Micro 768: Geriatric Grey Flag Nightless - Game Over

[Hopkirk]

Lots of new players take a while to stop doing the things CoA was attacked for. I'd expect someone who cares about her alignment to compare it to her other games.

[insanity018]

@Jingle, thanks for explaining more. I am planning to do an ISO of Korts later today and will have a closer look then.

@Anyone who disagreed with my assessment of CoA due to him having played a couple of games before. Why didn't you look at those games?

Unless I've played in those games, I don't generally read other games for meta. I found that I can be biased to seeing what I want to see. I'm also aware that people can try to play to their town meta, especially if they are aware of it.

[Hopkirk]

Someone who's played in like three games isn't going to be trying to play towards their town meta.
The scumreads were for a new player have a typical new player playstyle.
The refutation of that was 'she isn't new' without looking to see whether she seemed new.

[BlackVoid]

Been busy the past couple of days but I will get around to this tonight and tomorrow.

[insanity018]

^

Looking at Luca Blight's ISO does make it seem unlikely that Korts and Luca/BV are scum together. Outside RVS, Luca focuses pretty much exclusively on Korts. The only exceptions are 2 statements to me in 26, responding to a meta question from Jingle 42 and responding to statements from Jingle 34 and RayFrost 43 regarding his play. So, Korts and Luca does seem unlikely - unless they had planned to distance until Luca went V/LA but when Luca returned he just couldn't get back into the game.

Korts ISO

In reading through this, I was surprised that Korts seemed to be fence-sitting on Day 1 more than I had remembered.

59 Korts doesn't get my CultofAthena case. But also says that because RayFrost agrees with my case, there might be something to do with it. This is strange - I don't see why Ray agreeing with my case should have any impact on Korts' read of CoA?

76 Korts' makes a read list ranking everyone from town - scum. Yet, in this reads' list 4/8 players are listed as basically 'don't have a read on them.' It is interesting that Korts also says 'I don't have a reliable read' on CultofAthena. This despite the fact that Korts has commented on not getting my case on CultofAthena and liking some of her posts? There Could be a possible Korts and CoA/Hopkirk connection.

Aristophanes

- Pretty uninvolved so far. Hoping that changes.

CultofAthena

- I don't have a reliable read. Hoping that changes.

RayFrost

- Doesn't seem immersed in the game, 3 posts total. I have mixed feelings about the direction of some of his responses, and he is yet to provide much analysis. Hoping that changes.

Keychain

- Her ISO is also surprisingly sparse with 3 posts. I am not quite convinced by the case against her, but I see the points, and her lack of activity is hindering the progression of the discussion around it, so I'm putting her below Ray.

Korts votes Aristophanes in 161 after finding Jingle's case compelling even though Jingle's attitude is unsettling. This seems consistent with Korts' 100 and 143.

253 Day 2 votes TGP, after quoting my read of the slot, putting TGP at L-2. The vote looks a bit sheeplike but to be fair everyone was talking about lynching TGP.

275 A weak push (and vote) on Hopkirk for lying about his alignments in the games TGP was referred to. Korts instantly revotes TGP after Hopkirk clarifies in 277. I'm trying to look at whether that could be Korts-Hopkirk distancing, knowing that that push wouldn't be able to go anywhere or whether that is a genuine reaction to Korts thinking he had spotted a lie.

[insanity018]

Someone who's played in like three games isn't going to be trying to play towards their town meta.
The scumreads were for a new player have a typical new player playstyle.
The refutation of that was 'she isn't new' without looking to see whether she seemed new.

I don't know why you are focusing so much on CultofAthena's degree of newbieness.

Even if CultofAthena's newer player status explains her fluffiness, it doesn't change the fact that she has been liking people for completely non alignment-indicative things (18, 29), copying or rephrasing other people's questions (in 29 and 30) and doesn't do what she says she will do. She says that she is using her questioning style to form reads (37) but we never see her do any of that.

[Keychain]

I am wondering though - why didn't you vote Hopkirk in Day 2?

Daystart made me unvote. My next vote was on TGP in 293. I was conflicted over whether my Hopkirk read was on the wrong track so I was looking into other options - one of those options was TGP, who became a stronger scumread after his actions as his wagon grew.

