Mini 356 - Sanity Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:00 am

Post by Primate »

Two naive cops? Unlikely.

Guess that makes Thok innocent or Scalebane a liar.

I guessed TDA was a cop, otherwise his lack of n1 result seemed too out-left-field.

I reckon that a naive mason would have had a scumbuddy partner. This could also explain the way that no Mason partner has come up.

Alko, I assume you are responsible for the invisible votes?

Paranoid = scum? I dunno. We apparantly have a sanish cop, two more semi-cops on top of that seems a bit much.
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:58 am

Post by al_kohaulec »

Primate wrote: I reckon that a naive mason would have had a scumbuddy partner. This could also explain the way that no Mason partner has come up.
:(, I was hoping for a "Oh ya, I was masons with him" sort of claim before analyzing if this was the case or not. It may not be, but we don't know.
Primate wrote: Alko, I assume you are responsible for the invisible votes?
Umm.. I totally missed that. As far as I know I'm not, I either missed or forgot we had invisible votes, I'll try to see if it makes sense if I am them or not, if I am, then I'm apparently not sane.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:24 pm

Post by Thok »

Primate wrote:Two naive cops? Unlikely.
Really? A game with useless cops who think they are real, real cops who think they aren't valuable, and docs and vigs that think of themselves aas being switched around seems vaguely appropriate to me. But I could be wrong.

That said, I assume approximately 2 people (the remaining scum, I could see weirdness where we have three left) are lying about their roles.
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:25 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

ok, I looked up the mystery vote, I have no idea how it could be me if it was. Unless if somebody has an ability they don't know about where they vote the person with the most votes if they're not voting or something, then I'm not sure what the deal is. I can think of very few crazy theories, but they're crazy to the extent that they aren't worth mentioning them.


Hmm.. Colonel Kurtz was a townie, if his sanity was something other than sane, then maybe he wasn't told he was unlynchable, I don't think we can really derive anything from this yet until we have more information though.

From a previous discussion, I could see the possibility of one mafia psych, and one townie psych. The intro. posts suggested there would be one or more psych, guaranteed sane, but not that they would be town aligned.

If one of the two psych's are lying, then I would lean towards bertrand lying because otherwise he's essentially telling the truth, but regardless of what reasons I can add and post, it could really go either way, and I'm going to trust them both until at least one more day passes. The thing I hate is if we don't have a trustworthy cop then our only way of confirming eithre psych is to lynch them, which isn't a good thing.

Lumos claimed gunsmith and at least one result before his sanity was confirmed, so I believe him for now. Also, something to keep in mind is that PBuG is the mafia leader, claimed tracker, and that Lumos targetted Scalebane. Since I believe Lumos's claim based on results matching up with his sanity, that makes me doubtful of Lumos being mafia since otherwise PBuG would have no reason to target Lumos. This also goes to show that mafia do have roles, so I don't think anybody is lying about what role they have.

You could argue that they planned this to confirm one or both of them, but I prefer to choose the option of believing Lumos right now.

TheDoc I am trusting for now. His cop claim seems like it could fit, though it could simply have been fabricated. I'm not too sure on him, but I'm leaning towards town.

Primate I'm leaning towards scum, but now that I'm agreeing with the possibility that we can't trust our psych's, I might not have any valid reasons for believing him to be scum. It might be worth it to test out his claim tonight.

I looked at Bertrand's and Scalebane's results on Thok, and it seems to really imply that Bertrand is town. I would like it very much so if one or both of our psych's checked the cop to see his sanity. That could confirm a lot from him, especially if he lives an extra day. I would especially prefer seeing Bertrand's results before that of Scalebane or Thok from here on out, or at least until I'm more convinced of Bertrand's claim.
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:28 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

I wonder if it's possible that the mod created all the roles, and then randomly distributed alignments and sanities. It's a possibility we need to keep in mind, even though it does make things more difficult.
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:34 am

Post by Primate »

Alko wrote:otherwise PBuG would have no reason to target Lumos
Yeah, but PBuG wasn't a tracker. Which means he either made an extremely lucky guess, or he had some other way of knowing.

