Side note: I had hoped this game would be over by now, as I will have limited access for three weeks from tomorrow (which means the rest of this game). Prod me if I'm gone for too long.
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Setael beat me to it. I'm not at all surprised that Elmo tries to gets a mason lynch. The reasoning is poor. Elmo is kind of linked with farside. Case closed.
Side note: I had hoped this game would be over by now, as I will have limited access for three weeks from tomorrow (which means the rest of this game). Prod me if I'm gone for too long.
Vote: Elmo
Side note: I had hoped this game would be over by now, as I will have limited access for three weeks from tomorrow (which means the rest of this game). Prod me if I'm gone for too long.
I am willing to vote elmo as well but not yet and definetly not when I know that if were wrong, then I could be going right into a quicklynch... knowing both me and Samruc are town means that there is at least one scum not voting currently... I want a deadline of the 8th of February, thoughts?
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
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I'm willing to vote Elmo.
Samruc and Porochaz, what are your thoughts on the fact that Farside's title is the same as your claimed title? Any ideas regarding that?
Setael, if Elmo is town, do you think it's reasonable to lynch a mason to test their claim at that time? Who would you be voting, if not Elmo?
Yosarian, what are your thoughts on the various reactions to Elmo's post?
And C_D, who do you think your "counterpart" is?
Elmo, you said that Farside-Samruc-Porochaz was "doubtful" before night fell. Is that still your opinion?
Samruc and Porochaz, what are your thoughts on the fact that Farside's title is the same as your claimed title? Any ideas regarding that?
Setael, if Elmo is town, do you think it's reasonable to lynch a mason to test their claim at that time? Who would you be voting, if not Elmo?
Yosarian, what are your thoughts on the various reactions to Elmo's post?
And C_D, who do you think your "counterpart" is?
Elmo, you said that Farside-Samruc-Porochaz was "doubtful" before night fell. Is that still your opinion?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
I have no idea, I think it must be a mistake, Sister of the blood does sound like it could be for either masons or mafia, it would be upsetting if it was. I cant really see any other explanation for it. I hope there is... because this is essentially a game breaking thing we have here... but looking at my role PM and the townie role PM at the start of the thread, we are town. Our win condition is the same...
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
Welp, from memory, I did my thing of changing my mind until I settled on Yos, Bookitty = town, S&P = scum with either Setael or c_d. I couldn't really find a third partner for them that I liked, though, which is why I went through all the possible threesomes to make sure I wasn't missing one, and then (I think) said that Samruc & Porochaz were the scum with c_d an SK. The reason I ruled out Farside being scum was that she followed me onto Samruc on d1 and indeed stayed there while skitzer got lynched; I didn't think she would have risked that, if opinion turned away from skitzer or something happened, then she'd had to have stayed on the scum lynch d1. That, and the way she was baying to get the masons lynched seemed like she wasn't scum with them. I suppose after deciding I was wrong about Setael being bussy, I also ruled out Farside acting like that. Hrm. But, no, I mean we've the two scummiest people claiming masons with each other and just happening to have the same rolename as a dead mafia member, when I've been saying they're scum for I-don't-know-how-long. If it weren't for the rolename thing, I'd maybe be reconsidering due to Farside's behaviour, but it's pretty much
I know he has to be daft to actually claim that name. You simply can't start with the assumption that scum won't do anything daft; people slip up. Before this game, if you told me someone would claim weaponsmith for literally no reason on page 3, I'd have said you were full of it, you know?
I mean, apart from me, you've got Bookitty, Setael and Yos, and you have to start indulging in some serious conspiracy theories to make a scumgroup with Farside out of that. Maybe Yos, but certainly not either of the other two, in my view; it's fairly obvious that Setael is town, at least. That, or the two scummiest people still in the game who just happened to claim masons with each other? Occam's razor begs the obvious conclusion.
If c_d was an SK, he'd have been forced to kill last night, so either a) the mafia attempted to NK c_d who's NK immune AND c_d's kill was blocked by a doc (either town or mafia roleblocker shouldn't have blocked him) or b) both kills were blocked for bizarre reasons. I dislike his claim, and I think there's something up with that, but I can't really see him as an SK right now.
One thing I will say is: if at some point there's a massclaim, and no-one claims anything that can have blocked last night's kill, you need to consider the possibility that c_d's a NK immune SK. He's most confirmed as non-mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was targeted last night, and him daykilling Antithesis makes more sense if Antithesis can find him guilty, otherwise he'd leave Anti alive to weaken the mafia. I don't think that's likely at this point, but it's the kind of thing I want to say in case it crops up later and no-one else thinks of it.
