Replacing for Dunhamganger and starting my read-through. Will be doing stream-of-concious style catch-up post. This will be super long. Read if you want. Conclusions will be in a second post right after this one. Note that if you plan to read all of this, then pull up the game in a separate tab so you can reference posts. I couldn't easily quote anything because it was night when I made this.
Post #13 - JMO acts a bit odd to early pressure. He tries to explain away a vote that looked random. He's newish to the site, so I'm not sure that this is indicative of alignment. Worth bearing in mind.
Oh god, iamausername's vote was perfectly fine. Silly wagon if I ever saw one. It's really not a big deal. It was a bad joke. I make them all the time. I guess I won't last long here...
Post #20 - Highly suspect. McStab should explain his vote if it's serious. Also, he definitely shouldn't be both making a serious vote and encouraging people to continue pursuing JMO. He should be taking a position on where pressure should be going early.
Post #25 - This feels like scum getting pissed off that they're being wagoned for a bad reason. Odd reaction to pressure again. JMO definitely should be looked at.
Post #31 - Okay, now JMO IS a little OMGUS-y
Post #34 - Yeah, JMO is scum.
Post #39 - "My second highest scum-read is iceninja, but I think iam is scummy for thinking that iceninja deserves votes because he's my highest scum-read." Disconnect here. Seems like Bacde is trying to turn everything that iam says into a scum-tell.
ICEninja's reaction was fine. It doesn't matter that McStab voted him. The fact remains that McStab gave a serious vote and refused to give the reason for it. That's scummy, or as ICEninja put it, "not good."
Post #43 - JMO is SCUMMMMMMMMMMY
Post #45 - Mirhawk gains town-points for this new analysis.
Post #52 - And the scum gives himself away. JMO says the following:
1.I'm not sure what would have happened if I wasn't drunk. But I probably would have made sure I wasn't voting the guy that was already voting for me.
-snip-
3. I didn't lie about it. Being drunk doesn't make it look worse. Like I said, I voted randomly. If I hadn't been drunk I would have made sure that I wouldn't have voted disturbed one because he was already voting me and I know people regard that as a scum tell/newb move. Simple.
If you're town, why would you care so much to carefully avoid giving off scum tells? Scum, in general, are far more aware of being sure not to give off scum-tells than town. I find this super-scummy.
Post #53 - Absta is super town.
Post #60 - Mirhawk is also town.
Post #61 - Odd post. A very vague defense of JMO. Somewhat suspicious of Bacde. Worth looking at later.
Post #65 - This is notably the first time JMO posted about something other than the votes on him, IIRC. That isn't something that town would do. Town would have started scumhunting before the third page if they were posting as frequently as JMO.
Post #68 - "Good question." Combined with post #61, I have some strong suspicions about Bacde and JMO. Their interaction is odd. Call it a gut-read, but I think a Bacda-JMO scum team is very, very possible.
Post #72 - Disturbed = town. His reasoning regarding Ice = not correct.
Post #74 - Absta is town for sure. So painfully obv-town.
Post #78 - Why hasn't this guy (JMO) been lynched yet?
Post #81 - You're breaking my heart, disturbed. Don't switch off scum.
Post #84 - The first line of this post made me lol. Also, Mirhawk is my strongest town read by far.
Post #87 - Not liking ICE's reference of the post where he "obviously" forgot to change his vote. We don't know that. We don't know you accidently didn't change your vote. What we do know is that you didn't vote any of the wagons in the first post and then voted later with the claim that you "forgot." In my experience, people don't forget things nearly as often as they claim to in Mafia, and I'm automatically skeptical of that claim. Much more so now that you're bringing it up as an obvious thing that town should take for granted.
Post #98 - Enter Shamrock. Okay, I cheated. I looked ahead and saw he flipped scum. So, here's the stage when he enters the game. Disturbed has made a good case against JMO. JMO reacted badly (and I mean, BADLY) to pressure from Disturbed and others. Bacde had odd interactions with JMO and has since attacked Disturbed. Shamrock, who we now know is scum, joins the game and hops onto Disturbed while defending ICE. Now, I'd like to assume that Shamrock, who is somewhat experienced, would not defend his partner directly in his first post. But might he defend his partner indirectly by defending ICE, who was being attacked by Disturbed, who was attacking JMO (if that made sense)? I think so. In other words, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." If Disturbed is attacking JMO and ICE, Shamrock would totally be willing to defend ICE in order to discredit Disturbed (and maybe even secure a lynch). I think a scum-team of {Shamrock, JMO, Bacde} is very possible.
Post #103 - Hate this post.
Post #104 - Dislike this OMGUS even more. Post #103 didn't warrant a vote.
Post #105 - Username is town.
