[Game Over] Newbie 1900 - Robocalypse

[Lamees]

Auro (L-3)

: volxen, snowbeast

Lamees (L-4)

: Not_Mafia

Flavor Leaf (L-4)

: Ariane

volxen (L-4)

: Flavor Leaf

Ariane (L-4)

: YurikoJasmine

lionheart1492, Auro, Lamees

My read list still stands btw. Auro flips town here? Really? As pointed out he was in "anyone but me" mode. Even admitted he wouldnt want FL to be lynched but this vote and wagon was there anyway. But I guess that panicky survival instincts isnt really alignment indicative, and new town would often do weird stuff to avoid a lynch.

Which reminds me, I once saw a new town fake power role claim, lol those were the days. FL do you remember? Lmao. The dojaj saga.

Anyways I'll wait to see this case on volx.

[Flavor Leaf]

Those were the days, haha. That wasn’t that long ago. :”9@:

[Flavor Leaf]

Aight. I have friends from out of town visiting today, so i’m Cleaning up. Whenever they head home tonight, I’ll be able to make a case.

[Auro]

As pointed out he was in "anyone but me" mode. Even admitted he wouldnt want FL to be lynched but this vote and wagon was there anyway. But I guess that panicky survival instincts isnt really alignment indicative, and new town would often do weird stuff to avoid a lynch.

LOL. I think I'm a fairly capable town players, TYVM.

Obviously I'd want to lynch anyone but me, if it came down to me or anyone else. Only an idiot would be okay with being the day's lynch, even as town. Almost equivalent to self-voting.

[Auro]

Gah typos, player* I'm not a hydra.

[Lamees]

Anyone play with yuriko before?

[Lamees]

Seems like prod dodging lol. JK

[volxen]

@Volxen:

I repeat - Pressure on Lamees isn't useful, and she flails as either alignment. It would only add to the entropy behind her posts, and make it even more difficult to sort.
I still assert that optimum Lamees-reading strategy is to observe her activity *without* pressure over a longer duration.
Acting scummy doesn't imply scummy if acting scummy is playstyle.

Agree?

No, I completely disagree. I don’t believe anyone should be given “special” treatment (such as not voting them when you otherwise normally would) based purely on meta reasons. Especially in the case of Lamees, who has only completed five games and been on the site for two months.

Your position is basically making the assumption beforehand that voting for Lamees would be a pointless endeavor because in previous games she has flailed as town, and thus nothing useful or potentially AI could possibly be gleaned from how she would react to the pressure

in this game

. I disagree with making such an assumption without even trying. Yes you had a back-and-forth exchange with Lamees, but I think it would have been far more useful if you had actually pressured her with a vote while still questioning/engaging her (as you did with me earlier in the game). Maybe she would have “flailed”, or maybe she wouldn’t have – we don’t know for sure from the handful of games that she has completed. But either way, it’s entirely possible that there *would* have been AI things in how she responded to the pressure. Even if she ended up flailing, there is a difference between town flailing and scum flailing, so it can still be potentially AI. But the point is, if you truly were finding her to be *very* scummy, what did you have to lose by voting for her and pressuring her? I would argue nothing, but you could have potentially gained a lot. So why not do it? And that’s what I find suspicious with respect to your voting – you identify Lamees as the person you currently find to be the scummiest, but then you don’t vote for her based purely on meta reasons.

It’s the same thing with respect to your stance on Not_Mafia, although it’s *slightly* more understandable in his case because he has been on the site for well over four years and has a *much* more established meta than Lamees. Still, even in his case I don’t agree with giving his slot special treatment, or the notion that his slot doesn’t need to be read because an investigative TPR will deal with that for us.


I do find it highly suspicious to throw a lot of shade at someone and then claim that you aren’t voting for them because of meta reasons.

What are your thoughts on Flavor Leaf currently?

[Flavor Leaf]

Just pointing out how Volxen countered something in a defensive way since he has a wagon brewing on him, said nothing about my slot, but wants to hear other’s thoughts before stating his own.

To me, it looks like he’s looking to follow a mislynch Flavor plan if can, say he’s town with an incorrect read if can’t.

[volxen]

Just pointing out how Volxen countered something in a defensive way since he has a wagon brewing on him, said nothing about my slot, but wants to hear other’s thoughts before stating his own.

To me, it looks like he’s looking to follow a mislynch Flavor plan if can, say he’s town with an incorrect read if can’t.

You are the only person voting for me, so I don't see how me responding to a question Auro asked me is "defensive".

