Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:18 am

Post by teacher »

In post 372, Nauci wrote:Idk about mass claiming.

Maybe tracker/not tracker claims, and/or hypothetical claims after? I have to think on this.
To be clear, I am NOT seeking mass-claiming, but staggered claiming to time counterclaims.

First (Thur-Friday) Doctor(s) claim. If cc - both identify saves, lynch among. If no cc, move on. If no doc claim at all, gain info that general suspect list likely off.

Second (Sat-Sun), if doctor identified, other pr claim. If cc - Doctor then ID save (lock-town), and lynch among ccs (unless one is saved by dr. Then lynch other). If no cc by end of sunday - 2 towns confirmed. 3 if doctor didnt save other pr. Known!town block grinds down mafia.

Again, only a theory. But I think it works.
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:19 am

Post by teacher »

VOTE: unvote. Not claiming or not claiming any position until we confirm the underlying theory - today's discussion. I take it Not Known agrees with it. Anyone else?
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:20 am

Post by teacher »

EBWOP. Not claiming or disclaiming any position until we confirm the underlying theory - today's discussion.

Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:22 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

In post 377, teacher wrote:Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?
I see one giant hole in it... there are two roles who can stop a kill, not just one.
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:23 am

Post by teacher »

In post 378, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 377, teacher wrote:Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?
I see one giant hole in it... there are two roles who can stop a kill, not just one.
Point taken. Let me see how it holds up assuming a jailkeeper and not a doctor.
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 373, Not Known 15 wrote:I think we should all claim Doctor or Not a Doctor first.
Am I crazy or is this the one thing we DON'T want to do?

We want a conftown that can be protected tonight and make it into day 3. Doctor claiming would just mean the doctor dies tonight, unless it's doctor/jk?
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 375, teacher wrote:
In post 372, Nauci wrote:Idk about mass claiming.

Maybe tracker/not tracker claims, and/or hypothetical claims after? I have to think on this.
To be clear, I am NOT seeking mass-claiming, but staggered claiming to time counterclaims.

First (Thur-Friday) Doctor(s) claim. If cc - both identify saves, lynch among. If no cc, move on. If no doc claim at all, gain info that general suspect list likely off.

Second (Sat-Sun), if doctor identified, other pr claim. If cc - Doctor then ID save (lock-town), and lynch among ccs (unless one is saved by dr. Then lynch other). If no cc by end of sunday - 2 towns confirmed. 3 if doctor didnt save other pr. Known!town block grinds down mafia.

Again, only a theory. But I think it works.
Only skimmed your post and was reacting to NK15's.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:28 am

Post by Nauci »

The Tracker claim strat worked because in 2/3 tracker setups, there's a protector (doctor/jk) so that it would be a conftown that definitely lived another day.

Now that we know there's almost definitely a protection role, I see no reason not to do THAT.

Like the possible combinations are

Town Jailkeeper and Town Doctor, Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker, Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Town Cop and Town Doctor, Town Neopolitan and Town Doctor, Town Tracker and Town Doctor

and the not-doctor-not-jk roles can safely claim, while the protection roles are the ones that should NOT.
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:30 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

In post 382, Nauci wrote:The Tracker claim strat worked because in 2/3 tracker setups, there's a protector (doctor/jk) so that it would be a conftown that definitely lived another day.

Now that we know there's almost definitely a protection role, I see no reason not to do THAT.

Like the possible combinations are

Town Jailkeeper and Town Doctor, Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker, Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Town Cop and Town Doctor, Town Neopolitan and Town Doctor, Town Tracker and Town Doctor

and the not-doctor-not-jk roles can safely claim, while the protection roles are the ones that should NOT.
Yeah but if we have a JK how likely is it that the person jailkept was attacked... or were they the attacker??
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:35 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

At this point a massclaim, with three stages should be in order.
First stage: Everyone claims VT or Not VT.
Second stage: The Not VT claims claim their roles.
Third stage: The powerroles tell us their targets.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:36 am

Post by Flicker »

A mass claim seems like both a bad idea, and not necessary. The town is one more up than expected today, so there's a little more wiggle room for another possible mislynch.

I'm not entirely opposed to a doctor claim, but a jailkeeper claim doesn't make sense (could have jailkept a townie or scum to get no night kill). If we do ask for a claim, I think it should be just one PR, though.

@Thor - Would you still argue for a tracker claim today?

PEdit: The way Nauci laid it out, a tracker claim seems weaker now than it would have with a successful, non-tracker night kill.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:37 am

Post by teacher »

So I think the theory holds up whether we have a doctor or jailkeeper:
(a) Doctor explained in and
(b) Jailkeeper works much the same way:

First, Jailkeepers claim Thur-Friday WITHOUT identifying action. If cc - identify action for info. (if both claim the other, no more info; if one claims a third, mafia third claim could be contradicted if pr, town third claim locks a town slot or reveals 2d mafia) Regardless, lynch among claimants for guaranteed 4:1 with action by alternative power role. If no cc, then confirmed town slot WITHOUT identifying action.

Second, Sat-Sun, if no jailkeeper cc, then other power role claim. If cc - identify action and result for info. At this point, jailkeeper can absolutely identify mafia. IF it is one of the claimants, the claimed result will be wrong. IF it is not one of the claimants, he almost certainly held mafia.

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both). If no claim at all, we know our suspect list is off. IF claims, resolve as per above.

