Alright, it's time for some analysis on what happened earlier in the game.
First of all, Let's look back at day 1's final moments.
penguin_alien wrote:Afternoon Vote Count 1.20
Afternoon 1 will end in
(expired on 2021-03-01 23:59:59)
With 17 players alive, it takes 9 votes to Bronze.
Dunnstral (2):
quiet
, Spiffeh
SirCakez
(7):
mastina
, Dunnstral,
Kitty Trauma Team
,
Lady Lambdadelta
, PookyTheMagicalbear, Titus, MathBlade
mastina
(7): GreyICE, Prism, Battle Mage, Tammy,
SirCakez
, borkjerfkin, Bell
Mathblade (1):
Sangres
Not voting (0):
Mod notes: 83/85 pages used (switching to post count here: 2078/2125 posts)
Battle Mage is V/LA until Monday evening
LLD is V/LA.
mastina and SirCakez are cross bussing, Spiffeh is the last unflipped player firmly parked outside of either scum.
So it's either Spiffeh or all scum are bussing right now - at this point, it's clear that one of the scum players are going to be eliminated.
Before this point, there is talk of Prism and Bell swapping their votes from mastina to SirCakez. Then, sangres moves onto mastina - Spiffeh instantly hammers mastina.
This hammer was a lot worse than people thought. Sircakez was a pr and mastina was a mafia goon, Prism and Bell were getting ready to vote out the pr, and it set Spiffeh up the next day to posture. Which he did do, by the way:
2198. And then he goes on to make this post:
2203 where he argues that myself, bork, dgb, titus, pooky alllook bad, and that Cakez should get the artifact. He then also points to bork again by bringing up sangres.
Let's go back a bit, let's look at the vote counts prior to this point, where were people before it became scum v scum?
Cabd wrote:Afternoon Vote Count 1.16b
Afternoon 1 will end in
(expired on 2021-03-01 23:59:59)
With 17 players alive, it takes 9 votes to Bronze.
Dunnstral (6):
quiet
, MathBlade,
SirCakez
, Battle Mage, Spiffeh, Titus
Titus (3): borkjerfkin,
Lady Lambdadelta
, PookyTheMagicalBear
SirCakez
(3):
mastina
, Dunnstral,
Kitty Trauma Team
mastina
(4): GreyICE,
sangres
, Bell, Prism
Not voting (1): Tammy
Mod notes: 76/85 pages used
Battle Mage is V/LA until Monday evening
mastina is bussing already; I'm not sure why, but it's a thing, and we can remove that from the equation.
A spicy take is that she doesn't want to join a wagon that already has too many scum on it.
This is a large wagon on myself, SirCakez is on it.
Cabd wrote:Afternoon Vote Count 1.17
Afternoon 1 will end in
(expired on 2021-03-01 23:59:59)
With 17 players alive, it takes 9 votes to Bronze.
Dunnstral (4):
quiet
, MathBlade,
SirCakez
, Spiffeh
Titus (1): borkjerfkin
SirCakez
(6):
mastina
, Dunnstral,
Kitty Trauma Team
,
Lady Lambdadelta
, PookyTheMagicalbear, Titus
mastina
(5): GreyICE,
sangres
, Prism, Battle Mage, Tammy
Mathblade (1): Bell
Not voting (0):
Mod notes: 77/85 pages used
Battle Mage is V/LA until Monday evening
This is the next votecount. At this point the votes are starting to move away from me and towards SirCakez/mastina, both scum, and this isn't a good gamestate for scum, they don't want this to happen.
LLD, Pooky, and Titus moved their votes from me to SirCakez. I'm thinking this is all town based on how it goes down.
Bell moves from mastina to Mathblade as the mastina wagon grpws. Notably a Mathblade wagon did have some hope of growing.
Mathblade and Spiffeh missed their bus and are stuck still voting for me here.
Bork is stuck still voting for Titus.
This was the deciding VC. At this point the votes are locked on scum.
In the next VC, Mathblade votes to SirCakez. Bork and Bell move to mastina. Spiffeh continues to try to get people to vote for me.
-----
Before I move on to my next point, why did sangres and Kitty Trauma Team both die on night 1?
I believe if one of these kills way done by town, now is the time to claim it.
Otherwise we can assume it was done by scum. Notably, LLD was the one who got the first artifact, so it wasn't because of that.
Also,
3293 needs explanation today.
