Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Prism]

Chill.

Did you ever tackle my post tracing you/Hectic, btw? Sorry if you did and I'm forgetting/missed it entirely.

I feel like you also changed the topic entirely on 3512, but admittedly the question was a bit WIFOM-y.

[Prism]

You'll probably get the reread tomorrow, by the way. I get that might be a bit frustrating given that I'm A) Actively responding to things right now B) Just said something along the lines of "Well if you wait I might not even pivot to you"

That said, the time/level of focus I take to reading deeply/tracing progressions differs a lot from responding in the moment and I've done enough today that I'm not eager to sink that 2+ hours in right now.

[Prism]

3347 is the post I'm referring to about you/Hectic, btw

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I really only remember your sparing talk and the 1v1 with catboi.

If you look at the way I talked spares with Elements and Puppy at the start of the day - do you really think that's what the third scum on the team does?

Sure it's wifomy but how do I live to endgame to win if I play that tight?

Remember scum don't need to all come out for spares to push spares - in fact in this setup if Chara has 4 spare votes from non-scum, it could get hammered by a triple vote to win.

Sparing town on D1 actually increases the scum ability to get to a chara-win on D2 because at D2 after a townD1 spare the game looks like 7 town 3 scum, and only 6 votes needed to spare, so 3-townvotes on a Chara would get them the win.

Looking at the scum-play so far, their plan was probably to push for spares off the bat and then they rotated to trying to get bus-credit so that puppy could win on D2 off elements dying on D1 - again Chara only needs 4 town votes on Chara to hammer itself home - same as D1.

I don't think their plan was to go down this road where the last scum has to survive multiple elims down genocide path.

Now if we know this, where is the last scum on the Bus? When did the scum team decide on the plan and when was it decided that they were going to Bus Elements on D1 to play this way?

My vote is at an awkward timing - but it shows that it was not pre-planned with intent - the scum decided to bus elements on purpose and intent. Beeboy didn't want to play the game - he told his buddies in the thread to throw this gambit. Who fits here? Not me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think it's clear, with the further posts given by Hectic, that you had reasons to be town but weren't locked in as such. Skimming his ISO this is also clear in posts like 1601. 1868 clearly speculates you as non-Chara scum. These are all well before 2334, the post you first cite here and elsewhere that I can see.

I disagree about 1601, it seems like he mentions me along with 3 others in the context of a suji-chara - I don't see how that is a serious suspicion of me.

I also disagree about 1868 - he's dismissing the prob of me being a chara-scum, saying instead that I could be non-chara scum.

Neither of these posts were more than one-offs and he did not expand on either - I don't even remember reading them much less feeling the need to respond by attacking him.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I didn't find that persuasive. A Chara is far less likely to give up than regular scum on D1, given they just need to survive 1 day and they're home free most likely. So, you focusing on Ele being exactly Chara is very strange.

This is the point you found convincing right?

[Prism]

Rereading that snippet, my thoughts weren't quite Hectic's. Hectic is focusing specifically on the disconnect between the "Ele giving up" and "Ele=Chara" claims.

For my own end, I thought specifically Chara was a bit strange, but I've noticed others are typically a lot more confident in calling people PRs/specific roles whereas I try and stick to alignments (...I didn't really follow this Day 2, though, and it probably bit me). I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt at that point, and am still pretty inclined to.

I didn't think there was much to really point to either way for Ele-scum (Chara vs. non-Chara). I just felt the push was weirdly strong and specific (I remember language like "comical" stuck out to me)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the dude flipped from Let's Spare Pooky to Pooky is the Chara with like nothing in between. I think comical is the right word for that progression.

[Prism]

Like my thought on reading this phrase:

Like it's just comical his progression on me and it feels like a Chara that just gave up lol.

