Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[T-Bone]

Wait, we just win by lynching maxwell, GuiltyLion, Clover/Blair and nothing can stop this. Am I wrong?

[T-Bone]

Oh wait yes I am because we lose in 5p LyLo if maxwell and guiltylion are both town.

[T-Bone]

Son of a- the WIFOM is real.

[Blair]

My offer still stands.

[Clover Ebi]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

Slight change of plans it seems.

[Clover Ebi]

Since we can all agree the scum team doesn't have 2 in Max/Me/T-bone and Cat is basically outted scum at thus point lynching the right side up is the correct play 9/10 times. The other spicy play is Max>Guilty but that doesn't make much sense when Cat should be outted at this point.

[Clover Ebi]

Really the only problem with Guilty scum is if he's scum and gets lynched he automatically loses the game because of what T-bone just said. But considering we're going up anyway I see no reason why not?

[GuiltyLion]

I agree I am the best lynch here

I also generally agree that kill strongly points to CSF scum

but

I could see a Blair/T-Bone team trying that shot in hopes of a D2 CSF lynch for autowin, if I'm being paranoid

but yeah, flip me, then if Blair is scum she's caught, and if she's not then worst case scenario you have 5p LYLO with a conftown and your choice of lynch anywhere on the board

[GuiltyLion]

how much else do we need to discuss? I'm happy to self-vote whenever

[T-Bone]

No we're so dumb and need to hold up this lynch.

[Clover Ebi]

If we look at worst case we still end up with the same lylo as before right? The top left corner.
UNVOTE:
huh?

[T-Bone]

There are two ways we logically play this out. We lynch Maxwell or GuiltyLion. Let's assume both are town for the moment. In fact, I'd go as far as to pseudo-confirm them both.

Lynching Maxwell gets Celeste killed, and leaves a 5p LyLo of Bone, Clover, GL, Blair, and CSF. Lynching GuiltyLion leaves Bone, Clover, CSF, Celeste and Maxwell.

In common that leaves Bone, Clover, and CSF. That means one scum, and potentially both are in this trio.

Someone who isn't me, am I missing something? (a maxwell/GL scumteam playing some serious WIFOM maybe)

[Clover Ebi]

In what world do we not lynch Guilty>CSF?

[T-Bone]

You're either scum or confirmed town GuiltyLion, so bounce some ideas with me.

[GuiltyLion]

I 100% disagree with maxwell lynch because that forces a D3 lynch onto me and is a loss if he's town

The reason you lynch me instead of anybody else here is it forces the scum NK onto Blair

if she flips town, I think you just gotta play out the 5p LYLO and decide what to do from there, I don't know if I advocate an immediate mindless CSF lynch though I do think it'd be still very likely she's scum.

This kill overall feels to me like a desperation move more than a 4D chess galaxy brain play. I don't think a team of Maxwell/Clover or Maxwell/T-Bone needs to kill beboy to win the long game. I think either:
a) CSF scum tried for WIFOM or
b) Blair w/ somebody in {Maxwell/Clover/T-Bone} afraid of losing in 3p was hoping we'd err and mislynch CSF today

[T-Bone]

No, talk to me GL. Why this move? Why force us into a single move that preserves the IC to LyLo? This is not about Day 2, this is about Day 3. Why not Celeste, and then give us the choice of lynching the beeboy/CSF lover pair or the GL/Blair lover pair instead? Give me your ideas.

Here's the Day 3 player-list now. Bone, maxwell, Clover, CSF, and Celeste. Why force this 5?

[maxwell]

In common that leaves Bone, Clover, and CSF. That means one scum, and potentially both are in this trio.

Yeah, there's at least one scum in those 3 and it's almost certainly CSF given every single other team had a potential autowin unless town decided to change their minds overnight (which I had contemplated, tbh, but now we get more or less the best of both worlds).

Actually it occurs to me that if Blair actually is scum in this configuration, it's an automatic win regardless, we can form a tic-tac-toe safely.

[GuiltyLion]

Actually it occurs to me that if Blair actually is scum in this configuration, it's an automatic win regardless, we can form a tic-tac-toe safely.

Ah I hadn't thought of this tbh, that kinda makes me think Blair isn't scum after all lol

[GuiltyLion]

No, talk to me GL. Why this move? Why force us into a single move that preserves the IC to LyLo? This is not about Day 2, this is about Day 3. Why not Celeste, and then give us the choice of lynching the beeboy/CSF lover pair or the GL/Blair lover pair instead? Give me your ideas.

Here's the Day 3 player-list now. Bone, maxwell, Clover, CSF, and Celeste. Why force this 5?

I honestly don't know why scum did what they did, my guesses will only get you so far. I still think it's a desperation move - what was CSF to do here if she's scum? She can't just kill Celeste and then push for Blair as that will make it pretty obvious she's scum anyway. Maybe the hope was this sets them up for a better 5 somehow in terms of associations.

Another thing to consider - lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

[GuiltyLion]

maybe scum just thought I'd be too arrogant to accept being a D2 lynch lol

[GuiltyLion]

You're either scum or confirmed town GuiltyLion

also just occurred to me how silly this phrasing is

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Does anyone object to me just voting GL

[GuiltyLion]

maybe it's Clover/CSF after all and I've been the only voice of sanity/reason in a sea of mistaken townies calling him obvtown!

there's your answer T-Bone!

[maxwell]

Actually it occurs to me that if Blair actually is scum in this configuration, it's an automatic win regardless, we can form a tic-tac-toe safely.

Ah I hadn't thought of this tbh, that kinda makes me think Blair isn't scum after all lol

I mean, the problem is there's no other potential universe where i don't want to get rid of her today - we're guaranteed to lose if we mislynch T-Bone or Clover since mafia can kill to force you as the D3 lynch, basically making the same decision I'd have to make if Blair does flip town but giving her the win if she's scum and that's obviously suoptimal

[T-Bone]

No, talk to me GL. Why this move? Why force us into a single move that preserves the IC to LyLo? This is not about Day 2, this is about Day 3. Why not Celeste, and then give us the choice of lynching the beeboy/CSF lover pair or the GL/Blair lover pair instead? Give me your ideas.

Here's the Day 3 player-list now. Bone, maxwell, Clover, CSF, and Celeste. Why force this 5?

I honestly don't know why scum did what they did, my guesses will only get you so far. I still think it's a desperation move - what was CSF to do here if she's scum? She can't just kill Celeste and then push for Blair as that will make it pretty obvious she's scum anyway. Maybe the hope was this sets them up for a better 5 somehow in terms of associations.

Another thing to consider - lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

The reason I added maxwell to the thing from above...is specifically for the presence of Blair, since if we were playing tic-tac-toe the spot maxwell occupies is the move. But then after I realized it doesn't matter because we're gonna lynch you meaning she eats the nightkill regardless of alignment.

I'm asking you specifically for your thoughts is because assuming you're town we are going into 5p LyLo, and I need to not vote the townie among maxwell, CSF, and Clover. Then the other townie also needs to not vote me. Then Celeste needs to get on board. That's a tough spot. We still have scumhunting flexibility with 7 alive.