I'm probably going to get lynched, but I think it's pretty much autowin unless you totally ignore the obvious, at this point. So I'm pretty okay with it, like; I would never have faceplanted with Farside like that if I was scum with her, but obviously you can't accept that as a reason not to lynch me, and I have to take my knocks for being wrong about her to the extent I was. I think I accused literally everyone apart from her. (I was never very confidant that she was town, but it certainly looks bad.)
I can't think of a good reason not to lynch me now, unless there's some overarching reason I've missed that will make people change their minds; you might need the time tomorrow.
literally impossible
for Samruc to know the phrase "sister of the blood" as a pro-town mason.I know he has to be daft to actually claim that name. You simply can't start with the assumption that scum won't do anything daft; people slip up. Before this game, if you told me someone would claim weaponsmith for literally no reason on page 3, I'd have said you were full of it, you know?
I mean, apart from me, you've got Bookitty, Setael and Yos, and you have to start indulging in some serious conspiracy theories to make a scumgroup with Farside out of that. Maybe Yos, but certainly not either of the other two, in my view; it's fairly obvious that Setael is town, at least. That, or the two scummiest people still in the game who just happened to claim masons with each other? Occam's razor begs the obvious conclusion.
If c_d was an SK, he'd have been forced to kill last night, so either a) the mafia attempted to NK c_d who's NK immune AND c_d's kill was blocked by a doc (either town or mafia roleblocker shouldn't have blocked him) or b) both kills were blocked for bizarre reasons. I dislike his claim, and I think there's something up with that, but I can't really see him as an SK right now.
One thing I will say is: if at some point there's a massclaim, and no-one claims anything that can have blocked last night's kill, you need to consider the possibility that c_d's a NK immune SK. He's most confirmed as non-mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was targeted last night, and him daykilling Antithesis makes more sense if Antithesis can find him guilty, otherwise he'd leave Anti alive to weaken the mafia. I don't think that's likely at this point, but it's the kind of thing I want to say in case it crops up later and no-one else thinks of it.
I'm probably going to get lynched, but I think it's pretty much autowin unless you totally ignore the obvious, at this point. So I'm pretty okay with it, like; I would never have faceplanted with Farside like that if I was scum with her, but obviously you can't accept that as a reason not to lynch me, and I have to take my knocks for being wrong about her to the extent I was. I think I accused literally everyone apart from her. (I was never very confidant that she was town, but it certainly looks bad.)
*shrug*
I can't think of a good reason not to lynch me now, unless there's some overarching reason I've missed that will make people change their minds; you might need the time tomorrow.
Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
If C_D's claim is correct, there is an SK counterpart with very similar flavor to his own. (Night follows day, and so on.) Having both a town and an antitown group with the same flavor would fit in with this kind of duality.Bookitty wrote:Samruc and Porochaz, what are your thoughts on the fact that Farside's title is the same as your claimed title? Any ideas regarding that?
You really do think I'm stupid, don't you?Elmo wrote:but it's pretty much literally impossible for Samruc to know the phrase "sister of the blood" as a pro-town mason.
Look at how farside was lynched. How do you think I would have behaved if I knew, that when she died she would out me & P if we had been scum partners? And how do you think farside would have reacted to the mason claim when I suddenly got this "stupid idea" as her scum partner?
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If I had a counterpat, then I don't have any strong ideas on who it is. I do have an idea, but I'm unwilling to reveal them at the moment.
We lynched scum. Why would I have been forced to kill last night if I were the SK?
We lynched scum. Why would I have been forced to kill last night if I were the SK?
"Miracles of Science" or "Freaks of Nature"?
Carp Logic. I'm so totally using that at some point.~ Mr. Flay
Carp Logic. I'm so totally using that at some point.~ Mr. Flay
Here is a look at what elmo said about farside in relation to her post agreeing with his nonexistent case on me.
I think it threw him off when she agreed with his case on me and he changed up his play toward her. He lists her in his top 3 scum right away, but not long after switches from distancing from her to defending her/buddying up to her so blatantly that we'd never think it'd be interaction between scum buddies, which is what he's still trying to work today.