-----
Remember how I asked why we had to pick the artifact right away, like it was a race? Apparently the answer was that scum had a thief and didn't care who got the artifact, because they were never in contention to get it themselves and had a chance to steal it.
3223
Yeah, that's been feeling awkward all game. On day 2 and day 3 multiple players expressed that they wanted to 'get it over with' as if it wasn't important. With recent flips, that is something that is scummy.
Here, let me make it more explicit, because I know you guys appreciate when names are named:
Battle Mage -
2175, Pooky -
2222, Bell -
3216, Titus -
3218.
Also notable is
3223 from SirCakez.
-----
Sircakez had no artifacts, so whoever he checked (which he could have lied about, in the case of unflipped scum partners) had none, or he used them and we never noticed. I don't believe anybody has claimed to have had their artifacts taken from them.
Of note, Prism claimed to have sent an artifact to Bork on night 0, yet scum had little interest.
2069 is bork asking for the pr to be used on himself, maybe it would be too on-the-nose if it was stolen away.
Related to the above, wasn't there somebody who was calling for an artifact mass claim? But I can't find it.
And speaking of his claim, I was right in
2038.
The people who argued similarly were:
Pooky -
2002
LLD -
2005
Tammy -
2024 + claim
sangres -
2012
Titus -
2051
MathBlade -
2066
The players who were wrong, and were arguing that his claim or play was towny, or that he should be kept alive, are:
Prism -
2031
Spiffeh -
2033
Bell -
2046 (but he votes for Sircakez in
2055)
bork -
2060,
2064
-----
borkjerfkin analysis:
I suspect that people are going to come into this day and point fingers at borkjerfkin. It makes sense.
In post
2570 he posts a reads list with myself, Titus, DGB at the bottom. Two of those are wrong for sure, I'm leaning wrong on Titus as well based on associatives with scum.
His explanation for the Spiffeh vote is that he entered the day wanting to push himself. While this is technically true, Spiffeh also came in swinging at myself and Titus. This isn't a scumread, just a criticism of his narrow-minded play at this point.
The above point and
3406 makes me think not scum with with Spiffeh.
3677 and
3680 and
3704 feels unaligned with SirCakez
I agree that Titus doesn't look like scum here.
The move to notscience doesn't really detract from this enough to make me want to eliminate here.
Spiffeh analysis:
I talk about it above, the mastina hammer is negative points. The posturing after is a lot of negative points. Everything he's pushed thus far looks worse in light of what we know now.
I'm not an advocate of moonlogic vca but it's pretty plain to see that his movements this game have been scummy; trying to protect scum at nearly every opportunity. He's open wolfing in every aspect except 'tone' and we need to get him out of here today.
My analysis before this point was unbiased by the way, Spiffeh just really does stand out as scummy in most of these places.
Battle Mage analysis:
He claimed miller on day 2
3483 is poor analysis on his part; not admitting it looks bad because someone else knows you got it.
He votes for Titus in
3294, then dives into a conversation about whether someone who received an artifact was lying, then calls Cakez scum before eventually voting him for unclear reasons, then last minutes tries to get the notscience wagon going.
It's notable that he has about as many posts as me but I'm the one being labeled as "inactive and disinterested" with no mention of him from Bell.
GreyIce/NotScience analysis:
This slot was legitimately scummy. I'm just going to point to some posts I see as bad:
2260 - Sircakez was scum so this was wrong
2270 - Scummy fanning of flames
2274 - Scummy backing off before angering LLD while not helping with the artifact vote
2285 - A Pooky vote is scum motivated here, and probably wrong
2404 - Hard defense of SirCakez. Pushing a counterwagon.
2405 - Easy stance to take and he's making a show of it
2617 - Bad argument and I feel like we learn a lot.
2653 - Prism is onto something here.
Up to this point, this slot is meh at best, can easily be scum at worst.
Notscience comes in and pushes for Sircakez at a time where it mattered which is town points.
-----
Other quick thoughts (not analysis):
Pooky is probably town, and I say we send the artifact there today
Prism is still probably town
Bell is weird, there are a lot of things I didn't like above from Bell in my unbiased look above even though I haven't thought it was him this game. He is tunneling on Math, and I'm not sure that that is correct at this point.
Tammy can't be written off as town for their claim; remember that this claim came out when the two wagons were both on scum, so even if sort of cc'd SirCakez, it can't be ruled out that it was an act.
