976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[Gypyx]

hello, i just studied for 7 hours straight and my brain is completely dead, but i'll probably not be able to post again before deadline so catching up

My limpool for today contains probably plus / Thomas (need re-reading), i'd still like Akarin but it's not happening

[NicCage]

I cannot believe Dunn is town, he’s the strongest read I have.
I want to see his flip and find out what’s really going on. If he is scum, we might have this game solved.
I don’t townread Plus, but I don’t really have any sense that they’re scum. The weight for me is definitively on Dunn’s side of the scale.

I’m going to add my vote back on the wagon VOTE: Dunnstral

[NicCage]

actually, UNVOTE:
dunnstral is town actually maybe?

VOTE: plus can we do this? what do people think of this?

The Empress

Give me a narrative of Dunn’s behavior that points to him being town

[Gypyx]

sorry

niccage has mod confirmed info that you're 90% likely to be town and 10% to be scum

and he put you at l-1? what?

intent to hammer

Are you intent to hammering someone who you are pushing in the same post or am I misundersteanding?

[SKYEscrapers]

plus really feels town to me

nic's logic just feels off

what's your limpool today tris?

my problem is i'm starting to cross everyone off the list.

i'm going off of ari for mastina
akarin is a strong townread
i've flipped around on gypyx
and now, i've come around on doubtingthomas as well
i'm feeling better about you now
i just read dunn's iso, and it's actually town

fuck, i guess i don't actually have a reason to townread nic. the argument about why would he make that claim doesn't actually make sense. scum come up with fake-claims all the time. and i don't see why that's one scum wouldn't do.

that leaves nic and plus i guess.

fine, VOTE: nic i guess this can be from ari too. i might as well do the one that intersects with my hydra partner.

although, if akarin can show up and tell me why nic is town, i would love that.

no, actually i'm staying on VOTE: plus. i need to think more about nic before i would vote him.

The Empress

[Gypyx]

also to be honest, the idea of a hood in that kind of setup is weird, like, i've read the flavor phrases, and i don't see anything that sticks to that, 3rd party is a reasonable possibility imo

[Gypyx]

@SKYE why keep your nic vote in your post if you're just changing it anyways?

[NicCage]

Well don’t think about it for why I wouldn’t do it.
Why would I do it? What’s good about it? What advantage would I have been seeking each step of the way?

[SKYEscrapers]

actually, UNVOTE:
dunnstral is town actually maybe?

VOTE: plus can we do this? what do people think of this?

The Empress

Give me a narrative of Dunn’s behavior that points to him being town

while he didn't seem to at first, he does have reads now, and i think i think they are flowing in a way that is town-thought. i especially like 336. shows signs of thinking about the game and reconsidering where scum had no reason to.

[SKYEscrapers]

@SKYE why keep your nic vote in your post if you're just changing it anyways?

because i originally typed that, and i wanted to leave it there

The Empress

[SKYEscrapers]

I'm not lying... looking back nic said something about it but I never grasped what he was talking about

i think this is true

The Empress

[NicCage]

And look let me incentivize you by giving you this:
I breadcrummed because I think there’s a strong possibility I’m in danger tomorrow. Mastina’s pairing of Dunn and I seems too prescient to me, and I think I’m being set up.
So there’s the town-motivated explanation of my behavior, and the scumteam-motivated behavior wrapped up in a single pressure point. Because if Dunn and I are scum together, then I am bussing him and setting up to go after Mastina.

And that’s exactly the argument I fear I’m up against tomorrow, should Dunn flip scum.
The best thing to do is flip him and find out what possible world we are living in and deal with it from there. You can come after me tomorrow.

[NicCage]

I'm not lying... looking back nic said something about it but I never grasped what he was talking about

i think this is true

The Empress

Paraphrase of the conversation:
We say hi
Nic: Asks what the chance is that we can trust each other
Dunn: Says he thinks I have a higher-than-average chance of being scum atm
Nic: Explains that my role says that my neighbor has a 10% chance of being scum. Speculates that we must have different roles. Asks why not express his scumread in the main thread.
Dunn: Asks for an explanation of my role info. Says he wants something from me in the main thread.
Dunn: Says his role doesn't mentioned anything about probability
Nic: Explains about the dice roll, about 90% chance of being town, and my curiosity to see if we shared that feature of our roles.
Dunn: Expresses disbelief at my role info, given that it isn't standard and thinks that random role distribution is strange
Nic: Reminds Dunn that this game doesn't have to have a standard setup
Dunn: Does the math on probability for other players to be scum without my info (25%, 2/8) . Says that I ought to see other players as 2.5 times more likely to be scum as him.
Nic: Disagrees given the possibility of the alternative setup with non-town factions
Dunn: Says stuff like that only happens in special games. Speculates that third parties are unlikely in micro games, but if they are there it would only be 1
Nic: Tells Dunn to read the setup post, points out the list of sentences which inspired the roles.

He doesn't really talk to me much after that, this is our most substantial interaction. I know this isn't proof to you, but I cannot believe that he didn't understand. He disbelieved me initially about each individual thing, but he figured it all out.

