Micro 941 | Brass and Shrapnel | Mafia PT

[Iconeum]

I van read and post tomorrow

Saw Flip

Dk and pp no no

Maybe kilga

[Datisi]

i lowkey want to kill PP for really really dumbass reasons (he Fuccing Scares me and as a newbie mod this just feels Awkward) even tho i know we shouldn't (even tho his reads outside koba might be not bad which is also a problem)

also thinking back i think i heavily misplayed EoD1 since if we flip now my apathy may be seen as "the second scum wasn't in danger" which is bad but oops

kilga is a decent "universally townread" shot

tho i'm not sure which one of us should be doing the kill, since hoctac is alive and scum paranoia is a thing

i need to reread hmmm

[Datisi]

ok this is what my scumbuddy did in my first scumgame so let's do Process of Elimination

HoldenGolden
Tuxedo Mask
PenguinPower
enomis
ceejayvinoya
Kilgamayan
Hoctac
DkKoba
Night 3 Roses

scum - {N3R, Tux Tux}
ded - {enomis}
ico's no no - {koba, PP}

leftovers - {hoctac, ceejay, holden, kilga}

i think hoctac and ceejay are somewhat likely to eat a vig
holden and kilga are unlikely to eat a vig imo

i think we either yolo lolkill in hoctac/ceejay and risk doublekilling with a vig
or we kill the UTRs in kilga and holden
ye i think one of kilga/holden
i'll reread tho
sometime
soon(tm)

[Datisi]

i'm lazy and i just lost another town game why is mafia so difficult

anyway what're your thoughts on our shot tux?

also i still deadass think koba is ss/bomb

[Tuxedo Mask]

Holden I think is the best target, and I'd rather protect you guys. However, Holden and Koba suddenly dropping their push on me still feels disingenuous, and makes me nervous about a shot. Though I'd still rather you shoot and I protect because you guys living is better for the team than me living.

[Datisi]

this post is probably me talking about mechanics because i'm too fucking lazy to reread the game right now and also i want ico to come in here and tell me what to do

setup (a) - 25% chance of 3 Vigs (50% Blank Vig) and 4 town roles (50/50% Bomb or Supersaint)
setup (b) - 50% chance of 4 Vigs (50% Blank Vig) and 3 town roles (50/50% Bomb or Supersaint)
setup (c) - 25% chance of 5 Vigs (50% Blank Vig) and 2 town roles (50/50% Bomb or Supersaint)

so one town vig has flipped, assuming tomorrow is massclaim time

there's 6 town alive currently
(a) 25% - 2vig 4bss
(b) 50% - 3vig 3bss
(c) 25% - 4vig 2bss

hmm this is pretty difficult without seeing what has flipped at daybreak - without the flipped vigi a "safer" claim is vigilante but considering one town vig has flipped then claiming vig or non-vig is kinda symmetric right now

problem being of course we have no bloody clue in which setup we are, so at the "current" state our probably best bet is claiming 1vig 1 nonvig
but the state changes in the morning yay

ok i'm gonna write out a "cheatsheet" hopefully it's gonna be understandable - there's three possible scenarios:
note: once someone flips (like enomis flipped vig), add them to the "claimed" - like currently we have 1 "claimed" vig (because ye they're ded)

scenario 1

(total claims 5vig 4nonvig)
> we nail the fakeclaims completely. that meaning, if we're in (a), we both claim vig, in (b) we claim 1vig 1nonvig, in (c) we both claim nonvig (so that the total amount of claims is always 5vig 4nonvig). town wouldn't be able to conclude jack shit (there's gonna be a certain percentage of us more likely being in this or that setup but not good enough for town to actually be able to confidently draw conclusions)

scenario 2

(total claims either 6vig 3nonvig or 4vig 5nonvig)
> we're ~average~. in (a) we claim 1vig 1nonvig, in (b) we claim the same group (either both vig or both nonvig), in (c) we claim 1vig 1nonvig - then one group has 1-2 scum in it, and the other has 0-1 scum in it. this is not too bad, the only problem is IF we're in (a) or (c) and we're split 1-1, then if the one scum that's in the "smaller" group flips, it would conftown whoever else is in the same claimed group. now not likely, since then it's optimal for town to lynch in the bigger claimed group, but it's something to keep in mind.

scenario 3

(total claims either 7vig 2nonvig or 3vig 6nonvig)
> we fuck up. in (a) we both claim nonvig, in (c) we both claim vig. (note that it's not possible to completely fuck up if we're in (b)). it would instantly conftown everyone in the smaller group.

of course this is all assuming we both live through the night, if there's only one scum alive then they fuck up by claming nonvig in (a) or vig in (c). (meaning they should aim to claim vig in (a) and nonvig in (c) (either in (b)) but obviously that's a bit harder to do when we don't know the setup)

hmmm claim table?

	both claim vig	claim 1vig / 1nonvig	both claim nonvig
setup (a)	nailed the fakeclaims (1)	average (2)	fuck up (3)
setup (b)	average (2)	nailed the fakeclaims (1)	average (2)
setup (c)	fuck up (3)	average (2)	nailed the fakeclaims (1)

by this the "optimal" strategy would be to claim 1vig/1nonvig, however, if we can get one of our slots to go last in masclaim that would be ideal lmao - tho i doubt it

[Tuxedo Mask]

Yeah, so basically no matter what 1 vig and 1nonvig is optimal. I think your slot is most likely to be one of the two of us to last claim. But I wouldn't aim for it. Would you like to claim vig or no vig?

