Mafiascum.net

In post 3546, Disaster Cartel wrote:(1) okay, why? this solve just seems so collectively off and doesn't really fit with the gamestate yesterday at all. not to mention, from what I can see you spent far more time trying to undercut skitter than trying to focus on bork, and I think the simplest explanation for that is that bork was amenable to voting me and skitt very clearly wasn't going to. I think you wanted to win yesterday, and the simplest way to do that was to try to undermine my key supporter and disregard... basically anything else

I'm not really sure what to tell you, it seemed like it made a lot of sense to me at the time. The biggest thing I look for in teams in the late game is who is playing aligned, and for a long time you bork and VFT just did not want to vote each other. It especially made sense to me because if bork was scum he really didn't want to have to NK someone and make people paranoid. Speaking of, the reason why I didn't out my bork scumread until I thought the game was lost is because 1. People would've though I was insane and I would've lost credibility 2. More importantly, if I was wrong about bork they could've left him alive to fuel my paranoia.

In post 3546, Disaster Cartel wrote:(2) which leads me into this -- I've cited two posts of yours above from yesterday where you said that you didn't think mom/me were teamed together because of the way the day unfolded. if this was a genuine thought process, I don't think you come in today and after briefly AtEing and voting notsci, switching back to me bc you think I'm the easiest miselim. basically the only person who really TRs me is skitt and bork kinda did. so from scum!you perspective pushing me makes a lot of sense, but from town!you perspective you'd have to be totally disregarding your process from yesterday which doesn't follow because

(3) there's no real reason you provide why if yesterday "all these possibilities were more likely than #2" things are now different. again, I think if you're town you try to reevaluate given that you'd have been consistently wrong throughout the game. instead, you're trying to have your cake and eat it too by going "oh man my reads have been really bad whoopsie... but btw it *is* still mena, and oh, don't worry about the fact that I was trying to push him yesterday vs the confscum flip we have on mom". it's like you're not actually trying to generate any possibilities for your supposed scenario #3, you're just trying to bend things back around to me being scum

The reality is that I think a lot of the game doesn't make sense, and until I find a solve without that feels at all reasonable, I think you just have to be scum here. You kind of ignore a pretty obvious reason why a you/mom scumteam becomes more likely with mom's scumflip, and that's because...mom flipped scum. You being town and mom being scum seems even more unlikely to me, because I really think scum could've gotten you limmed yesterday.

I understand why you're frustrated I seem to not be re-evaluating the other players on the list, but I now have 3 rock-solid townreads and even if one of them is wrong notsci is much townier than you here. I've talked about these reads before, but basically I don't think prism's day 3 play makes any sense from scum, I don't think skitt bussing mom makes any sense, and cakez has felt very town emotionally and he would have to have bussed quite a bit this game to be scum, something that he's supposed to be allergic to now.

In post 3546, Disaster Cartel wrote:(4) this also just... doesn't really follow? how has the likelihood of my doing scum theatre different today vs yesterday?

I didn't say this, I said that it wasn't enough to outweigh my other evidence yesterday and it is today. The other arguments for a you/VFT team got much much weaker with mom's scumflip.

In post 3546, Disaster Cartel wrote:(5) this feels like you're trying to walk back on notsci bc you don't think he's the most likely slot you can wagon today, and because you think he's less of a threat at this point than I am. when notsci entered he was saying "it's me or infinity" and you were perfectly happy to go after him. now he's shown like any doubt you're trying to bring him on board with you and switching your target back to me, despite this not being consistent with your supposed earlier thought processes

(6) but you just said earlier that you think one of your biggest mistakes this game was NOT going against consensus earlier in the game. why is this different now? you were making an issue of how going with consensus has led to us to here and that you wish you hadn't, only now you're switching back to "well, guess I'd better go with consensus bc I don't wanna be wrong again"

