Mini 148: Christmas Mafia! Game Over!

[MeMe]

I know what he's saying here (and I think you should, too)...but just in case

I think I'm correct in assuming that MeMe and I are mafia.

I believe this should read "I think I'm correct in assuming that you're accusing MeMe and I of being mafia."

[Dmi]

Yeah. I meant to include a "you" in between "in" and "assuming".

[HairyMezican]

A quick recap for the replacement:

MeMe claims to be an innocent cop. She also claims that Dmi is innocent. She also claims that DoomCow tried to kill her last night. Stewie also died last night.

Let's assume MeMe is innocent for a second, believe everything she says, and try to figure out everything else.

It stands to reason that there are 2 killing groups, one of which DoomCow is party to (who tried to kill MeMe last night), and the one that killed Stewie. We also have a maximum of 3 scum, because we have 2 people "cleared." Thus we have one of two scenarios:

1 SK, 2 Mafia -
This scenario is the one to be worried about. If you are town, you need to lynch mafia today, if you are SK, it would help you greatly to lynch mafia.

If you are town, then you can outright reject this scenario. You, me, and Dmi would have to all be scum for this scenario to work.

If you are the SK, you can still reject this scenario, as it would require DoomCow and I to be the mafia. If this were the case, one of us would have voted for you when MeMe and Dmi had their votes on you to allow us to win the game.

If you are part of the Mafia, you will probably vote for MeMe anyways, so it really isn't worth delving into.

Thus if we have this critical scenario, it is in your best interest to lynch MeMe.

2 SK -
This scenario is not a lynch right or die scenario. If we lynch MeMe, and she ends up innocent, we will have a pickle on our hands, but with some careful logic, we should be able to determine which 2 among you, me, and DoomCow are the SK's.

If we have this scenario, it is difficult to know who the best lynch is, but MeMe wouldn't be a bad lynch.

[Dmi]

I wouldn't call anything after the first 2 lines there a "recap".

The first scenario seems to assume a lot.

In the second scenario you failed to mention that the only way the town will win after lyncing an innocent is if the 2 killers just happen to kill each other - the chance of which is 1/9.

That "recap" is more biased as Fox News.

If you believe that MeMe is mafia, please vote for me instead.

[MeMe]

I request truth-in-labeling, please. That wasn't a recap...it was propaganda.

I'm finding it extremely interesting that HM can both 1) consider that Xanthe/replacement might be scum and 2) keep his vote on me to make me an easy lynch if (s)he is while advising him that I'm "not a bad lynch."

Why not take your vote off of me if you're at all unsure, HM? To me, it looks a bit like you're worried that the replacement won't feel as certain of your innocence as Xanthe claimed to be -- and that you're talking in a circle to be sure in hopes whoever it is will buy your crap and lynch me (which doesn't make sense if you're town -- but will still result in great relief for me).

Replacement, I'll repeat it again --

DoomCow's scum. I swear it

. I don't know what's wrong with HM, but DoomCow is

absolutely

scum. If he has a partner alive, I can't see that it'd be HM -- I think it has to be you...in which case, you'll lynch me and you'll have HM's obtuseness to thank for the win. If it's not you, please lynch DoomCow. I'd never, ever promise to sit out of upcoming games unless I were sure.

MeMe's a

very bad lynch

. Unless you're mafia or the SK. Then, lynch away. But if you're innocent, please take into account the fact that both Dmi and me (who are accused of being scum together) are requesting that Dmi be lynched first...so even if that's what you believe -- please vote him. I'll switch my vote and I feel *pretty* sure that Dmi would vote himself to save me (which would be a really stupid offer if he was mafia).

Take a close look at HM's posts. Take an especially long, hard look at his entertaining "Santa's gone crazy" theory and see if you want to listen to him at all. When you're done with that, ask yourself why HM's so desperate to lynch me over Dmi -- and then,

please

, explain it to me if you've figured it out.

Regardless, though. If you think I'm scum with Dmi, please vote him. If you think I'm scum with someone else, please vote them. If

you're

scum, I'd really appreciate you not dithering around. Don't even read the thread, just bold your vote for me and let me

out

of this!

[mole]

Please welcome

Dragon Phoenix

as the replacement for Xanthe.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Merry Christmas everybody.

I'll read the thread later this weekend.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, 15 pages is a lot to go through, and Bambi and I are going out in a moment.

It looks like MeMe and Doomcow are the favourites.

