Mafiascum.net

I’m literally Jesus this game

Sacrificing myself to give you 2 scum, town

Served up for you on a platter

I forgive you, those of you who have sinned against god and all that is holy within mafia by voting me on this sanctified day

In post 3547, Hoopla wrote:incidentally, that is the beauty of PoE. i don't have to get into arguments with scum about why they're scum - that is never a fruitful endeavour.

This is literally just engaging in bad faith

I use PoE a lot, so I know how it works. It never means that you get to just stop engaging with the people in PoE just bc they’re in there

It may mean you don’t change the execution, but you definitely listen and try to engage to get the most out of it if they’re one of the PoE slots that flips town

And you deciding to freeze me out is ESPECIALLY scummy given that you were calling me town with the last 5 pages on play

If that’s a genuine thought process you had, you should be — even if set on executing me — looking to engage me to get the most out of me once I’m dead

But instead you’re actively seeking ways to not do that/to not have to justify yourself for voting and pushing town

Btw, if town loses this game it’s for the classic reasons:

A bunch of town slots just didn’t play and the remainder ignored play to focus on poor mechanics

By which I mean: I’m pretty obviously town. I’m almost willing to guarantee that dead thread is watching this like a slow motion train wreck and going “...b-but... how... are they voting mena here? What the fuck are they doing? Are they throwing?” which side, advantage of not having skin in the game or whatever

But something fucky is going on here with mechanics, that much should be clear. But instead of recognising that and trying to reconcile it to reads and the gamestate, most people here seem fine pretending the gamestate is *not* fucky and just proceeding as normal

In post 3544, Menalque wrote:Prithee, tell me what are all the good reasons for everyone else to be town?

Why is N_M locktown? Why is Dave? You have never explained either of those beyond spurious mathematical arguments that I’ve refuted

ok, fine.

lets start with N_M. you say this a spurious mathematical argument, but it isn't. the odds of something coming up 13 times to 0 implies causality, because if these 13 times were truly just random events, the odds of something coming up 13 to 0 is microscopic.

you don't think from a large-scale data perspective, but i do - this is simply how my brain interprets information. i think when you observe a big enough difference in the numbers, it implies a reason why. sure, scum subvert this by picking a role with mostly town utility, but they don't. in fact, they never have, and it's important to respect the observed data points across that many games.

to me, (and this may just be a philosophical difference on the nature of scumhunting accuracy) but i think there is a greater margin of error in relying on behavioural tells. there have been plenty of times i've gone all-in on reads i've thought were obvtown and been wrong. to me, relying on the numbers is simply more reliable from a probabilistic perspective.

~~

i'm less sold on dave being town in a vacuum. in my 3424, i was more arguing from the perspective of who was scum with you, and i just don't see dave's play going all in on you today as a bus, especially when there are plenty of other options open today. i'd be more willing to entertain the idea of dave as scum if you're town, but as it stands, a suboptimal role pick as scum that early in the draft i just don't see as being likely - especially considering that if dave is scum it's likely he's scum's top pick in the draft.

his role claim has also been confirmed by peta, so unless he's scum with peta, i'm comfortable relying on dave's claim being true (and thus likely town).

I am going to bed now because it’s 3am here and I have a fairly important meeting with immigration tomorrow but I still have fairly major issues with some stuff you’re saying that I will address tomorrow

In post 3554, Menalque wrote:And you deciding to freeze me out is ESPECIALLY scummy given that you were calling me town with the last 5 pages on play

If that’s a genuine thought process you had, you should be — even if set on executing me — looking to engage me to get the most out of me once I’m dead

But instead you’re actively seeking ways to not do that/to not have to justify yourself for voting and pushing town

and you were calling me town 5 pages ago too? so what.

was your town read on me completely conditional on me reading you as town/defending you? seems like you're pissed that you had me pocketed/in your corner, and now that i'm not you're freaking out.

not everyone attacking you is scum, you know.

can someone else please step up and talk with me about the gamestate? doesn't have to be full solving attempts.

i just want to hear a better balance of voices, as it seems like half the playerlist is twiddling their thumbs and letting the thread spiral unchecked.

Hi I’m here, still just as confident hoopla and mena are town

Not getting into 1v1s with scumreads is 100% valid and not only doesn’t clog the thread with nonsense, but also saves you a lot of headache.