@Bookitty: if Elmo came up town, it wouldn't really change my opinion about the masons. I think he's scum trying to get a mason mislynched, but it's possible he's town that's just wrong about them. I do not think it's likely that farside was part of a scum team with samruc and porochaz.
elmo wrote:Farside: I think you're doing okay - I don't want to "rub salt in the wound" at all. I was just making sure everyone got looked at - it's dangerous to let anyone have a free ride to the endgame without any kind of scrutiny.
elmo wrote:Farside gives me bad vibes for a while now. I agree with Ether that especially 103 is bad, for the same reasons. On the other hand, she's relatively new and writes in that slightly hyperbolic way that makes my whiskers twitch a little. She's also probably the easiest target going, after skitzer. I really don't quite know right now, but I do think she needs more scrutiny, and I think I could live with a farside lynch.
elmo wrote:Here's an interesting thought: I'd bet that Farside probably doesn't understand the significance of OMGUS. In that light, 103 looks a bit different, no?
elmo wrote:Criticising someone's play in a specific game is generally fine. Criticising someone's playstyle tends to be roughly the same at criticising them personally, and is correspondingly ruder and more liable to annoy them.farside wrote:Post 78 questioned Yos2: Good points made, just wonder why Elmo was nice about it. – (overall town vibe and defend himself well)
elmo wrote:I'm prepared to live with a Porochaz or Farside lynch, although I'm also leaning vaguely town on Farside. I could be wrong, though.
elmo wrote:You're unvoting him to jump onto the Farside wagon, Farside being a newbie and therefore an easy target.
elmo wrote:Lynches of farside or Porochaz I can kinda live with. I get both newbtown vibes and weird scum vibes from farside, so that could go either way.
elmo wrote:Farside: Justify why you wanted Skitzer lynched, please.
elmo wrote:Farside's exaggerated response is interesting, yea, hmm. I'm still up in the air about her. I don't feel very good about lynching her today, anyway. Hmm.
December 21 - Farside agrees with elmo's (imo) nonexistent case on me and lists me as her #2 choice for scum.
elmo wrote:This kinda thing is cute, but it's not what I'm doing; I genuinely am pretty sure Setael is scum. Although Farside's reaction is certainly interesting, considering who I suspect.Bookitty wrote:Now this non-case on Setael. I considered the notion that it was a gambit to try to lure others into voting for her and catch scum.
elmo wrote:I think number three is probably either Porochaz or Farside;
elmo wrote: I reckon Farside's town. I'm not too confidant, because I find her kinda hard to read, but that's what I think.
elmo wrote:I suggest everyone post a list of people who they can live with being lynched. Mine are Setael, Yosarian, Porochaz, and Farside, in that order (yes, I still weakly feel that Farside's town, but I'm not very confident).
elmo wrote: I've said that I think Farside is town and that I'm not convinced enough that Porochaz is scum to lynch him today. It's hardly mysterious why I'm staying away from those wagons; it's because I don't want those people lynched today, and I've said why.
elmo wrote: I've done some rereading, and I'm now fairly confidant that Farside is town.
elmo wrote:Gah. I suppose it is best that people lynch who they believe is scummiest, otherwise we'll have difficulty getting closer to endgame/LyLo, but I just don't have much faith in a Farside lynch, right now.
It looks to me as though Elmo's attitude toward/opinion of farside changed as a result of her agreeing with his case on me. I think up to that point he was trying to distance from her - expressing suspicion of her, but excusing her play as possibly just newbie town.elmo wrote:I don't particularly disagree, Bookitty, except I think the masons are scum. I'd say, if you want to lynch one of me and Farside, you should probably go for the person you think is scummier; until, like, a post ago, I thought that was Farside. I don't think she's scum, either, but I'm always going to be more certain about myself. (I think the point Yos makes is correct; I can now only really be scum with Farside. So there's little point lynching me instead of lynching her. *shrug*)
I think it threw him off when she agreed with his case on me and he changed up his play toward her. He lists her in his top 3 scum right away, but not long after switches from distancing from her to defending her/buddying up to her so blatantly that we'd never think it'd be interaction between scum buddies, which is what he's still trying to work today.
@Bookitty: if Elmo came up town, it wouldn't really change my opinion about the masons. I think he's scum trying to get a mason mislynched, but it's possible he's town that's just wrong about them. I do not think it's likely that farside was part of a scum team with samruc and porochaz.
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I do think Elmo is the lynch for today. Partly that's a factor of his having seemed more upset at Farside's wagon than he was at his own, partly it's the near-certainty I have that the masons would not have name-claimed a role that was exactly the same as the Mafia role if they'd had ANY idea that were the case, and partly it's this:
I think that's three on, but if not, I don't mind hammering either.
