This leaves Morning Mage and Pickaxe Pete as only potential army on the wagon.
On the Ban all hydras wagon added Nero Sam and GE
Nero is 3P who floated between the wagons
GE was voting the biggest wagon other than himself.
So we’re left with Plus DS Christopher (who I think is Chemist) and Samantha (scully I think)
Rule of three says there’s likely a scum somewhere in this list.
However again none of these were really pushing the wagons iirc (please correct me if I am wrong)
Based on tone this didn’t seem like a scum driven wagon either.
So this game seems to be driven by NT players.
This jives with my 2-8 out of no where scum bus just it was NT.
There's no such thing as a rule of three outside of what titus would call moon logic.
Rule of 3 is a thing but Math misapplies it here. Rule of 3 doesn't apply to every gathering of three. Fwiw, I think Chemist might be scum though.
A planned bus doesn't generate four counters. Scum would abandon the bus.
I have realistically 8 names that could be scum. I'm cutting off at above null right now. That needs to have 4 scum.
Can you look at your notes and see who overlaps?
@Math, Pete couldn't move to a counter without losing the towncred.
Second, if scum are in the ineffectives...that points to SS, jjh... DDL...and you.
I am pretty sure Pickaxe moves to Taylor level based on today's developments.
First sentence: If Pickaxe is scum yes. Then he couldn’t move, making him ineffective.
Second sentence: That’s what the wagon theory indicates yes. It also indicates about 10 other players (more or less). I don’t change a theory because it would make me look better.
The data says what it does. This wagon data will hopefully exonerate me as imho it should.
So a team of Pickaxe Pete, Chemist, + ddl, jjh, ss is your solve?
@Math, You can include Bell since he never voted any wagon as well.
I want to see your theory.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:21 pm
by Nero Cain
there's only a very very small difference in those statements. Trying to lynch 3p over the threat of the town (in this case the kings army) is a known scum tell.)
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:21 pm
by Bell
I voted Gamma, but unvoted when A50 reversed course and argued he was town.
I also voted mastina.
I guess in wagon theory those that don't vote at end of day are more likely to be scum than not?
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:22 pm
by MathBlade
In post 3553, Bell wrote:What are the premises or hypotheses of wagon theory that allow for a conclusion?
Premise A) Everyone who has flipped is flipped accurately aka not bastard.
Premise B) Anyone who claims not town is to be assumed to tell the truth.
Premise C) Find remaining players. If remaining players cannot reach the min possible scum percentage the wagon cannot be scum driven. Assume min 4. 4/20 = 20%. That means of 8 people need at least two scum to be scum driven. This is impossible where as on Ban All Hydras it is improbable but possible.
Premise D) If wagon is not scum driven cannot be a planned bus.
Premise E) If wagon is not scum driven drivers are those with the biggest alignment amount. Clearly 3P.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:23 pm
by Titus
In post 3557, Bell wrote:I voted Gamma, but unvoted when A50 reversed course and argued he was town.
I also voted mastina.
I guess in wagon theory those that don't vote at end of day are more likely to be scum than not?
Nah, it's just that you don't show in any relevant VCA.
Your gamma vote that I saw while conducting the VCs is why you're not lower.
So a team of Pickaxe Pete, Chemist, + ddl, jjh, ss is your solve?
I don’t have a solve. I just started getting into the groove after the crazy shenanigans. I am using wagon theory to inform me who the likely scum are in combination with reads. I don’t know what a good team size is because of the three p claims so my usual methods won’t work.
In post 3553, Bell wrote:What are the premises or hypotheses of wagon theory that allow for a conclusion?
Premise A) Everyone who has flipped is flipped accurately aka not bastard.
Premise B) Anyone who claims not town is to be assumed to tell the truth.
Premise C) Find remaining players. If remaining players cannot reach the min possible scum percentage the wagon cannot be scum driven. Assume min 4. 4/20 = 20%. That means of 8 people need at least two scum to be scum driven. This is impossible where as on Ban All Hydras it is improbable but possible.
Premise D) If wagon is not scum driven cannot be a planned bus.
Premise E) If wagon is not scum driven drivers are those with the biggest alignment amount. Clearly 3P.
*blinks*
None of this makes sense. Scum driven isn't based on hard and fast numbers but momentum.
In post 3553, Bell wrote:What are the premises or hypotheses of wagon theory that allow for a conclusion?
Premise A) Everyone who has flipped is flipped accurately aka not bastard.
Premise B) Anyone who claims not town is to be assumed to tell the truth.
Premise C) Find remaining players. If remaining players cannot reach the min possible scum percentage the wagon cannot be scum driven. Assume min 4. 4/20 = 20%. That means of 8 people need at least two scum to be scum driven. This is impossible where as on Ban All Hydras it is improbable but possible.
Premise D) If wagon is not scum driven cannot be a planned bus.