Can I ask both of you to point out (or recap) in a post of max 10 lines:
[1] why you are not scum?
[2] why the other is scum?
Others are welcome to chip in.

That will give you something to do while I find the time to read the thread.

[Dmi]

Hmmm. DoomCow just posted in Kill Bill. But not here.

[MeMe]

Maximum 10 lines? Erm...I'll try. I'm Santa Claus, cop.

Day 1, I was the reason that Crola was lynched. I was sure he was scum because he claimed to have blocked me N1 and 1) I

wasn't

blocked N1 and 2) he seemed to want to ignore the fact that, because there were two kills, I was less likely to be scum if he'd truly blocked me -- which, again, he hadn't. I'd put myself out there on Day 1, which I'd never have done if I were lying.

Day 2 we all claimed and I tried to hold back my results (though I had to eventually give in). This was called scummy -- but what no one knew at the time was that I can either investigate OR self-protect. I knew that I'd be a target at night...

especially

if I'd been able to keep from exposing anyone else as innocent. Since I knew I'd survive the night (unless targeted by both groups), I knew this was the right play: to draw fire when, according to the claims, I was the only one who could survive it.

Day 3 we woke up to, as far as we know, still not having gotten rid of a single scum. If that's the case, we've got to have 2 mafia and 1 SK left. I laid a "hail Mary" trap to see if I could figure out a scum. I said that the mod had told me that someone had seen me last night and knows I'm Santa Claus. I "guessed" that the person must be a one-shot cop and that we could confirm each other...and, with my other innocent (Dmi), we'd have a group of three to take down the others. This was a complete fabrication -- but DoomCow fell for it. He claimed to have seen me last night -- which made me

sure

he's scum. I made something up and he said "yeah."

DoomCow's been out as a mason since early in the game (one of his "masons" died Night 1)...which also is a valid explanation for why it's possible we've yet to

catch

scum. We've left the "masons" alone during the day...and the scum have left the "masons" alone at night (which doesn't make

any

sense if all of the masons are innocent -- scum would want to break that up). I dearly hate the trend of scum in mason groups -- it's kinda not fair.

Alright - that was more than 10 lines...hope I don't get penalized.

[HairyMezican]

As I've stated before, I think MeMe's scum because her story just doesn't add up. If Dmi's innocent, as she claims, and we have 2 Mafia + 1SK, as she clearly believes, that means that you and I and DoomCow are all scum.

This doesn't quite add up, because I can't be mafia, or else you would be lynched by now, and you can't be mafia, or MeMe would be lynched by now. That doesn't really leave enough room for the mafia.

That's under 10 lines, right? I win!!

[Dmi]

Well, Doomcow's mafia. What you just said doesn't refute that.

[MeMe]

As I've stated before, I think MeMe's scum because her story just doesn't add up. If Dmi's innocent, as she claims, and we have 2 Mafia + 1SK, as she clearly believes, that means that you and I and DoomCow are all scum.

Just wanted to point out that I was the first one to suggest today that we might have scum already dead and unrevealed. This theory was shot down by Xanthe, who said that mods who do that usually say they're doing that beforehand. So...I do not "clearly believe" that we have 2 mafia and 1 SK left -- as a matter of fact, I've also said more than once that the SK must be dead, if everyone's playing to win today (or that

I

must be the SK -- which HM says just

can't be

despite the fact he said earlier he'd unvote me if I was). Regardless, I do think it's prudent to try for mafia today just in case we've still got two left.

HM -- I

know

DoomCow's scum. If you're not scum, I just don't understand why, why, why you'd want to ignore/misrepresent what I've actually said and pretend that it's impossible for DoomCow to be mafia because he's dear ol' Ma. Either you're really careless or you've got some other agenda that we've not yet considered.

DP - I'm sorry, but I think you're going to have to read the entire thread. If you rely on what's been said lately, there's no way for you to tell whether it "matches" to what's been said earlier.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Thanks for that advice Meme, I just did.

* head explodes *

Things simply do not add up, no matter what assumptions I put in.

One question to MeMe: can you find a reason why a mafia group with mason Doomcow in it would eliminated rival mason Stewie, thus confirming the existence of a second mason group (up to Stewies claim, the assumption candles=townie seemed reasonable). It simply does not make sense to me.

Gut feeling tells me that Doomcow and HM are scum, but MeMe cannot be the second killer, so who amongst the dead (or living...) is the serial killer then??