If C_D is truthful, then his counterpart seemingly should only be able to kill during the day (as was the case with Antithesis's death). So under no circumstances that I can see can we assume an SK would be FORCED to kill last night. If C_D has a counterpart, then I suspect that counterpart to be Elmo. If not, then he's most likely scum due to his linkage and reactions regarding Farside, now known scum.Elmo wrote:If c_d was an SK, he'd have been forced to kill last night, so either a) the mafia attempted to NK c_d who's NK immune AND c_d's kill was blocked by a doc (either town or mafia roleblocker shouldn't have blocked him) or b) both kills were blocked for bizarre reasons. I dislike his claim, and I think there's something up with that, but I can't really see him as an SK right now.
vote: Elmo
I think that's three on, but if not, I don't mind hammering either.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Oh, I'm perfectly happy with an elmo lynch at this point. Dispite the wierd mason name thing, I still think the most likely scenerio is that my analysis from yesteday is correct and Elmo is scumbuddies with Farside. I laid out a lot of reasons to think so yesterday, and they haven't changed.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
Uh. There wasn't a wagon on me until today, which I can entirely understand. I'm not upset at either.
Yeah, the masons would never have claimed a rolename exactly similar to the mafia role, because they'd have been speedlynched ten seconds after the mod unlocked the thread. Except they're not. Do you see the problem with this?
The third part... I think you've managed to misread it or something. I'm not talking about an SK out there somewhere, I said very specifically "if c_d is an SK".
Assumption: c_d killed Ether.
Therefore: c_d is a killing role, that is, either a vig or an SK.
Assumption: Serial killers are forced to kill every night. (This has been the case every place I've seen an SK role.)
Therefore: If c_d is an SK, he is forced to kill last night.
Assumption: The mafia killed last night.
Assumption: Having
Therefore: There was only one kill last night, which was blocked.
Therefore: It is highly unlikely c_d is an SK.
If c_d is truthful, there is no reason to assume a SK killed Antithesis; there might be a mafia member with a one-shot ability that has the same killing method as c_d. I think that's roughly as unlikely as a SK that has the same killing method as c_d, which is to say pretty unlikely, in my mind.
I personally think the rolename thing is damning, but it's no surprise that I'm getting lynched; I can't even seriously object to it. But I will be most amused to see what kind of scumpairs people come up with tomorrow beyond the masons. Setael must figure it's Farside - Elmo - Yos, that would be funny.
Guess it's hammertime. I'm vanilla. Gooooo tooown!
Yeah, the masons would never have claimed a rolename exactly similar to the mafia role, because they'd have been speedlynched ten seconds after the mod unlocked the thread. Except they're not. Do you see the problem with this?
The third part... I think you've managed to misread it or something. I'm not talking about an SK out there somewhere, I said very specifically "if c_d is an SK".
Assumption: c_d killed Ether.
Therefore: c_d is a killing role, that is, either a vig or an SK.
Assumption: Serial killers are forced to kill every night. (This has been the case every place I've seen an SK role.)
Therefore: If c_d is an SK, he is forced to kill last night.
Assumption: The mafia killed last night.
Assumption: Having
two
kills blocked in one night is highly unlikely.Therefore: There was only one kill last night, which was blocked.
Therefore: It is highly unlikely c_d is an SK.
If c_d is truthful, there is no reason to assume a SK killed Antithesis; there might be a mafia member with a one-shot ability that has the same killing method as c_d. I think that's roughly as unlikely as a SK that has the same killing method as c_d, which is to say pretty unlikely, in my mind.
I personally think the rolename thing is damning, but it's no surprise that I'm getting lynched; I can't even seriously object to it. But I will be most amused to see what kind of scumpairs people come up with tomorrow beyond the masons. Setael must figure it's Farside - Elmo - Yos, that would be funny.
Guess it's hammertime. I'm vanilla. Gooooo tooown!
Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
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The coven continues to argue -- twisted nails and twisted eyes point accusingly at the witches in turn.
One of the old hags scratches her hand without really thinking about it. After a couple minutes, she finds herself scratching again. Soon, the itch becomes nigh incontrollable.
And then her eyes widen in realization. "Oh no!," screams Setael. "No, no, no, this
Her eyes water, and she glances at the coven with in crazed anticipation. "Somebody help me...
She then promptly falls to the ground, quite dead.
~~~~~
Elmo (2): Samruc, Bookitty
6 alive, 4 to lynch.
One of the old hags scratches her hand without really thinking about it. After a couple minutes, she finds herself scratching again. Soon, the itch becomes nigh incontrollable.