At this point I’m not really sure what to say/do. If people are insisting on limming my top townreads, so be it I guess. Hoopla, you seem to be SRing mena because he disagrees with your logic, and because he’s willing to consider very low-probability events—I think he may be weighting those possibilities too highly, but I think that’s what town needs to be doing right now to some extent. I’d like you to think about whether you really think mena is scum, or if you think we need to elim mena to move the gamestate forward and are convincing yourself mena is scum as a result.

In post 3564, Infinity 324 wrote:I’d like you to think about whether you really think mena is scum, or if you think we need to elim mena to move the gamestate forward and are convincing yourself mena is scum as a result.

i don't really. or rather, i'm not confident on anything behavioural.

at the end of the day, i wouldn't be surprised if mena was town. now that the temperature has fallen a little, his explosion at me in the last few pages did town.

but i am a creature of habit, and in times of doubt when i am truly lost, i will always favour mechanical reasons over interpersonal ones. without veering too much into real life personality stuff, it's been a dawning realisation in recent times that this is largely who i am. i am much more comfortable with concepts & things rather than with the fickle, capricious nature of people.

it probably explains how my more detached/analysing from outer type of playstyle has come about. in any case, i do try to read people personally, interact, and take emotion/tone into consideration, but if i'm honest with myself it's just supplemental. my intuition at its deepest is more in bed with logic/left hemisphere type thinking.

the only thing i know for certain is that this game is driving me bonkers in a way that mafia hasn't done to me in a long time.

@infinity

can you run me through why peta makes the most sense to you?

In post 3566, Hoopla wrote:the only thing i know for certain is that this game is driving me bonkers in a way that mafia hasn't done to me in a long time.

relatable but also everything feels so different to me now

Hoopla wrote:@infinity

can you run me through why peta makes the most sense to you?

Honestly there's not too much I can say except my heart isn't really anywhere else. I'd like to vote him or bird today. You convinced me for a second that s_s was likely to be scum, but I didn't feel it--specifically, I feel a real intention to uncover information with the questions he's been asking, even if he hasn't committed many stances yet. I also want to trust skitter's read on s_s, especially since it was her strongest townread and iirc they have history together. I have a feeling the last scum is lilith or maybe dave, but I just remembered something that s_s said a while ago which is that lilith can't NK and use her JK if scum, so that could potentially back her into a corner if we get both her scumbuddies. I also want to trust you in not limming her today, and maybe getting a scumflip or two would help to make more things clear around her slot. Flipping peta and night actions could help sort dave.

I have felt that peta is towny for a while, but I haven't liked the way he's played this day. He claims not to be very confident about the gamestate, but he pushes against me/mena/you so strongly, which doesn't seem to match up for me. I mentioned this earlier, but since scum only needs 2 mislims, they don't need to think bigger picture later on. Peta's play today has fit with a scum agenda since it seems to be looking at the next 1-2 elims instead of trying to solve the whole game. Also, in our interactions earlier, I thought there was a decent chance I would be able to appeal to town!him by drawing connections with things he was thinking earlier in the game. Specifically, I thought town!him would be likely to see the same thing that happened with dunn happening again now. But he didn't, so I thought that was relatively scum-indicative.

In post 3550, Menalque wrote:I’m literally Jesus this game

Sacrificing myself to give you 2 scum, town

You are starting to sound like FL lol

again not sure why you're thinking that faking analysis is outside my capacity - it's not.

i've tried to explain things and why i thought for all him WIM that menalque pushing for a vote on the claimed jailkeeper when there's no other plausible explanation for the blocked nightkill is scummy. i can try to go over my thoughts on every player in a little more detail tomorrow but i don't know that it's gonna change much

game is hard right now because the conversations are so lopsided

hmm, okay. i need to have a coffee and rethink this.

UNVOTE:

sorry everyone for being so scatter-brained. i got cold feet on D2 when we put menalque to E-1 and that same feeling is popping up again. that was a convincing display of ~emotions~. i'm not usually this gun-shy, so i don't know what to do other than admit i'm lost.

has anyone played with menalque-scum before? how does he usually react when he's at E-1/under extreme pressure? is this behaviour within his scum-range?

In post 3561, Hoopla wrote:can someone else please step up and talk with me about the gamestate?

Gladly.

Usually it becomes easier to read people in a critical situation like this because scum start to more transparently play to their wincons.

But almost everybody is transparently playing to their hypothetical wincon if they are scum.

I really want to believe that Menalque is town and his persecution complex is real but him blindly sheeping skitter and pushing on lilith is really hard to wrap my head around.

i'm almost at the point where i'm just going to give up and tagteam with infinity. he's been the only player who has been a consistent beacon of reason.

if he's scum. fine. i'll gamble the game on that.