Premise E) If wagon is not scum driven drivers are those with the biggest alignment amount. Clearly 3P.
*blinks*
None of this makes sense. Scum driven isn't based on hard and fast numbers but momentum.
To get momentum you need numbers and activity. It’s not a hard and fast but it is a good rule. Eg 45 player wagon has three scum it can’t be scum driven.
So a team of Pickaxe Pete, Chemist, + ddl, jjh, ss is your solve?
I don’t have a solve. I just started getting into the groove after the crazy shenanigans. I am using wagon theory to inform me who the likely scum are in combination with reads. I don’t know what a good team size is because of the three p claims so my usual methods won’t work.
Ok. Let's suppose you had to name 5 or 6 scum, not 3p, who would they be? For sake of argument, scum = army = what gamma flipped.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:29 pm
by Pickaxe Pete
In post 3556, Nero Cain wrote:there's only a very very small difference in those statements. Trying to lynch 3p over the threat of the town (in this case the kings army) is a known scum tell.)
Getting a claimed 3P out of the way earlier is ideal in order to avoid interference/uncertainty later.
In post 3556, Nero Cain wrote:there's only a very very small difference in those statements. Trying to lynch 3p over the threat of the town (in this case the kings army) is a known scum tell.)
Getting a claimed 3P out of the way earlier is ideal in order to avoid interference/uncertainty later.
So a team of Pickaxe Pete, Chemist, + ddl, jjh, ss is your solve?
I don’t have a solve. I just started getting into the groove after the crazy shenanigans. I am using wagon theory to inform me who the likely scum are in combination with reads. I don’t know what a good team size is because of the three p claims so my usual methods won’t work.
Ok. Let's suppose you had to name 5 or 6 scum, not 3p, who would they be? For sake of argument, scum = army = what gamma flipped.
For sake of argument
20 alive can’t name any 3P claims so minus 6 is 14. Minus me is 13.
Remove April and Plus who I townread and it becomes down to 10.
Hitting 5/6 scum in that list gives me about 50% odds of picking a scum so I would stick with my top scumreads. I don’t need a solve in that scenario.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:33 pm
by Nero Cain
or maybe you were right, after all, Titus. Lynching a non threat to the town when there are still threats to the town is dumb.
So a team of Pickaxe Pete, Chemist, + ddl, jjh, ss is your solve?
I don’t have a solve. I just started getting into the groove after the crazy shenanigans. I am using wagon theory to inform me who the likely scum are in combination with reads. I don’t know what a good team size is because of the three p claims so my usual methods won’t work.
Ok. Let's suppose you had to name 5 or 6 scum, not 3p, who would they be? For sake of argument, scum = army = what gamma flipped.
For sake of argument
20 alive can’t name any 3P claims so minus 6 is 14. Minus me is 13.
Remove April and Plus who I townread and it becomes down to 10.
Hitting 5/6 scum in that list gives me about 50% odds of picking a scum so I would stick with my top scumreads. I don’t need a solve in that scenario.
I'm trying not to get bogged down in theory to get a simple question answered. This frustration is why I want to lynch you every game.
So a team of Pickaxe Pete, Chemist, + ddl, jjh, ss is your solve?
I don’t have a solve. I just started getting into the groove after the crazy shenanigans. I am using wagon theory to inform me who the likely scum are in combination with reads. I don’t know what a good team size is because of the three p claims so my usual methods won’t work.
Ok. Let's suppose you had to name 5 or 6 scum, not 3p, who would they be? For sake of argument, scum = army = what gamma flipped.
For sake of argument
20 alive can’t name any 3P claims so minus 6 is 14. Minus me is 13.
Remove April and Plus who I townread and it becomes down to 10.
Hitting 5/6 scum in that list gives me about 50% odds of picking a scum so I would stick with my top scumreads. I don’t need a solve in that scenario.
I'm trying not to get bogged down in theory to get a simple question answered. This frustration is why I want to lynch you every game.
Who is group scum and why?
Again. I am not operating like you are this game.
I like JJH for SK as I have mentioned because of theory.
Something smart pings me wrong.
One of plus/Shelly likely scum due to mechanics.
There isn’t enough relational integration because of the spam and BS and 3P driven wagons to sort it out and get a team like I usually do. I am better at noticing this stuff in games like Gistou because I held enough of the cards to make that determination. I don’t have that here.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:42 pm
by Titus
Ok.
What specifically is it that you don't know? You seem rather invested in proving your VCA right, when it's giving you no solid conclusions whatsoever. So let's back away from that. What is it you don't know?
Please separate that from what you don't believe or are currently questioning.
Right now by defending a theory that leads you to nothing definitive is a big waste of time and spammy.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:43 pm
by Nero Cain
In post 3572, MathBlade wrote:I like JJH for SK as I have mentioned because of theory
ehhhhhhhhhh
true, jjh isn't really doing anying and just sitting there but y is he an sk and not group scum?