SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Krazy]

This also explains why pun won't shoot guac by the way. If we lynch the worst, and he promises to shoot guac, then we fully eliminate the scum team and then he gets lynched the next day lol

You can answer your own questions from here Sho

[Shoshin]

And lolz at me being scum. I would just quickhammer if I was. Wagon on me and another at L-1.

Krazy's defense sounds a lot like this. "Oh, I didn't hammer Sho, so I'm tonw." It's bullshit. Like, I don't know how to make this sort of thing clearer. Choosing to lynch Shepard over me on D4 doesn't clear Krazy, and claiming that you're clear because you didn't hammer is more scummy than towny.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Krazy

[guacamole]

I have been very busy at work. I'm very aware that the lack of activity makes me look bad, but I'm not going spout a bunch of shallow junk that does nothing but potentially hurt town.

[Krazy]

VOTE: Krazy

Just to be totally clear, you currently find it more plausible that:
a) scum have a confirmed two-shot vote manipulator and that
b) scum used vote manipulation to force a bus
c) scum used vote manipulation to force a bus OVER a lynch on NI town

rather than that

a) the worst is scum
b) he didn't actually want to lynch C.Shep, because C.Shep is on his team
c) absolutely nothing remarkable happened yesterday in terms of how scum play and there were no unusual night actions

Just making sure we're clear on which scenarios you find to be plausible.

[Shoshin]

To be clear, scum didn't force a bus.

Shepard's lynch was inevitable.

[guacamole]

Actually, I'll amend that. I do have some things that I've been thinking that are worth posting. I'd rather be able to link some evidence, but might as well do what I can without links. These are in the order I'm thinking of people not necessarily in order of the actual read.

Punreader - towny looking but I understand the potential for SK claiming vig.
Vaxkiller - there was a bunch of back and forth with Shepard on the vig attempt there failing. Has there been a successful vig claimed? Could that have been distancing? Still feels townish more than scum.

Shoshin - I really don't like the tendency to focus solely on digging up dirt (at least in my opinion), vs. a more balanced approach. Doing it on everyone feels like scum shopping for a plausible mislynch. All that said, there isn't really any strong reason that it's more likely to be scum shopping for mislynches than it is for town to be unsure who the scum are and trying to solve. I'd want to see if there is anyone Shoshin isn't digging on, or is digging up real dirt and choosing to ignore. I'm susceptible to bias toward thinking people pushing me are scum. I really want to call it scum. But I can't really do that, gotta say this read is a firm

don't know

.

Krazy - I've seen a role with some superficial similarity that was town. The usage seems relatively town motivated.

DeasVail - Definitely not cleared by Krazy's action. Not memorable enough to be able to give a shoot from the hip kind of read.

Espeonage - I definitely buy into the interactions with Fire being s/s. Honestly can't say I've read enough for a strong independent read but I'm willing to sheep here -- obviously since that's what i'm doing.

The Worst - I see some of the same shopping for mislynch behavior that I mentioned in Shoshin. I'm less confident about the town motivation angle here.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: DeasVail

[Shoshin]

I'm settling on this for today. Done looking at this until tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

If DV is town, I'd lynch Krazy tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

If scum, lynch Guac.

[Errantparabola]

Votecount 5.5

Espeonage

(2): Punreader, guacamole

the worst

(2): Vaxkiller, Krazy

DeasVail

(1): Shoshin

guacamole

(1): the worst

Krazy

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(1): DeasVail

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-08-17 09:55:00)

[DeasVail]

I'm settling on this for today. Done looking at this until tomorrow.

Do you mean RL day or game day.

If you mean game day, I don’t think this approach is super helpful.

[DeasVail]

VOTE: guacamole

It’s not worth relying on a punreader shot.

[Shoshin]

Who is Guac's partner?

[DeasVail]

I don’t know.

Everyone else has something about them that I consider town enough to make me uncomfortable with lynching them.

You, worst, Espe, Krazy are all options that float around with varying prominence depending on which part of the game I’ve most recently read.

[Shoshin]

It feels like you're putting no effort to find the scum, DV. Why shouldn't we lynch you?

[Shoshin]

Nahdia gave Screen a 0, so I find it hard to believe that Guac's partner is either of the worst, Krazy, or Espe. Krazy and the worst gave Screen a 0. Espe gave him a 2. So, like, most likely partner for Guac is DV. And if DV's town, Guac's probably town and the scum are Krazy and the worst. And if that's not right, then scum pulled some crazy gambit and we're overlooking something.

[DeasVail]

Because I’m town, pretty much.

I would also disagree that I’m putting no effort in. During this game day I have gone back and read over multiple parts of the game and I have put a lot of thought into people’s alignments. Most of my thoughts amount to not much and I have chosen not to detail the whirring of circular thoughts that I have in regards to whether each person is town or scum.

Nonetheless, I am pretty aware of the difficulty in reading me here. I don’t think I am obviously town by any means. Many of my posts and approaches here have been exactly what I would do as scum too. However, I do believe there are aspects to my play and posting here that would indicate I’m town to someone reading me, albeit difficult to pick up on.

My position is that we should lynch guac.
I believe that the reasons I have for wanting to lynch them are shared by others to a significant degree and so at this stage I don’t feel the need to make a more passionate campaign.
I don’t believe I’m in much danger of being lynched currently and so I don’t see a great need to adjust my play solely for readability purposes.

PEdit: I don’t want to assume 100% truthful score claiming

[Shoshin]

You're in much greater danger of being lynched than you imagine, so yes, I think you need to adjust your play for readability purposes.

You saying that you're town isn't a reason not to lynch you, because scum say they're town too. And I don't know that you're town, so what you need to be doing is things that show you're town. If you have thoughts, why aren't you posting them? Why aren't you giving us access to your thought process? What's there to hide? What aspects to your play are towny?

Why wouldn't we assume truthful rankings at this point? The scores we've seen have matched the rankings. And the scum both ranked each other 10, which isn't what you'd expect if scum had lied.

[Vaxkiller]

I dont know if scum say "im town, pretty much"

[Shoshin]

They do. In fact, DV did it as scum in the games I read.

Do you think scum lied about the rankings?

[the worst]

Pun's numbers analysis and my results strongly suggest scum told the truth about rankings.

[Shoshin]

Vote DV?

[the worst]

yeah actually
VOTE: DeasVail