As for your second point, I very much doubt that the mod would give the mafia any type of second kill, whther vig or insane doc.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Thu Sep 28, 2006 11:11 am

Post by al_kohaulec »

We know that the mafia didn't have an insane doc, and the vig claim could just as easily be a lie, which is part of the reason I'm in favor of testing the vig claim, to prove it.

As far as PBuG being a tracker, if he wasn't one, then most likely the gunsmith was scum with him and it was coordinated, otherwise I can see him being a mafia tracker, just not necessarily with the name tagged on his godfather name. A lucky guess is still possible though.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:46 am

Post by Thok »

I will add that the vast majority of our roleclaims/reveal have been relatively simple roles for this game (Doctor/Mason/Cop/Psychologist). By that standard Lumos's gunsmith looks out of place.

I don't see any reason why Lumos shouldn't be today's lynch.

vote Lumos
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 8:06 am

Post by Primate »

al_kohaulec wrote:We know that the mafia didn't have an insane doc, and the vig claim could just as easily be a lie, which is part of the reason I'm in favor of testing the vig claim, to prove it.
Yes, but the mafia
could
have had an insane doc, so the roles, sanities couldn't be randomised.

@Alko, wanna suggest a target? Personally Im not really in the mood to vig tonight, as it actually costs us a lynch if I'm not insane and miss.
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 8:53 am

Post by Lumos »

Theres just no love for the gunsmith :P

I don't see how my role doesn't "fit in" with the other roles though...
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 1:19 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

Primate wrote:
al_kohaulec wrote:We know that the mafia didn't have an insane doc, and the vig claim could just as easily be a lie, which is part of the reason I'm in favor of testing the vig claim, to prove it.
Yes, but the mafia
could
have had an insane doc, so the roles, sanities couldn't be randomised.

@Alko, wanna suggest a target? Personally Im not really in the mood to vig tonight, as it actually costs us a lynch if I'm not insane and miss.
I'm trying to think on that personally.

I think if we can bring up two people worthy of a lynch, then obv the second person would be a good target.

Apparently we have 2 psychs, 2 cops, 1 vig, 1 gunsmith, 1 vanilla townie.

Almost definitely town:
Thok - psych (sane)

Probably town/Middle Ground:
Scalebane - cop (naive)
Docs - cop (??? possibly sane)
Bertrand - psych (presumably sane)

Least likely to be town:
Primate - vig (???)
Lumos - gunsmith (paranoid)

Me:
alko - vanilla townie (???)

If Primate vigges somebody tonight, and there's no mafia kill, that will clear him in my eyes. If something happens otherwise, that doesn't guarantee anything, but won't confirm him anymore.

Thok brought up a good point on Lumos's role being the most uncasual role there is, though I don't think that should be counted as a qualifying reason for lynching her, I think she does seem the least likely to be town at this point.

One of the psychs definitely need to check on our other cop's sanity, his and the vigges are IMO the most important right now.

I think Lumos looks like a good lynch, as for vigging, that requires some thought.

If we lynch a townie, it is probably a bad idea to vig anybody tonight, as that could potentially put us at 4 alive, and with 2 scum alive, that'd be the end. Otherwise, my first thoughts were either me or primate. Me because from experience a vanilla townie with unkown powers tends to have the most complicated and harmful abilities. Also I am having trouble keeping up anyways, so my death probably wouldn't be more than the death of another town aligned player. Then the reason for Primate is, if he's scum, obv he would refuse, if he's town, he'd have less reason to if the plan would work. He'd kill himself, confirm himself as town, we'd have no worries then.

