Mafiascum.net

I won't lie I actually don't know if Bake just hammered me or not.

VOTE: Creature

~Morning

In post 3713, Double the Trouble wrote:also norwee is in my ear saying
"KILL HIM, KILL HIM"
and its like :/

Not true. :/

- Norwee

In post 3718, Bell wrote: I was aware, my heart just gave out. Do you honestly think I wouldn't be aware of that.
have I ever or will I ever fake respond to a hammer that wasn't clearly a hammer?
Probably not unless I actually fall for one.

He's showing weakness. KILL HIM!!

- Norwee

In post 3724, Dunnstral wrote:Reminder that the night kill thought Polar Bear was really town

Uh, sorry what was this reminder about? Oh yeah. What point are you trying to make, I'm in my own head.

Pedit: CRUELTY TO THE ULTIMATE DEGREE. HOW COULD YOU DO DIS.

Please don't vig Noraa.

You will slap yourselves forever whenever that other game ends and I could've posted about it.

In post 3372, Solstice wrote:ircher/someone else who's townreading DEB, can you talk to me about what you like about their D2 posting?

~mist

In post 3180, pichu wrote:

In post 2975, Blade Dancer wrote:Bell (5): Ircher, Double the Trouble, pichu, Solstice, Ydrasse

look how good this wagon is
it has everyone's favourite townreads on there

Yeah, I agree. The wagon looks pretty good.

In post 3214, Solstice wrote:[Sure you aren't letting the confirm bias set in just a little?]

Tbf to pichu, I don't think any of Bell's recent posts give incentive to reconsider. Why should pichu reconsider when Bell decides he is going to ignore pichu's case entirely? Especially when the reason for ignoring is for some game that is not in the recent past?

Nothing about Bell's posts since pichu's case have struck me as town.

In post 3217, Bell wrote:I just need to convince others that you're wrong, but I'm not gunna do that by arguing with you about how wrong you are.

You're also not going to do that by engaging in antitown behavior.

In post 3223, MURDERCAT wrote:I have no reason to scum read him at the moment other than being generally inactive but he's in the poe, similar to DEB

This was in my reads list, but I want to reiterate: Creature has /not/ been inactive this game. Not even close; maybe he seems comparatively inactive when we have several people with >200 post counts, but he has definitely had a significance presence in-thread, much unlike DEB. No, Creature has been /disengaged/ this game, which is a completely different aspect. This suggests that MURDERCAT isn't really paying attention to the thread outside the few slots he has to give reads on (e.g.: the poe-4 yesterday) and the Noraa slot.

In post 3225, MURDERCAT wrote:It's due to interactions with other players I am town reading

A bit late, I know. But do you have any specific examples of interactions that you town read from Spiffeh.

In post 3250, Bell wrote:K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

OK.

In post 3254, Dunnstral wrote:

In post 3252, Double the Trouble wrote:imagine targetting the player that claims VT as a detective
holy shit

Detective only checks if they've killed or not, vt claim doesn't factor in

(Yeah, the target having claimed VT isn't really a problem since scum can multitask regardless.) I do think Dunnstral's timing here is a bit weird.

In post 3262, Double the Trouble wrote:That or you send someone like Spiffeh who would reasonably not be targetted by tracks or anything that investigates actions like a detective due to the fact that they had a really good d1 if they're scum.

On the contrary, Spiffeh would be one of the perfect investigative targets this game because of Spiffeh's potential to be really good at scum.

In post 3274, Dunnstral wrote:The claim itself is believable, despite your reservations. i think the target is fine, you talking about what scum would do is your opinion.

It's believable, but marginally so especially since there don't appear to be any crumbs. I would still probably support eliminating them despite the claim, though maybe a bit less strongly.

In post 3276, Bell wrote:I did ask just to let me solve and to wait up. until day end. Has anyone actually examined peope's actions around the flipped players yet.

What are you expecting there? Netflix and Chill was an obvious kill; I think everyone agrees there. Not Known 15 is a pretty apparent vigshot after that hammer. Battle Mage flipping town I guess would generate the most reactions, but quite frankly, people don't react too much to flips. The reactions to Battle Mage's flip have been the pretty standard "Oh I was wrong I should reevaluate" reactions. Well, except for Creature; Creature had that "Battle Mage was obvtown/I could've stopped the mislim if I had more time" response, so maybe there is something somewhat useful there.