[Keychain]

Jingle 361: I would say that Korts/Reck is the only pair I see as so unlikely to be scum together as to completely strike.

From this, in order for KortsScum to be a plausible choice, Hopkirk has to be scum. Thus, Korts is strictly off of my lynch choices list for today. In order for Ins to be scum, Reck has to be scum, which precludes her being a lynch today as well.

I don't understand this point, sorry. Is this you removing your townreads from consideration?

[Hopkirk]

Of potential note: Luca replaced out saying he intended to take a hiatus. He didn't sub out of all games and is in the queue.
Though I townlean on him after skimming some of his other games.

Key/Korts is still scum. Really need to look at Jingle interactions sometime.

Someone who's played in like three games isn't going to be trying to play towards their town meta.
The scumreads were for a new player have a typical new player playstyle.
The refutation of that was 'she isn't new' without looking to see whether she seemed new.

I don't know why you are focusing so much on CultofAthena's degree of newbieness.

Even if CultofAthena's newer player status explains her fluffiness, it doesn't change the fact that she has been liking people for completely non alignment-indicative things (18, 29), copying or rephrasing other people's questions (in 29 and 30) and doesn't do what she says she will do. She says that she is using her questioning style to form reads (37) but we never see her do any of that.

Because literally all of those things are explained by her being a newbie. Liking things for NAI reason- take a look at any player's third/fourth game and show me that doens't happen. Weak logic and not forming reads well is NAI for a newbie.

[Jingle]

From this, in order for KortsScum to be a plausible choice, Hopkirk has to be scum. Thus, Korts is strictly off of my lynch choices list for today. In order for Ins to be scum, Reck has to be scum, which precludes her being a lynch today as well.

I don't understand this point, sorry. Is this you removing your townreads from consideration?

Nope. Pretty close to the opposite in fact. This is me saying that even if I find myself 80% sure that Korts is scum I shouldn't lynch him today because him being scum is predicated on someone else being scum. FMPOV, he pretty much can't be scum without HK also being scum, thus if I find myself sure on Korts scum I should look at Hopkirk.

Could you explain why you think the other scumteams can't be ruled out? Or ask questions about why I think they can be?

Also, glad to see the return of the fairy avvy, Key.

Of potential note: Luca replaced out saying he intended to take a hiatus. He didn't sub out of all games and is in the queue.
Though I townlean on him after skimming some of his other games.

This is dangerously close to ongoing games talk. You're still fine, but don't follow up on this.

More to the point, I take all replacement requests at face value, because to me replacing out disingenuously is an act of cheating and I refuse to believe that people are cheating without proof.

Key/Korts is still scum. Really need to look at Jingle interactions sometime.

Please do. I like it when people talk about me, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Also, could you link a Key or Korts case? Or make one if one isn't already in thread? I'm aware of reasons to be suspicious of both, but can't remember you talking about it very much and would like to compare your reasons to mine.

[Hopkirk]

Luca isn't in any ongoing games.
It's not accusing him of tactical replacement, it's more a meta read of his habits regarding subbing out and considering which games he'd keep. This game seems closer to the low activity scumgame where he left, but it's not very useful since there's no towngames there.

I went through Keychain in 385 and briefly over interactions from Korts' side in 367. Haven't gotten around to Korts fully yet. Want to try and go through you next, so I won't cover that fully for a few days yet. Want to look at interactions with you/them especially.

The 'Korts is only scum when Hopkirk is' logic requires you to be very certain about the scumteams you've crossed out. It seems odd to discount distancing that doesn't lead anywhere. I don't see how you can be that things like Korts/Reck or Korts/Luca weren't theater. I could see Luca attacking his partner then being able to get legitimately into the game afterwards.

[Jingle]

For clarity, are you saying that you disagree with my stance or that you think my stance is unreasonable to take?

Similarly, to Key why is Insanity/CoA a reasonable team?

[insanity018]

Maybe a scumteam of Hopkirk, Korts and either Jingle or Keychain?

