Newbie 2090 (Game Over)

[BigTerp]

In my experience, when a town player is close to elimination they make it known that they are vanilla town and that a kill on them won't hurt the town (in a sense that they are not a special role).

Can you elaborate? Because I honestly don't see the logic.

In my experience, when a town player is close to elimination they make it known that they are vanilla town and that a kill on them won't hurt the town (in a sense that they are not a special role).

Regardless of how the chips fall, there are 2 mafia and 2 special town roles. We certainly would rather eliminate a vanilla town versus a town special, agreed?

Agreed, but I feel like you speak as if there has to be an elimination. I don't see the gain in the town knowing you are vanilla. Town doesn't want to lynch their own no matter what, no? I don't really understand all this bloodlust. I was planning to make a post calling out TTTT for wanting double wagons. I feel like that situation is good for mafia. But now 2 other players have come out in favor of the stratagy. So now I'm just gonna assume I don't know the meta.

Isn't that our goal? To make an elimination via majority by the end of day 1? Honest question. I don't think I've never played a game were there wasn't an elimination during each day phase, at least that I can remember. What would be a good scenario where we don't eliminate someone by the end of any given day phase? I feel like we gain much more information by eliminating a player than not. Maybe things have changed in that regard since I last played.

I never really considered the double wagon strategy, but I do agree with Luke that it can provide a good bit of information. I'd be in for a double wagon myself, but currently feel pretty comfortable with Marci being at E-1. Until we hear more from them, I plan to stay where I'm at.

[marcistar]

A wagon on me of this size

isn't

the way to "get me more involved" believe it or not. If anything it'll make me focus more on defending myself/responding to seeing my name.

[furtiveglance]

Marci who is the most sus rn?
Feel free to say me

[PlmPestPlaY]

Waw. It appears to be true, at least for this type of setup. Given what I've learned, I am now a lot less interested in the game for some reason. Sooo eeeh double wappa? VOTE: Somnus

[TTTT]

Why do you (or TTTT who also asked about it) think that I should have left my vote in place in that situation?

the benefit of the extra pressure is greater than the risk of lolhammer

[TTTT]

@TTTT - Why are you not putting Somnus back on the table if you agree with me once you look at his ISO?

your post made me realize my TR on him wasn't based on a whole lot
so that read was weakened
doesn't change what is tactically the right thing here
which is getting someone to E1 and see what happens

[TTTT]

In my experience, when a town player is close to elimination they make it known that they are vanilla town and that a kill on them won't hurt the town (in a sense that they are not a special role).

Can you elaborate? Because I honestly don't see the logic.

This should only happen when intent to hammer is given. Otherwise, let's all just shut our mouths about roles. Outing that you are a VT helps scum PoE and find PRs.

[TTTT]

glad to see some of you are seeing the helpfulness of competing wagons and the benefit of everyone committing to a vote at this stage

[TTTT]

last thoughts before I have to get back to work
I like BigTerp's recent stuff on these last few pages
378 is super awkward and it's be amazing if this game was as simple as PPP-marci
@Luke - did you give a read on marci after their big catch-up posts? on mobile and haven't read everything in depth yet so maybe missed it.

[furtiveglance]

last thoughts before I have to get back to work
I like BigTerp's recent stuff on these last few pages
378 is super awkward and it's be amazing if this game was as simple as PPP-marci
@Luke - did you give a read on marci after their big catch-up posts? on mobile and haven't read everything in depth yet so maybe missed it.

PPP's 378 also caught my eye - it makes me more suspicious of PPP than of marci though, and it doesn't have to be marci for it to be PPP.

[marcistar]

Marci who is the most sus rn?
Feel free to say me

yes you

aliana or mr turtle as well

[TTTT]

marci
you haven't said a word about Somnus yet
now would be a good time

[Lukewarm]

Waw. It appears to be true, at least for this type of setup. Given what I've learned, I am now a lot less interested in the game for some reason. Sooo eeeh double wappa? VOTE: Somnus

Town wins by killing the Mafia. If there are 6 town left alive, or if there are two town left alive, it does not matter.

The only way we can kill the Mafia is to vote them out.

We have 3 misses before we have lost the game
7v2 today
5v2 after 1 miss
3v2 after 2 misses
1v2 (and officially lost) after the third miss.