Was that it was a little bit strong and more specific than I personally agreed with. The former was a minor ping but nothing major, esp with his flip. The latter happens all the time and I don't put a lot of stock in it. (I don't like to go for PR reads unless I feel forced to, for example. The only example that springs to my mind on MS where I tried I'm pretty sure I hit VT lmao)

P-Edit: I mean, I think it was definitely underexplained at a minimum and agree that "comical" is a good descriptor given his flip. My point was just that it's a very strongly negative word, and I definitely noticed that both in hindsight and I'm pretty sure at the time I first saw it.

That doesn't mean you're scum for it: My point in 3347 was more that Hectic's points+progression on you seem plausible

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Do you think it's plausible that Elements and Puppy both decided to scum-theater with their third-scum-Pooky in the first pages of the game and it wasn't 2 bad guys trying to buddy me to advocate for spares with them?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

in that Hectic actually opened the day going through a variety of scumreads-me and Tanner, for example-but perhaps his progression on Puppy specifically does need a closer look.

What did you think about his progression on Puppy?

[Prism]

I'd have to look back, but I don't think this is a fair question.

When I speak as to who scum is overall, I'm being comparative. In a vacuum, I'd probably say no, it's not very plausible. When given information that other people are likely town for implausible-scum reasons of their own, suddenly I'm forced to weigh them against each other, and their chance goes up.

When everyone is playing extremely well and has a lot of plausible reasons for why they're town, the bar gets very high. I think it's fair to say that whoever is scum this game has played exceptionally well, with (no offense) the exceptions of Lavender or maybe Krazy.

At this point I'm really talking around the issue though, rather than reading and giving you a direct, straight shot of an answer as to what I think you are based off those interactions.

[Prism]

I haven't read his progression on Puppy, and it's part of project #2 (Reread Hectic)

At this point we're about hitting my limit unless you want me to start hipfiring off of bad memory. I don't remember a lot about Hectic being on Puppy earlier Day 2, but I do remember seeing him crop up later in Day 2 and being a bit confused by/interested in it. This is exactly why I think it's worth a better look.

[Prism]

My point with that statement btw was that Hectic really did work his way around several slots, checking into me/Tanner for sure, before settling on Suji. If he feels good about those other slots he started with, combined with a few reads from Day 1, I think it's pretty reasonable for him to take the approach he did Day 2 about just wanting to flip Suji and call it a day.

Simultaneously, if he is scum I think your point about checking into the Puppy progression specifically is a promising place to look.

[Prism]

I think it's fair to say that whoever is scum this game has played exceptionally well, with (no offense) the exceptions of Lavender or maybe Krazy.

to be clear to Lav and Krazy: This is in no way a judgment of your towngames, only scumLav or scumKrazy.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'd have to look back, but I don't think this is a fair question.

When I speak as to who scum is overall, I'm being comparative. In a vacuum, I'd probably say no, it's not very plausible. When given information that other people are likely town for implausible-scum reasons of their own, suddenly I'm forced to weigh them against each other, and their chance goes up.

When everyone is playing extremely well and has a lot of plausible reasons for why they're town, the bar gets very high. I think it's fair to say that whoever is scum this game has played exceptionally well, with (no offense) the exceptions of Lavender or maybe Krazy.

At this point I'm really talking around the issue though, rather than reading and giving you a direct, straight shot of an answer as to what I think you are based off those interactions.

That's fair - let me know if I've left things un-answered for you. :3

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't think either of Lav or Krazy are scum.

Krazy because I don't think Puppy has the guts to pile his last scum-mate for an autolose gambiting that the replace-in is good or that the wagon will stall due to town paranoia - think he legit just wanted to get thru D2 at that point and escape.

Lavender is wifomy but I have to imagine she'd much rather prefer hoping that the last few hours of the deadline pass and nobody votes and she gets a win that way rather than walk thru to Mordor on the long road this way - it is unlikely the town-cred she gains from hammering will get her all the way home and I don't think she's the type that would prolong this game when she has a clear shot of winning there by just pretending to be afk.

