Mafiascum.net

↑ Parama wrote:AurorusVox 2012-03-19 17:13:17 3 days 20 hours 20
UberNinja 2012-03-19 01:14:39 4 days 12 hours 7
RedCoyote 2012-03-18 12:21:05 5 days 1 hour 5

I think he's just that bad. I really don't see any way for him to be scum at this point, since CNH is practically confirmed.

What.

How does RC/CNH's little back and forths say 'well this can't possibly be distancing?' Is it the way CNH sticks to his guns, or the way RC really effectively pushes CNH's wagon with posts like this?

↑ RedCoyote wrote:Oh, a black wagon. Surprise, surprise.

Oh, quadz flipped town. Another shocker.

Look, I'm not critical of mistakes. This game is built on a series of mistakes. That series of mistakes helps us in the endgame. What I am critical of the idea that it would've been seriously possible to construct a wagon with no scum if everyone just willed it enough. Guys, if it were that easy, the town would do it every game. So let's stop praising Spy as some untouchable because he proposed the ridiculous idea that we should strive for a red wagon. It was never going to work. Ever. The scum couldn't allow it to work. If you guys would sit down and let that sink in you probably wouldn't be so quick to give Spy undue credit. I'm not saying he's scum necessarily. I'm going to have to step back as best I can and analyze that more. I mean, I'm biased. I'm having to play devil's advocate and get people to think of Spy as a potential scum, so that's coloring my perception of him right now. Right now I'm inclined to think that he is, but take that read with the appropriate grain of salt (or two).

The person that needs to be objectively lynched is our hydra though. LLD would be a good choice as well, and I also have no problem with seeing AV eat a lynch. We're going to have to pick up more rationale as we go along, unfortunately. The scum are going to have a field day with this game because all they need to say is, "lol, where's your case???" and there's really no retort to that. It's gone. It's gone for good. But, thankfully, CNH still drops these little gems for us to work with like a good scum does.

↑ Creatively-Named Hydra wrote:VOTE: RC

The scum on the wagon was AV (or MAYBE Katsuki (or MAYBE Parama)).

Parama said it already, but it's a pretty clear there is scum motivation here. After all CNH's talk about red/black wagons yesterday, he lets that all fall to the wayside for D2 and goes for me instead. Further, he doesn't make mention of why he's choosing to abandon his colored-wagon strategy. He not only piggybacks on Parama's initial vote, but he paradoxically throws suspicion on him in this post as if to cover his ass from an accusation of being too close to Parama. He mentioned three people seemingly at random (I could be mistaken, but I do not recall CNH having suspicion for these players prior to the crash). It's just a mess of a post. It goes in different directions to try and provide defenses for future attacks that would be made. If you criticize him for following Parama, he'll say he suspects Parama. If you criticize him for voting off yesterday's wagon, he'll say he addressed the topic. If you criticize him for random choices of scumbuddies on the wagon, he'll say his vote is what matters.

What a mess; what a scum!

Vote: Creatively-Named Hydra

↑ SpyreX wrote:Huzzah for clarification:

I KNOW my shot killed someone. Not hit a BP target. Killed them.

A -death- and me having the right alignment is the only way I recharge my shot.

Yeah, I misunderstood your role again. So you absolutely know 100% that last night's kill was yours, but you targeted RC?

Redirector makes sense.

Still at work with no time to think and I'll be on the road tonight.

Okay, here it is.

I refuse to believe that the scumteam is some flavor of easy. It's not going to be a cookie cutter fit that you all think it is.

I refuse to believe that the combined efforts of this town can't lynch a scumbag, without having someone very competent on the team.

So here we go, looking for 2 scum who have been considered town gods all game.

Nuwen: Completely and totally town, and if she's not then this game is a lost cause regardless. RC is town and always has been, her reads this game have been pretty consistently decent.

Parama: This is one of the two scum. Entering the game with half of your posts being jokes about how scummy you are, and the other half being support of lynches on easily mislynched townies that this voting block of a game has led, leads me to believe Parama is letting this town implode on itself. Or rather, he's letting the better half of the 2 "townie" scum members do the job for him.

SpyreX: Needs to die on a principle of role shenanigans. His role has been too questionable too long, and we've seen no results. Plus, SpyreX absolutely would come up with the plan to control the day 1 wagon using a combination of humor and planning. He's seen it done before, and he knows how deadly getting a town swamped in mechanical bullshit can be. Infact, Parama/SpyreX isn't a bad combination.

Infact, a team like SpyreX/Parama/Kanye would almost certainly lead to this conclusion.

Reckoner: Cannot see him as scum here. If he's scum, good on him, he did an excellent job, but I'm going to stick to my gut read on Reck for the moment and say that he's town.

