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Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:11 pm
by Hoopla
In post 3519, Menalque wrote:This is an insanely wolfy and opportunistic hop on, hoopla, and it’s exactly like what you did on D2
no offense, but i'm not really interested in having a prolonged back-and-forth with you. i've made my decision. if you're town, i'm sorry, but the game just makes more sense if you're scum.

i'd rather spend the rest of the day talking with peta/dave/lilith/N_M if they want to talk shop.

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:11 pm
by Menalque
In post 2699, Menalque wrote:
In post 2427, Menalque wrote:I’m pretty sure there is at least one but not 3 scum in (lil, Dave, Best Bird, peta, infinity)
In post 2430, Menalque wrote:
In post 2428, Menalque wrote:I think there is still a decent chance of 1 scum in (hoopla, best bird, NM)
EBWOP
In post 2433, Menalque wrote:
In post 1671, the worst wrote:
vote count 2.06


Menalque (6)
: lilith2013, Infinity 324, JacksonVirgo, Hoopla, Dunnstral, TheGoldenParadox
TheGoldenParadox (2)
: Uncrowned, PenguinPower
JacksonVirgo (1)
: petapan
Infinity 324 (1)
: Menalque

Not voting
: davesaz, Something_Smart, skitter30

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-13 13:00:00)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.


mod notes
:
- skitter30 v/la fridays & saturdays
- JacksonVirgo v/la til 06/11/2020
- quack
There’s also prob 1 scum in (Best Bird, peta, Dave. S_S, skitt)
How does this add up?

If we cross reference the DGB voters with the people who stayed off me D2, who is in both piles

(Best bird, Dave, peta)

There’s also the fact that if there is scum in the 4s it’s (hoopla, NM, best bird) of which I would lean NM, but if it was best bird I think that would spew NM and hoopla town
In post 2800, Menalque wrote:dunn --> dave, Best Bird --> NM --> peta, hoopla --> infinity, lili --> S_S, skitter
In post 2888, Menalque wrote:Strong TR is skitt

Probably TRing S_S again, and I guess I will sheep skitt on infinity

Think hoopla is prob town too tbh

Think lili is prob town mechanically

Max 1 scum in (Best Bird, N_M) imo

Elim through (Dave, peta, Best Bird, N_M) bearing in mind the 1 scum max thing
In post 2949, Menalque wrote:I don't think bird and NM are ever scum together because I don't think JV is a meme-y enough player to take 4 with his scumbuddy

I strongly suspect davesaz would be in place of one of NM/JV if lilith is correct
In post 3079, Menalque wrote:okay, so

I think infinity and hoopla are both locktown by their reactions tbh

I'm pretty deeply unsettled by S_S disappearing like that, especially as there was a moment there when I saw him come online in online users at the bottom of the main page, but then disappeared almost immediately and didn't comment anything in the interim. this is a big question for me now of whether to trust skit's read or not

NM I think is very likely to be town from his reaction

Lilith's reaction was... very meh? not exactly what I'd expect to see from someone who just caught scum, but equally quite plausibly someone from someone who knows I'm lying

peta could have been a scum reaction

Dave could be a scum reaction

BB not here sadly, but could be scum regardless
In post 3110, Menalque wrote:so does anyone have a problem with just sequentially eliminating (Best Bird, Dave, lilith, peta)?

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:12 pm
by Menalque
This is a selection of posts dating back to yesterday where BB has been an active part of my solve

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:12 pm
by Menalque
In post 3525, Hoopla wrote:i've made my decision. if you're town, i'm sorry, but the game just makes more sense if you're scum.
THIS IS SUPER FUCKING SCUMMY AND DON’T FORGET ABOUT IT TOMORROW

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:13 pm
by Menalque
Hoopla is voting me based on lies and when pushed is actively unable or unwilling to provide any reasons for her vote

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:14 pm
by Menalque
She’s also never explained why N_M is cleared beyond a fallacious argument (that I refuted and she didn’t pick me back up on) and she’s talked a good game about teams that make sense but is unable/unwilling to cover how I fit in with the only plausible scumbuddies she’s arguing I have

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:15 pm
by Menalque
In post 3528, Menalque wrote:
In post 3525, Hoopla wrote:i've made my decision. if you're town, i'm sorry, but the game just makes more sense if you're scum.
THIS IS SUPER FUCKING SCUMMY AND DON’T FORGET ABOUT IT TOMORROW

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:15 pm
by petapan
UNVOTE:

i've been worried about hoopla all day but fuck, i don't know. i can try and reread

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:15 pm
by Hoopla
alright, i was misremembering your exact positions. from memory i had you overly focusing on lilith/dave/peta solves.

so, i rescind that point and apologise for the misrep. but it also reinforces my point that you're literally keeping all options open.