[MeMe]

DP - I can't explain why Stewie was killed, or even if he really

was

a rival. I've considered (and stated) the possibility that one from each of the mason groups was scum...that could mean that Stewie and DoomCow were together and that Stewie was knocked off by the SK.

As for HM & DoomCow being together, I've got two thoughts --

--As HM has pointed out...if that were the case, why aren't you dead yet? They both had opportunity to place the lynching vote on Xanthe when Dmi & I were both sitting on her.
--But HM's twisted logic sure looks like someone stretching to protect his partner. If HM's telling the truth, the fact is that he doesn't KNOW anything. He's just guessing at scum and he's riding me a little too hard for someone who

should

be unsure. If my claim is believed, I know for sure that Dmi is innocent and am 98% sure that DoomCow's guilty...which makes

my

behavior today reasonable. That HM won't consider my points valid have definitely made me question his agenda...but

not

so much that there's any way I think he's a better lynch than DoomCow.

[Dragon Phoenix]

DoomCow, you have 24 h to show up.....

OK, more thoughts.

MeMe is not a lone killer (given the role blocking action of Coron night 1 with two deaths), and I have difficulty piecing a mafia group together with her in it that makes sense in the game set-up. Also the claim of Santa, after people had already speclated that Santa might be mad would be an incredibly gutsy play.

On the other hand, I could see a game where the town seems overpoweringly strong but has no mafia but just two lone killers, hidden in the two mason groups. Which would make Stewie one of the killers, and either Doomcow or HM the other.

[HairyMezican]

Dragon Pheonix - Are you saying that if MeMe and Dmi are the mafia, you are having trouble identifying what Dmi's role would be that would work with a Santa role? Also, if Stewie were an SK, why does his death description say, "Candle," and why is MeMe claiming that DoomCow tried to kill her?

Dmi - Actually, DoomCow can't be Mafia, if he were, he would've voted for Xanthe in post 344. If we have a mafia, the only combination that still works is you and MeMe.

[HairyMezican]

Sorry for the double post,

Dragon Pheonix - if you think there is a possibility that there is a mafia left, your best vote right now is for MeMe. If you are absolutely sure that we have 2 SK's, then you should vote for DoomCow. I'm not convinced that we have no mafia, and believe MeMe to be the better lynch by far.

MeMe -

I do think it's prudent to try for mafia today just in case we've still got two left.

If we have 2 mafia left, who would they be?

I can't be it, or else either DoomCow or Xanthe would have been lynched.
DP can't be it, or else DoomCow or you would have been lynched.
DoomCow can't be it because Xanthe would have been lynched.
You have to admit, if you think it's prudent to try for mafia today, then you are the prudent lynch at this point.

This is why I've been riding hard on you, if we go with the assumption that there are 2 mafia left, you and Dmi rise high above any other platform.

But HM's twisted logic sure looks like someone stretching to protect his partner

stretching to protect 2 different people? Or more likely, convinced he has caught scum. Stretching to protect a partner would look something more like:

Also, HairyMezican and DoomCow, I think I'm correct in assuming that MeMe and I are mafia.
If that is the case, I would rather have me lynched than MeMe because face it, if we're telling the truth, I'm just a townie and MeMe's a cop.

[Dragon Phoenix]

dmi has a proven role which does not make sense at all to be mafia, certainly not in collaboration with Santa Claus. The same for my role.

That Stewie was not revealed as a killer does not mean a thing - I've seen plenty of games where alliances are kept secret until the end.

[DoomCow]

Why am I not mafia?

I am HM's mother, and together with his late father it was a 3 player masonry. Last night I did see Santa, but you probably won't believe me there.

As for my thoughts on MeMe:

She lied to town twice today, maybe even more. She held back information for as long as she could. And I saw Santa last night, which means MeMe was in my house.

However, I do believe that we have only 2 baddies left (or even 1), either a mafia group, a single killer, or a final member + sk.

[mole]

Vote Count:

MeMe 2 (HairyMexican, DoomCow)
Dragon Phoenix 2 (Dmi, MeMe)

[Dragon Phoenix]

Not convincing. for better or for worse:

Vote Doomcow

[MeMe]

mole - those should be votes on DoomCow, not DP, in your count.

And, hallelujah, scum just went down.

[HairyMezican]

I have a feeling the town just got screwed

[Dmi]

If that's true, at least MeMe will suffer.