GI: Needs to die at some point likely. I'm not a fan of this "Vote:LLD btw I'm replacing out" stuff. I have read him as town this game, and so I think he probably is. But he needs to get his shit together, because the string of events that is:

1) VOTE SPYREX
2) Replace out!
3) Vote: LLD
4) Replace out!
5) Oh you're so right Parama!!!!1111 Vote:CNH

Is bad and needs death soon.

Parama/GI pairing exists in some capacity, but if that's the case, it needs another slightly more influential name to tag along with it. I don't see GI/Parama/Kanye. Maybe GI/SpyreX/Parama?

Okay, so beyond that:

CNH is one of two things. Either:

1) He's town and the scum have been saving him for an easy mislynch.
2) He's scum and the scum have been soft bussing him but redirecting the lynch at the last second to save him each day.

The second doesn't seem likely, especially with Reckoner being town in my eyes, and basically voting him every day. If Reckoner was scum, CNH would be his partner. 100%. As a result, I'm reading CNH as town for the moment.

Nuwen and RC are just town. Always have thought this. Not changing that read.

So basically, the disappearing act that is Kayne is probably scum. Just based off of PoE, and the fact that the lynches that have occured have swung towards town targets and away from him.

So yeah: Here's my thoughts.

Parama is almost ASSUREDLY scum. If Parama ISN'T scum, then I'm looking at re-reading the game and flipping some reads, most likely resulting in a re-read of Reckoner for me.

SpyreX is up there in the scum ranks. I really truly believe that this kind of gambit is something SpyreX would pull off well.

GI could be scum, simply based off interactions with the above two.

Kayne can be scum with those two aswell.

Hmm.

Killing Parama.

I am all for this.

He irritates me.

LLD is town.

@Grey:

↑ Parama wrote:CNH either has a hard-on for irrational bussing or he's not scum with RC

@LLD:
I'm flattered. I really like your GI/Spy/Me theory, it makes totally perfect sense that GI and Spyspy are scum together.

Believe it or not I actually like that post from LLD enough that I can tenatively cross her off the people to kill list in my head for a bit. I mean, its wrong but I'll give of the people who I'm not lynching given any other option Parama gives me the most nanosecond pause.

Kayne by nature of the beast could sure be scum though

Something just sprung to mind:

CNH being scum will pretty much clear GI in my head based on the D1 wagon.

Also

A team of CNH/RC/Parama would make a lot of sense

Given how hard Parama is pushing that CNH can't POSSIBLY be scum with RC.

Just saying. I'll flip RC long before I flip Parama. But if both flip red then Pip Boy must die.

LLD's post really does nothing to ameliorate my very first read on her in this game, which was that she was casually defending CNH by shoving a Quadz lynch forward. RIP Tierce for recovering that invaluable mountain of goodies.

Which reminds me, remember when I said who-voted-whom onto the D1 artificialwagon would be important eventually? It's that time.



Take it easy, take it slow, and assume CNH is scum. FFS @ all these people trying to dismiss my lust for CNH by calling me town. If I'm so bloody town, start sheeping me for a free excuse to bus your buddy. Pretty sure everything I need to peg the rest of the scum team is up there^.

Don't expect much from me this weekend, and don't do anything retardmode without me.

ive said parama was scum since d1. i still think this is the case.

↑ Lady Lambdadelta wrote:So basically, the disappearing act that is Kayne is probably scum. Just based off of PoE, and the fact that the lynches that have occured have swung towards town targets and away from him.

????

uh... guys

thinking about what would be the case if we were scum is useless

because we're not... so

please stop doing it.

lol

Oh shit, I forgot to go back and do the post-D2 matrices with correlations between people. Scum HAD to put their scumbuddies on the wagon D1 with their votes, so we need to take a closer look at that.

oh yeah also spyrex can absolutely die too. im fine with either spy or parama lynch.

I'm not making any big claims as to who's scum yet. I'm getting bad vibes from GreyICE's push on SpyreX today. The ReReckoning is happening today, so I need to go shower and get cleaned up. If I have time before people start arriving, I'll try to work out the chart in my head.

Actually fuck it, I don't need to look nice and pretty for iPie. Doing the chart now.

kanye - Reck, SpyreX,
CNH - SpyreX, ,
- RC, , SpyreX
- Reck, SpyreX, Parama
- LLD, SpyreX, Reck
Lady Lambdadelta - Reck, Nuwen, SpyreX
- Reck, Nuwen, SpyreX
RedCoyote - Nuwen, Reck,
GreyICE - LLD, , SpyreX
Nuwen - Reck, SpyreX, RC
Parama - Reck, SpyreX, GreyICE
xRECKONERx - SpyreX, Parama, GreyICE
SpyreX - Nuwen, Parama, GreyICE

The basic assumption here is that scum could not afford a red wagon D1 or they'd be cornered, so they had to put each other up for nomination. We know that scum exists in at least one of the following players: SpyreX, GreyICE, xRECKONERx, Creatively-Named Hydra, Parama. Allow me to make some tiny logical jumps and present the following:

If kanye is scum, it has to be with me or SpyreX as a buddy. I know I'm town, so that means kanyescum -> SpyreXscum.

