In post 349, mastina wrote:shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
Tayl0r Swift
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart/EchoVision
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox
This is an unordered list of the players not 100% confirmed not-scum.
From this list:
I feel like EchoVision was town and Something_Smart's contributions do seem to be town here, but I admit it's not locktown in terms of content. Still, probably someone who is more likely town than not, thus, bad elimination for days upon days. A "close to lylo, reevaluate, otherwise, trust" read. I'm removing him from the list.
jjh is an ascetic--schadd_ uses ascetics as both alignments, so this could be a scum role, but based on the setup with the roles revealed, along with my read on him, I feel like he's far more likely to be town. I'll not remove-remove him from the list, but will put his name in strikethrough text, to help indicate how likely it is that he's not scum, as an honorary-removal.
Pickaxe Pete, I think people are going, "active lurker, must be scum". But Pickaxe Pete, while having one of the lowest post counts in the game, isn't actually an active lurker; if you look at Pickaxe Pete's iso, there's no fluff in it. Pickaxe Pete isn't posting often, but when he does, it is actual solid real content. People say that his hop onto Gamma might've been arbitrary and he felt trapped and couldn't switch off--but if you look at his iso, that's not actually the case? He was a legitimate pusher of Gamma, and you can see it with posts like this and also this, where he is pushing for Gamma-scum by pointing out that the Gamma defenders don't have good grounds to stand upon.
I realize that he's not active and that his posts after D1 aren't quite as good and that he's in the list of three for scum--but honestly? I don't see the scum case for him at all and consider him to be town. I recognize that he's in the list of three though so instead of removing him from the list I'll underline him.
shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
Tayl0r Swift
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox
shellyc's a slot I've strongly gut-townread, liking her content the entire game, but hearsay strongly suggests that she should be scum, because she's not hyperposting and not displaying low-hanging fruit tendencies; she's being reasonable, logical, pristine and precise. I have no gauge on whether this hearsay is accurate, but if it is, then she'd be scum. But left to my own devices, I'd call her town. She probably stays in the scum candidate list regardless.
Misty we're currently discussing. I felt that Christopher was nullscum, and Misty's play while looking better wasn't strongly town. There's multiple issues with her claim, but there is some soft evidence suggesting she did at least soft it D2 in spite of not having claimed it. So I can see her as town but think the evidence does point to scum more than town. She definitely stays in the scum candidate list.
Bell and Mathblade are just...a whole mess of ambivalence and messiness. I don't think they're on the same tier as Misty and shelly, but they're just...hard to pin down.
Tayl0r Swift has a bunch of town-looking content, but utterly atrocious interactions with Gamma; Gamma should've been suspicious of Tayl0r but instead thought her town, and Tayl0r was one of the Gamma defenders, a rather strong outspoken one. When it comes to any individual post, I'd say town, but when it comes to the whole with the stances being pushed, I'd say scum. Probably not in the same tier as shellyc/Misty, but close to.
DiamondSentinel is more or less a read where I can see the townness of the slot and want to trust that Titus's meta of DiamondSentinel (since Titus is one of the few players who I feel has good meta on him) is accurate when she says that he's strongly town. So he's among the least-likely.
DDL looks like scum through and through and is in the list of three, so he's among the most-likely.
TheGoldenParadox is basically a hybrid of Pickaxe Pete and Something_Smart, taking the town indicators of both of them but downplaying them to be less town than they are in their original slots. I can see him as town and do read him as such, but he does have some rather questionable areas of his iso and he's not in the same league of towniness. Still though, given this read, he's among the least-likely.
So now giving the list an ordered list:
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
(Personally I'd remove from candidacy if not for being in the list of three)
DiamondSentinel
TheGoldenParadox
(Not removed, but among the least likely)
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
(hard to get locked down)
shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Tayl0r Swift
(Among the most likely)
DrDolittle
(By far the most likely)
Given there's four scum left alive, right now if you asked me for a solve given the above I'd go DDL-Tayl0r-Misty-shelly, but I don't know how likely it is and I'm definitely not going to push most of these hard.
Pagetopping this in here. (Will probably share inthread shortly, sorry to annoy you with it twice Almost50 but I use neighborhoods to hash out drafts for inthread content. )
In post 349, mastina wrote:shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
Tayl0r Swift
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart/EchoVision
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox
This is an unordered list of the players not 100% confirmed not-scum.