Someone who's played in like three games isn't going to be trying to play towards their town meta.
The scumreads were for a new player have a typical new player playstyle.
The refutation of that was 'she isn't new' without looking to see whether she seemed new.

I don't know why you are focusing so much on CultofAthena's degree of newbieness.

Even if CultofAthena's newer player status explains her fluffiness, it doesn't change the fact that she has been liking people for completely non alignment-indicative things (18, 29), copying or rephrasing other people's questions (in 29 and 30) and doesn't do what she says she will do. She says that she is using her questioning style to form reads (37) but we never see her do any of that.

Because literally all of those things are explained by her being a newbie. Liking things for NAI reason- take a look at any player's third/fourth game and show me that doens't happen. Weak logic and not forming reads

well

at all

is NAI for a newbie.

You make it sound like newer players can never be scummy.

What do you think would be alignment-indicative for a newer player then?

[Korts]

Oh shit, I knew I forgot something. I don't have time for a proper post, but I want to share some thoughts while I'm here.

I think I'm forming an OMGUS read on Hopkirk as I read his analysis - the connections he's involving me in are all rubbing me the wrong way, and I'm having some trouble viewing it objectively. I will try to lose the ego when I do a proper reread, and see if my suspicion holds up. It's certainly worth noting that even though I seem to be his top scum pick, he doesn't have much of a case against me.

Jingle and insanity seem pro-town. I will have to look into Keychain. Reck is null. I believe Luca/BV/<insertplayerhere> is probably scum, but I basically only have Luca's early game behavior and BV's prod dodging to go on, which is not very substantial.

Since everyone seems to be picking entire scumteams, my guess right now would be Luca/Hopkirk/[Keychain/Reck].

[Hopkirk]

Reread Jingle. Solid town.

For clarity, are you saying that you disagree with my stance or that you think my stance is unreasonable to take?

Similarly, to Key why is Insanity/CoA a reasonable team?

I think that calling Korts/Luca definitely not a scumteam means you're too confident scum won't even try and bus/distance early game.

[Hopkirk]

Although considering teams only actually leaves me with two plausible options: Korts/Key/BV and Reck/Key/BV. The second one could definitely be right here. I need to look at Reckoner/Korts isos fully.

[Hopkirk]

Actually @Jingle: Nevermind Korts/BV. I'm leaning strongly towards Reckoner/BV/Keychain.

[Hopkirk]

Maybe a scumteam of Hopkirk, Korts and either Jingle or Keychain?

Someone who's played in like three games isn't going to be trying to play towards their town meta.
The scumreads were for a new player have a typical new player playstyle.
The refutation of that was 'she isn't new' without looking to see whether she seemed new.

I don't know why you are focusing so much on CultofAthena's degree of newbieness.

Even if CultofAthena's newer player status explains her fluffiness, it doesn't change the fact that she has been liking people for completely non alignment-indicative things (18, 29), copying or rephrasing other people's questions (in 29 and 30) and doesn't do what she says she will do. She says that she is using her questioning style to form reads (37) but we never see her do any of that.

Because literally all of those things are explained by her being a newbie. Liking things for NAI reason- take a look at any player's third/fourth game and show me that doens't happen. Weak logic and not forming reads

well

at all

is NAI for a newbie.

You make it sound like newer players can never be scummy.

What do you think would be alignment-indicative for a newer player then?

I'm not saying new players can't be scum, I'm saying new players using bad logic and not understanding theory isn't AI. Other stuff is, like motivation, interactions, consistency, how they're approaching the game etc.

Oh shit, I knew I forgot something. I don't have time for a proper post, but I want to share some thoughts while I'm here.

I think I'm forming an OMGUS read on Hopkirk as I read his analysis - the connections he's involving me in are all rubbing me the wrong way, and I'm having some trouble viewing it objectively. I will try to lose the ego when I do a proper reread, and see if my suspicion holds up. It's certainly worth noting that even though I seem to be his top scum pick, he doesn't have much of a case against me.

Jingle and insanity seem pro-town. I will have to look into Keychain. Reck is null. I believe Luca/BV/<insertplayerhere> is probably scum, but I basically only have Luca's early game behavior and BV's prod dodging to go on, which is not very substantial.

