Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Mafia PT (over)

[Hoopla]

looks like the tribe has spoken;)

[Nancy Drew 39]

looks like the tribe has spoken;)

We’re both fine with whichever one gets executed. I can see pros and cons to either. I just think it’s not smart to get our hands dirty when we don’t need to. If you don’t think that if we successfully hardpush Peta flip that Mena will hard tr us for that, I think you’re kidding yourself and vice-versa.

Rn, we look good regardless of who flips. If it was between SS and Peta then it would obviously be different. We don’t look concerned because we aren’t and don’t need to be. It’s rarely optimal to overplay your hand, that’s the most common reason for scum getting caught.

What we need to do is to figure out the optimal NK depending on the flip. Only NK that would actually look bad for us is Mena.

[Hoopla]

as far as the upcoming NK is concerned, i'm in favour of keeping the PoE wide, so i'd kill the only townie not a viable mis-elim which would be N_M.

or we could even no-kill again. say you blocked BB or someone.

[Nancy Drew 39]

as far as the upcoming NK is concerned, i'm in favour of keeping the PoE wide, so i'd kill the only townie not a viable mis-elim which would be N_M.

or we could even no-kill again. say you blocked BB or someone.

I think we need to optimally try to frame whichever one of them survives to get the executed over SS. We could also do another jk and no kill as well but wouldn’t that make it melo then?

But the only possible problem with the jk is is it believable twice? It could look very bad for us if it backfires because the target will obviously point the finger right at us. Unlike an NK frame which definitely wouldn’t.

[Something_Smart]

I think N_M kill, gross as it is, is our best move. I agree that the no-kill would raise too many eyebrows, and I think that anyone else dying besides N_M would also raise eyebrows that something funny is going on.

It's pretty reasonable to say that scum wanted to shoot a PR and thought there was more heat on S&M.

[Nancy Drew 39]

So I think jk is a bad idea because of how it implicates us unless we actually do it az a save, then it might actually work.

So we spin it as we tried to protect X, that actually could work but a jk frame would almost certainly blow up in our face. So if we jk, we do it like a townie jk would and then it could actually confitown us but only in thar aspect,

So we either do a frame NK or a jk target protect. Under no circumstances, should we attempt a jk frame.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I think N_M kill, gross as it is, is our best move. I agree that the no-kill would raise too many eyebrows, and I think that anyone else dying besides N_M would also raise eyebrows that something funny is going on.

It's pretty reasonable to say that scum wanted to shoot a PR and thought there was more heat on S&M.

What role is NM again? I haven’t really been paying that much attention.

[Something_Smart]

I think we shouldn't try to be fancy. We've already gotten almost too fancy for our own good.

N_M kill will be a bit odd, but he's universally townread, so I think it will rock the boat to the least extent possible.

Pedit: neighborizer

[Nancy Drew 39]

I think we shouldn't try to be fancy. We've already gotten almost too fancy for our own good.

N_M kill will be a bit odd, but he's universally townread, so I think it will rock the boat to the least extent possible.

Pedit: neighborizer

Whomever survives out of Mena/Peta is 100% coming after you though, because no one other than maybe BB is possibly scumreading Infinity, so we need to point to target away from you, right?

Do you think we can do that successfully with an NM kill?

[Something_Smart]

I think if we execute Menalque today then peta won't have the sway to ram through an execution on me. And even if he does it will still be hard for the town to piece together the rest of the game.

And N_M may very well vote me for the lulz, and he'll be a tricky one to 1v1.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Listen remember we still have to jk someone, so town!us would logically try to save the player most likely to eat an NK and if we don’t do that, we’re essentially scumclaiming.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Okay but who should we jk then?

[Something_Smart]

But you also just replaced into the game, so you have a pretty decent excuse for not picking the most optimal target.

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla, maybe?

[Hoopla]

Okay but who should we jk then?

maybe me is an idea.

but probably depends on who we eliminate today.

[Hoopla]

I think we shouldn't try to be fancy. We've already gotten almost too fancy for our own good.

when i used to play poker professionally, my biggest leak was occasionally getting swept up by fancy play syndrome, taking creative but dubious lines, when something more standard is higher EV.

occasionally it bleeds into mafia (like this game), but i'm always happier dabbling with experimental plays when there's no money on the line. then again, it does also suck when weeks of effort invested in a game unravels through nothing but your own hubris.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

how do you have that many cakes :O

[Hoopla]

we also need to remember dave is a 1-shot watcher that has signalled he still has his action.

i was thinking we could redirect him to an untargeted VT, which would allow us to shoot anybody with no risk of him getting a result on anyone.

shame there's no real way to set up a frame on dave watching an incorrect killer. the only way a we could get a tricksy frame happening, is if we could guess N_M's neighbourise target (lets say its BB). then we could redirect dave to watch BB. then whoever dave's watch target is would appear to have N_M visiting. but in order for the frame to work, it still requires us to kill the person dave watches (another piece of guesswork).

conclusion: redirector seems kinda screwy with a watcher. framing isn't really possible, but we should be able to kill unimpeded.

[Hoopla]

how do you have that many cakes :O

i don't think our relationship is quite yet at the level where we start divulging secrets like that.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Guys we’re golden, Mena is our honourary scumteam member now. He wants to flip two towns. How did things go so extremely well in our favour? This is amazing.

I think it’s seriously possible we all endgame which would be awesome. That would be one of the greatest scum victories for me since Coalition where me and Gamma made history by both being in the failed coalition and still endgaming.

[Hoopla]

i really think you're not thinking through what happens if we flip mena today.

when he flips town, he proves that on N1 scum killed mena or scum no killed.

SS is the probably considered the top candidate for a scum kill on mena N1, and the other option is if the town comes round to a no kill gambit which would be S&M. there's a very real chance you two are the top two suspects tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

I disagree that I'm the top suspect for killing Menalque N1.

[Something_Smart]

I also disagree that that will be the first thing on anyone's mind.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I also disagree that that will be the first thing on anyone's mind.

@Hoopla if that were true than why are we not Mena’s top sr anymore?

Mena listed a whole bunch of suspects post-flip which isn’t any of us. It’s a risk either way but we managed to convince the played that wanted to autokill us on replace in to have us way down on their list. The main reason Lillith looked so scummy is that she was pushing Mena lockscum angle due to the jk and that’s precisely why I’m doing my damndest to distance us from an uberscummy stance that would ultimately fuck us.

Why couldn’t town!Lillith jk Mena and no NK and arrive at the same conclusion as Dave? Us working overtime to save him would look hella suspicious for the exact reasons you’re claiming. BB probably wants Peta over Mena but now I’ve got it set up that I can go either way and it not look scummy.

I do think that it’s probably better to execute Peta if only because Mena - contrary to what you’re saying @Hoopla is less likely to come after SS but the people harpushing either flip will look the scummiest here especially us.

Pooky is probably better at making pushes than I am but I can always justify my vote with it being deadline. Either Peta or Mena will be elimed tomorrow I think > SS.

I think Peta is slightly better but probably not game changing. Also remember that Peta refused to even consider the possibility of a scum no kill and Mena’s theory is that he was actually the NK target which is great for us. So no it doesn’t hurt us either way.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

SS I think Peta is better for us than Mena and if we flip him. that false claim thing will come back to bite you. Better to argue it’s extremely likely than a slam dunk.