I'm not actually sure you hard-defend a scum-buddy like that if you're scum because nobody else on the scum team is defending dunn.
it's near TSTBS levels of bad.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:14 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 1649, Infinity 324 wrote:The probability of a given set of 4 people currently alive having at least 1 scum (assuming 3 scum total) is about 75%. If dunn is scum, scum are just as likely to vote dunn or TGP since it doesn’t matter to them who gets limmed. If dunn is scum, scum would almost never vote dunn. Since 4 people excluding myself voted dunn, that group is likely to have at least 1 scum, so dunn is likely town.
Also yeah, there was almost no resistance to dunn.
like im not sure you can make such a bad post if you are scum with dunn because its just so ugh.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:16 am
by Infinity 324
I see what you’re saying, but dunn wasn’t ever in danger after the TGP elim.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:17 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
yes,
you were his biggest defender and a reason why he was never in danger.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:21 am
by Infinity 324
But who besides you and gloria were pushing dunn? I think hopkirk but that’s it. There just weren’t the votes.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:29 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
But you don't know that at the beginning of a day.
TGP's dying words were to power-elim dunn.
The game state opens up between days when all the votes that were on a previously eliminated player are suddenly free to go anywhere - dunn was the #2 wagon and the strongest SR of the dying townie. Momentum would be on him if people follow through - something the scum can't afford to happen.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:37 am
by Infinity 324
Idk what to tell you, I do think that scum!me could’ve waited to see whether a hard defense was really needed but maybe I would’ve played the same way as scum. I don’t know.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:06 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria's posts from 1475 on feel so good :/ we really should've killed dunn there.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:09 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
flea/tweetie deflecting gloria's push on dunn, feels like she was so close to voting him :/
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:16 am
by Infinity 324
It did, I don’t think there was anything stopping her from changing her mind to TGP at deadline if necessary though?
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:28 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
it wouldn't matter because you unvoted and switched to TGP.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:29 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
I do kinda see how these could be real thoughts in your head about not wanting the dunn wagon that you started in the first place.
I'm going to re-read your explanations from D2-start about why you scuttled your own wagon.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:30 am
by Infinity 324
I think I was biased since I voted dunn specifically to see how much traction it would get and it got more than I expected. So I weighted that info more heavily than I should’ve if that makes sense.
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:34 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
yes it does make sense
for what it's worth I do see your posts on transition as someone who is genuinely confused - I don't think scum have an incentive to defend dunnstral as much over the top as you have.
Skitter's celebration of you changing your vote actually doesn't seem faked - she seems happy you switched your vote to TGP.
Scum had enough votes off-wagon between gyp/tweet to force TGP-death even if you stayed on the dunn-wagon so it doesn't make sense in terms of planning for you to win as deepwolf.
In post 1380, Infinity 324 wrote:I get the TMI thing a lot, it’s an unfortunate result of being a gut-based player. But that’s an acceptable answer.
It’s a silly reason, but I still feel like dunn is >rand scum gut from taylor not engaging me on game-relevant content.
what happened to this?
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:35 pm
by Infinity 324
Dunn started posting and looked town to me. I TRed his flippant “idgaf what you say I’ll solve when I solve” attitude. Though I probably should’ve been more skeptical since I have a history of misreading dunn. Dunn is often limbait though ime.
the VC is favorable for scum with TGP-5 vs Skitter-3 with only 2 known conspirators out of the 5.
then something curious happens - Infinity who unvoted skitter, votes for Dunn, and then Isis follows. Dunn says to Isis to "go away sweaty" and 2 more votes follow and we are now tied at 4-4 btw TGP/Dunn, which really is Dunn ahead since TGP has yet to vote for Dunn.
11AM Gloria votes for TGP, 3PM TGP votes for Dunn making it 5-5.
at 5pm Gloria unvotes Dunn and says she is re-evaluating. - making it 5-4 TGP v Dunn
This is a important stage in the game because with the wagons at 5-4 scum are in real danger of losing this game. - I am pushing for Dunn to die here and I think Dunn made some TMI posts here that Gloria is re-evaluating, Tweetie comes in out of nowhere to defend Dunn so the threat should feel real to scum-side that Gloria is going to put her vote to Dunn and momentum could just lead to scum-loss there.
Flea is also iso-rereading Dunn.
The skitter/infinity convo doesn't feel like S/S theater, I think she really is trying to convince him to vote for TGP and leave his vote there:
She starts by saying infinity is the "towniest person here" and "yay" when he flips his vote and I think she is pocketing him to get him to vote for TGP over dunn?
@jessie's vote on TGP feels like it has the least "substance" behind it, I'd like to know why she voted for TGP over dunn here:
Flea's re-evaluation post of Dunn: 1517 feels genuine.
an interesting thing to note here is the scum-strategy and how they played at the end of D1.
Even though their buddy Dunn was under pressure at 5-5 with a serious chance things will swing badly for them if Gloria puts her vote on Dunnstral, they are patient and do not move tweet or gypyx onto TGP, instead the strategy feels more passive if Infinity is green here.
sorry is this about dunn or hopkirk? cuz i thought dunn at first and i would in no way agree with this assessment of dunn at all ^
I don’t know why, every towngame I ‘ve read of his, he has done more than he is here. He’s only given one townread so far: Flea and two maybe three scumreads: TGP, and now Pooky. And even that post he made about launching players due to their post count. he can’t bother to make actual reads or what?
At any rate Isis is a terrible vote. I strongly tr her pre-flip and it’s actually even stronger post-flip.
In post 1634, Infinity 324 wrote:I actually think I’ve seen dunn do more in scumganes than town games generally. I don’t think lurking is scummy at all for him.
Who said I sr him for lurking, because I’m dam sure I never said anything of the kind.
Maybe I’m just not doing a terrific job of articulating it well. It’s the content of his posts I dislike. He really isn’t saying much of anything of substance plus his tone seems kind of off. Town!Dunn may lurk and not post a lot that is true but when he does it’s useful content and solvey, no matter how much or how little. It’s not the number of posts, it’s what he’s saying in them.
In post 1644, Infinity 324 wrote:It’s more that scum would almost never vote dunn in that situation, and statistically there’s very likely at least one scum on that wagon (of 5 at its height, I believe)
Statistically, scum is far more likely to be on TOWN!TGP wagon, since there was heavy resistance to Dunn. Why would scum try to derail a wagon on TGP? That makes absolutely no sense.
Yes Infinity, your scumread on me makes a great deal of sense,
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:42 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
yea i dont think gloria does that play when dunn is at 5 votes and she's thinking of putting him at E-1
Tweetie coming in and telling Gloria noo noo noo feels more like scum panic than scum theater.