[Datisi]

yeah, unless we're going last and we can deduce the whole setuo, vig/nonvig is probably optimal. for now. if i'm not missing anything. i don't think i am but i am p tired right now so.

i remember a few day ago thinking of "the scum more likely to endgame (the one in the better position) should claim nonvig", for reasons i'm not too sure myself... i think something to do with bombs being maybe less likely to get lynched? i don't really remember what i was going for right now... i'll sleep on it again.

arguably it's more important that our claims are believeable though. since we're shooting in holden/kilga, i don't think it makes sense for either of us to claim that as our "vig kill". however, i don't think anyone is scumreading those slots, which means nobody will shoot them, which means nobody will claim those shots (so they'll be obvious scumshots). and let's say there is one more kill (say idk ceejay), and only one vig claims to have shot ceejay... then we're in trouble because that vig is now confirmed town full vigilante. i think it would be advantageous to *also* claim a vig shot on ceejay then, since then whoever is the real vig isn't actually confirmed town

so i'm not married to the idea which one of us should claim vig or not, like depending on who's dead it might be a good idea for the one who'll be claiming vig to claim that kill - then we could however run into the opposite problem, if too many people claim the shot on the same person, town could conclude someone there is likely scum, but the question is will they...

havng typed this out, it's not 100% given the sole vig claim with an additional death is confirmed town if our kill is a vigilante, since the dead vigilante also could've shot the other kill

that's the joy of this setup holy hell

oh, additional thing, if we're forced to claim between bomb and supersaint, i think we always claim bomb. a problem with claiing supersain if we're the only one claim left is the supersaint claim is the last scum alive, at one point the optimal startegy is to have the "superaint" self-vote and force someone ele to hammer them, which would obviously be Not Good

[Tuxedo Mask]

is blank vig versus real vig randomized as roll handouts or randomized on shot? I assume on the handout. Would it make sense to claim a shot on a living player we find suspicious, whoever of us wants to claim vig?

[Datisi]

blank vs full is randomized on handout, yeah. it would make sense, since in that scenario you wouldn't "know" if they're alive becaue you're blank or because they're scum that got healed. who do you think you'd try to vig here as a town vigilante?

i'm just worried if there's a death that's obviously a vig shot and only one vigilante claims it, then they're confirmed town which is kinda problematic you feel

also my "s" key wasn't working so i ripped it out and i wasn't able to put it back until i realised i was trying to put it upside down oops

[Tuxedo Mask]

I actually don't know who town me would shoot? Might be a bit gun shy with my current reads. Maybe Koba for the hammer and threat? It seems LAMIST, but would scum really gamble a Saint that hard? I'm speculating when I already know the answer.

Who would you guys shoot?

[Datisi]

"ico i didn't read shit you're in charge of our shot my dude".

uhhh i know i'm supposed to be efforting here and stuff but it's been a long day that i've woken up to surprisingly early so i will go pass out soon and reread game tomorrow and hopefully get some insight from our favorite dragon by that time (read: i will probably deadass sheep him on whatever he decides because nightkill decisions have always been a weak point of my scumgame (implying there's a strong point haha good one dats))

[Tuxedo Mask]

Fair enough.

[Iconeum]

Not much time yet but

Tux kills and we protect
I think we are fine and ders tux is on the vig list

Pp kilga holden shortlist of nk

Should have more in a couple hours

[Datisi]

ok ico we got a bit time, i'll try to reread in the meantime

PP back on the list?

[Tuxedo Mask]

Okay, I'll take the shot. I'm good with any of those targets.

[Iconeum]

i just talked it over with dats

we feel that either of kilga or holden are our top shots here

hoctac being intended mislynch on D2 with kilga probably voting there

PP and DK live to have a glorious TvT fight

i don't think we are gonna be a vig target, but if we are then so be it
just feel like the Tux had a slightly scummier D1 and is on more radars

SO we kill holden (which also frames hoctac a bit), and Rose meme protects Tux imo

[Iconeum]

Tux slays Holden

Roses protects the Tux

[Iconeum]

IF DK is gonna be the next lynch, neither of us want to hammer that

[Tuxedo Mask]

Sounds good. Inb4 I get vigged, and shoot a bomb, and you get vigged too. Just ending the game immediately.

[Datisi]

can confirm this conversation did just happen

writing it out (so i can laugh at myself if it turns out to be the case) the only person i can really see vigging us is hoctac, while you were slightly scummier throughout day 1 and we gotta make a call so

i will reread the game at some point before sod2 i swear

pedit: if that happens then town deserves to win so kekw

[Tuxedo Mask]

So besides night actions, do you guys have a gamean for tomorrow after catching up?

[GeorgeBailey]

Tux slays Holden

Roses protects the Tux

Actions recieved

[Datisi]

No daystart yet?

And afaik, ico wants to push hoctac, told me to leave that to him
I might do a "catchup" or something in the meantime, we'll see

[Datisi]

BOIIIIIIIII

MY DUDEEEEEEEE