And then her eyes widen in realization. "Oh no!," screams Setael. "No, no, no, this
cannot
be happening! Not to me
!"Her eyes water, and she glances at the coven with in crazed anticipation. "Somebody help me...
I can feel it burning in me!
"She then promptly falls to the ground, quite dead.
Setael, Sister of the Blood, Mafia
has died from a nasty little scratch.~~~~~
After Death Vote Count
Elmo (2): Samruc, Bookitty
Not Voting: chaotic_diablo, Elmo, Porochaz, Yosarian2
6 alive, 4 to lynch.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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If Elmo were scum, then we would have scum Setael shooting for his own defeat. Setael was the one who hammered farside. Now he's shooting to kill another partner? Exactly how does this fit?Yosarian2 wrote:Huh.
We might have 1 more mafia member, or we might just have a SK left. Or we might have both, I guess. If there is 1 mafia member left, I still think it's probably Elmo.
CD, did you kill Setael?
I didn't kill Setael.
"Miracles of Science" or "Freaks of Nature"?
Carp Logic. I'm so totally using that at some point.~ Mr. Flay
Carp Logic. I'm so totally using that at some point.~ Mr. Flay
That was probably not what the SK intended... I can't see three mafia, vs two masons with the same name, it's too asymmetrical, so there should only be one killer left.
I might be wrong, but I think it's mass claim for the win. If no one counterclaims C_D, I'll believe him. If someone claims doc/role blocker/whatever stopped Setael from killing, I'll believe him/her. This should give us enough confirmed pro-towns to nail this.
Before we decide, I want everyone to try to imagine a scenario where this would fail. No one outs themselves yet, please.
I might be wrong, but I think it's mass claim for the win. If no one counterclaims C_D, I'll believe him. If someone claims doc/role blocker/whatever stopped Setael from killing, I'll believe him/her. This should give us enough confirmed pro-towns to nail this.
Before we decide, I want everyone to try to imagine a scenario where this would fail. No one outs themselves yet, please.
Hmm. I now think people need to reread Setael and me.. I can vaguely understand being lynched with only Farside dead, but I really think having dead SetaelScum should change things. Particularly wanting to lynch her day 2 (adsf;ljjklh why is my gut always right) and criticising her case on Porochaz, which we now know was trumped up. (I would pay good money to have seen the expression on her face when I said I was 90% sure she was scum. )
If we've got a mafia threesome, from my perspective, #3 has to be either Yos or Bookitty. On my desk, there is a bit of paper from just before night 2 with Bookitty - Setael and Setael - Yosarian circled on it, which annoys me. I think I see a better case for Bookitty, although it's hard to rule out Yos - the FoS/unFoS thing, for example, I dislike. Also don't like how he seemed to avoid commenting on Setael. Hrm. But.
I think 382 strongly indicates Setael was trying to get me mislynched today by trying to connect me to Farside. In retrospect, I'm seriously wondering how coincidental is it that Bookitty readily pushes the same thing.
In my mind, Bookitty needs to explain:
1. "Vig or SK got him" in 101. No, really, you say several times it's a vig or a SK, this is a big deal to me.
2. Seems to be remarkably quick and consistent to say we've got an SK.
3. Needs to explain precisely why Setael was town - "Her responses seem about the same as mine would be" is a real weak reason, actually, considering Setael's decent scum. The constant steam of "craplogic", "non-case", etc around that time makes me wonder. Losing Setael at that point would hurt. I also think there's a contrast between that and how one of her reasons for lynching Farside is "A general tone of agreeing with whatever wagon is going on at the time, a general sense that she's following the votes of other people" which seems at least somewhat comparable to my case on Porochaz. I also think she's too ready to accept SetaelTown based on "Setael still looks like town in this scenario, because she spotted a connection (actively scumhunting) that wasn't all that obvious, but now we know exists whether they are scum or town" which is quite dubious to my mind.
4. Shift from "Farside agreeing with Elmo might make him town" circa 178 to "defended and supported Elmo all through this game so I can see a Farside-Elmo scumteam pretty easily" in 336.
5. Craptastic vote in 383. I thought you were being daft about SK thing, but "I don't mind hammering either" gives me the heebie jeebies.
6. Needs to explain why Farside was scum. I never saw it, personally, evidently others did, but "Elmo has already sort of indicated a willingness to bus her with this" in 350, for example, seems far too certain she's going to flip scum. Bussing at that point makes massive amounts of sense, and that's what it feels like.
