Wagon analysis time:
VP Baltar (7): Scorpious, tenebrousluminary, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, fireisredsir, MathBlade, DeasVail (E-2)
Scorpious
This is obviously a trash vote. I asked him why he was voting me and this is what he said:
In post 2914, Scorpious wrote:
Idk, someone said me and you were scum and said it was too easy..
Since I’m not you just be based on that logic.
Since then, Scorpious hasn't really said anything to me and has called the game state boring. He did state I'm a top scum read though. I guess because "someone" said it was him or me.
Very possible coasting scum here, but who knows with his play this game.
tenebrousluminary
Going back through my interactions with Tenebros, he maybe looks less scummy than I should have assessed him in the moment. What really set me off was the way he was egging on my fight with Cape with posts like this:
In post 2692, tenebrousluminary wrote: In post 2683, VP Baltar wrote:
You made that giant post after I called you out and you don't actually vote me?
Who you calling a coward?
In post 2688, VP Baltar wrote:For the record, I made a post last night about 30 mins before deadline expired calling out Cape because I didn't want my actual thoughts on the game to go to the grave with me. I figured if I ate a vig shot or something, at least someone who is town could carry on my concerns today.
Judging by the size and extent of that post Cape just made, it seems clear to me he started writing that response about at that point knowing I was going to come out of the gates at him today. The fact there is no vote there on a giant wall case makes no sense.
Did you plan on responding to its substance, or just shading Cape for writing it?
What tene is saying here is pretty scummy on its face in the sense that he's not talking about details, just trying to shade me and say Cape and I should be arguing more (we were already going at it). Cape's case was demonstrably not good, as multiple people besides me have said, but that's irrelevant to tene in his interactions with me.
HOWEVER....
In looking at tene and my interactions, I did notice this post and worry maybe I lost my objectively a little bit in that fight because tene was being kind of belligerent.
In post 2632, VP Baltar wrote: In post 2627, MalcolmTucker wrote:I'd be interested to know where VP's thoughts stand on tenebros so far, and vice versa. Looking through their ISO there are a lot of soft interactions here without much of an indication as to what VP or tenebros necessarily think of each other as individual players. Like there isn't really a strong defence of tenebros while under pressure, but there's an attempt to paint Fua in a bad light after an exchange with tenebros, for example.
I haven't found tenebros all that scummy, and fua did look like shit in that interaction, as well as for not killing/not claiming target this morning.
You seem very eager to shade me on flimsy reasons.
Anyhow, I think tene's vote on me is pretty lazy, but perhaps less scum inclined than I was feeling more presently.
Nero Cain
Not going to go super in depth here. I still think Nero is kind of a village idiot. He certainly deserves scrutiny after y'all see my flip, but if I'm looking for scum in the neighborhood, I think it's much more likely between skitter and Cape.
Frogsterking
I stand by my scum read here. Frogster was not even talking about me until I called him out for vote camping on Yeet D1, and then he planted an OMGUS vote on me and has once again become a non-entity in the thread.
I encourage anyone to contrast his play in this game with Mini 2258:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
Frogster was getting into in that game with almost anyone and everyone, and wildly going after scum reads to a point where he looked delusional and everyone could tell he was town. He's extremely timid and readless this game by comparison.
fireisredsir
To April's read about there being scum in fire and DV, I think fire is much more likely. His scumread of me today seems more opportunistic and his reasons are largely "feelings" based.
It's a little hard to tell because DV and fire are kind of playing off each other, but fire's vote is the follower here and he was kind of sniffing around my wagon for awhile before he put a vote down.
In post 3470, fireisredsir wrote: In post 3456, DeasVail wrote:I think I have gotten myself into a tunnel and after a reassessment I am no longer sure of this read.
UNVOTE: Tenebro
Reading through tenebro’ Iso again, I am more inclined to think that the dismissive nature is an unhelpful way of communicating, but I don’t actually think it lines up with the scum-tenebro image that I had created for myself. If I thought that tenebro was scum trying to blend in and appease, then their approach to suspicion in fact does the opposite.
I am happy to discuss with anyone regarding this, and would particularly be interested if anyone thinks I am making a mistake in backing off this, but I think it’s more likely that tenebro-scum was a world I wanted to be true rather than one that actually is true.
yea ive been starting to feel this way as well. i wanted to keep the tene wagon leading to see if anyone would try to push it in, but eh might as well switch now. eyes is p much as good as voting there, with a townread on VP and a scumread on tene.
VOTE: VP Baltar
There's a timid nature in fire's play where he is playing off other people to express his suspicions. I felt like D1 he was being much more original in his thought process, but he's been pretty meh today. Example:
In post 3368, fireisredsir wrote: In post 3366, VP Baltar wrote: In post 3361, fireisredsir wrote:i think cape's case had a couple good points but overall wasn't amazing but was also pretty towny for cape.
Why was a case that you admit is not that good towny?
I don't have experience with cape, so is this meta I'm not understanding?
it's not that it's towny because it's not good, it's towny cause it feels, as you called it, "stream of consciousness and aimless". it's kinda disorganized but it shows a clear thought process. idk cape meta cause he only has a few games and all are town but it does fit in pretty well with how he posts as town from what ive read
MathBlade
Confirmed town obv. Disappointed in Math's play, but not surprised.
DeasVail
Like I said, I find DV more town out of him and fire. I think his vote is meh overall, but I don't detect a lot of malice. I've misread DV's town play in the past, iirc, so it's not surprising to me that he is making some wrong choices. Probably town and he can apologize to me in post game.
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So final analysis is probably scum in Scorpious, Frogster and Fire on my wagon. If I'm guessing, probably only two of those and I'm wrong somewhere.
Off my wagon, I think there is likely a scum between skitter and Cape.
Final scum is a bit more wild card. I'm a big concerned that someone defending me is scum. April and Datisi are both smart enough to do that, so worth watching there long term, but I wouldn't lim either in the short term. Let their play and reads speak for them. I think Eyes is probably town being noble, but you never know. I think people will come after them for being TMI when I flip green, but I wouldn't necessarily buy it. Yeet is the other possible defender scum, and I did mark in my overnight look that Yeet and Cape were the biggest question marks for me on the Wu wagon. I probably should compare my wagon to Wu's and see if I need to update that. Yeet's defense of me feels a little more organic than Eyes for sure.
TL;DR - kill the scum that's been attacking and discrediting me today before you worry about the single scum who may have been defending me. Scum are going to want to focus on that smaller pool after my flip, but don't be fooled by that bullshit.