Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Aristeia]

also wouldnt you get switched out for another scumread and then we would be kinda screwed if we did your plan?

[Tanner]

also wouldnt you get switched out for another scumread and then we would be kinda screwed if we did your plan?

not if we correctly hit on the other two scumreads that would go with me. even if i did get swapped in that scenario, it would *probably* still be safe to vote the person i got swapped with. and if they flipped red, that would mean that the two collectively scummiest people were town, which uh. would at least tell us that our reads are fucked?

[Aristeia]

you are too smart for me ~.~

[Aristeia]

i just wanted to cuddle and eat strawberries and drink some hot cocoa

[Lukewarm]

Basically, I have been tracking where Tanner is angling himself for, to see if he angled himself for the Wall once his Keep plan stopped working, because the Wall is the hardest game for the town to win, easiest for the scum to win. So, kinda where I would expect him to angle for as scum, but kinda where I would be expecting him to avoid as town given

the keep is still my favourite choice due to it being the easiest and me being bad at mafia, but eh.

And, he kinda has been. I'm pulling up the places where Tanner has mentioned going since he said he no longer wants the keep.

Spoiler:

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

assuming this is asking as town - solely depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there. maybe saying it out loud is the mistake here, but /shrug.

Actually maybe 3 scummiest at the gate?

i would support this.

i want to say gate, so that i don't end up there.

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

There has been no posts about whether it makes sense for him to go to the Keep. There has been multiple posts about being against the Gate. And stated preference towards the Wall.

So yes, I have some paranoia on Tanner, in a "This is how I would be approaching the game as scum" - Come up with a plan to try and win the hardest mini game, but if that plan doesn't pan out, lean towards the wall because it would then be the easiest game to win, and I don't really think I am that good at the game, so should probably place myself at the easier game.

-----

Do I think that this is a slam dunk case on Tanner - no. That is why I was not out here shouting it into the streets. It was something that I have been keeping an eye on though, to see how it played out once people started actually locking into places. -- and it is something that makes me uncomfortable agreeing to vote him right now.

So, when I saw that being suggested I felt the need to explain it. Because if I just agreed to it, and then no swap happened, being in the keep with ari, tanner, and myself scares me that Ari would vote for Tanner before I got a chance to voice my concern and us all talk about it. But if I said no to that plan, I knew that people would want to know why. So, here we are.

[Aristeia]

ok i would not jump into tanner's arms immediately I am not that easy ~.~

[VP Baltar]

This is simple. Tanner, imaginality and I go to the gate.

[Lukewarm]

ok i would not jump into tanner's arms immediately I am not that easy ~.~

Maybe not, but the idea felt like it would be a night mare. I would have to on the spot decide if you were going to vote tanner right away (giving scum tanner the win) or if I needed to try and preempt that by voting you, giving you the win if I had it backwards or if I was going to have the time to actually talk with you both.

All I was trying to do was explain that I would not agree with imaginality's plan if Tanner was the third and why, but then it turned into A Thing

[Tanner]

right. i did not talk about wanting to go to the keep anymore because the consensus has been that we should throw the overall towniest person there, and that that person is implosion.

your "here's what i would do as scum and here's how tanner is doing it" is great, but it misses one key detail. i am not you. i would almost never open the game as scum with "hurr durr i is town let me go to keep". you know why? because there's multiple people here that have decent knowledge of my meta, and they could very likely tell if i was actually attempting a powertown game or if i was faking it. so unless the scumteam was *exactly* vp/ari/tanner, that plan won't work. besides, your "i'd try to have a plan to win the keep, but if that didn't work, i'd try to go to the wall because that's easiest", okay, good for you. i'm no don corleone, but i think i'm decent as scum, and i definitely wouldn't immediately run to the wall. here's where i would write "i'd be fine letting a less-experienced scumbuddy take the wall", but i'm also not sure how many people here actually are less experienced at scum than me, but i digress.

[Tanner]

This is simple. Tanner, imaginality and I go to the gate.

that's gonna be a clownfest, count me in. i'll vote gate approximately 24 hours from now if nobody has any objections to the above.

