Bookitty wrote:ANTITHESIS WAS NOT LYNCHED.
He was
vigged or killed by a serial killer
. He was NOT LYNCHED.
I have no idea why you keep referring to it this way. A
vig or SK
does not care how many votes you have. Someone killed Antithesis. The town did not lynch him. He did not have enough votes to be lynched. He was
vigged or an SK
got him. I don't see how I can be any clearer on this point.
HOW DO YOU KNOW IT WAS NOT A MAFIA ABILITY? YOU ARE VERY VERY CLEAR ON THIS POINT AND THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY YOU CAN KNOW FOR SURE, NOW.
See, if c_d is a SK, he's motivated to daykill Antithesis. That much is obvious. I still think c_d daykilled him. But everyone else was thinking it might be mafia, at that point; only the mafia would know that it
wasn't
.
c_d is either a vig or an SK, at this point. If there a real vig who killed Fonz, they would have claimed at this point.
S&P are either both scum or both town. As such:
Porochaz + Samruc + Bookitty
I think this works. Pretty much none of them have thrown suspicion each other's way, except for Bookitty FoSing Porochaz a bit, and then voting him in 157, but quickly moving off in 178. She also votes him later, but quickly becomes convinced by the mason claim, I think she hasn't actually given reasons why her Porochaz suspicion evaporated, given she was neutral towards Samruc. So I could see this with a small bit of distancing, yeah.
Porochaz + Samruc + farside
Farside's been on Samruc for a while. Doubtful.
Porochaz + Samruc + Setael
She's pretty much been pushing for both of their lynches for a while. This would require epic bussing on her part. I mean, that would be pretty awesome if it's true. But it's probably not.
Porochaz + Samruc + Yosarian
One of Yos's many FoS goes to Samruc, without any followup that I can see.. I've said I don't like that, and it's easy to see why, now; I have no idea if that's genuine or not. Could be distancing, could be whatever. Yos votes Porochaz day 2, unvotes to vote me.. I can kinda see why, though. Doubtful, again.
So, like, if there are three scum and the masons are scum, it's probably S&P + Bookitty. That's really the only one I can see working.
Bookitty + farside
Bookitty's expressed suspicion of farside, but in front ofother people, she keeps having someone else more suspicious to lynch, ... I don't think she actually voted her until a day or two ago, where she says she's "pretty certain" Farside is scum, and points out that I'm heavily linked to her. If I'm totally wrong, that would be quite neat bussing. Farsides's pretty positive towards Bookitty. Works, I think.
Bookitty, why haven't you voted Farside before this?
Bookitty + Setael
This is an interesting one. Setael is quite supportive of Bookitty throughout. Bookitty doesn't comment on her much, no suspicion, and she defends her a
little
with respect to my attack on her, calling it a non-case, and so on... it's difficult to know how much of it is genuine misunderstanding, but there might be something slightly off, there. Seems to want to point at the fact there's nothing solid a little too much, maybe that's just her playstyle, but then again she does similar things in her analysis, saying my comment about townie brownies doesn't feel quite right or a 'general feeling' of Farside doing such-and-such. Works quite well.
Bookitty + Yosarian
Yos seems quite confidant that Bookitty is town throughout, like. Bookitty seems a lil' eager to vote him, although she says she's "a bit leery given the other person on the wagon is someone I'm highly suspicious of" and she unvotes quickly. Hum. Works with a tiny bit of distancing from Bookitty.
farside + Setael
Farside says nothing about her for a while, but then follows me onto her with my gut feeling, due to her reaction. I can see little to no point doing that if they're together, albeit it's good distancing if no-one else hops on (which they didn't). Doubtful.
farside + Yosarian
Yos FoSes and unFoSes. Meh. FoSes Samruc for the OMGUS vote of Farside. Says he likes Bookitty's case, but does nothin' about it at that point. Puts other people above her in his list of suspects. As it gets nearer the end, Yos kinda move towards her being in a scumgroup, and eventually vote her. I'm not particularly confidant that isn't bussing, for the same reason as Bookitty; if she flips scum, I'm very likely to get lynched / vigged anyway, but it does seem like he can live with her lynch. Farside kinda puts Yos as #3 in a list but never really goes anywhere with it for a while, until she follows me (?) into voting him, but kinda backs off and goes after Samruc again. Dunno, kinda doubtful.
Setael + Yosarian
Setael hasn't interacted much with Yos. Yos has barely commented on Setael, and seemed a little reticent to comment on her play when I asked him. Works.
Porochaz + Samruc + Bookitty = Works?
Bookitty + farside = Works
Bookitty + Setael = Works(!)
Bookitty + Yosarian = Works
Setael + Yosarian = Works
So, if we've got three, it's probably one of:
a) Bookitty + Porochaz + Samruc
b) Bookitty + Setael + Yosarian
From my point of view. Mostly because so few people have expressed suspicion of Bookitty, funnily enough. Both are
kind of
plausible, I haven't really paid much attention to her (relatively speaking), and we both have that "I like this person and we have stuff in common so I think they're pro-town" thing that I
know
is going to bite me in the ass one day. But I seriously doubt she's going to get lynched at this point. So I'm fairly meh.. I mean, I may or may not be right, but it's kinda too late to do much about it now. I wish I had a better sense of whether or not there are likely to be two mafia and a SK or whether three mafia was still possible. If I knew there were three, I'd be putting more effort in, but things are so thoroughly confused at the moment.. eh.
I think, at this point, it's very likely that farside gets lynched anyway. If Farside gets lynched and flips scum, yeah, c_d should probably be killing me tonight if he's able due to whatever special condition. *shrug* If I'm
that
wrong, then, uh, yeah, I'm pretty hosed.
Yosarian2 wrote:I also have to admit, I like Elmo's latest post here. It feels like good pro-town reasoning.
Which post was that, anyway?
Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford