Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:16 pm
@Mod: going to be V/LA for the next 48 hours
Got it!
this sounds a bit odd. since everyone has claimed now id like you to follow up on thisIn post 3828, davesaz wrote:I have a mechanical analysis of Shelly's claim, but it makes more sense to talk about it after massclaim. I don't want to take any risk at all that scum can use it to get an advantage.
Yep, there is no way Hectic commuted night 1 when three PRs had been outed so this looks really bad in light of claim.In post 3856, shellyc wrote:Another thing: hectic pointed out Norway’s check on bugspray making bugs near conftown which makes no sense from a commuter perspective as a commuter would want to eat the nightkill
i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?In post 3860, UNOwen wrote:Yep, there is no way Hectic commuted night 1 when three PRs had been outed so this looks really bad in light of claim.In post 3856, shellyc wrote:Another thing: hectic pointed out Norway’s check on bugspray making bugs near conftown which makes no sense from a commuter perspective as a commuter would want to eat the nightkill
Hectic should have had no worries about surviving to day 4, so he had no reason to out bugspray as the likely gunsmith clear. Doing that points the scum kill away from himself which is the opposite of what his role is useful for. If he commuted night 1 + 2 it is more understandable but also not credible.In post 3861, duppin wrote: i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?
ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this pointIn post 3862, UNOwen wrote:Hectic should have had no worries about surviving to day 4, so he had no reason to out bugspray as the likely gunsmith clear. Doing that points the scum kill away from himself which is the opposite of what his role is useful for. If he commuted night 1 + 2 it is more understandable but also not credible.In post 3861, duppin wrote: i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?
Norwegian was still around on day 2 so while it is more plausible I don't really buy commuting then either.In post 3863, duppin wrote: ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this point
its also a possobility he is a 1-shot and used it day 2 and but is doing it to introduce wifom into the next night since shelly seemed to spew him as the kill (dont comment on this hectic)
not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his abilityIn post 3864, UNOwen wrote:Norwegian was still around on day 2 so while it is more plausible I don't really buy commuting then either.In post 3863, duppin wrote: ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this point
its also a possobility he is a 1-shot and used it day 2 and but is doing it to introduce wifom into the next night since shelly seemed to spew him as the kill (dont comment on this hectic)
There is not much need to introduce wifom because Hectic guaranteed he doesn't die tonight the moment he claimed X-shot commuter, regardless of how many charges he has. Which means it is exactly the move he had to make if scum, as otherwise whichever of me/Plus/dave is still around would question why scum!shelly doesn't just kill him and push an UNO/duppin team for victory.
The bugs comment suggests that either way. Shelly doesn't kill Hectic because him flipping X-shot commuter wouldIn post 3865, duppin wrote: not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his ability
kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claimIn post 3867, UNOwen wrote:The bugs comment suggests that either way. Shelly doesn't kill Hectic because him flipping X-shot commuter wouldIn post 3865, duppin wrote: not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his abilityprobablybe enough to convince the town in Plus/dave to at least reconsider.
the issue is that if plus is town then this game is already lost and i dont really have a problem with that itself, but i have an issue with the lack of effort. he talks about iso diving, wanting to revaluate etc but hasn't done any of that yet still puts out a vote in mylo. I would lie if i said that it did not bother me a little because i think he is more likely to be town over daveIn post 3868, UNOwen wrote:It's tough, because on the one hand there's:
- dodgy dave stubbornly sitting on his hands the entire day
- Plus hammering without a claim twice and ending day 3 way too early
- shelly with an unconvincing and conveniently timed claim
Individually any one of them looks scummier to me than either duppin or Hectic but together there is no combination that satisfyingly explains how they've played today. Shelly sticking her neck out to save dave by going after duppin is a strange risk if that's the team, even stranger if it's Plus/shelly (which I doubt, but suppose is still possible).
On the other hand, duppin and Hectic are playing really clean games and there's not much I take issue with. But with how this day has gone I can totally see them making sense as a team.
You're right that the Hectic kill might have been a risk anyway, but Plus at least seemed to be expecting it to happen even in the shelly town world.In post 3869, duppin wrote: kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claim
I do agree here. Kind of expecting it to be me who will end up making the call, but if I die tonight and Plus is town I really hope he takes his time to consider his vote. Especially when dave is just floating around and not saying anything, even though this day is literally being dragged to deadline just to give him the chance to correct that.In post 3870, duppin wrote: the issue is that if plus is town then this game is already lost and i dont really have a problem with that itself, but i have an issue with the lack of effort. he talks about iso diving, wanting to revaluate etc but hasn't done any of that yet still puts out a vote in mylo. I would lie if i said that it did not bother me a little because i think he is more likely to be town over dave
plus was pushing the idea very early on this day that if hectic survived then he would push him tomorrow because he would be the most likely partner, he didnt state for who but and didnt respond to when i asked him to elaborate but later kind of followed up on it and said he was the most likely partner for me. I initially thought his logic was a bti weird, but then when i realised he mixed up the replacements it made a bit more sense to me, but i am a bit troubled by him not revaluating associations after realising he messed up the replacements. So yeah ultimately i think he is lazy town or scum and at the moment i am leaning more towards the former because I think dave is more suspiciousIn post 3871, UNOwen wrote:You're right that the Hectic kill might have been a risk anyway, but Plus at least seemed to be expecting it to happen even in the shelly town world.In post 3869, duppin wrote: kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claim