Mena I started showing doubt on notsci when he started making towny posts, I'm pretty sure he didn't show doubt at all up until that point. I also think notsci is the most likely player to get limmed besides me today

I'm not quite sure why I said 6, because I don't really scumread anyone outside the consensus anyway, but if I did it's true I would certainly have difficulty pushing them. Yes it would absolutely be correct, but there's only so many times you can push against consensus and be wrong before it wears you down.

and this is exactly the crux of my issue with you -- it's that we *have* to be scum for you, and I think that's something you need a lot more than scum than as town. I don't think that it's true that any of the other slots left bar I guess skitt have been that much more towny than us, but you keep repeating it like it's fact. again, we were right on nacho and opposed that. I was right on NM and pushed that. my misses were on peta and I guess kind of on mom in that even tho I called it I wasn't able to really push it yesterday due to extenuating circumstances.

so I think you're kind of backed into scum reading us because it was more convenient earlier and bc there's at least one town slot who's unsure on our alignment and so you think we're more viable than the others are.

I don't think I'm ignoring anything on the mom/us scumflip thing? my point is that your argument yesterday was "it seems unlikely there's more than 1 scum in mom/DC". if that's not what you were saying, explain how posts like 3328 make sense? and your framing is very disingenuous -- you say scum could have gotten us flipped yesterday -- I think scum tried really hard to get us flipped yesterday and p much only didn't manage to bc of skitter! but you're not considering things like cakez/iverson bc, again, it's a lot easier for you to push a narrative that we're scum and to try and get our flip given how we're perceived by others in the game than by seriously reconsidering us and looking at the others

why does our game make sense from scum in a way that prism's doesn't? cakez has had broadly similar positions to us throughout the game so why is it that we're apparently scum and he's not there? it just comes down to the "feeling very town emotionally" thing or what

and besides which, what exactly has notsci done in the last like, 6-7 pages that moved him from the person you wanted to vote to being "much townier" than us

In post 3547, Disaster Cartel wrote:only there's a very large difference here which is that skitt is in a hydra, something you've been totally neglecting as part of this. I don't *need* to sort skitter head if she's paired with someone else who I have a very good read rate on, and lili is someone who after reading her wrong in our first couple of games, I'm p sure I've read correctly in every game we've had since.

I didn't think about this, this makes sense

In post 3552, Infinity 324 wrote:I said that it wasn't enough to outweigh my other evidence yesterday and it is today

fine, why

if you think it's not theatre today, why didn't you think that yesterday

idgi

In post 3554, Disaster Cartel wrote:and this is exactly the crux of my issue with you -- it's that we *have* to be scum for you, and I think that's something you need a lot more than scum than as town.

This is only partly true, I said in UGC that it's a bit +scum for me to have too many TRs but it also happens to me most games as town.

In post 3553, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3546, Disaster Cartel wrote:(5) this feels like you're trying to walk back on notsci bc you don't think he's the most likely slot you can wagon today, and because you think he's less of a threat at this point than I am. when notsci entered he was saying "it's me or infinity" and you were perfectly happy to go after him. now he's shown like any doubt you're trying to bring him on board with you and switching your target back to me, despite this not being consistent with your supposed earlier thought processes

(6) but you just said earlier that you think one of your biggest mistakes this game was NOT going against consensus earlier in the game. why is this different now? you were making an issue of how going with consensus has led to us to here and that you wish you hadn't, only now you're switching back to "well, guess I'd better go with consensus bc I don't wanna be wrong again"

Mena I started showing doubt on notsci when he started making towny posts, I'm pretty sure he didn't show doubt at all up until that point. I also think notsci is the most likely player to get limmed besides me today

I'm not quite sure why I said 6, because I don't really scumread anyone outside the consensus anyway, but if I did it's true I would certainly have difficulty pushing them. Yes it would absolutely be correct, but there's only so many times you can push against consensus and be wrong before it wears you down.

what were the particularly towny posts that notsci made that made you reconsider then?

and you haven't pushed outside of consensus all game! yet the game has gone completely off the rails and you said you considered that following of consensus a mistake only to hit today and to... go after the probably most consensus-y scumread that's not you (and maybe not notsci but I think notsci has more people who are ambivalent on him than are on our slot)?

