Page 157 of 165

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:35 am
by Keyser Söze
Well BV said Errant = town here, so will be interesting to see him lynch Skitter ...
In post 3573, BlackVoid wrote:Posts relating to the neighborizing/guilty outing.

- I like the "maybe you'll find out" part. It seemed genuine - like something TheWorst would actually say in a neighborhood PT given his coy behavior in thread. And it's a tangential detail that I don't think Errant would make up?
- Can you actually point to evidence that you're friends? You only played a couple of games together.
- I think this is a townie response to Rask's accusation. I think mafia would refute it more seriously if Rask was actually on point as opposed to laughing about what an absurd theory it was.
- I think this is a towntell because scum would want to be more abrasive towards their partners in a distancing effort. I think this actually fits errant's non-confrontational personality more. His response here is consistent with how he continued apologizing to me after a misunderstanding.
- This is the strongest towntell that I referred to earlier. Rask gave both of them an out by asking Errant if he was claiming TheWorst's result for him. Errant immediately confirms that it's not and revotes TheWorst. The "panic" that he was referring to earlier also feels genuine. That it all happened in a minute is another reason.
- This is not a huge towntell since TheWorst was doomed anyways but he didn't need to dissuade Nauci and Rask from their theories about how I'd be a better lynch than TheWorst. He could have voted TheWorst for the cred and let them lead themselves wherever they will. I had liked this post when he made it too.
- I also kinda like this post. I think he'd want to score the more difficult lynch in me before I have a chance to convince everyone I'm town. NM will always be an easy lynch no matter what.

So, overall I feel pretty good. This rejuvenated my townread on errantp. I did have some misgivings about how stubborn Gustavo was being but it's a personality trait that he can replicate as scum and Stungun's associatives really, really fit with what I think he'd do as scum and his philosophy and obsession with distancing match his play here and make more sense than the worldview that he's town with the reads he had.

I'll give a quick look at Stungun's other scumgame to double check before I vote but I'm feeling much more comfortable a Gustavo lynch will end it.

But Errant will have to go for BV:
In post 3496, Errantparabola wrote:4. ConclusionISOing almost ended up leaving me with more uncertainty than before but ultimately my feelings aren't really changed. I'd think Gustavo is the last scum, BV is a big pile of unknowns but a lot of things just really clearly point to him being town in spite of everything, skitter is town or my worldview in general just breaks down.I got a lot less from scum associations than I thought I would which is a little disappointing.Anyway, that's all I got. I'll just sheep Irre/Keyser, keep talking to anyone who wants to and about anything, and wish yall the best of luck. This post is directed to Irre, who asked me to express more detailed thoughts on Gustavo and BV. You're welcome. don't say i didn't do anything for you LMAO

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:36 am
by Gustavo
In post 3900, Keyser Söze wrote:Well BV said Errant = town here, so will be interesting to see him lynch Skitter ...
he also had me as a town read but he managed to lynch me all the while misrepping me so I really don't know who the last scum is.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:37 am
by Keyser Söze
Skitter would lynch BV over Errant...
In post 3698, skitter30 wrote:
In post 3689, BlackVoid wrote:I don't know if I can convince you to re-assess Errant when I myself am so unsure and there's a fair bit of evidence against Gustavo/Stungun. I think the best option is to flip Gustavo. If we're right, awesome. If we're wrong, then I at least know for sure that Errant is scum. I can buy that you townread Errant harder than me if he's actually town. But I don't think you'll lynch a town-me over a scum-Errant. If he's scum, there's definitely going to be something I can point out that'll explain why he's scum to get you to re-evaluate. @skitter.
on some sort of gut, fundemental level i'm townreading him. like i can't really make the game make sense right now if he's scum. idk i just don't see it. i don't want to lynch him today. like i agree that the reaction to the neighbhorhood thing is the towniest part of his iso but like ... i don't really scumread the rest of it; at best i consider it nai. like he hasn't done anything scummy and parts of his iso are like bleeding town in the context of scum!tw and the guilty and all that jazz

and gustavo's being super town right now; i don't know if the last scum gets that pissed and just votes themselves, twice now. or like keeps the vote on him.

amongst the three of you he was prob set up the best to coast after a tw scumflip and his trajectories on flipped scum are kinda gross but like i'm townreading him today.

and i think you're kinda out of your scumrange and you just feel super nuanced in a way that i think you probably have trouble faking, especially over a sustained period of time. that and the tw-guilty thing doesn't feel like something you were involved in planning - like we tend to approach the game kinda similarly and like that's never how i fake a guilty with my partner because my goal would be to coast after and it feels too messy for that.

at the same time i'm very aware that your path-to-victory if scum is basically through pocketing me so i can't just call you a townread and call it a day because like if you *are* scum here that's how you win

(and i don't even know if like appealing to me here is AI here because if you're town that's basically what you need to do too)

i guess i'm somewhere like gustavo > you > ep but i don't feel confident in it

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:39 am
by Keyser Söze
Should have got someone to replace N_M, that was a wasted lynch.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:40 am
by Gustavo
In post 3903, Keyser Söze wrote:Should have got someone to replace N_M, that was a wasted lynch.
he wasn't going to replace out though. Yes it was a wasted lynch but it was necessary. He never does anything to help town and he didn't do that here.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:41 am
by Irrelephant11
Keyser good luck tonight
Here's hoping errant is the nightkill :P