7. From 248: "The reason that Elmo was suspicious to a number of people (and has come under some heavy fire from Setael) is because he made a non-case on Setael in the first place." Right, so which bits of the dead scum's "heavy fire" do you agree with?
8. "Either way I guess this isn't much good for Elmo" in 290, specifically the bit about timing my attacks on Setael such that I knew the masons were town.
My best guess is that they bus Farside, NK someone last night, and get me mislynched today for the win. I now think Bookitty is linked with Setael at least as strongly as I am with Farside, if not moreso, hrm.
Yos: In your opinion, would weaponsmith + 2 confirmed innocent masons + doc vs. 3 mafia vs. 1 daykill/nightkill SK be balanced? Or something like that? I find weaponsmith + masons + vig + doc vs. 3 mafia quite unlikely.. (Standard rolefishing disclaimer)
Ninja edit:
Samruc: I've thought about it, and I think it's a good idea; I don't want to post my reasoning at the moment, but we've only got two people who haven't claimed anyway, and I can't think of a situation in which this seriously hurts us.
Day 2, not night 2. I'm not sure what this means, I assumed it was a nightkill from what Ibaesha said. I suppose it's possible that changes things with respect to c_d.. I'll have to think about that some more. (Regardless of what I said yesterday, I think a SK that alternatives between daykills and nightkills might fit.)ibaesha wrote:[*]Ether,Hedgewitch, killed by a nasty little scratch Day 2
If we've got a mafia threesome, from my perspective, #3 has to be either Yos or Bookitty. On my desk, there is a bit of paper from just before night 2 with Bookitty - Setael and Setael - Yosarian circled on it, which annoys me. I think I see a better case for Bookitty, although it's hard to rule out Yos - the FoS/unFoS thing, for example, I dislike. Also don't like how he seemed to avoid commenting on Setael. Hrm. But.
I think 382 strongly indicates Setael was trying to get me mislynched today by trying to connect me to Farside. In retrospect, I'm seriously wondering how coincidental is it that Bookitty readily pushes the same thing.
In my mind, Bookitty needs to explain:
1. "Vig or SK got him" in 101. No, really, you say several times it's a vig or a SK, this is a big deal to me.
2. Seems to be remarkably quick and consistent to say we've got an SK.
3. Needs to explain precisely why Setael was town - "Her responses seem about the same as mine would be" is a real weak reason, actually, considering Setael's decent scum. The constant steam of "craplogic", "non-case", etc around that time makes me wonder. Losing Setael at that point would hurt. I also think there's a contrast between that and how one of her reasons for lynching Farside is "A general tone of agreeing with whatever wagon is going on at the time, a general sense that she's following the votes of other people" which seems at least somewhat comparable to my case on Porochaz. I also think she's too ready to accept SetaelTown based on "Setael still looks like town in this scenario, because she spotted a connection (actively scumhunting) that wasn't all that obvious, but now we know exists whether they are scum or town" which is quite dubious to my mind.
4. Shift from "Farside agreeing with Elmo might make him town" circa 178 to "defended and supported Elmo all through this game so I can see a Farside-Elmo scumteam pretty easily" in 336.
5. Craptastic vote in 383. I thought you were being daft about SK thing, but "I don't mind hammering either" gives me the heebie jeebies.
6. Needs to explain why Farside was scum. I never saw it, personally, evidently others did, but "Elmo has already sort of indicated a willingness to bus her with this" in 350, for example, seems far too certain she's going to flip scum. Bussing at that point makes massive amounts of sense, and that's what it feels like.
7. From 248: "The reason that Elmo was suspicious to a number of people (and has come under some heavy fire from Setael) is because he made a non-case on Setael in the first place." Right, so which bits of the dead scum's "heavy fire" do you agree with?
8. "Either way I guess this isn't much good for Elmo" in 290, specifically the bit about timing my attacks on Setael such that I knew the masons were town.
My best guess is that they bus Farside, NK someone last night, and get me mislynched today for the win. I now think Bookitty is linked with Setael at least as strongly as I am with Farside, if not moreso, hrm.
Yos: In your opinion, would weaponsmith + 2 confirmed innocent masons + doc vs. 3 mafia vs. 1 daykill/nightkill SK be balanced? Or something like that? I find weaponsmith + masons + vig + doc vs. 3 mafia quite unlikely.. (Standard rolefishing disclaimer)
Ninja edit:
Samruc: I've thought about it, and I think it's a good idea; I don't want to post my reasoning at the moment, but we've only got two people who haven't claimed anyway, and I can't think of a situation in which this seriously hurts us.
