Mafiascum.net

uhhh lol \

disregard that post i fatfingered the send button somehow. gimme like an hour and i'll have it properly drawn up, still rereading

In post 3970, clidd wrote:@Lemon

Assuming that your elimination occurs today, do you have final reads?

We still have enough time to go over things here.

In post 3945, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:what do you think?

I think I agree with.this. but I'm probably just bias in the fact that I think there's 1 active claim and 1 used claim in the PRs as scum anyway.

In post 3960, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:also if Lemons flips as something like scum rolecop then we know we dont have a scum roleblocker and koba is guranteed lying

The traitor can still have a RB power. So it doesn't set Dk in stone but this is actually a very good point that I over looked.
I guess it's the same with a Clidd flip of a gun role outside of RB or Goon as well.

In post 3967, InsidiousLemons wrote:VFP, andres, osuka, anya, pooky

keep in mind though i don't believe there's more than one scum in here to begin with, so it's a bit misleading to put them in a linear order since everyone after VFP is at least a townlean. i wrote out my reasons so i have them on standby when you want 'em. i assume you don't want them yet because you don't want some of us piggybacking off of others, which i guess makes sense

Thats fine, I'm not looking for justification here really. It's mainly the top name I'm interested but the rest helps.

In post 3968, Asteria wrote:Can you explain again why clidd and lemons can't be a pair?

You have a mistake in my pairing. I think DK is town because of mech. I think the scum are clidd and lemons. That's why I'm interested in the above. If I'm wrong then it's clidd and DK

Osuka, Anya, Andre, Pooky, VFP

Of course they can be, I just don't see both scum calling out late like that as scum.
I also find it hard to pair Clidd and Lemons directly to Anya, and part on my thinking is Lemons get antsy on Anya getting votes.
Clidd seems willing enough on Lemons and Lemons is voting Clidd as well giving reason why over asteria. I don't think scum want to lim their own today and want to actively get a wrong target here. Dk would be an easy push to gain traction on if both Lemons and Clidd were scum.
If this was ever the case though, then Clidd is a traitor and maybe saw his buddy getting questioned and panicked. This would explain why Lemons is okay voting with Clidd but originally Clidd was aiming for asteria.

I think I have both yours and Lemons slightly wrong so I will amend accordingly once I have the rest of the information.

okay readslist take two

note: i go more in-depth on my mechanical analysis of the gun pool in 3776. my opinions on this subject have not changed since then, except where superseded by this post.

(2 scum):

: by play, this is a difficult read to make. the initial claim does still stick out to me as strange, even with the knowledge that koba pulls claim fuckery more often than a lot of players. a lot of their emotional reactions to things read as genuine to me, and i think (my perception of) a low incidence of faked emotion is mild town AI. their shot at VFP seems to follow a towny thought process: asteria is likely scum made likelier by the knowledge koba has of their own role in relation to the other guns -- but to be safe and to avoid wasting a shot on the person who was already the NK, you don't shoot at the claimed PR, you shoot at their partner. this tracks for me, and the folks calling it a scummy shot are being a bit opportunistic imo. the rest of their play goes back and forth between towny and scummy -- upon reflection, while i don't love their ISO, it was an overstep to say in 3776 that i "abhor" their posting history. the reason i think koba is town is largely mechanical reasons and PoE: it makes sense for there to be a vig in the game, no one has cc'd, and vig is a risky claim to make as scum. my scumreads on asteria and clidd factor into this slightly, but a lot of my PoE for who is scum in the gun pool is solidified by my mechanical confidence that koba is town.

: the second most likely to be scum, and my personal pick for an elim today. part of the reason comes from the knowledge of my own role -- i don't think d1 detective/n2 rolecop/gunsmith is nearly strong enough. as i've said before, it's strongly suspect to me that salsa wouldn't reveal their N1 check info. salsa's D1 and early D2 play also just generally doesn't strike me as coming from a town PR mentality. i could see most of it coming from a VT mentality, and that's where i was leaning before we got some more mechanical info, but clidd's claim destroys that possibility. there is a point to be made that the end of 1539 could indicate "has-a-gun" mentality in that they took pooky's 2-gun claim so strongly, but 1677 seems to negate it. from my 3776:

In post 3776, InsidiousLemons wrote:there's almost nothing to go off of D2 (i.e., after she would have checked you [editor's note: pooky]), but does 2489 really strike you as possible from a salsa who

knows

you didn't kill anyone the previous night? and does a salsa with this partially-absolving information on you, who was suspicious enough of you on D1 to emphatically state "you're scum!" (1524), withhold it the next day? it's almost unthinkable. i could see a universe where clidd skimmed salsa's iso for a player she pushed D1 and decided to claim something modest based off of that. the meagre nature of the claim, the safety of claiming an innocent result on an already-conftown player, and the perceived boldness/foolishness of this claim coming from scum could easily be enough to convince clidd to make this play.

