you break my heart. haven't you been saying this whole time you've agreed with my read on lala?
I think Ranger's approach this game is fairly standard for her. I think that her just doing her own thing, especially in this situation, definitely falls in line with how she would play as town, and there's another reason that I find her town based on her play which I don't really know if I should talk about at this point or not (since it's kind of speculative...) and either way I don't really see why we would lynch her when she's claimed a confirmable town role.
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 9:55 am
by TehBrawlGuy
In post 388, Bellaphant wrote:That you are scum, so didn't need to sort all of the town, pip. I dunno why you are going for 'meta game' when the answer seems obvious.
Tehbrawl, why?
In post 369, TehBrawlGuy wrote:ranger's completely focused on discussing if we should townhunt and hasn't really commented on /anyone/ as scum except for me, which I read as intentional avoidance
To expand on that, in 44, Ranger posts a reads list w/ no reasoning, then in 45 she votse Aristo, who isn't even the most scum on her list (that was Nina) with no reasoning. After that, she devolved into only attempting to clear Pie. Her only post indicating suspicion of
anyone
is her 245 on me, which again has no actual reasoning. When I called her out on it, and her avoidance of commenting on the Nina wagon, she stated in her 343 that she's got new reads - but she doesn't post any of them, doesn't explain why she wants to lynch me, and STILL doesn't address Nina.
she's made no attempt to scumhunt other than a passing comment that we should lynch me
she's actively avoided ever mentioning Nina, despite Nina being one of her top scumreads
she's never posted reasoning for anything she's done
she's never posted reads since we got out of RVS
she's active lurked super well by tunnelling on using the flip to conftown a strong player, despite nobody agreeing with it
I also don't buy the part about her being modconfirmed at some point
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 9:59 am
by pieguyn
even if you "don't buy the part about her being modconfirmed at some point", why is that a reason for lynching her on day 1? it's more correct theory-wise to leave her alive until day 3 or so, and then lynch/question the claim if she still hasn't been confirmed by then
you break my heart. haven't you been saying this whole time you've agreed with my read on lala?
I think Ranger's approach this game is fairly standard for her. I think that her just doing her own thing, especially in this situation, definitely falls in line with how she would play as town, and there's another reason that I find her town based on her play which I don't really know if I should talk about at this point or not (since it's kind of speculative...) and either way I don't really see why we would lynch her when she's claimed a confirmable town role.
I do. Lala is a fine wagon and I support it as an alternate to Ranger. Part of the reason I'm on Ranger is that you're on Lala and I don't think it's helpful to have us both pushing the same big wagon - I'd rather have two so that we don't just easily lynch Lala and learn nothing. Any of lala/spiffeh/ranger are good lynches to me. I would love the speculation and meta on Ranger - is it normal for her to be this unhelpful and opaque as Town? This whole thing just reads to me as a Scum gambit to coast to late-game and then deal with the claim by being a Scum PR or just going "oh i was drawing the NK lol".
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:06 am
by Nahdia
still think this is Ranger's towngame tbh.
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:07 am
by pieguyn
In post 393, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I would love the speculation and meta on Ranger - is it normal for her to be this unhelpful and opaque as Town?
I guess I'll just say it: I think her being clear is exactly the reason she's being this "unhelpful and opaque". I don't claim to have a good accuracy reading her, but if I think about it, I think trying to play less open and more under-the-radar in order to dodge NKs until later in the game is something she would do.
In post 393, TehBrawlGuy wrote:This whole thing just reads to me as a Scum gambit to coast to late-game and then deal with the claim by being a Scum PR or just going "oh i was drawing the NK lol".
hence why, if D3 comes and she tries to claim some bullshit role which can't actually get confirmed, _then_ it's correct to lynch her unless she has a really compelling explanation for it
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:08 am
by Nahdia
i would explain it but it would actually be detrimental for the motivations she has. it's one of those things you'll kinda just have to trust me on.
explain in detail if possible, and if your reason is "natural posting" I'll slap your head off.
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:21 am
by TehBrawlGuy
In post 392, pieguyn wrote:even if you "don't buy the part about her being modconfirmed at some point", why is that a reason for lynching her on day 1? it's more correct theory-wise to leave her alive until day 3 or so, and then lynch/question the claim if she still hasn't been confirmed by then
Let's run through the scenarios:
Ranger is Town PR
: We out her with a claim, swap lynch targets and she presumably gets blocked/killed - This is bad, but why would a role like Cop/Vig/etc claim as she did on D1 and put a target on themselves? That makes no sense, so I don't think she falls into this.
Ranger is IC:
We out her, swap lynch targets, and she dies in the night - her getting outed and dying is going to happen anyway, so it doesn't hurt much to have it now, especially since we have a conftown in Nina as is
Ranger is VT gambiting:
We probably mislynch, but we only lose an unhelpful VT - this is the realistic WCS to me
Ranger is Scum PR, gambiting to stay alive and use her power:
We either lynch her today and she dies before she can use her role, which is massive, or we force her into a hard claim and make it harder for her to wiggle later - both of these are huge wins for us, and this is the most likely scenario to me
Ranger is mafia goon
- She's caught and we lynch her today - this is another big win
Situations #1 and #2 make no sense to me - why would a PR or IC claim this? What advantage does it give them? I've thought she was gambiting VT since the claim, and didn't want to say it for fear of ruining the plan, but at this point I don't believe that.
If she was truly a VT attempting to draw the NK, why hasn't she scumhunted or done
anything
to make herself a tempting target to the Scumteam? You don't draw the NK by softclaiming confirmable and then sitting on your hands. Also, if she WAS a VT and wanted to draw the early kill, why would she push to confirm Pie as town, given how strong Pie's town game is, and that Pie would be the obvious N1 kill over herself?
pedit:
I think trying to play less open and more under-the-radar in order to dodge NKs until later in the game is something she would do.
Why would a town PR "trying to play UTR and dodge kills" claim confirmable under no pressure on D1? Her actions don't line up as Town PR, they don't make sense as Town VT, but they make a lot of sense as Scum imo.
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:45 am
by pieguyn
In post 398, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Why would a town PR "trying to play UTR and dodge kills" claim confirmable under no pressure on D1? Her actions don't line up as Town PR, they don't make sense as Town VT, but they make a lot of sense as Scum imo.
she claims a confirmable role so that people (in theory) can rule her as being scum and focus on scum hunting elsewhere, and then tries to play under-the-radar so she can survive as late into the game as possible.
i've definitely seen something like this done in other games, specifically the idea of a clear trying to keep themselves alive to reduce the amount of people the player list has to sort. this seems entirely plausible to me and i'm not really going to speculate on her role is when i have no way of knowing if i'm evaluating every possibility or not