If CNH is scum, it has to be with SpyreX. So that means CNHscum -> SpyreXscum.

If LLD is scum, it has to be with me, Nuwen, or SpyreX. I know I'm town, so that means LLDscum -> Nuwen/SpyreXscum.

If RedCoyote is scum, it has to be with me or Nuwen. I know I'm town, so that means RCscum -> Nuwenscum.

If GreyICE is scum, it has to be with LLD or SpyreX. So that means GreyICEscum -> LLD/SpyreXscum.

If Nuwen is scum, it has to be with me, SpyreX, or RC. I know I'm town, so that means Nuwenscum -> RC/SpyreXscum.

If Parama is scum, it has to be with me, SpyreX, or GreyICE. I know I'm town, so that means Paramascum -> SpyreX/GreyICEscum.

If I'm scum... well, I'm not, so fuck doing this step (it also fucks up the findings since I've been using meTown as a constant in the above pairings).

If SpyreX is scum, it has to be with Nuwen, Parama, or GreyICE. So that means SpyreXscum -> Nuwen/Parama/GreyICEscum.

Posting this so I can make the next pairings in a new post.

er... Reck.

If Spyrex is scum, your post is not very useful at all.

Problem is cnr-scum jumped on a grenade and parkvoted so his connctions are moot

Problem is that I don't believe you think we're scum.

the problem with the logical leaps your making here reck is that it assumes that scum MUST have voted for fellow scum. this is not the case at all. suppose spyrex is scum and everyone who voted him onto the wagon was town. if thats the case then scum had absolutely zero need to cross vote.

Parama, GreyICE, RC

Nuwen, RC, LLD

GreyICE, LLD, Nuwen

GreyICE, LLD, SpyreX

RC, Nuwen, LLD

LLD, SpyreX, kanye

LLD, SpyreX, CNH

CNH, SpyreX, kanye

CNH, SpyreX, LLD

CNH, SpyreX, GreyICE

CNH, SpyreX, Nuwen

kanye, SpyreX, CNH

kanye, SpyreX, LLD

kanye, SpyreX, GreyICE

kanye, SpyreX, Nuwen

SpyreX, Nuwen, RC

SpyreX, Nuwen, LLD

SpyreX, GreyICE, Parama

Totaling it up, here's the frequency of appearances in possible scumteams:

kanye: 6
CNH: 5
LLD: 5
RC: 3
GI: 6
Nuwen: 7
Parama: 2
SpyreX:

Here's the scenario: we lynch SpyreX. He's town. We eliminate 14 possible scumteams and have a much easier time tomorrow narrowing down the scum (in LYLO?). Or... we lynch SpyreX. He's scum. We have to pick from 14 possible scumteams to lynch from tomorrow (with two more lynches, if my math is right).

I really don't think he's scum, though. NONE of the redirect/vig shot/D1 madness makes sense with SpyreX as scum, unless I'm just completely missing something. As a little experiment, let's see what happens when SpyreX is removed from the equation:

Parama, GreyICE, RC
Nuwen, RC, LLD
GreyICE, LLD, Nuwen
RC, Nuwen, LLD

That gives us with RC, LLD, and Nuwen each in 3 possible scumteams, GreyICE in 2, and Parama in 1.

The only way CNH is scum is if it's with SpyreX. The only way kanye is scum is if it's with SpyreX.

Of course, if I'm off about all of this and SpyreX IS scum, then this game makes a lot more sense and boils down to scum WIFOMing the shit out of their fakeclaims. But I still can't see SpyreX-scum going this BALLS DEEP on a plan that hinges on WIFOM.

↑ kanyeknowsbest wrote:the problem with the logical leaps your making here reck is that it assumes that scum MUST have voted for fellow scum. this is not the case at all. suppose spyrex is scum and everyone who voted him onto the wagon was town. if thats the case then scum had absolutely zero need to cross vote.

This is true -- but me and SpyreX were the ONLY people that had anywhere near enough consensus to get a spot on the wagon without our hypothetical scumbuddies absolutely needing to stay on. Everyone else had 4 votes or less, meaning that if SpyreX & I are both town, the above logic is the best way to narrow down the list.

I DON'T think SpyreX is scum after all this shit, but proving it to the rest of the game may be the only way to nail the entire scumteam.