If we do not kill anyone today, then we have 2 misses before we have lost the game
7v2 today
6v2 after a no elim
4v2 after 1 miss
2v2 and officially lost after 2 misses

----

Thinking about the game in the number of misses we have is how I like to think about a game.

If we kill Mafia today, we still have 3 misses.
If we kill town today, we have 2 misses AND the scummiest town player is off the table.
If we no kill today, we have 3 misses and the scummiest town player is still floating around to be miseliminated later.

Killing Mafia is obviously ideal, but killing scummy town is better then not doing anything.

And that is ignoring the benefit of seeing who voted for who, which definitely helps us actually finding Mafia later on.

[Mr Turtle]

Big fan of Turtles's 182

Spoiler:

Hey furtive
can you tell me who between Alanna and PimP
has a scummier entrance so far
and why?
yeah I know it's super early
but I need to see how you are thinking

I can't really read entrances like you seem to think you can. I will say this though, it was interesting that Alianna gave some ground in 52 and 54 when I would probably have told you to get lost. Town can be self-aware as well as mafia however.

As for PP (lol), their entrance seemed (again in a self-aware way) clumsy and awkward - 'Can't delete posts, right?'.

None of this is really something I would form reads on,

I prefer to analyse after the fact.

One thing I want to make sure of in this game is that the day 1 elimination actually provides some information, rather than people ganging up on a player for something random (ofmercia flashbacks).

After what fact?

The day 1 vote will give us a flip. I will use that to analyse day 1.

In your opinion, would you say "clumsy and awkward" entrance posts are more likely to be town or mafia?

No opinion on that like I said, just giving TTTT what they wanted.

So what is your plan for day 1 while you wait for a flip?

I will probably wait for a wagon to form, then defend the person getting voted/question the people on the wagon

I understand that from the perspective of a newer player it may seem like there isn't much to go off of during day 1, but just waiting on D1 until a wagon forms doesn't help advance town in any way. D1 is usually the hardest day-phase, because it's about creating content without actually having much content to go off of. Hence why RVS is a good way to get the game started.

I don't get your point about defending the person getting voted? Will you defend them regardless of your read on them?

Scratch that, I will give some very primitive reads, on order of how town I think a player is.

My biggest townread is Mr Turtle. They seem quite frank in a way that mafia might not be on day 1.

Also townlean on TTTT, seem to be trying to advance the game.

I will stay neutral on Somnus, they have said nothing about the game so far.

Lukewarm has said eww twice and nothing else, so no read.

Marci has not arrived yet - no read.

Alianna had a strange interaction with TTTT at the start, I will say no read because it wasn't really game related but could be nervous mafia or nervous town. Either way nervous

PimpPestPlay has seemed a bit blendy so far, almost like they want to be ignored in some posts. I will need more substance from them, for now it is a tentative scumlean.

BigTerp asked if I was cop in one of their first posts, which seems strange. Did they really not know I was joking about being a Rolecop? And do they really not know what the difference between Cop and Rolecop is alignment-wise? They insist on having no confusion but have given me some confusion so far. It could be that they aren't a native speaker/are new to this website/setup?
For now it's a tentative scumlean.

I'm glad you shared some initial reads. I have a couple questions though.

Why is mafia not frank on day 1?

Do you reckon that Somnus not saying anything about the game but still having a high amount of posts is alignment-indicative in any way?
Could PImPestPlay be blendy because they're new & nervous? Why are they a scum-lean?

I'm glad that you shared your reads and it makes me want to town-lean you. Some of your reasonings I don't see or agree with, but that's fine considering that it's early on and that they're bare-boned.

Especially the line that I highlighted. Would not expect a newbie scum to undercut a town read handed to them for a fairly weak reason.

I just saw that I misread Turtle's join date, and it was in 2020, not 2021. This is probably a weaker point if they have been around, but I do still like it.

Back again to amend this. Just checked how many games they have, and despite joining in 2020, they have not been in game. Looks like they have exactly 1 newbie game before this, and they did not play much in there.

I'd like to clarify that I've played a bit on other sites since then.

Spoiler:

marcistar - Not liking 169. The read on furtive was questionable. Felt like she was fishing for reasons to find them scummy. I didn’t see any of the things she was talking about. 204 seems suspicious as well but I would expect that more from newbie scum. So not sure quite what to think.