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:16 pm
by Menalque
Okay, so I think hoopla and Dave are basically outed scum at this point

They’re outed scum or throwing town, so I’m going to go with outed scum *shrug*

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:17 pm
by Menalque
In post 3533, Hoopla wrote:alright, i was misremembering your exact positions. from memory i had you overly focusing on lilith/dave/peta solves.

so, i rescind that point and apologise for the misrep. but it also reinforces my point that you're literally keeping all options open.
Interesting how your position has swiftly and radically reversed from “town by play” to “obvscum that needs to be eliminated”

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:17 pm
by Menalque
Who are my partners, hoopla?

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:17 pm
by Menalque
...infinity are you scum?

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:19 pm
by Menalque
...S_S are
you
scum?

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:20 pm
by Hoopla
In post 3536, Menalque wrote:Who are my partners, hoopla?
i stand by my logic at the end of 3424.

probably two of SS/BB/infinity.

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:21 pm
by Menalque
Okay,

E x p l a i n

T h a t

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:22 pm
by Menalque
In post 3424, Hoopla wrote:infinity has good partner equity with menalque (he jumped on my push on SS quite easily with no original thought), and when you view the game from a menalque-scum angle that is suspicious timing. SS and BB sitting back while this whole thing rages on makes for good partner equity too.
Or is this literally all you have to say by way of your beliefs on the matter?

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:23 pm
by Hoopla
In post 3535, Menalque wrote:Interesting how your position has swiftly and radically reversed from “town by play” to “obvscum that needs to be eliminated”
the reality is at this point in the game there are good reasons for every player to be town, so "town by play" doesn't cut it when you have a larger amount of suspicious reasons counterbalancing it.

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:24 pm
by Menalque
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=32813

^this is the ISO for my last scumgame btw, where I did high effort

Tell me there’s anything like as much content in there as I’ve got in this thread

And also let’s note that, again, clearly effort isn’t /clearing/ for me, but it is indicative

And the fact is that I’ve made 100 posts more in 2 weeks less when comparing that (one of my highest WIM scumgames) to this (a pretty typical towngame)

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:25 pm
by Menalque
In post 3542, Hoopla wrote:
In post 3535, Menalque wrote:Interesting how your position has swiftly and radically reversed from “town by play” to “obvscum that needs to be eliminated”
the reality is at this point in the game there are good reasons for every player to be town, so "town by play" doesn't cut it when you have a larger amount of suspicious reasons counterbalancing it.
Prithee, tell me what are all the good reasons for everyone else to be town?

Why is N_M locktown? Why is Dave? You have never explained either of those beyond spurious mathematical arguments that I’ve refuted

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:25 pm
by Menalque
Well, I’ve refuted the one on N_M anyway

Idk that you’ve ever actually offered a reason on Dave

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:29 pm
by Menalque
In post 3304, Menalque wrote:
In post 3301, Hoopla wrote:
In post 3299, Infinity 324 wrote:{me, hoopla, mena}

We need to find one more town.
i would gamble the game on the neighbouriser being town.
Does knowing I would actively prioritise getting neighbouriser if I was scum impact this take at all?
In post 3317, Menalque wrote:No I’d pick neighbouriser because I like PTs

This is the problem hoopla, you’re assuming all the decisions made will be to try and play the game to the maximum wincon % but a lot of us make at least some of the decisions for reasons totally unrelated to that, in this case role being part of that

I don’t play PyP to minmax, I play it because I like the people in the game and maybe I’ll get a cool role that I like
Plus just the general problem of induction — just because people in previous games have not chosen neighbouriser as scum, it doesn’t hold that they’ll have done the same in this game

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:31 pm
by Hoopla
In post 3541, Menalque wrote:Or is this literally all you have to say by way of your beliefs on the matter?
this is reasoning that is built from a perspective of PoE that is making assumptions elsewhere. so, i'm not particularly interesting in arguing why the walls of PoE have closed to where they have. incidentally, that is the beauty of PoE. i don't have to get into arguments with scum about why they're scum - that is never a fruitful endeavour.

if you want to talk about my assumptions elsewhere, i'd be more willing to discuss those.

but like i said, i'd rather talk to other sections of the playerlist than get in a protracted back-and-forth with you.

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:45 pm
by Menalque
I am LITERALLY trying to engage you about the flawed assumptions that you’re making in order to create that PoE and you’re dismissing it with the circular logic of “well, I used certain assumptions to make a PoE, you’re in the PoE so I won’t bother to explain my reasons or talk to you because you’re scum because you’re in the PoE, and so I won’t listen to any critiques you have of the way I formed this PoE”

Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:45 pm
by Menalque
BIG BLARING FLASHING RED ALARM THAT HOOPLA IS SCUM, REMEMBER THIS TOMORROW

ALSO DAVE IS SCUM