From this list:
I feel like EchoVision was town and Something_Smart's contributions do seem to be town here, but I admit it's not locktown in terms of content. Still, probably someone who is more likely town than not, thus, bad elimination for days upon days. A "close to lylo, reevaluate, otherwise, trust" read. I'm removing him from the list.
jjh is an ascetic--schadd_ uses ascetics as both alignments, so this could be a scum role, but based on the setup with the roles revealed, along with my read on him, I feel like he's far more likely to be town. I'll not remove-remove him from the list, but will put his name in strikethrough text, to help indicate how likely it is that he's not scum, as an honorary-removal.
Pickaxe Pete, I think people are going, "active lurker, must be scum". But Pickaxe Pete, while having one of the lowest post counts in the game, isn't actually an active lurker; if you look at Pickaxe Pete's iso, there's no fluff in it. Pickaxe Pete isn't posting often, but when he does, it is actual solid real content. People say that his hop onto Gamma might've been arbitrary and he felt trapped and couldn't switch off--but if you look at his iso, that's not actually the case? He was a legitimate pusher of Gamma, and you can see it with posts like this and also this, where he is pushing for Gamma-scum by pointing out that the Gamma defenders don't have good grounds to stand upon.
I realize that he's not active and that his posts after D1 aren't quite as good and that he's in the list of three for scum--but honestly? I don't see the scum case for him at all and consider him to be town. I recognize that he's in the list of three though so instead of removing him from the list I'll underline him.
shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
Tayl0r Swift
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox
shellyc's a slot I've strongly gut-townread, liking her content the entire game, but hearsay strongly suggests that she should be scum, because she's not hyperposting and not displaying low-hanging fruit tendencies; she's being reasonable, logical, pristine and precise. I have no gauge on whether this hearsay is accurate, but if it is, then she'd be scum. But left to my own devices, I'd call her town. She probably stays in the scum candidate list regardless.
Misty we're currently discussing. I felt that Christopher was nullscum, and Misty's play while looking better wasn't strongly town. There's multiple issues with her claim, but there is some soft evidence suggesting she did at least soft it D2 in spite of not having claimed it. So I can see her as town but think the evidence does point to scum more than town. She definitely stays in the scum candidate list.
Bell and Mathblade are just...a whole mess of ambivalence and messiness. I don't think they're on the same tier as Misty and shelly, but they're just...hard to pin down.
Tayl0r Swift has a bunch of town-looking content, but utterly atrocious interactions with Gamma; Gamma should've been suspicious of Tayl0r but instead thought her town, and Tayl0r was one of the Gamma defenders, a rather strong outspoken one. When it comes to any individual post, I'd say town, but when it comes to the whole with the stances being pushed, I'd say scum. Probably not in the same tier as shellyc/Misty, but close to.
DiamondSentinel is more or less a read where I can see the townness of the slot and want to trust that Titus's meta of DiamondSentinel (since Titus is one of the few players who I feel has good meta on him) is accurate when she says that he's strongly town. So he's among the least-likely.
DDL looks like scum through and through and is in the list of three, so he's among the most-likely.
TheGoldenParadox is basically a hybrid of Pickaxe Pete and Something_Smart, taking the town indicators of both of them but downplaying them to be less town than they are in their original slots. I can see him as town and do read him as such, but he does have some rather questionable areas of his iso and he's not in the same league of towniness. Still though, given this read, he's among the least-likely.
So now giving the list an ordered list:
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
(Personally I'd remove from candidacy if not for being in the list of three)
DiamondSentinel
TheGoldenParadox
(Not removed, but among the least likely)
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
(hard to get locked down)
shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Tayl0r Swift
(Among the most likely)
DrDolittle
(By far the most likely)
Given there's four scum left alive, right now if you asked me for a solve given the above I'd go DDL-Tayl0r-Misty-shelly, but I don't know how likely it is and I'm definitely not going to push most of these hard.
Pagetopping this in here. (Will probably share inthread shortly, sorry to annoy you with it twice Almost50 but I use neighborhoods to hash out drafts for inthread content. )
Examples of refining:
I agree with Nero that Mathblade does seem to be breadcrumbing PR, and the way he's doing it makes me think town, so he'd be removed from the list altogether.