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Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
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Oh, yeah. If Elmo is scum, then Setael was doing some really serious heavy duty bussing/distancing to save herself. Which I find somewhat possible here; after all, we do know she hammered one of her scum partners, and I could see a scum in her position deciding that Elmo was doomed and that they only way that they had a chance was to bus him. I still think my logic from this post yesterday is correct:chaotic_diablo wrote: If Elmo were scum, then we would have scum Setael shooting for his own defeat. Setael was the one who hammered farside. Now he's shooting to kill another partner? Exactly how does this fit?
I didn't kill Setael.
Yesterday I came to the logical conclusion that, if the masons are telling the truth and there is a 3 man scum group, it must be Setael, Farside, and Elmo. So far, I've been right on 2 out of 3 of them, and none of the other facts I referenced there have changed. I assume you almost certanly are not a third mafia memeber, Chaotic Diablo, with your un-countered claim, unless you're some kind of crazy mafia member with daykilling powers, and then that still wouldn't explain why Setael got daykilled. I also assume Bookitty isn't a third mafia member or I'd think she would have stayed on my wagon yesterday when I was at lynch -1, when a lynch on me would have probably won the mafia the game on the spot. So if there is a 3 member mafia, and since we now pretty much know the masons can't both be lying, that really leaves just Elmo as a possible third scum group member.Yosarian2 wrote:All right, fair enough. If he's lying about having made that kill, then you'll probably get either counterclaimed or vigged. It's also possible he really made the kill but is some kind of SK, but in that case we don't want to lynch him today anyway, because lynching a SK in lynch or lose means we lose.
I suppose that also means I was wrong about some of my assumptions I made when making those lists, but I'm ok with that. I'm actually starting to wonder if I was wrong about there being 3 mafia members; I guess there might have been 2 mafia members but they had a extra daykill and perhaps some other ability to compensate for that, or something like that. But I'm still going to run with the assumption about there being 3 mafia members, because if there are then we're in lynch or lose.
So, let me start over, one more time.
Player list:
Elmo
Setael rp Kate
Porochaz
Bookitty rp Jester
farside22
Samruc
Yosarian2 rp TheStranger
chaotic_diablo
This time, I can use a lot less assumptions; I just don't need as many.
1. Assume there are 3 mafia members
2. Assume neither Bookitty or Chaotic Diablo is mafia
3. Assume that either both (sumaric and Porochez) claimed masons are scum, or neither one is.
So, taking off those that I now think are not mafia:
Elmo
Setael rp Kate
Porochaz
farside22
Samruc
So, if the masons are telling the truth, then the scum group now MUST be (from my point of view):
Elmo
Setael
Farside
If they are lying, then the scum group is:
Porochez
Samruc
+ one other (either Elmo, Setael, or Farside)
At this moment, if the masons are lying, I think their most likely scum partner is Setael; Elmo is possible, and Farside seems quite unlikely.
Honestly, at this moment, I don't really think they are lying; I think the scum group is Elmo, Setael, and Farside. But, just in case I'm wrong about that, I'd rather lynch Setael then one of the others.
vote:Setael
That being said, I think it's quite likely at this point that we're dealing with a 2 man scum group and a SK, especally since it seems to be some kind of wierd day-killing SK or something, and that might be significantly stronger then a regular SK.
I think we can safely assume that if the day-kills were made by a pro-town person, that person would have claimed, right?
So now we're hunting for either a third mafia member (perhaps one with some kind of wierd extra daykilling powers, although I find that unlikely), or a SK, or both. If there is a third mafia member left, I think it's Elmo. If there is a day-SK of some kind, then from my point of view I think it's got to be either Elmo, Chaotic Diablo, or possibly Bookitty (although I doubt that one), with Chaotic Diablo being the most obveous possibility with his earlier dayvig claim.
So, I'm thinking today we should lynch either Elmo or Chaotic Diablo. Any one have any thoughts?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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I agree with the notion of a mass claim. I have not yet claimed. If there is a scum left, there's only one, but I do think that's unlikely.
I think I believe C_D's claim, largely because he didn't take credit for killing scum. A vig would surely take the credit, if they had hit scum. If C_D were the SK, then I think he'd take credit as well. So C_D didn't kill... and scum wouldn't have killed scum.
I'm willing to lynch Elmo as the most likely SK. I'm not willing to lynch C_D at this time. I feel that there is not a four person scum team in a game this size, so I believe the masons are both confirmed town. And I think it very likely we have killed both scum, and have only an SK left.