And I did comment on your slot earlier:

Volxen, what do you make of the whole FL-Me-Lamees interactions? Are you scumreading me?

None of you, Lamees, or FL are townreads for me. I’m still highly skeptical of all three of you.

In FL’s case, I’m not sure his motives in voting for Not_Mafia are as honest as he claims them to be. He’s claiming here that his vote for Not_Mafia was a reaction test: the idea being that if enough people sheeped him, he would likely find scum among those who joined him on the Not_Mafia wagon. If he’s town then such a reaction test makes sense, as Not_Mafia is arguably low hanging fruit in this game (a low content poster who is unlikely to really defend himself), and a flashwagon against Not_Mafia would have been highly suspect.

On the other hand, if FL is scum and Not_Mafia is town then getting said flashwagon against Not_Mafia would be precisely his goal, and if it led to Not_Mafia actually being lynched, then on day 2 after Not_Mafia flips town, FL can start to go after the people who sheeped him onto Not_Mafia’s wagon, and potentially line up the next mislynch from that group.

Reactions tests are a thing, but if FL is scum it gives him an easy out because when questioned about his vote for Not_Mafia he can just say, “Oh, I was just waiting to see if anyone would sheep me on the wagon so I can catch scum”, when the real reason for the vote was to push for an easy lynch against Not_Mafia, which he then quickly abandoned after realizing it wasn’t going to happen.

In general, if someone does something that’s sketchy and then claims after the fact that it was just a reaction test, I’m going to be very skeptical of that unless it’s coming from someone that I already strongly townread.

The only player in this game that I feel is truly towny at this point is Lion. And even that is more of a townlean than a full-blown strong townread. As I mentioned before, I didn’t like his early game vote and attack against Yuirko for her “Why Lamees?” question, and his subsequent vote and attack against me for supposedly engaging in “fearmongering”. However, in the process of our back-and-forth conversation, he reassessed his read of me in light of new information. He is still skeptical of my slot, but he conceded that everything I said could be coming from the perspective of town!me, which gives at least some indication that he wants to sort my slot as opposed to just wanting to push a lynch through. He could be faking it, but it came across like a genuine reassessment of his read on my slot based on new information, which is towny.

So basically Lion is somewhat towny, and I am highly skeptical of everyone else.

I’m not sure yet where I want to place my vote at the moment. I feel like I need to reread the last several pages, or perhaps the whole game, and see which one of you (everyone besides Lion) has the most scum equity currently.

I found your whole vote for Not_Mafia and subsequent "it was just a reaction test" explanation to be highly suspect.

As I said previously, Lion is the only slot that I find to be truly towny. Auro has been throwing shade at me all game, and I don't find your push on me to be genuine. Especially when you say things like "a wagon is brewing on you" before you have even presented your case. I think its highly unlikely that you and Auro are both town.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

[Flavor Leaf]

The OMGUS.

I believe there to be scum on the Auro wagon alongside the Me wagon.

You have officially become the first person to be on both the Auro wagon and now the Me wagon. I don’t think Lamees does this bit she’s been doing as scum. I know I’m town. I understood what Auro said about snowbeast seeming newb town.

That effectively leaves you, and now as a defense you’re pushing me again as an OMGUS and forcing a 1v1.

Also, your posting towards me completely leaves out the scum motivation of me unvoting Auro as the second biggest wagon, effectively collapsing his wagon, where I didn’t push Lamees even though she was pushing me as scummy for reasons other has stated were not scummy, alongside your mention of saying it’s “highly unlikely” that both Auro and myself are both town.

If that’s how you feel, why did you switch from Auro to me? Auro was the leading wagon.

[volxen]

The OMGUS.

I believe there to be scum on the Auro wagon alongside the Me wagon.

You have officially become the first person to be on both the Auro wagon and now the Me wagon. I don’t think Lamees does this bit she’s been doing as scum. I know I’m town. I understood what Auro said about snowbeast seeming newb town.

That effectively leaves you, and now as a defense you’re pushing me again as an OMGUS and forcing a 1v1.

Also, your posting towards me completely leaves out the scum motivation of me unvoting Auro as the second biggest wagon, effectively collapsing his wagon, where I didn’t push Lamees even though she was pushing me as scummy for reasons other has stated were not scummy, alongside your mention of saying it’s “highly unlikely” that both Auro and myself are both town.

If that’s how you feel, why did you switch from Auro to me? Auro was the leading wagon.