[NicCage]

Wish I had bolded or underlined the names to be honest with you

[TheGoldenParadox]

@SKYE why keep your nic vote in your post if you're just changing it anyways?

because i originally typed that, and i wanted to leave it there

The Empress

this makes me feel better on skye town tbh, it's an interesting move i don't really see scum making

[NicCage]

If I have to die, I want everyone to know what I know.

Remainder of PT paraphrase:

Nic:

Asks about Thomas' meta, because Thomas mentioned they played together. Expresses some reservation about the aggression in Thomas' push on Gypyx, but says pressure on Gypyx is warranted. Speculates that third parties would be more elimination-happy. Expresses willingness to answer Dunn's previous questions directly, in main thread or PT. Suggests that Dunn pressuring me in public would be welcome, because it will help elicit reactions from other players.

Nic:

Quotes mastina's original post about me and Dunn being s/s, jokes to be cautious

Dunn:

Doesn't know about Thomas' meta, doesn't have an opinion on his posts

Dunn:

Says he understands my initial posts as a way to begin questioning people

Nic:

Asks if he is laying low on purpose

Dunn:

Says no

Nic:

Asks if he has been busy

Dunn:

Says a bit, but that he usually doesn't talk in pts. Asks if there was a specific discussion I had in mind

Nic:

Says I was referring to the public thread, where he has been very quiet. Notes that he has never voted. Wonders if he has a reason for lying low

Nic:

Winks and says Dunn is in trouble

Nic:

Asks if Dunn were to take my perspective, would he see himself as a town player

Nic:

Threatens Dunn to go to the main thread and suggest that he has some kind of third party limitation on his ability to vote

Dunn:

Says I should think he is town because of my informed role. Says people think we're a team because we share a thread

Dunn:

Says he has no role restriction on voting

Nic:

Says that I am not concerned about being read as a team. Says he is acting suspicious.

Nic:

Notes that he is the likely elimination. Asks if he can get out of it. Asks if there is anything he wants to pass on if he does flip town.

That's everything. This post starts on the 30th and ends on the 6th.

[SKYEscrapers]

Nic: Tells Dunn to read the setup post, points out the list of sentences which inspired the roles.

are you sure this couldn't have been misunderstood?

The Empress

[NicCage]

Yes, right before that post I explained what it meant, 4 town and 5 third party. It's easy to understand, he didn't even have to go to the setup post like I suggested him to.

[Gypyx]

Yeah i think i'll VOTE: PlusJOYED

Anyone wanna discuss anything before i fall asleep?

[SKYEscrapers]

Yes, right before that post I explained what it meant, 4 town and 5 third party. It's easy to understand, he didn't even have to go to the setup post like I suggested him to.

but, did he know that you were referring to the setup post? Or could he have thought that you were just speculating on the possibility of a four 3rd party game.

[NicCage]

I'm serious about the town-narrative. Think it through. Maybe he's a townie who is busy and makes mistakes. You've got to explain each and every mistake strung together, not separately. Can you really explain away every bad move he's made with that character? The lack of posting in both main thread and PT? Being active in other games? Refusing to change even the tiniest amount under pressure? Popping up at the last minute to mount a terrible defense? Claiming my role for me, but not his own? Remember I'm a townread of his.

The best explanation I can come up with is the shift in play around the 30th-31st, and the connection to Mastina. I wonder why Dunn popped up after I mentioned that? Why did he vote Mastina of all people to try to start a counterwagon?
Two explanations: I am scum and we planned it, or Mastina is scum and Dunn is trying to spread a little WIFOM since I got wise a little early.

Or Dunn is third party and I am dumb and making a mess of things. Always a possibility.

Don't let him live.

[NicCage]

Yes, right before that post I explained what it meant, 4 town and 5 third party. It's easy to understand, he didn't even have to go to the setup post like I suggested him to.

but, did he know that you were referring to the setup post? Or could he have thought that you were just speculating on the possibility of a four 3rd party game.

Yes, I told him to go look at the mod's post. I have to paraphrase here, but it was written clearly.

[SKYEscrapers]

I'm serious about the town-narrative. Think it through. Maybe he's a townie who is busy and makes mistakes. You've got to explain each and every mistake strung together, not separately. Can you really explain away every bad move he's made with that character? The lack of posting in both main thread and PT?

something dunnstral does

Refusing to change even the tiniest amount under pressure?

why is this a mistake?

The Empress

[mastina]

Cause it’s mentioned in the setup, either 2 scum and 7 town, or 4 town and 5 non-town, 2 of which share a wincon

Well this changes things.

If the game's two scum and seven town, then obviously there's a maximum of one nontown in Nic/Dunn since schadd_ wouldn't make a scum-scum neighborhood and I doubt they're lying about the existence of one.

But if the game's four town and 5 nontown, then I'd expect both of them to be nontown here, presumably with players like DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers filling in the gaps (because 5 nontown allows for scum to legitimately scumhunt).

Which is to say.

It can explain why slots that overall look like scum, have incidents of sincere pushes behind them.

[mastina]

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

For the record.
I don't care if it's 7-2 or 4-5.
I don't believe in a MBOS game a claim of just "neighbor" with nothing extra in it.
No power role, no neighborhood abilities, just neighbor?

The lack of power role claim makes me pretty sure that Dunnstral is not town, and given the lack of openly claiming 3p, presumably, scum (which is to say, nontown that cannot win with town, whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's).