Who agrees or disagrees?
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:38 am

Post by Oxy »

Okay. Good job whoever stopped the kill.

Thor I'm glad we have an IC still around.
@Could you please walk us through your IC opinion on mass claiming vs other strategies for this particular situation? Could you also talk about lynching vs no lynching after a no kill? <3

@teacher my only issues with your plan are a) it sounds like it would take a lot more time than a simple mass claim strat, and I'm not sure how many days of this D2 we want to waste on the claiming process, and b) I'm not 100% that mass claim is correct in a world where we are in column c of the setup. I want to hear from Thor first.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:39 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

In post 386, teacher wrote:So I think the theory holds up whether we have a doctor or jailkeeper:
(a) Doctor explained in and
(b) Jailkeeper works much the same way:

First, Jailkeepers claim Thur-Friday WITHOUT identifying action. If cc - identify action for info. (if both claim the other, no more info; if one claims a third, mafia third claim could be contradicted if pr, town third claim locks a town slot or reveals 2d mafia) Regardless, lynch among claimants for guaranteed 4:1 with action by alternative power role. If no cc, then confirmed town slot WITHOUT identifying action.

Second, Sat-Sun, if no jailkeeper cc, then other power role claim. If cc - identify action and result for info. At this point, jailkeeper can absolutely identify mafia. IF it is one of the claimants, the claimed result will be wrong. IF it is not one of the claimants, he almost certainly held mafia.

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both). If no claim at all, we know our suspect list is off. IF claims, resolve as per above.

Who agrees or disagrees?
I agree....

I claim Jailkeeper.
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:41 am

Post by teacher »

Nauci - Im more than open to being wrong on my theory, but I think this is an exceptional situation where the protective role identifying in the progression stated locks the game. A tracker first claim (and likely counterclaim) does not provide the lock. Im serious here, please disprove the line set forth in - I dont see it, but I am certainly biased.
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 365, Meji Fan wrote:For those thinking Meji is scum because James was town, note I leaned James was town back in post 152 which was before James hot really popular
noted. Please provide reads and reasons on everyone you have a read on (should probably be everyone at this point).
Also,
In post 173, Irrelephant11 wrote:Then, after you've made that post, can you separately clarify for me: is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?
I am tentatively going to start today by assuming a town Teacher. I'll continue to evaluate, but I realized that part of my scum read on him was "he keeps doing things to look towny" which, who knows, could be because he's towny. Still lots I don't like from yesterday, but we'll come back to that.

I don't even know what to do about claiming or not claiming. Is IC bound to be honest about this? Or would it be too influenced by his alignment?

Also does mafia have the option skip a nightkill? The sample role PMs make it seem like they have to kill, which is also my experience with mafia IRL

Seems like scum hunting will end up being heavily influenced by whether or not we start claiming roles...

pedit: I've tried to post this like
three
five times and been interrupted by new posts, which I read, then try to post, etc...

pedit2: that escalated quickly.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:43 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

Ok. I claimed Jailkeeper.
Next... everyone says "I CC" or "I don't CC"
Tracker or Doctor are NOT counterclaims.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:43 am

Post by teacher »

@notknown, I appreciate your agreement, but would have preferred to have the theory validated.

@board - please dont CC not known. He could be pr protective hunting now. Validate the theory first. IF it holds up today, CC (if applicable) tomorrow.

PEDIT: Elephant - mafia can pass on the night. But if they did, it signifies the suspect list is way off.
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:43 am

Post by teacher »

In post 391, Not Known 15 wrote:Ok. I claimed Jailkeeper.
Next... everyone says "I CC" or "I don't CC"
Tracker or Doctor are NOT counterclaims.
Do not do this until theory validated.
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Oxy »

we already have a claim, teacher. If you have a pr that directly contradicts NK being a jailkeeper, claim it or forever hold your peace. I think everyone else should stfu until people do that or say they arent claiming.
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Oxy »

obviously, I am not cc'ing the JK
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:49 am

Post by teacher »

In post 394, Oxy wrote:we already have a claim, teacher. If you have a pr that directly contradicts NK being a jailkeeper, claim it or forever hold your peace. I think everyone else should stfu until people do that or say they arent claiming.
We do, and it works with my theory. But Im still not sure my theory works. If my theory doesnt work, then this could be pr hunting by a common suspect. So I would appreciate you saying whether my theory is valid or not in your opinion. I do not claim or disclaim any role right now.
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:50 am

Post by Flicker »

In post 386, teacher wrote:Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both).
Wrong - A2 has both.

I don't know what to make of NK15's claim - both the content, or how fast he did it. Thoughts, anyone?

PEdit: I don't see what the utility of a mass "I don't counterclaim" is. I won't be doing it until someone convinces me it's worthwhile.

PEdit2: I also don't see that "I don't counterclaim" is a necessary statement; if one doesn't say anything one way or the other, isn't that also just an "I don't counterclaim?"

(I agree with Irrelephant that the current speed and content of the game is very hard to keep up with right now. :eek: )
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:51 am

Post by teacher »

For example, I just noticed a possibility that i had not considered, and now need to play out. What if a Jailkeeper claim (we have one) is met by a doctor cc. Have to play that out....Will post when analyzed.
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:52 am

Post by teacher »

Flicker has another correct point I also need to game.....
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