In post 3289, Creature wrote:It's optimal to trust Bell's claim for now. We should have at least three other scum around.

Eh, I guess. Absent any counterclaims anyway. (But my impression is that there was a counterclaim later in the day from loosely following along, so... I don't think this post applies anymore.)

In post 3292, Creature wrote:I know you are voting town rn. You already voted for BM who flipped town, DT and Solstice who I both townread and Ircher who may be the only scum you ever voted all game.

Wait, when did Spiffeh vote me? I thought he was town reading me practically the entire game.

In post 3300, Creature wrote:Also Spiffeh and mastina really looking like scum.

What looks like scum from mastina?

In post 3304, Creature wrote:I could have forgiven you and mastina for the terrible BM mislynch but it's looking like none of you are really trying to find scum but just follow the same agenda established D1.

You keep saying this, but you haven't really given any indication as to what you mean by this.

In post 3311, Creature wrote:I have the info that I am town and hence the info that you and mastina are pushing an agenda. I'm seeing zero reevaluation from both of you and hence looks like scum conformity to a terrible gamestate for town.

Lolwat? This feels so much like something scum would say. Town would entertain to a greater extent the possibility that Spiffeh/mastina have wrong reads. mastina also did for the record reevaluate. Maybe not all her reads, but she realized she was short a few scum, so she had to reevaluate her town reads at least.

In post 3319, MURDERCAT wrote:Why would creature scum ever defend Bell here?

Can we stop asking questions like this? All this leads to is speculation; there are plenty reasons why scum would do this and plenty of reasons why town would do this.

In post 3320, MURDERCAT wrote:I agree we should probably let Bell live a day FWIW

Counterclaims aside, I think one issue with Bell's claim is that Bell could be left alive for several days, and Bell could validly claim they are still alive because scum think Bell is still able to be limmed despite the claim. Furthermore, the role isn't super useful for town.

In post 3332, MURDERCAT wrote:This wagon comp is bad, I don't like it. Unvote.

You think it's bad? Which votes (besides Toogeloo's) do you not like?

In post 3333, Spiffeh wrote:I am serious it is almost worthy flashwagoning Toogeloo for that post alone

I'm not particularly convinced. Can you explain a bit more what makes that post exceptionally bad (as opposed to just bad which wouldn't warrant a flash wagon by itself.)

In post 3341, MURDERCAT wrote:It's an excuse to change targets tomorrow because she knows Bell is flipping town

Okay, now this suggests you are townreading Bell. I do not particularly remember your thoughts on Bell prior to this post, but I would like to know what you are seeing in Bell that makes you think they are likely to flip town here.

In post 3372, Solstice wrote:ircher/someone else who's townreading DEB, can you talk to me about what you like about their D2 posting?

~mist

So day 1, DEB just decided to fluff/otherwise not engage with the game. That's normal for them. Come day 2, DEB is actually showing signs of doing stuff, and that looks good comparatively. I think scum!DEB would be okay with continuing his D1 behavior for the most part. Take 2970 for instance. I think that post has a higher level of coming from town because I think DEB had to actually read the game (at least from the day 2 start) to make that post. Anyway, I'm making this sound more confident than I actually am; as evidenced by my reads list, DEB is very much still a null read for me. It's just this one little thing that very slightly tips the scale in favor of town.

At bottom of page 135.

[ohhh the humanity !]

[Unless someone helps me understand the claim probability stuff, i'd rather kill off Creature and see what happens next. I wouldnt do this if i wasn't also persuaded by Bell's AtE, i wont lie. I just think Creature will probably flip scum, and it doesn't have to be related to all this.. strangeness. I suppose I don't buy that this is happening because of an unlikely random chance. But if I'm misinterpreting and it's not as unlikely as i make it out to be, do tell me please]

[pedit: I still feel like the wagon on Bell is town driven and Bell isn't a bad elimination at all. I guess it's possible he has an emotional scumrange + happened to claim the exact PR that draws a CC. Maybe they knew there was a detective so it was intentional to draw them out.....? I can't consider every world so I suppose it's easy I'm missing something. i am just a little taken aback because this isn't the Bell!scum i'm quite as familiar with abrasiveness wise. And TvT requires no special unlikely event happening in my opinion.]

