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Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:21 pm
by April Ludgate
VP Baltar (7): Scorpious, tenebrousluminary, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, fireisredsir, MathBlade, Deasvail
Honestly, Fire and DeasVail stand out hard for me here. I don't think they're S/S, I said that earlier, but this might be enough for me to believe one of them are scum here.
For what it's worth, I think STD had some townie energy when they voted at me, just feels like mislead town not really being here, plus I semi trust the ones who said STD was town, but also noted Frog not seeing it either, so they still not in blue.
1 of DV/Fire, then 1 of Scorpious/Frog/Tene/Nero probably. And I town read 3 of that 4 pool.
My way too early prediction theory right now is:
Malcolm, Fire, Scorpius, Skitter slot
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:23 pm
by Cape90
What makes it boring? How do you propose we spice it up?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:24 pm
by DeasVail
In post 3691, DeasVail wrote:Thoughts on VP:
I think it's already been mentioned, but imo VP's posting is fine up until
684 and the follow-up in
685. It has a really strained feel and seems to be pushing an agenda of discrediting Nero in a public space.
This seems to be part of a trend of criticism of Nero that to me honestly appears exaggerated in an attempt to appear to have genuine town thought processes, but largely comes across as forced.
2657 "you could just be terrible town here" is a good example I think.
The other main thing for me is the Day 2 vote progression. I don't like the vote on tenebros in
3392 nor the rationalisation in
3479. I think it's fairly obvious that a big part of VP voting tenebro (as town or scum) would be because it was a more popular wagon than VP's other scumreads, yet VP seems to avoid admitting that, and the change of vote in
3502 seems to be pretending that the fact that the tenebro wagon fell apart is not why VP's changing his vote.
I don't strongly think that VP is scum, but there is no one who I strongly think is scum. Most importantly, I don't have strong reason to think that VP is town, that would make me question the slight qualms I have with his play. VP is also someone that, if scum, I wouldn't necessarily expect to have stronger qualms with than what I do now.
I think the pushing on Nero is scummy because it is more focused on pushing Nero as terrible town than it is on determining his alignment. It also is exaggerated to the point where it feels to me more like scum attempting to emulate townie frustration than true Town thought process.
I think the Day 2 voting is scummy because the votes are presented in a disingenuous way. The tenebro vote comes at a time when tenebro clearly looks bad and is VP’s main alternative wagon, but VP’s vote is justified in such a way that seems an attempt to have the vote not appear survivalistic. The move off tenebro and subsequent lack of attention there appears more influenced by the collapse of the wagon than a change in read, however VP presents this as deciding that he wants to push a scumread that he feels strongly about.
I don’t think it is a slam dunk scumread, but I think there is play that is scum-indicative and I have put a great deal of thought into my vote. I am aware that it is a significant decision.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:24 pm
by Enchant
I never understand sense of measuring reads, and then predicting team half scumreads half nulls while there's other scumreads.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:26 pm
by DeasVail
In post 3725, April Ludgate wrote:VP Baltar (7): Scorpious, tenebrousluminary, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, fireisredsir, MathBlade, Deasvail
Honestly, Fire and DeasVail stand out hard for me here. I don't think they're S/S, I said that earlier, but this might be enough for me to believe one of them are scum here.
For what it's worth, I think STD had some townie energy when they voted at me, just feels like mislead town not really being here, plus I semi trust the ones who said STD was town, but also noted Frog not seeing it either, so they still not in blue.
1 of DV/Fire, then 1 of Scorpious/Frog/Tene/Nero probably. And I town read 3 of that 4 pool.
My way too early prediction theory right now is:
Malcolm, Fire, Scorpius, Skitter slot
So you’re placing your trust in me/Fire in regards to STD whilst also hypothesising that one of must be scum? (As much as I am keeping Fire-scum in mind as a possibility I think it’s a logical fallacy that one of us must be scum due to our very similar movements)
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm
by DeasVail
I like this question a lot
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm
by Yeet
Emotionally I agree with a lot of Flavor’s reads but I would be really surprised if skitter was scum.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:34 pm
by Eyes without a face
In post 3727, DeasVail wrote:I think the pushing on Nero is scummy because it is more focused on pushing Nero as terrible town than it is on determining his alignment.
I personally share that same view with VP. I have called Nero town from the start (based on me knowing something about his meta) and yet I have been opposing him almost all the way. In fact if I didn't read VP I still would have been skeptical to join forcers with Nero because traditionally he hardly gets anything right when he's town. That means that if Nero is town you have much better odds going against his wishes, and if he's scum it's evident why you don't want to go where he goes either.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:36 pm
by April Ludgate
In post 3728, Enchant wrote:I never understand sense of measuring reads, and then predicting team half scumreads half nulls while there's other scumreads.
Maybe one day you'll get there. Huge upside once you can wrap your brain around reasons to do so.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:37 pm
by DeasVail
I think disagreeing with someone is perfectly valid and healthy for the game, but I think VP’s commentary on Nero goes beyond this, whilst truly thinking about Nero’s alignment takes a backseat
Above is @eyes
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:37 pm
by April Ludgate
In post 3729, DeasVail wrote: In post 3725, April Ludgate wrote:VP Baltar (7): Scorpious, tenebrousluminary, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, fireisredsir, MathBlade, Deasvail
Honestly, Fire and DeasVail stand out hard for me here. I don't think they're S/S, I said that earlier, but this might be enough for me to believe one of them are scum here.