(yes, i know i said i don't want gate and now i'm agreeing to go to the gate, don't @ me)

[VP Baltar]

I will also vote gate unless I hear otherwise.

[numberQ]

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

Tanner agreeing to go to the Gate could be scum taking an out from the mess that Lukewarm pointed out. But town could just as easily do that for nearly the exact same reason.

[Aristeia]

I don't see why you would go to gate if you think you can powertown yourself into being UTR :/

[Tanner]

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

interesting that you come to that conclusion? if we're both being persuasive, wouldn't that mean that both our points are good, and that therefore it's possible we're t/t?

[Tanner]

I don't see why you would go to gate if you think you can powertown yourself into being UTR :/

why would i not? being able to make myself utr later on is going to come in handy no matter what location i go to. i originally brought it up alongside keep specifically because my plan was to take two scummy people with me.

[Aristeia]

because dont the scum just make you IC and then we r down one UTR?

[Tanner]

i'm not utr yet, at least by the looks of it. and if they don't want to gamble on whether i'll be able to do that, then they're free to ic me.

i know it's not ideal. but i vaguely remember baltar saying some reasons why the three of us should go to the gate rather than the wall, and me thinking that they were decent, so i'm sheeping past!me.

[numberQ]

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

interesting that you come to that conclusion? if we're both being persuasive, wouldn't that mean that both our points are good, and that therefore it's possible we're t/t?

Yeah it's possible. But the shape of the interaction feels like TvS in my gut. I can't really put my finger on a concrete reason, which sometimes means I'm full of shit, but for now that's just what I feel.

[Aristeia]

I don't get why you will obvtown at Keep but not Obvtown at gate if you r going to obvtown...?

[Aristeia]

is it bad that I am now getting paranoid that the reason you don't want to go to keep with me is because you don't want to lie to me and get me to vote for you because you would feel guilty?

[implosion]

I'm okay with VP's plan (and leaving NumberQ/DArby/Toog at wall). Anyone at that gate is probably a useful IC and any of them being swapped out is probably a swap that can be read into to some degree one way or another.

We're getting to the point where I think it is valuable to keep reads closer to our chests, since we're coalescing around an actual plan. That's not to say we shouldn't keep discussing things and if there are objections to the plan they can be raised, but finer grained reads can be kept for later. The interaction with Toog saying they're getting bored is interesting, I think mech talk in this setup kind of bridges a gap where there's incentive to hide one's own reads in principle.

If there are no objections in the near future I'll head to Keep.

[Tanner]

I don't get why you will obvtown at Keep but not Obvtown at gate if you r going to obvtown...?

i mean, the plan was for me to obvtown at keep, and bring two scumreads with me. the first problem is that that plan is gone. the second problem is that i am not actually able to obvtown at will, as much as i want to be able to. like, i entered the game hoping it's gonna be the best case scenario where i'm gonna be townread and it's gonna be an easy victory at keep and etc. but by the looks of it, it's not one of those games. so i might as well accept the plan of going to gate.

like, this feels like a confusing mess of a question that's also dependent on me being able to obvtown anytime i want, which, uh, is not quite the case.

[Tanner]

oh wait, baltar said originally said we should go at wall, not gate. and imaginality talked about going to the gate. meh, i don't dislike it. i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can, but considering this is one of those games where pretty much everyone suspects me to some degree, me being at the gate is not actually a very clear-cut decision for scum. alright.

[VP Baltar]

oh wait, baltar said originally said we should go at wall, not gate. and imaginality talked about going to the gate. meh, i don't dislike it. i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can, but considering this is one of those games where pretty much everyone suspects me to some degree, me being at the gate is not actually a very clear-cut decision for scum. alright.

Almost posted that I didn't remember saying that, but I also have Swiss cheese brain and didn't have been too busy with work this morning to go fact check.

Fwiw, I think the three of us are just the right amount of ambiguous to make an IC clear useful regardless.

[Aristeia]

like, this feels like a confusing mess of a question that's also dependent on me being able to obvtown anytime i want, which, uh, is not quite the case.

If you are locked into a 1v1 fight at the Keep you wouldn't be able to obvtown yourself?