Mafiascum.net

it's pretty shameful since i'm an actuary :/

i took multiple probability classes in college and remember very little of it :/

In post 3565, lilith2013 wrote:okay i attempted this again - i think the probability of exactly 2K's is .1^2 * .9^5 * (the number of combinations of arrangements for 2 K's in a 7 letter setup which is 27 = 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1), which is 12.4%

i googled math and got the same result so

I'm going to skip all the math talk since it is A) 100% useless and B) Not helpful. We lynch the vengeful claim. There's no world where that is bad for us since Lilith is a strong scumread and you can take out someone in the 'poe' without the bus driver being a threat. Like me and Bingle

In post 3578, MariaR wrote:I'm going to skip all the math talk since it is A) 100% useless and B) Not helpful. We lynch the vengeful claim. There's no world where that is bad for us since Lilith is a strong scumread and you can take out someone in the 'poe' without the bus driver being a threat. Like me and Bingle

+1

I'll look at the math in a minute, but you never don't lynch a vengeful claim.

In post 3565, lilith2013 wrote:okay i attempted this again - i think the probability of exactly 2K's is .1^2 * .9^5 * (the number of combinations of arrangements for 2 K's in a 7 letter setup which is 27 = 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1), which is 12.4%

This is correct.

In post 3578, MariaR wrote:I'm going to skip all the math talk since it is A) 100% useless and B) Not helpful. We lynch the vengeful claim. There's no world where that is bad for us since Lilith is a strong scumread and you can take out someone in the 'poe' without the bus driver being a threat. Like me and Bingle

Well said.

In post 3582, PenguinPower wrote:

lilith

Well, I mean...

VOTE: Lilith

In post 3575, lilith2013 wrote:it's pretty shameful since i'm an actuary :/

how r u an actuary and bad at probabilities.

IVE SEEN THE ACTUARY TESTS U HAVE TO TAKE. U DONT PASS THAT WITHOUT COMPETENCE IN PROBABILITIES

it's been like years since i took P!

In post 3583, PenguinPower wrote:

In post 3578, MariaR wrote:I'm going to skip all the math talk since it is A) 100% useless and B) Not helpful. We lynch the vengeful claim. There's no world where that is bad for us since Lilith is a strong scumread and you can take out someone in the 'poe' without the bus driver being a threat. Like me and Bingle

Well said.

you know literally no one is arguing against my lynch, right? not even me

Ok?

are we all done talking or was there more stuff to cover?

You just want to hammer, don't you?

If I die and lilith flips venge and doesn't shoot Maria that's my top slot that should be looked at again tomorrow, and if scum I think Blake should basically always be lynched the day after (unless it's lylo but in that case probably check it anyway)

if I die and skitter survives 2 nights she's probably either SK or scum, if she's scum I imagine A50 is too

if lilith is scum and I die probably force Blake to commit on her second top scumread and if they flip town seriously look at lynching Blake if she hasn't died to NKs by then

In post 3591, PenguinPower wrote:You just want to hammer, don't you?

...no

In post 3586, lilith2013 wrote:it's been like years since i took P!

i shake my head at u

oh c'mon there's like 4 of you who have been around who can make this L-1 stop dragging it out

skitter/datisi/Blake/firebringer/S_S I'm looking at all of you

i gain pleasure by not allowing u to hammer.

its a sick pleasure of mine.