For what it's worth, I think STD had some townie energy when they voted at me, just feels like mislead town not really being here, plus I semi trust the ones who said STD was town, but also noted Frog not seeing it either, so they still not in blue.
1 of DV/Fire, then 1 of Scorpious/Frog/Tene/Nero probably. And I town read 3 of that 4 pool.
My way too early prediction theory right now is:
Malcolm, Fire, Scorpius, Skitter slot
So you’re placing your trust in me/Fire in regards to STD whilst also hypothesising that one of must be scum? (As much as I am keeping Fire-scum in mind as a possibility I think it’s a logical fallacy that one of us must be scum due to our very similar movements)
It doesn't have to be 100%.
I'm very flexible with reads, and can even 180, but i think it's important to note where my mind is currently racing at.
a 40% scum read is a strong scum read, people act like there needs to be like 80%+ for some reason, when on Day 2, it's likely there isn't actual scum cases for actual scum quite yet.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:38 pm
by April Ludgate
In post 3731, Yeet wrote:Emotionally I agree with a lot of Flavor’s reads but I would be really surprised if skitter was scum.
Yeah, honestly, that's my linger slot, don't take too much face value from that fourth one. It's where I'm at, it would be wild if I were 100% correct, ya feel.
100% corrects dont come in until later in the game with more flips.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:39 pm
by fireisredsir
@april, if you think tene and VP are both town, why do you think things shifting from tene to VP is a sign of scum taking action?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:41 pm
by Eyes without a face
I am starting to like this April person. They're not afraid to speak their mind and go against the tide. (Of I wanted to be really mean I'd have said this was one more slot Nero wanted to push. but I want to be fair and say that at the time April wasn't posting I personally could not have got any read on them, so fair is fair).
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:42 pm
by April Ludgate
In post 3728, Enchant wrote:I never understand sense of measuring reads, and then predicting team half scumreads half nulls while there's other scumreads.
For instance, you could say Maybe instead of flat out going No to possible theories. It's alright to talk about all possibilities.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:45 pm
by Eyes without a face
In post 3734, DeasVail wrote:I think disagreeing with someone is perfectly valid and healthy for the game, but I think VP’s commentary on Nero goes beyond this, whilst truly thinking about Nero’s alignment takes a backseat
Above is @eyes
OK.. maybe I didn't see it that way because I was agreeing with VP on the subject already, so I will accept that it looks that way from your own perspective.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:45 pm
by April Ludgate
In post 3737, fireisredsir wrote:@april, if you think tene and VP are both town, why do you think things shifting from tene to VP is a sign of scum taking action?
Tene was staggering with momentum.
I fought hard to protect Tene earlier, and that's how I called out Malcolm. It took a little bit of time, the game stagnated, but VP started gaining more traction.
I do believe VPB momentum came initially from stagnant game and been under fire the longest at the time, but momentum came heavier, so the back end is likely to have at least 1 scum for it to break the monotony.
Fire/DV also didn't really have any major heat on them, and fit an under the radar scum, giving them the perfect catalyst to be the momentum vote to start VPB.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:46 pm
by Eyes without a face
In post 3737, fireisredsir wrote:@april, if you think tene and VP are both town, why do you think things shifting from tene to VP is a sign of scum taking action?
I have an answer to this but I will let April answer for themselves. Ask me about mine when and if you are interested.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:48 pm
by fireisredsir
idk, i think tene lim would've gone through if me/DV didn't switch. it was at 6 and there were a couple more people willing to vote there.
eyes what's your answer?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:49 pm
by April Ludgate
Alright, I gotta go write something for a fiverr client, ill be back in a little bit.
I beg to give Malcolm wagon a try, we have plenty of time left in the day phase, and that would cause a drastic shift in the game and force scum to take some type of action.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:50 pm
by VP Baltar
In post 3734, DeasVail wrote:I think disagreeing with someone is perfectly valid and healthy for the game, but I think VP’s commentary on Nero goes beyond this, whilst truly thinking about Nero’s alignment takes a backseat
Above is @eyes
Do you think Nero or I is the lead instigator here? This is a wild ass take on those interactions. I've been extremely reasonable with Nero.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:51 pm
by Eyes without a face
It's evident that VP is a much stronger player and scum would want him dead over tene is my answer
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:51 pm
by April Ludgate
In post 3743, fireisredsir wrote:idk, i think tene lim would've gone through if me/DV didn't switch. it was at 6 and there were a couple more people willing to vote there.
eyes what's your answer?
Interesting, the 2 of you were at another key point together. I'll have to go back and look, but if a townie goes off, that's often a time for scum to hop off too.
Also, scum hop off to look townie often because they're afraid of being on a wagon that's gonna make them look bad.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:52 pm
by Eyes without a face
VOTE: Malcolm
Willing to give this a try but I reserve the right to retract my vote if I am not satisfied with the result.
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:53 pm
by DeasVail
In post 3745, VP Baltar wrote: In post 3734, DeasVail wrote:I think disagreeing with someone is perfectly valid and healthy for the game, but I think VP’s commentary on Nero goes beyond this, whilst truly thinking about Nero’s alignment takes a backseat
Above is @eyes
Do you think Nero or I is the lead instigator here? This is a wild ass take on those interactions. I've been extremely reasonable with Nero.
I don’t think you were being unreasonable.