Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[Accountant]

Char isn't confirmed town. We could be in a setup without a doctor and it could be a fake claim. If we're in a setup with a doctor someone would have counterclaimed him. But we could be in a setup without a doctor. But if we are in a setup without a doctor then I know what setup we're in.

I'm rather interested in Norska claiming what roles he isn't. If he's town and he's telling the truth then

I

know he

must

be a VT.

4.AM here now and I'm exhausted, goodnight folks.

If we're in a setup without a doctor, then the JK or BP would have claimed, because that would prove we're in such a setup, which means Charloux claim would have to be false. Since no claims have appeared, I believe Charloux's claim.

[Transcend]

I fucking hate being wrong

Like so much

VOTE: Manuel87

[MisaTange]

@Morning Tweet:
Your first quote: Yes, it's the latter. Since my last reads post, I still have him as my strongest scumlean (smaller since, but still the strongest).
I guess what I'm saying is that I don't understand the town motivation between his post. Let's say Norska is indeed a Tracker. Nor is obviously influenced by Transcend's warning not to cc. So Norska "hypoclaims" (i.e., does the thing when you say "I am not [role], [role], or [role]"). Clarification on that note ends up with scum PoE PRs, best case scenario, as Accountant has said.

P-Edit: I am already, Accountant.

Also, I'm a more "support-class" townie. I say "Hey, this user is weird and these posts are weird." And town is like "Hey, yo you're right." Or in this case, "Hey, yo, I need some clarification." (I apologize for the cringe)

Transcend: What changed your read of Manuel?

[Transcend]

Just poe i guess idk I'm basically starting anew with my reads.

Deep down inside, I sincerely hope Charloux is still a scumfuck.

[Morning Tweet]

@Misa Okay, support-class townie, check.

I agree there's no real town motivation, but I'm not scumreading it given who WCS is.

If we were to lynch someone other than WCS, who would you be comfortable with?

[Transcend]

Maybe Mt is scum. I liked them as town for agreeing with me on Char. I gotta think. Carefully.

[MisaTange]

@Transcend: Morning Tweet or me?

@Morning Tweet: Feeling Manuel atm. I feel like his last posts are kind of bad, as if not considering the fact that Char could be rolefishing. Hmm.

[Accountant]

Transcend you might want to consider a thread re-read at this point with the knowledge that Charloux is town. Like, if you can't get it out of your head that Charloux is a scumfuck, you'll start confbiasing and getting tunnel vision. It's what I usually do if I find myself tunnelling.

[Accountant]

as if not considering the fact that Char could be rolefishing

What do you mean by this?

In terms of reads, Norska, Manuel and Misa are all in the same place for me. I'm eliminating Charloux, Transcend and Morning Tweet from my lynch list because I currently have townleans on the last two and Charloux is confirmed. I think Norska is slightly scummier than the other two, not sure why Transcend townreads him, so an explanation for that would be appreciated.

[Accountant]

I think with conftown and a few obvtowns around, PoE is the best way to determine the lynch for today, especially as I don't see any blatant baddies.

Also: forgot to mention WCS in my last post. I'm treating him as a townread for now, for reasons already stated.

[MisaTange]

I think Transcend mentioned this, but it could very well be that Char is caught scum and as a last stand claimed Doc to force the real Doc to out so that they can kill them. It's a matter of playstyle to decide whether or not to counter-claim imo.

I think this is important to note that I believe Char's claim for now.

[Accountant]

I don't know. It's really hard to fake as scum. I mean, here's what I think we should do. Everyone after this post, if you are not a jailkeeper or 1-shot bulletproof, say "I am not a JK or BP". If anyone claims JK or BP, we kill Charloux immediately. If nobody claims it, I'm not willing to lynch Charloux.

For Charloux to be scum, they'd have to be bad enough to slip up early game, good enough to fake a very hard to fake PR tell, subtle enough to not draw attention to it when pressed about softs, clever enough to predict that I'd see the soft and say that he's town, and lucky enough to win the 50/50 coinflip in fakeclaims. I think that probability is low enough that I don't want to lynch him, especially given the consequences if we're wrong.