I can find quotes for why I TR people later in the day. I'm weighting the cakez not bussing thing very heavily, I don't really see a reason for cakez to be like "I'm changing how I play scum" but then just go back on it this game for no real reason

In post 3557, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3554, Disaster Cartel wrote:and this is exactly the crux of my issue with you -- it's that we *have* to be scum for you, and I think that's something you need a lot more than scum than as town.

This is only partly true, I said in UGC that it's a bit +scum for me to have too many TRs but it also happens to me most games as town.

right but I also don't think this makes sense given the situation we're in. like scum need only one more lim to win. instead of like really going back through and wanting to make sure all your TRs are justified it seems like you're doubling down on them for flimsy reasons (especially on prism who I think has a lot of partner equity with you) and pushing us instead. it feels a lot more like you want to go for the win today now that you've climbed down from the woe is me stuff yesterday and that the easiest way for you to do that is to come after us, much in the same vein you did yesterday

the big difference is that now my move is complete and I can actually take time to respond to this and to solve the game and I don't need to rely on skitt to stop us losing

okay fine, I'll wait and see on the quotes

where did cakez say that he's not bussing anymore?

and cakez had a prior meta of bussing heavily?

In post 3558, Disaster Cartel wrote:and you haven't pushed outside of consensus all game! yet the game has gone completely off the rails and you said you considered that following of consensus a mistake only to hit today and to... go after the probably most consensus-y scumread that's not you (and maybe not notsci but I think notsci has more people who are ambivalent on him than are on our slot)?

Well yesterday my solve was very outside consensus. I guess what I'm trying to say is that me being wrong emotionally makes me really want to just trust others' reads. Mom flipping scum does make going inside consensus a bit more reasonable too, because it means scum aren't in control of the game most likely.

bc that seems to be the implication of what ur saying in 3559

In post 3561, Disaster Cartel wrote:okay fine, I'll wait and see on the quotes

where did cakez say that he's not bussing anymore?

In post 3562, Disaster Cartel wrote:and cakez had a prior meta of bussing heavily?

Yeah cakez had a meta of bussing a lot and pooky said somewhere that he's now allergic to bussing, I made a mental note of it. Will try to find it.

Obviously I don't think my townreads are for flimsy reasons, yesterday I went through my reasons for TRing prism. I'm weighting my salsa read a decent amount here, which makes me more comfortable having a strong TR on a strong scum player.

In post 3563, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3558, Disaster Cartel wrote:and you haven't pushed outside of consensus all game! yet the game has gone completely off the rails and you said you considered that following of consensus a mistake only to hit today and to... go after the probably most consensus-y scumread that's not you (and maybe not notsci but I think notsci has more people who are ambivalent on him than are on our slot)?

Well yesterday my solve was very outside consensus. I guess what I'm trying to say is that me being wrong emotionally makes me really want to just trust others' reads. Mom flipping scum does make going inside consensus a bit more reasonable too, because it means scum aren't in control of the game most likely.

I guess that's true but your "solve" yesterday also involved pushing two slots I know to be town as being scum, one who I'm p sure is town to be scum, and all of that away from confscum so you can see why I'm a liiiil bit sceptical here. also you say you wanna trust others reads: but one of the main things you're trying to argue is that skitt is just wrong on us despite skitt being p much without a doubt the best person on mafiascum(dot)net at reading me. like literally there is nobody else who reads me as consistently well as skitter does as both alignments, and while I have fooled her when I've been scum in the past it's been a loooong ass time.