You are acting like me being scum is the only explanation for both Auro's wagon and your wagon. It's not.

First of all, you never even got up to L-1. Only Auro did. These were the wagon compositions when both of your wagons were at their highest points:

Auro (L-1): volxen, Flavor Leaf, Lamees, snowbeast

Flavor Leaf (L-2): Ariane, Auro, Not_Mafia

I was not on your original wagon when you got up to L-2. There is no one who was on both of your wagons at their highest points.

And beyond that, your wagon only got up to L-2. Why are you convinced there had to be scum on your wagon with only three voters on you? If you got up to L-1 then I would agree it's highly likely that there was scum on your wagon, and I've made this argument in multiple games when doing wagon analysis (although In Newbie 1893 I did get up to L-1, as town, without any scum on my wagon so it can happen). So if anything, Auro's wagon is the more likely wagon to have contained scum, and you were on that wagon.

Yes I am voting for you now, but at the moment only Ariane and I are voting for you, so it's misleading when you say that I am the only person to be on both of your wagons, when I was never on your original wagon when you got up to L-2 with three votes.

So your wagon previously was {Ariane, Auro, Not_Mafia} and now it is {Ariane, Volxen}. If you are convinced that you didn't get up to L-2 without scum involvement, then why are you fixated on my slot when I had nothing to do with you originally getting up to L-2?

Do you believe all three of Ariane, Auro, and Not_Mafia are town?

And by the way, my original wagon was {Auro, Flavor Leaf, Lion}, so fmpov I could make the same argument about you since you were on both my wagon and Auro's wagon at their highest points.

As far as why you left the Auro wagon, I'm not going to claim to know your full agenda if you are scum, but there are logical reasons for you to do this if you are scum. If you and Auro are scum together then your motivation is clear: the both of you cross-voted each other to do some distancing, but neither of you actually wanted to bus the other.

But even if you are scum and Auro is town, you could have left his wagon because you determined that I would be a safer day 1 mislynch for you going into day 2. My slot has taken a fair bit of heat in this game, perhaps more than Auro's overall (and I also was the first wagon), so perhaps you concluded that I would be a safer day 1 mislynch that would result in less scrutiny towards your slot on day 2. After all if you are scum you don't want to just pull off a mislynch, but you also want to set yourself up to look good going into day 2.

The fact that you left Auro's wagon in favor of voting for me and presenting a case against me does not in and of itself clear you as town.

[Ariane]

So I just find FL's playing here weird, tho I'm glad he's posting more. Vote staying on him for now, though.

'The case is valid but I'm town so I've nothing to say'
'One of Auro/Ariane is scum cos nobody else has voted and scum jump on the opp to vote me'—lazy reasoning imo, and also... has anyone here played with FL before? Why do you think scum would (know to?) vote you? Or is this a 'scum always vote ICs' kind of a thing? Again strange, don't follow the reasoning and—this is what I'm talking about w/ mechanics as an excuse—a way to vote (engage in the game like I accused him of not doing) without really analysing play

Although to be fair he's doing that more now, not sure how honest I find it but I'll need to have another look

On Auro's wagon:

Volxen, FL, Lamees, snowbeast

99.999999% certain there's scum there, it built up too quickly. Also the three in my earlier 'scum's probably here' pool (250) are all on there lolol, go figure

FL, you figured one of me/Auro had to be scum cos of the voting thing. In fact, you were pretty certain ("That’s a shame. I was town reading both Auro and Ariana. Guess i was wrong somewhere." 164). Does that mean you're now certain I'm scum, since "I think you’re town, Auro" (318)? I mean this is like PoE with only two participants, like the easiest thing in the world. Why aren't you voting me?

VOTE: Volxen

I can see the newbie town in Snowbeast.

I think you’re town, Auro. Give me a chance to show that I’m town. I have zero reason as scum to come in and post right now, let alone unvote you when I’m the next biggest wagon.

You weren't my favorite lynch anyway -- I was noting that your activity in other games has been down too.

I'll be happy to vote Volxen. Ariane, what do you think?

Nah, I think I'm staying on FL. This strikes me as too much of a compromise, and I don't like them, particularly when I'm scumreading one of the participants. In my limited experience, compromise lynches don't tend to hit scum

[Ariane]

To recap, FL's actions look like this:

1. not really interacting/contributing
2. 'Auro or Ari is scum'—said with seeming certainty
3. 'Auro isn't scum'

Now, what would make sense here is:

4. 'Ari is scum'.