This post explains why, and Manuel posted after I posted this.

[MisaTange]

Yeah, and that's why I believe Char's claim.

I'd like to be open though.

[Morning Tweet]

Whoops, guess MT isn't a great nickname. He's referring to me, as I joined the Charloux wagon with him early on in the game which prompted him to townread me.

@Morning Tweet: Feeling Manuel atm. I feel like his last posts are kind of bad, as if not considering the fact that Char could be rolefishing. Hmm.

All right, wanted to make sure you're not tunneling WCS (and therefore ignoring Manuel, whom shares a spot with you in my unsure pile).

Here's that read list I mentioned earlier:

Town/ Charloux
Likely Town/ thatsit, Transcend
Lean Town/ Norska, WCS
Null/ Accountant, Manuel, Misa

A couple of these are probably worth going into more detail.

Norska read is partially based on early on his apologetic demeanor early on in the game. He thought he made "mistakes", then apologized for his "poor performance", and finally said he's "being scumread by everyone". It hit me newbie town feeling pressured to perform well. The second half is self-explanatory. Can you imagine newb scum saying 207? After flipping out over his small unvote "mistake" earlier, I seriously doubt scum!Norska would allow himself to post something like this:

Feels like there's some pressure on me. I'll possibly survive today, but I'm being read as scum be pretty much everyone.

Why does Transcend voting WCS make you feel better? Transcend wasn't shifting his vote off you, nor was he justifying your own vote(because you're voting Char and he's voting WCS).

Better as in safer. If Char gets lynched, it won't be directly my fault. Cowardly yes, but cowards live longer.

Sure, his demeanor could be NAI. And I suppose he could have not realized how survivalistic he sounds in 207. Even with these possibilities, he nets a town lean for me.

Now for the Accountant read. Yes, I can hear it already. "How can you have no stance on the game's most frequent poster?!"

Accountant has brought up a TON of great points. He clearly was in the right during his line of questioning with Charloux early on. Look how that one turned out, though. I don't want to describe the nullread as "Accountant will be helpful to town whether he's town or scum, so every useful post he makes is NAI", I just want to be as sure about my Accountant read as I am with my reads on the less experienced players.

[Accountant]

Yeah, and that's why I believe Char's claim.

I'd like to be open though.

You said that Manuel's "not considering that Charloux could be rolefishing" posts are bad. That seems inconsistent with you doing the same - you've more or less bought into the idea that Charloux's claim is legitimate from the start. How do you explain this discrepancy?

[Transcend]

Yeah alright Charloux is town

Back to square one i guess.

Gah

[MisaTange]

The key word is "could be". That purpose is to keep certain worlds open; I dislike townreading people just because they agree with me.

[Accountant]

The key word is "could be". That purpose is to keep certain worlds open; I dislike townreading people just because they agree with me.

Why do you think that scum!Manuel would not keep those worlds open but town!Manuel would?

[Manuel87]

UNVOTE:
ill also take Accountants advice for Transcend and reread since 2 of my scumreads are now my top townreads.

[Manuel87]

Reads:
WCS - town
Charloux - townlean
Thatsit - townlean
Transcend -

scumlean

null slight townlean
NorskaBlue - null
MisaTanga - null slight scumlean
Accountant - scumlean
Morning Tweet - scum


Morning Tweet case:

Spoiler:

182, 186, 189, 191, 233
5 posts in a row she is talking about how she develops a scumread on WCS but never voted him.

UNVOTE:
Who here has objected to a WCS lynch? I don't recall anyone resisting this wagon.

@Charloux @NorskaBlue

Do you think there's a better lynch candidate than WCS?
(Also

@thatsit,

if you missed it, one more vote on WCS will lock a lynch on him. Are you comfortable with this? Who is more likely scum out of Char/WCS?)
Pedit: okay, that makes a tad bit more sense. Do you think if someone had notified Accountant that he was making pre-flip associations, that would have made Accountant look bad? I don't really find realizing his mistake AI.

