta at the last minute

In post 3433, ulyana wrote:like how would 50/50 ever be optimal when simply being alive is so strong

eh you're probably right here tbh

In post 60, Infinity 324 wrote:VOTE: dunn pooky feels towny to me i don't like that vote

In post 185, Infinity 324 wrote:hi cakez

i agree with dunn's approach. i think any other approach involves some form of mod WIFOM that's probably not great to get into

In post 209, Infinity 324 wrote:Dunn is your pooky vote serious? if so why

In post 1266, Infinity 324 wrote:VOTE: galron cause i don't like either of the other wagons, tbf i'm terrible at reading dunn but the fact that he's getting wagoned d1 is probably +town

In post 1940, Infinity 324 wrote:like maybe the scumteam is dunn/galron/ydrasse/ceph but probably not right

idk who i should be looking at that i'm not

In post 2067, Infinity 324 wrote:hmm

VOTE: gypyx

i feel like gamma being town makes prism slot a lot more likely to be scum

this or ydrasse are my favorite votes atm

other thoughts:

i think cakez is decently towny

i've liked dunn's posting so far but pooky scumread him and pooky also had a really good tmi-based scumread on dunn in silent star 3

In post 2115, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 2104, Dunnstral wrote:To relitigate:

Somebody said that Gamma was trying to get into the chair
I said that they already had a chance to get into the chair if they wanted to
Somebody said that they wouldn't self vote into the chair because they wanted to look town

Even if point 3 is correct, that doesn't make anything tmi (or even wrong... the first point never said anything about looking town, the third point expanded on assumptions that were unsaid

this is fair

In post 2268, Infinity 324 wrote:@dunn who is scum (besides cakez)

In post 2326, Infinity 324 wrote:i agree with unwnd's read on dunn

In post 2332, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 2329, unwnd wrote:I don't know your own experience with Dunn but I do know we were in RPG together where I defended you (correctly) against a Ydra/Dunn team where I finally had the gumption to vote Dunn out. Are you seeing lack of parallel from that?

I mean yeah, I feel like the pattern you pointed out is generally true for dunn

In post 3187, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3180, SirCakez wrote:hm ok
who do you have as scum besides unwnd right now? I just re-ISOed you and you definitely have done more than I remembered but I have like
zero grasp on where you actually want this game to go
you feel very go-with-the-flowy

i don't have strong scumreads yeah

{taly, gamma}
{ydrasse, ulyana}
{peta, skitt, cakez}
{toog, dunn}
{saber, gypyx, dwlee, unwnd}

i have too many townreads and most of this day phase i've been trying to sort out who of the bottom tier is the worst

and whenever i vote someone they start townposting or there's a reason to unvote so ahh

like unwnd just started townposting

ahh

fwiw here's infinity's ISO on dunn. it feels bad.

the early vote on him in RVS-ish territory feels like it could be distancing, the thing scum do in early game where they are overly self conscious and call out unimportant stuff. the vote transitioning into asking him about it feels like looking for an excuse to get away from it. from there, she moves more toward soft defending him, saying him getting wagoned makes him more likely to be town, saying she liked his posting but hedging with a reference to pooky, and then piggybacking off unwnd's initial dunn read to have him as town, he only really drops in the reads later in the day but no visible reason for doing so and he's kept out of the bottom tier of reads


this is all stuff i quoted in the PT although i didn't fully flesh it out because i didn't need to

healthy reminder that sabotages aren't necessarily public and we don't know for sure that a no sabotage happened

In post 3439, Ydrasse wrote:shiki do you think it was s/s ?

i think more likely than not, having thought about it an obsessive amount, it just seems like the optimal play would be pretty clear and the optimal play for trying to be townread also pretty clear? so only way i can make sense of it really is for it to have been s/s

In post 3445, Gypyx wrote:healthy reminder that sabotages aren't necessarily public and we don't know for sure that a no sabotage happened

i mean, what possible sabotage do you think has happened then?

In post 3447, ulyana wrote:

In post 3445, Gypyx wrote:healthy reminder that sabotages aren't necessarily public and we don't know for sure that a no sabotage happened

i mean, what possible sabotage do you think has happened then?

if you don't have one to point to i think operating under assumption it hasn't happened is best

Personally, I think Scum put the bullet in chamber 3 hoping I wouldn't Spin it right away. Putting the bullet in slot one makes Dunn look worse (I flip town here, scum knows that). Dunn has to make an excuse as to why he doesn't want to spin the Barrel hoping I don't spin the second I get it.