Why am I so suspicious that he's not done this? I'll tell you—because statement 2 was based on mechanics/voting counts. Note that this, for FL, completely overrided his 'reads' based on play/character. Therefore, since Auro is town, I shouldn't be able to get out of FL scum reading me through towny posting, or whatever. Yet, he's not voting me. Why?

FL's stuff here strikes me as using a flimsy excuse to find scumreads, but the excuse itself has disappeared, and there's no justification for that.

After leaving Auro, he goes on to vote Volxen, pairing it with 'oh Auro is town'. As said above, this should mean by his own admission, that he's reading me

strongly

as scum. But he's not. The closest he comes to it is saying that one of me/NM is probably scum. But, like I've said, he should be pretty confident it's me.

So

[Ariane]

But the thing is, Volx/snow is gonna be an easier lynch than me. This is awful:

That means you can see Volxen or Snowbeast as scum? Which would you prefer?

VOTE: Volxen

I can see the newbie town in Snowbeast.

I think you’re town, Auro. Give me a chance to show that I’m town. I have zero reason as scum to come in and post right now, let alone unvote you when I’m the next biggest wagon.

Like, come on. He's happy to lynch either Volx or Snow? While being pretty certain either me/NM are scum? While he

should

be pretty certain I'm scum?

Not only that, he asks Auro which lynch he wants. This is compromise lynching, and I see

no

town motivation behind it at all.

[Ariane]

I can see why unvoting Auro there might be a town move, but I'm still unconvinced. I don't think it overrides the rest of his play, to me.

although what were the off-wagon players' read on Auro at the time? Don't remember, tho I do remember that me and NM were strongly townreading him, I think.

[Ariane]

I'm also liking Volx's posts more than I was.

[Ariane]

"Give me a chance to show I'm town", lol

I started off this series of posts (sorry lol) saying I was staying on FL 'for now', but I think while making them I've actually convinced myself that he's the lynch I want.

[Auro]

Still dislike Volxen's posts.

Ariane -- Flavor's trying to reach consensus based on a townread, given we're getting closer to the deadline. He said he's not sure of my townreading you and Not_Mafia, and also knows there's no way you're getting lynched.

Why would town!Flavor try to push a wagon that won't fly, this close to the deadline?

[Auro]

No, I completely disagree. I don’t believe anyone should be given “special” treatment (such as not voting them when you otherwise normally would) based purely on meta reasons. Especially in the case of Lamees, who has only completed five games and been on the site for two months.

Your position is basically making the assumption beforehand that voting for Lamees would be a pointless endeavor because in previous games she has flailed as town, and thus nothing useful or potentially AI could possibly be gleaned from how she would react to the pressure in this game. I disagree with making such an assumption without even trying.

This is *my* belief, *my* strategy to get *my* most accurate reads as town. I've not made the assumption -- I've SEEN her react to pressure.

Why are YOU throwing shade at my choice of how I choose to play, without attacking the argument itself?

>"Pressure is wasted on Lamees, she flails as town"
If you think her meta is unreliable for this, sure. But shading me for thinking so? Nah. Robot.

Meta always makes you treat someone slightly different, depending on the context.

[lionheart1492]

Ok I’m getting on a computer soon but ariane you’re actually just wrong about what you call compromise lynching. It’s not scummy, it’s how day 1 works. We need 5 votes and we need to lynch someone, no lynch is worse than lynching a lesser scum read day 1 every time.

Like I wouldn’t say I’m solidly scumreadinf anyone rn but the only people I wouldn’t take the role of 5th vote on are auro and nm. Anyone else is high enough % to be scum that I’ll take the chance and the information I get from their flip over a no lynch.

[Auro]

Why I don't want to lynch Flavor today:

:He actually admitted that the PoE was lazy, and wanted to garner reactions in the FL-Auro exchange
:He wasn't active anywhere onsite, consistent with above
:He's one of the players willing to work *with* others, his engagement has been much more honest compared to, say, Volxen
:His behaviour towards Lamees is consistent with her meta - He played a game where she's scum
:No real scum motivation to dismantle the wagon on me, as the second biggest wagon

Ariane, do you think a wagon on you could, in theory, be pushed to lynch 2 days from the deadline in this gamestate?
If you don't think so, town!Flavor won't think so.
If he continued pushing you from the PoE reasoning, that's lazy again -- so you'd want to lynch him anyway.
If someone does X and gets scumread, and does ~X and also gets scumread, the reader should re-evaluate.