This is also assuming he's sane, with the insane doc, a sane vig doesn't seem like too likely a possibility, though it is possible. That could cause the game to end after 2 day/night rotations though. So if he's something other than sane, then it's very likely that he won't be killing his target, which would make it not harmful if he targetted either or us.

however, further thought on this made me think about how, if we don't lynch mafia today, a vigging could potentially end the game for us. Also, regardless if Primate vigged himself, then that loses a powerful role for us later for use in say a lylo situation or something.

So if we lynch mafia, I might be a fair target to test your role on, unless if we can find a second scummy player to target.

Thoughts anyone?

What are people's thoughts on a possible SK who chose not to hit last night? Maybe an insane doc working differently then we expected?
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:38 pm

Post by thedocsalive »

Primate wrote:I guessed TDA was a cop, otherwise his lack of n1 result seemed too out-left-field.
My guess is that mole was just inactive and didn't submit a choice. No reason for a cop not to use his role, especially when it's one of the least dangerous, since we know how sanity will affect it.
alko wrote:As far as PBuG being a tracker, if he wasn't one, then most likely the gunsmith was scum with him and it was coordinated, otherwise I can see him being a mafia tracker, just not necessarily with the name tagged on his godfather name. A lucky guess is still possible though.
I think Lumos is scum with PBuG; I really just can't see this scenario with Lumos as town. I think if PBuG was a tracker, it would have shown up in the lynch scene. The mod has clearly revealed roles thus far (even if we're not exactly sure about colors), so I don't think PBuG was anything other than a GF. Also, alko, if you almost surely trust Thok, then I'm naive.
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 3:14 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

thedocsalive wrote:Also, alko, if you almost surely trust Thok, then I'm naive.
Oh, whoops. Switch the sanities on you and Scalebane. That's a mistake on my part. :P
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 4:23 pm

Post by bertrand »

Each role has a sanity. That's why I find it hard to believe that there's a vanilla townie.. is there any flavor with that?
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Fri Sep 29, 2006 4:29 pm

Post by Thok »

Alko, is it really necessary to direct/control night actions this early?
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 5:34 am

Post by Thesp »

Vote Count


Lumos
- 2 (thedocsalive, Thok)

Not Voting
- 5 (al_kohaulec, bertrand, Lumos, Primate, Scalebane)


With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 6:44 am

Post by al_kohaulec »

bertrand wrote:Each role has a sanity. That's why I find it hard to believe that there's a vanilla townie.. is there any flavor with that?
Well, I know I can't paraphrase, so I'm not sure if I can even say it does or does not have flavor attached. I'll have to get mod clarification on that part.
Thok wrote:Alko, is it really necessary to direct/control night actions this early?
I'm just trying to figure out what's best for the town. One of the claims I trust the least is the vig claim, which is why i want it tested. I'd like to hear any thoughts you may have on the subject, or what claims you believe/don't believe.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 8:21 am

Post by Primate »

The reason I have believed for quite a while that there is a vanilla non-sane townie in the game is because of that bizarre bodyless vote floating round. If any role is going to monkey around with a vote, it would be a vanillia townie, for whom their vote is their most prominent feature.

I think Scalebane is probably the psych priority, as any deviation in his results from the sanity he has would be equivilent to a cop.

Alko, why do you distrust the vig claim least? Why do you think it unlikely for there to be a vig in this game?
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 9:24 am

Post by Thok »

al_kohaulec wrote:
Thok wrote:Alko, is it really necessary to direct/control night actions this early?
I'm just trying to figure out what's best for the town. One of the claims I trust the least is the vig claim, which is why i want it tested. I'd like to hear any thoughts you may have on the subject, or what claims you believe/don't believe.
The point is that by making all of these arrangements public it can easily tell the mafia what the optimal play for a nightkill is. It's also weird that the person with the least information (the vanilla townie) is the person trying to direct the night actions.