and I also don't get the "scum not in control of the game" thing. like there's something to be said for that with mom flipping but I don't think we see the first two days be town flips without scum having pretty decent control of the game? or like what's your alternative explanation for how we're still a day away from even having a shot at winning if scum haven't had decent control over the game so far

In post 3565, Infinity 324 wrote:Yeah cakez had a meta of bussing a lot and pooky said somewhere that he's now allergic to bussing, I made a mental note of it. Will try to find it.

please, bc I'd like to see this

In post 3556, Disaster Cartel wrote:

In post 3552, Infinity 324 wrote:I said that it wasn't enough to outweigh my other evidence yesterday and it is today

fine, why

if you think it's not theatre today, why didn't you think that yesterday

idgi

I'm not sure how many ways I can say the same thing until you understand. D3 I thought you and skitt were scum together for other reasons (skitt pushing mom was a big one) which to me outweighed the unlikeliness of you/lilith being scum theater. Now that those reasons are gone, you/lilith interactions get weighted more heavily and for that reason and others I don't think you're scum with VFT.

In post 3565, Infinity 324 wrote:Obviously I don't think my townreads are for flimsy reasons, yesterday I went through my reasons for TRing prism. I'm weighting my salsa read a decent amount here, which makes me more comfortable having a strong TR on a strong scum player.

feel like ur kind of sidestepping notsci here but w/e. okay, I'll go back through your posts yesterday again on prism!slot but like... idk, I don't think salsa was towny at all, and even if u think she was I'm confused by how you think it was to such an extent that prism just gets a pass

In post 3551, Infinity 324 wrote:I don't think prism's day 3 play makes any sense from scum

like again to stress this, but from what I've read of prism's D3 it just doesn't make a lot of sense overall not specifically doesn't make sense from scum

and someone (I wanna say maybe unwnd or Shirou) made a point to me a lil while back that I've kinda taken to heart that if someone's play just makes no sense as either alignment and you really don't get it, that makes them scummier not townier

In post 3566, Disaster Cartel wrote:and I also don't get the "scum not in control of the game" thing. like there's something to be said for that with mom flipping but I don't think we see the first two days be town flips without scum having pretty decent control of the game? or like what's your alternative explanation for how we're still a day away from even having a shot at winning if scum haven't had decent control over the game so far

Bork and me both being very loud and very wrong helped scum out a lot. Scum may have had some influence d3, but if they had control this game would me over.

Maybe I should be weighting skitt's read on you more, I didn't realize how consistent she was. For now I'm just putting my thoughts out there, no one has to listen to me but honestly trying to find a solve without you in it would drive me insane atp.

In post 3568, Infinity 324 wrote:

In post 3556, Disaster Cartel wrote:

In post 3552, Infinity 324 wrote:I said that it wasn't enough to outweigh my other evidence yesterday and it is today

fine, why

if you think it's not theatre today, why didn't you think that yesterday

idgi

I'm not sure how many ways I can say the same thing until you understand. D3 I thought you and skitt were scum together for other reasons (skitt pushing mom was a big one) which to me outweighed the unlikeliness of you/lilith being scum theater. Now that those reasons are gone, you/lilith interactions get weighted more heavily and for that reason and others I don't think you're scum with VFT.

I mean I think I understand at this point maybe the problem is more that I'm struggling to believe

I think it's very hard to read the interactions between lili/me as scum theatre, there's just like.. a lot of emotion there that I don't know if I could fake as scum and which even if I could I really don't think she could. I think you looking at that would put a lot of weight on that and so your thing of skitt being scum for pushing mom>us and that being sufficient evidence to overlook the reasons to think that we're not aligned seems false. like your position on it today makes sense. but your position on it yesterday makes a lot more sense to me if it's not something you really believed but something that, if you wanted to try to win yesterday, you had to push as an angle

In post 3571, Infinity 324 wrote:me both being very loud and very wrong

I don't think you were particularly loud since like... D1? so I kinda think you're assigning yourself an outsize weighting here

mine