Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:13 am
Messiah, if you "see it now," why didn't you switch your vote?
*Speculative post - Refer later if Safety flips scum - Ignore otherwise*
I've wanted to avoid setup speculation of any sort because I believe it detracts from my reads\game and I tend to get increasingly wrapped up in my own *paranoid* theories. However, I like the current theory that I have and would like to share my thoughts in case I die.
What's up with Safety Dance?
The question that's been running in my mind (and the genesis for the speculation) is "If SD was scum, why would SD even lie about his ability order i.e. track and roleblock on those night? What's the scum motivation?"
So here's what I think happened:Alignment were randomised, so whether your character is The Great Other, or Ned Stark you have the same chance of drawing any anti town role. A large part of the design process was done before alignments were even considered (So roles came first, then the alignments), so bear that in mind, too. That is not to say certain changes may not have been made afterwards.
- Faraday created the initial role versions for all the roles in the game
- He then rolled for alignment
- He then balanced the game by altering abilities so that all sides were balanced*
- Now scum do not need really need fake roles in this game. But maybe they were given the initial version of their role PMs.
Now SafetyDance was run up on D1. If you look at his posting, you can see that he's thinking of whether a claim will run him up or not "Lol, if you wont lynch a miller claim then you wont run up me.". Here's what I think:
a) SafetyDance is
Meera Reed, Scum Roleblocker
b) And he claimed his initial version of Meera Reed, Town JoAT (1-shot of Fruit Vendor, Tracker and RB)
And I think that's why he made a mistake on the claim today - cause he kept thinking 'I'm claimed JoAT and not roleblocker'. And the massive over-reaction was because he didn't want the lies of the claim unraveled.
Two scum teams
*Yeah - I also think there's a decent chance that this game is a two scum team setup.
There was SpyreX's exit post which seemed to hint at it.
And even though flavor-wise, "Chaos" is a decent name for a generic scum team opposing the realm, my first thought when I saw "Chaos" was that there's another "Evil" scum team. [Lawful-Chaotic, Good-Evil]So, good luck and may the Others take every one of you that deserve it.
YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE
Now, obviously - the number of kills contradicts this theory. But looking at Goat's setup info (6 scum) and the fact that Faraday's Clash of Kings had 26 players and a 17-4-4-1SK setup - I think a 19-3-3 makes more sense with a
no scum cross kill
clause - i.e. a kill on another scum team member fails. (or we've been *extremely* lucky with roleblocks+protection).Probables
So if Safety flips scum, obviously Messiah is scum with Safety:
- For the early D2 "Safety is town because he sent a fruit to me"
- And the more current (a) voting Garruk when a Safety-Quadz 1:1 seemed obvious (b) And if he missed it, he still didn't vote after it was explained to him?
Also, I believe my read earlier that Messiah is not scum with SpyreX (which again reinforced two scum theory). Quadz still is the best bet for SpyreX scum buddy. Quadz switch from a fair town read on Nacho D1 to a scum one on D2 + Safety's N2 claim of track\block on Nacho makes me think Nacho is the third in the Safety\Messiah team.
Both Messiah and SD mention Garruk in their first post of D2 (and) Messiah's recent push on Garruk makes me think Garruk is a possible for third in the SpyreX-Quadz team - but the fact that Garruk said "Quadz is not lying about his role but is probably scum" is not what I would see a scumbuddy telling his last partner. So not sure there.
Evil: SafetyDance-Messiah-Nacho
Chaos: SpyreX-Quadz-?