Random thought-we should check to see if PJ breadcrumbed who his mason partner is. That's important enough to do now that I will
unvote
just so the day doesn't end prematurely.
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 9:29 am

Post by Primate »

I must admit I thought it was Alko. PJ was doin' a bit breadcrumbin to drive us that way, I thought.
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:29 am

Post by thedocsalive »

Primate wrote:I must admit I thought it was Alko. PJ was doin' a bit breadcrumbin to drive us that way, I thought.
I noticed this too. Early on, PJ made this post:
petroleumjelly wrote:I don't have much new to say, but there are other people who certainly should be talking more. My impressions on the game so far:

Town:

PetroleumJelly
Al_Kohaulec

Off in their Own World
:
Primate
Bertrand
Scalebane

Walking the Line
:
PBug
Lumos
Colonel Kurtz

Leaning Towards Being Scum
:
Maz Medias
DrippingGoofball
No Current Read
:
Harry_Potter
Mole
Now, I don't see how PJ can make a post where he lists all twelve players, but only thinks of two of them as town (one being himself), unless he was trying to tell us something. That's what I thought initially, anyway.
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 5:33 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

Hmmm.. that makes the mason thing sound more confusing. I'll try to look at PJ's posts myself, but if he really was a mason, then from what the above players are saying, I sound like a likely mason partner, but I was never told anything about being masons. Maybe the mod was being a bastard and made the mason pair naive to their masonship, I dunno, but if I die and turn up mason, that's what I'd assume.

But I was given no info. towards being a mason, just to get that out there.
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 5:41 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

petroleumjelly wrote:Argh. I hate it when people are going to be absent in games with fixed deadlines. Harry_Potter isn't going to respond to anything until the 10th, so I see little point in voting him (as he can't exactly defend himself) until that time. We might as well press on people who we can actually get reactions from.

Unvote: Lumos, Vote: Primate
.
Primate wrote:So you're not vanilla then? Smooth. what does this question accomplish, except make vanilla townies (if there are any) more noticable?

unvote vote harry potter
Primate does a little fishing of his own here. "Just to make sure - you're not vanilla townie?" is the feel I get from it.

I will say this much. There will be NO "strict" vanilla townies in this game. And that is because everybody has a Sanity. More likely, there will be "chocolate" townies: people who would
otherwise
be townies, but also have a Sanity. I would rather not continue speculation as to the nature of the townies in this game, as the most likely end result will be an accidental outing of a power role and/or a townie.

Reading over PJ's posts, I do seem like the best candidate for PJ's mason partner, if he hinted at one. Otherwise I'd say one of the players listed under "off in their own world" or more of a stretch "no read" as another possibility, but I quoted this above post from PJ because it refers to vanilla townies. Perhaps it may have been hinting towards something, I'm not sure.



Also, due to that mystery vote last night, an idea is maybe to try to have everybody voting somebody when day ends, that way we can maybe determine if it's affected by somebody not voting or not, or maybe based on how they vote. Who knows. We might gain some info. from it. (And to have everybody vote, we simply, after deciding the lynch, spread out their votes, and have the last voter vote for the lynch target.)
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 5:48 pm

Post by Thok »

While I agree that alko-mason was hinted PJ, I noticed one other thing
petroleumjelly wrote:
Unvote: Al_Kohaulec
. I don't need Ibby to tell me Alky is tricksy. :wink:

If I am insane,
Vote: Lumos
. *eye twitch* Let it be noted!

We need to move out of the random voting stage faster than normal. And it seems as if lots of people have been using my flapdoodle line lately. It's for the better: everybody ought to know the word flapdoodle. It is necessary for daily living.
The middle paragraph hints at Lumos possibly being PJ's mason partner. I know, like we need another reason to vote Lumos.
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Sat Sep 30, 2006 6:09 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

ooh, i missed that little hint there, that
is
very interesting...


And Lumos was on PJ's "walking the line" list. I don't think that has much to do with that post, but ya, that probably is a good hint from PJ.
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