What about its questionable? "fishing for reasons to find them scummy" what do you thinks gonna happen so early on when not much has been established? What about the things I was talking about can't you see? I could try to explain better but you didn't really talk too much about what feels bad here so idk whats confusing for you.
how is 204 suspicious at all? my bad i wont ask people for their reads.

PlmPestPlaY

has the least amount of posts. He OMGUS' Somnus, makes a couple of statements I didn't really get in 201. I hope we can convince him to post a bit more and be more confident, else he'll remain completely unreadable. His lack of posting is

probably

due to this being his first forum game - I've been in the exact same place not even that long ago; however there's always the possibility of him being an overwhelmed mafia. He's in the null range for me, but I'd love to see a bit more thoughts even if they're basic and bare-boned.

The only thing I've found weird about 201, is the knot thing, but thats just because im dumb.

I'm a bit wary of you,

marcistar

. I

don't get whether the latter part of 208 is a joke or not,

but being vague makes it much harder to read you and not voting does too. Being able to double down on a take because you formulated it vague on purpose rarely helps the town and it's hard to know where you're at regarding your reads. I also agree with BigTerp's take on you with regards to the vague questions. Asking questions is completely valid and fine - I've done so a lot as well - but I'm

missing the part where you draw conclusions from the answers that you've gotten and share them with the thread.

However I did like your post in 169. You seemed to be putting effort into the game and the case on furtiveglance is the most well thought-out case this game. I just

don't get why you wouldn't vote him after saying you find him scummy and casing him?

I get that you want to make sure that you like the vote (208), but you seemed to have built a rather convincing case on him. At the moment, you seem the scummiest to me. Maybe you could

explain to me why you asked the questions and what you got out of the answers (198, 158 etc.)?

How do you plan on solving this game, what's your approach? It would be appreciated.

It's only partly a joke, I don't enjoy being vague but I don't really have time to do much compared to what other people do. I also kind of generally don't like being agressive, I like waiting until I feel like I

want

to vote, and not caring about whether it'll take off or not.

If the answer to any of my questions were meant to help me solve or anything,

if I drop the topic it's probably just the response was "fine enough".

I find him scummy, but not enough to vote. I posted the case to see reactions, and to see if furtiveglance has any way to defend themself first.

198 was a read I had, but didn't want to word in a case like I did with furitiveglance yet, and wanted to see what bigterp thought first.

I think now people have seen what I've seen though

. I've heard somebody say once that scum has a harder time having thoughts similar to townies, so I've been wanting to test that lately and see if anybody else can see what I see. Simple as that.

My plans just to ask questions and watch for as long as until I get a strong feeling like I want something, and then vote that and park there. It's so much easier when I just poke at things until I get into it. >.<

Let me know if any of these colors are hard for any of you to read.

Spoiler:

You'd rather be vague and wrong than aggressive and wrong? I mean, I guess that makes sense if you don't want to look scummy with a bad read. But that could very easily come off as mafia trying to hide behind vague posts and reads and then be able to come back with an excuse of they weren't confident or sure on their reads/votes.

What if I am unsure of my reads
Nah honestly, if I convince myself it's someone, but it isn't, I'll lose motivation thats what usually happpens but idk how to stop that.

No need to wait until your 100% convinced of that to put your vote down.

No I need to wait because I'll probably end up forgetting about ever making the vote in question.

This is the first they've discussed Marcistar, unless I missed something, have them as "slightly scummy" (along with me) yet doesn't have votes on either of us. Seems like a good way to be able to come back to either of us (myself and Marcistar) later and claim they've been reading them scum when they flip scum. I know I'm town, so that only leaves one conclusion. I'm pegging Alianna and Marcistar as the scum team.

Why are you jumping to preflip associatives? Did it never cross your mind that Alianna could possibly have a reason to be scum reading me "so suddenly"?

I like the pressure on Marci. Would like to get them more involved in the game.

A wagon on me of this size

isn't

the way to "get me more involved" believe it or not. If anything it'll make me focus more on defending myself/responding to seeing my name, if we're lucky in terms of me having time I would throw out a few reads, but nothing really says they would be good in anyway.

Some of marcistar's posts look like they came from a bot. But I'm not sure I want to put marcistar on E1.