Since everyone seems to be picking entire scumteams, my guess right now would be Luca/Hopkirk/[Keychain/Reck].

I kind of had you as default scum due to overlooking the Reck/Key/BV possibility- which now seems more likely.
I'd been putting off the isos. Now that I've actually read them, my thoughts have changed.

[xRECKONERx]

I really need to get my head back into this.

[xRECKONERx]

Part of me hopes we mislynch so i can just stop paying attention lel

[xRECKONERx]

Tempted to just vote BlackVoid here. There's fuckin' nothing there. If scum take the win over someone being a lurksack, so be it.

That, or I'm still very much on board with Jingle.

insanity is just like so fucking town but I can't help but talk myself in circles like "you're bad at this game, you fuck, if you think she's town she's probably scum"

[Hopkirk]

I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on Keychain Reckoner.

Only 6 hours until the next BV prod/replacement is due.

[Jingle]

Tempted to just vote BlackVoid here. There's fuckin' nothing there. If scum take the win over someone being a lurksack, so be it.

Please don't. There's enough to read around him and this is white flag. You don't HAVE to sort everyone. I'd love to hear more about the scumread on me though.

@Hopkirk- Talk to me about the change in your read on Korts and how you've arrived at Reck/BV/Key.

@BlackVoid- Seriously?

@Keychain- Please answer my questions in 384/386.

@insanity018- Talk to me about me. I'd like to resolve this read if possible, so that we can move on.

[Hopkirk]

Why RBK: Rereading you and I was comfortable to eliminate you/Insanity. Assuming Reck/Korts aren't scum together leaves two scumteams. BV/Key are in every likely scumteam. Therefore, changing from Korts to Reck makes that the scumteam.

Why Reckoner>Korts

Korts side:
- Interactions with Luca could come from either alignment, but are more likely to come from town given Luca is scum.
- I like his vote on me in 275. Shows he’s actually looking at things rather than going for the mislynch purely for the mislynch (like Keychain).
- Reads seem reasonable consistent, if not fully developed on some slots.
- Interactions with BV/Keychain are better than Reckoner’s.
- A lot of his stuff is pretty nullish, but it’s not scummy-null like I thought.

Reckoner side:
- Dislike 55 as I have all game. Keychain/Korts interactions are especially bad given he puts them as null/light scum with no real follow up. Also still dislike the way he makes the Jingles scumread. The CoA scumread/Insanity townread without pushing it feels like he’s waiting/opportunistic for whatever wagon happens. Fits with his general sitting on the sidelines. This is reinforced by him not trying to interact with me or to push me.
- Flip to Ari is badly justified. Doesn’t consider Ari relative to Jingle- who he was voting just beforehand.
- Reads feel like they’re strategic/flexible rather than consistent. Eg, votes Korts in 281 for a weak attack on me- despite Reckoner seeming to have a scumread on me there. I don’t understand where his Jingle read went either.
- Claims in 289 he didn’t realize Ray had been replaced by TGP when he voted Ray in 233. Weird given he says in 287 that Ray didn’t do a lot, and Reck seems to have scumreads. Not a major point, but seems inconsistent/like the above. Don’t like the way he interacted with TGP in this exchange, as I mentioned at the time.
- 338/9- Says scum within 4 (Korts/Insanity/him/me)- very suspicious Key/BV are not in this pile. Comes out with BV/Key in the ‘could be scum but lets lynch other people first’ position. 339 hasn’t had the promised follow up after 6 days which fits with the other two scum who aren’t posting substance and waiting to see what happens.

I kind of had Reckoner as scum at the day start then forgot about him for some reason when I agreed Korts/Reckoner were unlikely to be together. I hadn’t actually reisod Korts or Reckoner properly until now. I think I was getting some of Korts/Reckoner mixed up with one another actually.

[Hopkirk]

@Lord Gurgi: 'The definition of a 24 hour period must be provided by the moderator.' Is in the rules. I'm coming close to my daily limit, so could you define what counts as a 24hour period? Is it reset at a certain time each day (if so when), or based on posts we make?