In post 3458, MOMOMEN wrote:Someone convince me why someone in here is town please and help break teh PoE.
You were one of the first (second person, actually) to have it pegged as Wisdom/MariaR/Kokichi Oma and that was and is the best bet for a D1 solve. (Yes, I know. I said it's not likely that's actually the scumteam and I stand by that sentiment. But I ALSO stand by the sentiment that that's the
best possible GUESS
for a scumteam on D1, in that no scumteam guess will give us better odds of lynching scum than it. In short, the two aren't mutually exclusive.)
Momrangal is still town even with only two masons because my setup spec while not quite as solid still holds firmly true. Beyond the setup spec which I know to be on the right area, there is also how I don't buy Mason Cop as actually being a scum role, nor do I think Momrangal as scum claims their real role is a Mason Cop. If she were scum, she'd have a fakeclaim because no mod is going to give scum the role of Mason Cop and expect it to hold up as a viable safeclaim.
Disregarding that, because I know you won't value those metrics. Momrangal is still more likely town than not on merits of play. This is something I find harder to explain and is one of the reasons why for her I am defaulting to the above because the above I can explain easily while this one I can't explain so easily but it still is a read that is notably strong...especially when you combine it with the above. These three metrics augment one another, building off of each other to paint a vivid picture of a town player. Any individual one in of itself standing alone may or may not be enough to call her town, but pieced together in one place, they do.
Lovebird is still a townread because I maintain that their play is town especially if they are the alt of that player. Admittedly, this weakens the less and less Lovebird does, but Lovebird's contributions all seem to be genuine when Lovebird gives them.
Lady Lambdadelta is mostly a combination of a gut read, situational read, slight burden of proficiency read, and all-around general feeling of how she is playing. If Lady Lambdadelta is scum this game, this is a weak performance from her. She's avoiding attention, yes, which is one of scum's high priorities, but on all other metrics she's coming up short--she's not influential in this gamestate even remotely. She's not at risk of being lynched but is in prime position to be targeted by PRs that can fuck her over if she's scum. She is not earning herself any long-term town credit with her play today. Quite the opposite, her play right now is only short-term town.
In other words, there's no visible endgame. There's no visible agenda. If she were scum, then frankly it feels like she's setting herself up for failure and I don't see that as the case. This isn't exactly a lock-solid strong read, if for no other reason than because my ability to read LLD is provably shit, but therein enters the situational buffs to the read combined with gut. Especially around the earlygame, there were just a lot of interactions which very strongly indicated that LLD was not likely scum...and critically?
LLD was shown to be very doubtfully scum with many of the players who are also in the scumpool. (In particular, an incredibly unlikely team was LLD-Wisdom, among others.) Now said players in the scumpool could of course be partially, mostly, or even all town (unlikely as that is), but the point still works as a loose indicator as town. When you put it all together, I'm somewhat comfortable calling her town for quite a while.
And, yes, LLD. I know you hate that I put you in the "loosely town but reevaluate in mid-to-lategame" pile every game. Which is precisely what I am describing you as being. But this game, you are playing in a way that is absolutely an appropriate metric to use: I am anticipating that in said mid-to-lategame, there will be enough to either sort you as hard-town or sort you as scum, but as you are playing in this very moment no such strong evidence exists.
Can you honestly disagree with that and say that there is strong evidence this is your towngame? Because you constantly are saying that your scumrange is quite wide and you have also I believe self-confessed that your play this game is notably weak and when you combine the two, that leads to the conclusion that there isn't a way to have the hard townread. Still, apologies all the same for once more putting you there. If you're not happy with it, then change this game from being a weak game to a strong game or something like that.
BUT I DIGRESS.
For Pine, you have a combination of Alisae's contributions being ridiculously town, Alisae's contributions being on point, Alisae's attitude being something which is MORE LIKELY to come from em as town (Alisae may be toxic as scum, too, but the TYPE and STRENGTH behind the toxicity is different in that Alisae's scum toxicity is, comparatively speaking, tame), Pine being firmly out of his scum meta which is something that contrary to popular opinion I actually DO know a lot about, Pine's contributions being ridiculously town, him raising multiple good points separately from Alisae, him referring to Alisae but not using Alisae as a crutch, and on top of that having a role synergy with Cheeky (now MathDino) which while not guaranteed to be town is still disproportionately likely to be town.
Do any of these make him definitively locktown? No, not really. I wouldn't call him 100% town. I would call him a solid 85-90% town though, which is basically townbloc level of town--maybe just a little short of it due to a few concerns here and there, but CERTAINLY not a D1 lynch, and PROBABLY not a D2 lynch. Or a lynch any day for that matter but he at the very least gets a two-day pass.
Like I said.
If we attempt to get greedy and lock down the actual scumteam on D1, I doubt we'll be successful and we'll probably lynch town with no better idea of who to lynch. I do think that my process for my townreads is wrong somewhere because as much evidence as there is for Wisdomslot(OnTheMark)/MariaR/Kokichi Oma to be scum and even for them to be scum with one another, that they aren't
actually
the scumteam and thus one townread must be wrong at minimum.
BUT.
I have a process by which I operate.
"Expect to be wrong. But assume you are right." Because you can't make progress by assuming you're wrong.
By which.
I mean.
We won't hit scum if we assume (even correctly) that it's not those three.
Because those three are the best possible D1 guess for a scumteam.
God I need to find a better way to word this.
Tl;dr version I guess:
Everyone except Wisdomslot(OnTheMark), MariaR, and Kokichi Oma has very good reasons to be town.
Wisdomslot(OnTheMark), MariaR, and Kokichi Oma have very good reasons to be scum.
Wisdomslot(OnTheMark), MariaR, and Kokichi Oma have interactions which very strongly support them as the scumteam.
In spite of this, there is evidence which would throw that team into doubt...
...But in spite of the evidence throwing it into doubt. If we throw the team out the window, we are going to lynch town; if we lynch assuming that team, we might lynch scum and even if we don't we're going to have a much better idea who scum are.
)