The way Tayl0r is active lurking (an actual example of active lurking!) is to me a strong scum indicator here, and while I see the town stuff Tayl0r has done, Tayl0r's scum interactions and scum active lurking say almost assured scum.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:01 pm
by Nero Cain
my only issue is that it's so blatant and its coming under pressure. Math'll be highly suspect if they don't get nked.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:17 pm
by mastina
If Math is a town PR, him wanting to be involved in this neighborhood makes sense--I still feel like recruiting a second from the masonry makes sense, maybe all three, but after that, if the game's still going, it might be worth neighborizing him if we think that networking with him as a town PR is more valuable than the possible toxicity/infighting it'd possibly cause.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:17 pm
by Titus
Math's not going to get NKed Nero. That's just the reality of it. Math creates too much conflict with people remaining. Of course, I could create a reason for every slot in the game not to be an NK so you have a point.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:19 pm
by Titus
I have a paranoia that Math is solely working with us because A50 has the execute and they have to hunt in King's Army right now because of the public cop mechanic. I don't trust Math not to full on expose us even if he was modconfirmed, but I'd have no choice at that point.
Honestly, if I were scum and I had to modconfirm someone as town, it would be Math.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:20 pm
by Titus
If Math is a PR though, I would actually expect Math to be the public cop.
If we look at the cop checks, it would be Norway who is a VCA failsafe.
A set of three, all of which who are notorious for being impossible to detect on VCA.
Math not wanting to give a readwall but being ok talking about individual reads.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:27 pm
by Nero Cain
math very much did give scumreads though.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:28 pm
by Nero Cain
should someone ask y chemist wasn't on the april wagon?
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:30 pm
by Nero Cain
the thing is, if Math is a town pr and scum know it he's a threat to scum, unless scum are super bad they will shoot that @ some point. The flip side is that Math is actually scum and claiming a pr is a great way to get heat off your back.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:46 pm
by Titus
Nero, I'll leave the asking questions to you for tonight. My landlord just gave me notice, so I need to start looking at moving.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:02 pm
by Nero Cain
did u not pay ur rent?
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:16 pm
by Nero Cain
yeah, maybe i was wrong about math and he really believed that he was doing some awesome gambit by shading us to keep us lynchable
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:40 pm
by mastina
In post 362, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, maybe i was wrong about math and he really believed that he was doing some awesome gambit by shading us to keep us lynchable
Would be my guess as to why he wished I didn't post the two posts I did.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:48 pm
by Nero Cain
I wonder if he actually believes that scum didn't realize shots outside of the hood will poe them down.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:49 pm
by Nero Cain
also DS not knowing MM was in our mega group is kinda 2S2BS but maybe it could be a fake dumb tell?
In post 5531, Something_Smart wrote:Is there any context at all about what the reaction might mean? Why does that reaction not match up with April's claim?
it's indicative of what ability/abilities get used on the target
For the record.
Brand new thought that I never posted to the neighborhood, so y'all not in the neighborhood won't feel excluded, you out here get it first before even they do.
, and yes Motion Detectors, generally depicted as flavorwise doing? You know.
Watching someone.
With your eyes.
As in.
Seeing
something.
Glad to
see
.
As in, hinting that Titus was visited by an Action Investigation role.
This leads me to feel that Misty really has the "glad to see" result on Titus.
The only question is whether she has it as town or has it as scum.
But I don't think she'd fakeclaim this detail then not be able to have interpreted it because apparently I am literally the first person in the game to have connected this dot.
Posting this in here for visibility.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:33 pm
by Nero Cain
complacency=loss so lets not be complacent but it seems like we are in a good spot. it would take 8-night phases to shoot us all so we can just literally lynch in the 11 unconfirms and EZ solve this.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:56 pm
by Nero Cain
if we assume a Math pr and all the town players roles don't matter (assuming Shelly claims or a50 just shoots her) we are left with 7 unclaimed/unconfirmed town. should we just think about massclaim?
Chemist1422
Bell
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:22 pm
by NorwegianboyEE
The "shift" from Math to suddenly being all friendly miiight be scum switching strategy to trying to buddy us? What do you think Nero?
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:25 pm
by Nero Cain
its possible and something I've considered. Math is hinting a pr so should be dead soonish and if Math isn't that needs to be lynched ASAP
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:28 pm
by Nero Cain
like Math was pretty agnostic towards us and then as soon as Titus threatened him with a lynch he started being all nice and I agree that its possible that he could just be scum that is sorta pandering to us now.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:56 pm
by Nero Cain
not really that gung-ho about any of those 3 being scum but I could be wrong. If Math is town could scum literally be DDL and 3 of
Bell
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart
TheGoldenParadox
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:57 pm
by Nero Cain
maybe bell, DS and SS?
Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:40 am
by Titus
Right now, mastina's lean scum analysis looks to be correct.
However, I am objectively going to take a back seat due to my personal stressors.