[Prism]

Yeah, sorry that I can't do more atm. I figured hipfiring where I was at atm, despite my little faith in it, might be marginally more helpful than "idk until i reread lmao" even if it's probably equally useless.

I think this is a good place to call it for me. I've made a lot of noise and talking around posts the last page or two with you but it's clear I need to do the substantive homework I set out for myself.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

thanks for talking things out with me :3

Let's go over his puppy progression when you have a chance later - it's mostly why I'm susp of him - that along with how I felt he was avoiding the thread later. I could just have insane expectations of his ability but I'm kinda dumb like that.

[Morning Tweet]

Sparing town on D1 actually increases the scum ability to get to a chara-win on D2 because at D2 after a townD1 spare the game looks like 7 town 3 scum, and only 6 votes needed to spare, so 3-townvotes on a Chara would get them the win.

Looking at the scum-play so far, their plan was probably to push for spares off the bat and then they rotated to trying to get bus-credit so that puppy could win on D2 off elements dying on D1 - again Chara only needs 4 town votes on Chara to hammer itself home - same as D1.

I don't think their plan was to go down this road where the last scum has to survive multiple elims down genocide path.

This is a really terrible spot that you'd think scum would want to avoid, yeah.

If Hectic is scum, he ruined his chances of being able to push for Puppy's spare after he townread me. Perhaps the plan was to spare me D1 into sparing Puppy D2, I guess? But when scum had to go into salvage mode after the Elements flip, Hectic could not advocate for sparing anyone but me.

And with the genocidal way we decided on playing the game, could scum really expect to try for a spare play? Not only do they need to get us to switch to spare, but they'd also need it to be exactly Puppy

I just.. dont know if they could reasonably try to get Puppy spared.

Now if we know this, where is the last scum on the Bus? When did the scum team decide on the plan and when was it decided that they were going to Bus Elements on D1 to play this way?

My vote is at an awkward timing - but it shows that it was not pre-planned with intent - the scum decided to bus elements on purpose and intent. Beeboy didn't want to play the game - he told his buddies in the thread to throw this gambit. Who fits here? Not me.

Puppy seemed interested in trying to save Elements to me. Seems like they hadn't fully decided that they were going to bus until some point during beeboy's time with the slot.

Doesn't come off as terribly pre-planned. What am I missing that suggests the Elements bus was planned out for a while? Puppy trying to give the slot a chance and voting for Hectic would suggest to me that the early scumread was somewhat of a gambit. This is a terrible place for scum and they'd like to avoid it -- if they can get Not!Elements killed, thatd be great.

I guess just what I'm missing is how your vote clears you in your mind

[Morning Tweet]

Do you think it's plausible that Elements and Puppy both decided to scum-theater with their third-scum-Pooky in the first pages of the game and it wasn't 2 bad guys trying to buddy me to advocate for spares with them?

I can't even remember what we're referring to here.

Ah I see... lots of love and sparing being thrown around by you three. Scary that those advocating the most for peace and tranquility were actually the ones out to get us!

Also I can totally see you guys doing that, yes. That sounds awesome. Unless I'm missing part of it, I just see that you all quite liked the sound of sparing ppls, I'm not sure i see where it got really buddy buddy. I think there was one post by Elements saying he, you, and someone else should get spared

[Hectic]

I'll be back tomorrow hopefully! Feeling a little burnt out recently.

[Chara]

won't be here much this weekend, we have family over for some godforsaken reason.
feel better Hectic, get some rest.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'll be back tomorrow hopefully! Feeling a little burnt out recently.

hope you feel better <3

don't set a deadline for coming back, come back when you want to

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I just.. dont know if they could reasonably try to get Puppy spared.

They would need to get Puppy so universally town-read off the Ele flip and Puppy's interactions with him.

Hence why Puppy was saying we could get a chara flip off 2 town-spares - whoever the 3rd scum was had to be opposed or against the plan to maintain distance because it is a longshot to get through.