Seen people talking about this, it isn't a weird comment. I'm unnatural right now.

What are your reads on the entire playerlist, for when you do get back?

I've seen this, I'm acknowledging it, I'm ignoring it now.
Ask me about specific people if you care, but I don't think its useful to make a whole readslist thats just 90% "hehe idk they could be either alignment!!"

Could you clarify the first blue part (bolded)? The second blue part also has a part I don't get - what have you and others seen?

I appreciate the honesty of your response, but I feel like your approach is a bit passive. Asking questions is good, but it's easy for mafia to look productive while asking questions without actually doing much solving. This is why I asked about what you get out of your questions. Parking your vote makes you harder to read and is also ideal for scum. I understand not wanting to be wrong, but not committing doesn't benefit town in the end. Also, the colors are great, don't worry about it.

----------------------

I really liked Luke's reads. They don't seem to be afraid to have different opinions from the consensus and push those reads, something which puts them in the spotlight. I don't think this type of attention-grabbing comes from mafia.

Luke, you said that you didn't want to commit on a read on marcistar before they posted more. They've posted a bit more now. What're your thoughts on them?

[Mr Turtle]

BigTerp, I acknowledge your thoughts on Alianna. I disagree, I think that their first day was quite natural, but I am a bit discouraged by their reduced amount of posting from early day 1. Hopefully they'll pick it back up.

Luke - another question. What is the difference between an over-defensive towny and scum desperately trying to push someone in Somnus' case?

May I ask, am I the only one who has a hard time understanding PPP's posts? They're worded very confusingly and I don't really know what to make of it.

[Frozen Angel]

Vote Count 1-9

marcistar (4)[E1]:

Mr Turtle, BigTerp, Alianna, TTTT

Somnus (2):

Lukewarm, PlmPestPlaY

PlmPestPlaY (1):

Somnus

Not Voting (2):

marcistar, furtiveglance

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: March 15, 5 am GMT.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-03-15 05:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[furtiveglance]

Intent to hammer Marcistar

[Lukewarm]

Countdown: 6 days, 3 hours, 28 minutes

[furtiveglance]

They have nothing else to say about the game. I would prefer PPP probably but I'm optimistic that Marcistar is mafia

[furtiveglance]

The game has gone a bit stale and I want to jumpstart it

[Lukewarm]

Ending the day is about the most opposite from jump starting the thread as you can get lol

[Lukewarm]

I have thoughts about Marci's post 385

Anyone else notice something here?

I was originally gonna give it some time to simmer, but apparently there is not time for that

[furtiveglance]

What do you notice? To me it was saying I was mafia (no) and two of my townreads are mafia (I don't think so)

[Lukewarm]

I have a point that I noticed off hand when I read the post - but give me ~10 mins, I wanna grab some stuff to cross reference.

[Lukewarm]

Actually, started pulling stuff, and then felt like it was gonna take too much effort lmao.

She is on the brink of elimination, and asked "who do you think would be a better elim then you" and her answer was Furtive > Alianna / Turtle. Alianna and Turtle are possibly the most town read players in the game? (this was the thing that I was starting to pull. Compile everyones reads on every other slot. But then gave up).

And then you, who despite having people voice concerns on you, there are multiple people actively avoiding your elimination today (me and TTTT) - if we are both against killing you today, whose votes is she getting to push you through?

-------

Why did she not point the finger at PPP? He could have the votes: TTTT, BigTerp, Turtle, Somnus. That is 4 people saying that PPPP is "the best elim" or "I'd be willing to vote" or placing them at the bottom of their reads list, which add Marci, thats an elim.

Why not point the finger at Somnus [that is the current leading counter wagon] and let me lead an elim that saves her?

------

Basically, a statement of Furtive, Turtle, and Alianna as her scum reads, without big moves to make a wagon happen on any of them, is a terrible list of names to present if she wants to save herself. Scum could name anyone they want, and had much better choices. Wown would name the people they are actually suspicious of.

I don't think that this is a slam dunk Marci is town case (or I would have made it the moment I saw it) - but it is enough that I am not ready for her to be hammered right now.

I mentioned earlier that I had planned to let it simmer, because I wanted to see if she shifted focus to one of the other players given a little bit of time, but thats not a thing that can happen any more.