~Morning

In post 3720, Solstice wrote:

In post 3708, pichu wrote:

In post 3703, Double the Trouble wrote:this is weird because im starting to like bell :/

oh no
what are you doing
you believe there's two detectives in the game?

[That's easily more likely than scum accidentally claiming the one obscure PR town has left, don't you think? Do you disagree that FL could have caused town to have identical PRs?]

[Am i insane for finding it weird that this scenario is occuring? Is Detective a more common PR than i make it out to be?]

~Morning

no no no
one scenario is there is one duplicated town role in this game which is unusual on it's own
Bell happens to exactly have that town role
OR Bell fakeclaimed a role which overlaps with the many town roles in this game
it's so much more likely he just got CCed rather than happens to have an unlikely duplicate

what am i missing here?

alright
VOTE: bell

mmm, I think I'm hammered now?

nope

Maybe you should have tried reading my posts. It's just a thought.

In post 3734, pichu wrote:

In post 3720, Solstice wrote:

In post 3708, pichu wrote:

In post 3703, Double the Trouble wrote:this is weird because im starting to like bell :/

oh no
what are you doing
you believe there's two detectives in the game?

[That's easily more likely than scum accidentally claiming the one obscure PR town has left, don't you think? Do you disagree that FL could have caused town to have identical PRs?]

[Am i insane for finding it weird that this scenario is occuring? Is Detective a more common PR than i make it out to be?]

~Morning

no no no
one scenario is there is one duplicated town role in this game which is unusual on it's own
Bell happens to exactly have that town role
OR Bell fakeclaimed a role which overlaps with the many town roles in this game
it's so much more likely he just got CCed rather than happens to have an unlikely duplicate

what am i missing here?

[FL can influence the setup to make that happen, and if two people have the same role then by definition it's more likely that this scenario would occur. Also if there's a duplicated role, it makes sense that it's not a vig or a doctor but a weakish investigative]

[If Bell is scum fakeclaiming, he claimed like the ONE wrong role he possibly could have, virtually the only one that would get CCed. Or at least close to one. And it's an obscure role like Detective, not a Cop/Tracker/Watcher etc]

[I guess TvT still has to have FL making that rule happen, which is my own speculation and not guaranteed.]

[I still don't understand how no one finds it odd that Bell claimed like the only role that could have been counter-claimed + it's obscure. How did that happen?]

~Morning

want do you mean it's the only role that could have been counter claimed?
flavor leaf can influence the setup but we don't know how he did
i don't understand what you're saying

In post 3739, Solstice wrote:not a vig or a doctor

I once saw two docs in a mini normal.
I see Bell is hammered. Hectic, he's twilight trolling right?

-nornor

is he actually hammered?

go go go!!!!

Pichu, do you really think I'm going to town spew solve for 7 days and 7 nights as scum.
The second I claimed my posting style changed because I was released from caring.

I am really sad nobody actually tried to engage in NK15 analysis trying out awareness analysis or least would let me in to how they normally read games and what they were thinking at any particular time.

It would have fun.

Oh hi Ydrasse.

In post 3743, Ydrasse wrote:

go go go!!!!

i'm not in this

hi bell how are u

In post 3740, pichu wrote:want do you mean it's the only role that could have been counter claimed?
flavor leaf can influence the setup but we don't know how he did
i don't understand what you're saying

[Masons, doctor, vig, informed are already on the table. There are only so many power roles that can remain]

[Bell managed to claim one of the only roles in that small pool of unclaimed roles that are still left. But not only did he do that, it's a role like Detective -- not something like a Cop. That is what I find strangely unlikely]

[If there are two detectives in that final pool, then it suddenly would make sense.]

~Morning

In post 3746, pichu wrote:

In post 3743, Ydrasse wrote:

go go go!!!!

i'm not in this

sorry it was me and the other girls at the sleepover