C_D, are you immune to NKs? I have a theory, but it depends on a couple of things.
I think I believe C_D's claim, largely because he didn't take credit for killing scum. A vig would surely take the credit, if they had hit scum. If C_D were the SK, then I think he'd take credit as well. So C_D didn't kill... and scum wouldn't have killed scum.
I'm willing to lynch Elmo as the most likely SK. I'm not willing to lynch C_D at this time. I feel that there is not a four person scum team in a game this size, so I believe the masons are both confirmed town. And I think it very likely we have killed both scum, and have only an SK left.
C_D, are you immune to NKs? I have a theory, but it depends on a couple of things.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Well, there is one hole in that argument. If CD was a SK who had killed Setael, I would expect him to lie about it at this point, since he earlier claimed:Bookitty wrote: I think I believe C_D's claim, largely because he didn't take credit for killing scum. A vig would surely take the credit, if they had hit scum. If C_D were the SK, then I think he'd take credit as well. So C_D didn't kill... and scum wouldn't have killed scum.
So if he did kill Setael, he would have to either deny it or admit that he lied during his initial role-claim.Chaotic Diablo wrote: I'm a Moon spider or something like that. I'm only able to kill the night after a day kill has occured. It's something about the cycle of the Sun and Moon and how one comes after the other and blah blah blah. I also have another condition in which I can kill during the night, but I'm going to keep it to myself.
One other point; if we do lynch Elmo today, and that dosn't end the game, then if CD was telling the truth about getting a vig kill after a day kill occured, then CD gets a vig kill tonight. That's a lot of ifs, but it's still worth discussing; what should CD do tonight in that scenerio?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
Post 395 is whacked.
Yos: It's just you and Bookitty. Them livin' people:
The masons are confirmed, btw. If they were mafia, then there'd have been four mafia, and we'd have lost on day 2 when there were eight alive. They're obviously not SK.
My current suggestion would simply be to lynch me, tell c_d to vig one of Bookitty or Yos when I flip town, and then lynch c_d tomorrow if that doesn't do it. That's gotta be pretty decent odds whichever way you slice it; only real question is which of the two should go. I assume that if c_d is a SK, he can't daykill tomorrow. Otherwise that would screw it up.
I suppose I find it hard to argue I'm not the best lynch, but I think we should discuss what happens if (when) I turn up town for obvious reasons.
Why in the name of all that's holy am I a likely SK?
Yos: It's just you and Bookitty. Them livin' people:
- Elmo - claimed vanilla
- Porochaz - mason
- Samruc - mason
- chaotic_diablo - claimed viggy thingy
- Bookitty - ?
- Yosarian2 - ?
The masons are confirmed, btw. If they were mafia, then there'd have been four mafia, and we'd have lost on day 2 when there were eight alive. They're obviously not SK.
My current suggestion would simply be to lynch me, tell c_d to vig one of Bookitty or Yos when I flip town, and then lynch c_d tomorrow if that doesn't do it. That's gotta be pretty decent odds whichever way you slice it; only real question is which of the two should go. I assume that if c_d is a SK, he can't daykill tomorrow. Otherwise that would screw it up.
I suppose I find it hard to argue I'm not the best lynch, but I think we should discuss what happens if (when) I turn up town for obvious reasons.
Why in the name of all that's holy am I a likely SK?
Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
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Okay, I have a few questions for C_D:
Are you immune to NKs?
What are the conditions under which you could kill at night, that don't involve a daykill? (I don't see a reason to keep this secret now.)
I'll claim my role, it's hedgewitch, this game's equivalent of vanilla townie.
Yosarian and Elmo are the only two possibilities, in my view, to be the SK-counterpart, so I would recommend if we lynch Elmo today, that C_D kill either Yosarian or myself overnight. That should put us in LYLO, but presumably we'll have enough information at that point to make the masons' decision easy, between the surviving person and C_D.
So in essence I agree with Elmo's plan.
Are you immune to NKs?
What are the conditions under which you could kill at night, that don't involve a daykill? (I don't see a reason to keep this secret now.)
I'll claim my role, it's hedgewitch, this game's equivalent of vanilla townie.
Yosarian and Elmo are the only two possibilities, in my view, to be the SK-counterpart, so I would recommend if we lynch Elmo today, that C_D kill either Yosarian or myself overnight. That should put us in LYLO, but presumably we'll have enough information at that point to make the masons' decision easy, between the surviving person and C_D.
So in essence I agree with Elmo's plan.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."