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:42 am
by Irrelephant11
Sorry, *cough*, I meant to say BOY IF SCUM KILLS ERRANT I WILL HAVE NO CLUE WHO IT IS

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:43 am
by Keyser Söze
I think a lot of players are stuck in their reads, so it'll be an interesting one for scum.
Good luck too

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:45 am
by skitter30
/le sigh

not looking forward to tomorrow then

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:47 am
by Irrelephant11
anyone secretly a useful pr who held out longer than nauci?
that would be my favorite twist

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:47 am
by Keyser Söze
In post 3908, skitter30 wrote:/le sigh

not looking forward to tomorrow then
Claim your win now skitter

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:47 am
by Keyser Söze
In post 3909, Irrelephant11 wrote:anyone secretly a useful pr who held out longer than nauci?
that would be my favorite twist
In post 3886, Keyser Söze wrote:Gustavo was town.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:48 am
by Irrelephant11
Honestly if skitter were to hardclaim mafia rn I'd just give her the win

pedit: :lol: :lol: :lol:
I'm still hoping for a twist I enjoyyy

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:52 am
by Irrelephant11
...dangit skitter you're too good for that as scum huh

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:54 am
by skitter30
i wish i could pull something like that off lol

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:07 am
by Errantparabola
In post 3893, Gustavo wrote:You didn’t answer why you voted somebody you town read and thought was a Pr right after 2 townies did.
shrug
In post 3895, Keyser Söze wrote:You weren't town reading TW by the end of D1... but still neighborized him.
like i said many many times before, I have neither a justification nor response to this
In post 3897, Gustavo wrote:out of bv and errant, I feel like errant is being less helpful, he seems to be dancing around questions. I believe I did ask for these crumbs he saw by the worst and I don't remember him pointing them out.
Gustavo: "what crumbs did you see from the worst"
EP: *answers the question*
Gustavo: "i dont think EP asnwered the question. what crumbs did you see from the worst?"
EP: *answers the question*
Gustavo: "i still dont remember if EP answered the question. what crumbs did you see from the worst?"

is this like talking to an NPC?
In post 3905, Irrelephant11 wrote:Keyser good luck tonight
Here's hoping errant is the nightkill :P
In post 3909, Irrelephant11 wrote:anyone secretly a useful pr who held out longer than nauci?
that would be my favorite twist
i can fulfill both of these conditions in one fell swoop
TWILIGHT-VIG: MYSELF

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:08 am
by Errantparabola
please tell me gustavos just trolling us

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:15 am
by Irrelephant11
don't give me so much hope
it's cruel

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:16 am
by Gustavo
In post 3915, Errantparabola wrote:EP: *answers the question*
I don't remember seeing them...

if you did answer them, cool it doesn't matter for me anymore i'm dead

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:18 am
by Gustavo
In post 3916, Errantparabola wrote:please tell me gustavos just trolling us
no i'm not.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:19 am
by Gustavo
Damn. Flipping bv here would have been so much better.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:51 am
by BlackVoid
Okay, it's not skitter so it's definitely Errant. I was fearing that this might happen for a while but the Gustavo lynch was definitely a mix of "can't have him in LYLO" and him looking scummy as opposed to me being absolutely 100% sure he was scum. I didn't feel like I could plausibly get Errant lynched today even if I re-read and concluded he was scummier. So this was the only practical outcome here. Skitter and to some extent Irrelephant were really conf-biased in their read there.
In post 3890, Gustavo wrote:town would have had a better chance of winning if they lynched bv today imo.
You tunneling me was at least part of the reason I just wanted you flipped today. If you had worked with me and considered Errant, I'd have been more inclined to try to change everyone's mind. There's no scenario in which me getting mislynched is a good outcome for town. It would certainly have been frustrating to watch you and Errant go at each other from the dead thread while everybody conf-biased their townreads on Errant and lynched you and town losing.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:56 am
by BlackVoid
In post 3899, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'll be looking most closely at BV, tomorrow, actually

Think I gave up on him too easily when he AtE'd my paranoia
I didn't appeal to emotion. I appealed to logic.

Which scenario is more likely: TheWorst guiltying a partner or TheWorst neighborizing/fake-neighborizing a partner and trying to mislynch a townie before he goes down?

Keep in mind that in the former scenario, he was almost guaranteed to lose because he didn't know what other PRs were in the game, he didn't know if he could explain his continued survival. He wasn't particularly townread either.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:01 pm
by BlackVoid
As a pre-amble to what's coming tomorrow, I'm going to suggest that skitter and whichever conf-town is alive tomorrow try and logically consider my arguments as opposed to vote based on paranoia. The most evidence suggests I'm town. The setup suggests I'm town. I'm obviously a better debater than Errant. Don't discount my arguments and give him the win because he ATE'd or got mad or whatever else scum keep doing. His play today has been the definition of how scum would approach this situation. He laid low. He never pushed any lynch. He pretty much stayed in the background. It's the kind of feeling scum sometimes do when they are townread and don't want to upset the status quo by impacting the game too much.

Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:04 pm
by Gustavo
In post 3921, BlackVoid wrote:You tunneling me was at least part of the reason I just wanted you flipped today. If you had worked with me and considered Errant, I'd have been more inclined to try to change everyone's mind.
God this misrep. I didn’t tunnel anyone. I voted who I thought fit as scum and the moment I voted you, you immediately took errant out of the equation.