Post #106 - Woah, woah, woah. This raises giant red flags for me.
Post #113 - For the record, saying that you should vote someone for pressure greatly reduces the effects of pressure.
Post #114/Post #115 - The old 1-2 tag team by scum central. Gotta love how JMO chimes in parroting Bacde as soon as Bacde posts. JMO had posted in other places on-site between his last post and this post. There were plenty of things for him to post about in this game. He waited for his scum-partner's cue to post. This is not a coincidence. Look at the Bacde/JMO interactions in this game. They are joined at the hip.
Post #139 - Great catchup post. Nacho is likely town.
Post #157 - Ice sounds town to me. I know a lot of pressure has gone to him, but his posts have a lot of good scum-hunting in them.
Post #160 - Oh god, Bacde. Burn it. Burn it with fire.
Post #167 - See above.
Post #177 - HOW DID BACDE SURVIVE DAY ONE?!?!?!?
Post #178 - In the interest of being fair, I actually agree with this point. I too use rhetorical questions rather liberally.
Post #184 - This is the point in my re-read that I'm no longer going to comment on Bacde unless I notice something that everyone else seemed to miss. Otherwise, my analysis is going to be cluttered by me getting increasingly agitated that he's still alive. Needless to say, I think he's far and away the best lynch in Day 2.
Post #187 - Okay, I'm already ignoring what I said earlier, because this might actually be useful. Notice how Bacde votes Shamrock. Some may say he's unlikely to be scum because he drew attention to his partner. This is total hindsight. In reality, his vote didn't put any real pressure on Shamrock. With it did do was twofold. First, it served to allow Bacde to put his vote in a position that is totally non-controversial. I mean, no one would argue with him for wanting lurkers to speak up, especially in this game. This could lessen pressure on him or at least prevent an increase in pressure, and he was certainly under fire. Second, it served as a subtle indicator to Shamrock that he needed to get his ass in the game, which was definitely true at this point. No real pressure was put on Shamrock by this vote. This vote does not make Bacde look like town.
Post #188 - And by the way, this post proves my point. Ice suddenly becomes conflicted because he doesn't want to disprove of lurker hunting. This is literally Bacde's plan in action.
Post #191 - Sends up a red flag on Jabberwock. This is entirely a gut read.
Post #195 - I concur, and this is essentially where I got my gut read. The fact that he hit on two scum in his first post with no stated reasoning is just ... off.
Post #200 - Nevermind, Jabberwock is probably town. Gut-read overruled.
Post #203 - Why are you so stuck on McStab, Ice? It sounds so forced.
Post #207 - @Nacho, where did your read on Bacde go?
Post #215 - This is full of lulz and definitely makes Bacde the second scum.
Post #222 - There's a gay joke in here, somewhere. Feel free to pick it up, anyone.
For the record, Bodygaurd is a great fakeclaim for scum. Common enough to be a believable fake-claim, rare enough to have a much lower probability of a CC as compared to other popular power roles, and just weak enough to be able to explain away the fact that you aren't dead by Day 2 after claiming it.
Post #252 - This stands out as scummy. JMO contributed nothing this game day. Seriously. And he's still preoccupied with the reasons he was being voted. I get it, he's bitter. This is a classic case of "caught for the wrong reasons."
Post #261 - This needs to be substantiated, Nacho.
Post #281 - I lol'd at the discussion of dominance.
Post #285 - JMO pulling out dat WIFOM.
Post #286 - Bacde is, again, joined at the hip with JMO. No. JMO's post was bad. It was all WIFOM. Why do you need to qualify it with "Good post, but..."? You're like best friends.
Post #301 - Melmond's post is null.
Post #312 - This looks like it comes from town (from username).
Post #324 - Ice's post made me lol. Also, town.
Post #325 - A proper defense against "your analysis is crap" is definitely not "but I didn't provide any!" Use this space to do something Cheery, and maybe you'll look more like town.
Post #336 - Not liking this post by Mirhawk. Sounds too annoyed. Could just be town emotion, or could be "caught me for the wrong reason."
Post #344 - The first bit is Bacde essentially screaming "Look! Someone's taking me seriously and thinks I'm town! I AM scumhunting! Give me all of them town-points!" Also, this "case" made me want to throw my computer out of a window. If you are town (highly unlikely), then you're tunnelling on Nacho because you know that a switch at this point would give you away. If Nacho dies during the night, I strongly suspect Bacde because he's backed himself into a corner with his overly aggressive Nacho attack.
Post #352 - Woah. Where did the backtrack on your position on the Bodygaurd claim come from, Disturbed?
Post #353 - Cheery is making me paranoid. He's supporting the Shamrock wagon but refusing to hammer on it. Reads to me like scum trying to get town-cred without actually killing their partner.