Flavor admitted it was a lazy vote and used game information to narrow down on his lynchpool, and found an intersection with mine. That's working with townreads and not compro-lynching ATM. There's obvious town motivation in that.
For useful reference: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... n_Cohesion

[Auro]

No, I completely disagree. I don’t believe anyone should be given “special” treatment (such as not voting them when you otherwise normally would) based purely on meta reasons. Especially in the case of Lamees, who has only completed five games and been on the site for two months.

"Meta", can sort these slots at a later point more accurately, reasonable to search for scummier prospects

Your position is basically making the assumption beforehand that voting for Lamees would be a pointless endeavor because in previous games she has flailed as town, and thus nothing useful or potentially AI could possibly be gleaned from how she would react to the pressure

in this game

. I disagree with making such an assumption without even trying.

You've been scumreading other slots too, you've just been tunnelling me throughout.
Why was I the only person you were trying to pressure?

Yes you had a back-and-forth exchange with Lamees, but I think it would have been far more useful if you had actually pressured her with a vote while still questioning/engaging her (as you did with me earlier in the game). Maybe she would have “flailed”, or maybe she wouldn’t have – we don’t know for sure from the handful of games that she has completed. But either way, it’s entirely possible that there *would* have been AI things in how she responded to the pressure.

Possible

, but I've better plays to make.
Everyone's "possibly" scum, doesn't mean I'm voting everyone each and every player to reaction-test.

Even if she ended up flailing, there is a difference between town flailing and scum flailing, so it can still be potentially AI.

Her town failing was horribly misread as scum flailing last game. You can disagree with me here, but if you can't see where I'm coming from in my play, you're being dishonest.

But the point is, if you truly were finding her to be *very* scummy, what did you have to lose by voting for her and pressuring her? I would argue nothing, but you could have potentially gained a lot. So why not do it? And that’s what I find suspicious with respect to your voting – you identify Lamees as the person you currently find to be the scummiest, but then you don’t vote for her based purely on meta reasons.

My read now has changed, but at that time I didn't find her the scummiest -- I found her *plays* the scummiest, and also mentioned that's NAI for her.
I constantly pointed it out to get her to change her play, and reached the conclusion that she's stubborn town or agenda-pushing scum.

It’s the same thing with respect to your stance on Not_Mafia, although it’s *slightly* more understandable in his case because he has been on the site for well over four years and has a *much* more established meta than Lamees. Still, even in his case I don’t agree with giving his slot special treatment, or the notion that his slot doesn’t need to be read because an investigative TPR will deal with that for us.

Misrepresentation of my earlier stance + ignorance of my clarification that Not_Mafia should be a PoE lynch.
I'm townreading Not_Mafia now for non-meta reasons.

I do find it highly suspicious to throw a lot of shade at someone and then claim that you aren’t voting for them because of meta reasons.

Scum motivation for this? If I can push a mislynch on *valid* grounds, especially when there's a wagon on me, why wouldn't I?
Besides, again, you honestly can't suspect someone because of how they chose to interpret meta and play.
"They do X as town too, therefore X is NAI" is far more reliable than "They do X as scum, therefore scum".

What are your thoughts on Flavor Leaf currently?

Posted above. scum!Flavor would know that my wagon would be hunted in D2.
scum!Flavor could judge that it's useful to pocket me. I'm not townreading him, but he's not my favorite lynch either.

[Auro]

As I said previously, Lion is the only slot that I find to be truly towny.

:Getting major scum vibes from this.
:Volxen's clearly meta-aware.
:He looks like he's trying to copy town meta.

I'm not solid at all on this, but if there's someone who can do a more comprehensive meta-evaluation, do go ahead.

[volxen]

As I said previously, Lion is the only slot that I find to be truly towny.

:Getting major scum vibes from this.
:Volxen's clearly meta-aware.
:He looks like he's trying to copy town meta.

I'm not solid at all on this, but if there's someone who can do a more comprehensive meta-evaluation, do go ahead.

Why do you keep bringing up meta so much? You know the irony is that I started this game off by saying that I would have a hard time reading your slot due to meta (our one previous game together), but you by far have used meta more than anyone else in this game to justify your actions (e.g. not voting Lamees, saying Not_Mafia needs to be sorted by an investigative TPR, etc.). You are over relying on meta in my opinion in your treatment of various slots. Yes... if you look at my town games, you will see that I have townreads/townleans in some cases.

How is me saying that I find Lion to be towny indicative of scum!me trying to purposefully copy my town meta?