She unvotes Charloux without mentioning why and asks other players not on the WCS wagon if they want to lynch him.
This looks like she wants WCS lynched but doesnt want to hammer herself. So she wants to see if someone else is willing to hammer.
The same time she asks Thatsit if he still wants to lynch WCS. But then pretty much tells him he should decide between WCS and Charloux (who she just unvoted).

If we were to lynch someone other than WCS, who would you be comfortable with?

All right, wanted to make sure you're not tunneling WCS (and therefore ignoring Manuel, whom shares a spot with you in my unsure pile).

Here's that read list I mentioned earlier:
Town/ Charloux
Likely Town/ thatsit, Transcend
Lean Town/ Norska, WCS
Null/ Accountant, Manuel, Misa

First she is fishing for Misas scumread and one post later she adds me to her scumreads(?). I cant even tell since this readslist has no scum listed in it.
And then she pretty much tells Misa that she is better focusing on me (Manuel) or she (Morning) will scumread her (Misa).

Now for the Accountant read. Yes, I can hear it already. "How can you have no stance on the game's most frequent poster?!"
Accountant has brought up a TON of great points. He clearly was in the right during his line of questioning with Charloux early on. Look how that one turned out, though. I don't want to describe the nullread as "Accountant will be helpful to town whether he's town or scum, so every useful post he makes is NAI", I just want to be as sure about my Accountant read as I am with my reads on the less experienced players.

Here she basically admitts that she has 0 scumreads since Accountant is in the same pile as Misa and me.
The reason also seems fake. Accountant sure made some good points and pressured Charloux quite a bit but he moved off the wagon some time ago while Transcend rejoined it later and pressured him.
So the reason for having Accounttant so low in her reads should also apply to Transcend. Why is he likely town then?

VOTE: Morning Tweet

I realized when i made the case about Morning Tweet that Transcend moved off the WCS wagon at a critical point. I think that makes him more likely to be town.
I still dont understand why he would disbelieve the claim to a point where he tells ppl not to cc and just lynch.

[Transcend]

VOTE: Morning Tweet

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

Char isn't confirmed town. We could be in a setup without a doctor and it could be a fake claim. If we're in a setup with a doctor someone would have counterclaimed him. But we could be in a setup without a doctor. But if we are in a setup without a doctor then I know what setup we're in.

I'm rather interested in Norska claiming what roles he isn't. If he's town and he's telling the truth then

I

know he

must

be a VT.

4.AM here now and I'm exhausted, goodnight folks.

If we're in a setup without a doctor, then the JK or BP would have claimed, because that would prove we're in such a setup, which means Charloux claim would have to be false. Since no claims have appeared, I believe Charloux's claim.

Ahhhh. Good point. I know which setup we're in then.

Charloux is confirmed town.

Norksa is either telling the truth about the roles he isn't because he's a VT, or he's scum. He literally can't be anything besides a VT or scum.

To be honest... I don't like the randomly coming out saying all the roles he isn't. If he's a VT why would he do that? I think it's to give himself pseudo-crediblity. I think he's scum.

I think at this point I have to throw my theory about Accountant having "just realized" being not genuine in the trash, Accountant has overall seemed very townie and I'm starting to think there's no way I can justify his covering things up being more beneficial than simply letting things slide.

Also Accountant warned me about what him and Misa saw as rolefishing. I'd say he wouldn't do that if he's scum. But at the same time he's IC so it's his job to warn people of bad tactics and stuff, to teach them.

What kind of bothers me is we have Norska here mentioning all the roles who he isn't and then when I respond to that I'm told

I'm

fishing.

At this point I can see more scum motivations than VT motivation's for Norska claiming all the roles he isn't. This is why I shall vote for him.

VOTE: Norska

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

I could just easily interpret Manuel as scum as Tweet as scum. If no one is convinced about my reasoning for Norska I'll go and read the ISOs of Manuel and Tweet.

Just a recommendation:

Folks go read Norska's ISO and then Manuel's and Tweet's. Just a suggestion.

[Charloux]

Ahhhh. Good point. I know which setup we're in then.

Slip! If you know there is a doctor, there are 2 possible setups. If you were town, you wouldn't know which one. But scum do!

[Transcend]

^ stop being a shadethrowing fuck ^