this makes up the bulk of my case. clidd seems like a player who knows what he's doing, and i don't think people should judge the boldness of his claim to be as town-indicative as they do. the last thing i want to say is that clidd's interactions with asteria from 153-155 read as distancing to me. i think scum!clidd asteria won't be the elim today because of the likelihood that town!asteria will be the NK, which is why he's comfortable initiating a push. he even takes the opportunity to cast suspicion on Dk for sheeping him before deciding that it looks like an asteria elim won't happen after all.

: as i've said, their initial claim when confronted with a GS check felt like scum floundering, and their interactions with VFP leak a fake taste in my mouth -- like aspartame, to get anya-esque -- especially immediately after the claim. their ISO reads as a whole lot of posting to post. they take up lots of space on the page to pad out their post history, but beneath the surface it's heavily skewed towards IIoA. see 3776 for more mechanical details, but i don't think a non-con neo coexists with an N2 rolecop in this setup. PoE also indicates to me that this slot is likely scum because i'm reading koba as town.

: fatfingered the submit button and ruined his fuckin joke --> policy lim

(1 scum)

i'll be honest and say that the reasoning i "wrote out" in 3967 were little more than jot notes, and i'm gonna recant the ordering from that post. i took a minute or two to think about what my gut feelings and memories of each player were, slapped em into an order and hit post before heading to work so i wouldn't get prodded (you'll notice it was posted 13 minutes before my prod timer would have expired). yeah, this wasn't a great idea, but i'd rather sheepishly admit that i took my birthday off from this game and decided to do a bald-faced prod-dodge , rather than trying to defend a gut ordering of the VT pool when i have the opportunity to do a better analysis. with that said:

: conf-VT via N2 check

: his aggressiveness and toxicity are hard to ignore, but as i've said before, i think not ultimately AI either way. i get a similar feeling as with andres that his thought process is organic, and he hasn't made any scummy leaps of logic or particularly opportunistic pushes this game, from my point of view. he's been a little sparser in his posting recently (he claims due to work, and i see no reason to disbelieve this), and i disagree with his logic occasionally, but his mentality seems decently town to me. bonus points for never jumping on the STD wagon, as far as i can see

: andres has been a solid townlean to me for pretty much the whole game -- he's gotten off on the wrong track sometimes, but overall he really seems to be a townie trying to figure his way through the game from an unbiased standpoint. he's good at considering alternate angles and motivations for different actions, and while from scum these might feel forced, from andres they mostly strike me as organic. 3407, while incorrect, comes to mind as a relatively recent example of this kind of posting. he sometimes gets thinking in a direction, posts his way through it, then retracts and rethinks before even being challenged when his conclusions don't match the facts. this indicates a natural and town-minded way of thinking and playing to me, rather than the more metered and calculated approach one might expect from scum.

: while her ISO is mostly consistent with her town meta, anya really isn't doing a whole lot this game and tends to avoid making strong accusations or crafting complex theories. it's worth noting that she was on both the STD and T3 wagons, but the way she hammered STD is weird coming from scum. (but maybe that was the point?) if asteria or VFP flip green, i think it's most likely you find scum here.

: a lot of my read on this slot is based on the idea that vfp's reaction test in 2566 was faked, which i still believe to be true. there is partner equity between vfp and asteria, and vfp's play in this game has generally felt focused on self-defense and looking for convenient pushes rather than looking for scum. i actually think their posting has gotten a bit better more recently, but overall i'm not impressed. asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP doesn't seem to agree. possibly trying to cover for finalscum!clidd in the case where asteria flips red and vfp is next?

@Lemon

Just as an imagination exercise, how would your reads adapt to the town!Clidd scenario?

In post 3979, InsidiousLemons wrote:asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP doesn't seem to agree.

So scum decide to push each others wagons (as the second votes) without attempting for a different wagon in the PRs?
Why is it strange that I don't agree with this in particular considering others also aren't thinking a different direction?

This part of the comment is just wierd, and you were doing yourself a favour until this point.

if the town team was clidd/lemons this is like the weakest town pr pool ever

Impossible to happen or very unlikely? ^

I was judging him by play, not considering synergy of roles.

it depends how much datisi hates me i guess

how did he know i would replace into the townside :<

t'was a cunning trap

<3 you dats

Hum.

I think that Lemon's wallpost was potentially emulated from an informed perspective that tried to show itself as uninformed. I don't sympathize with the thought process.

And the timing in which it emerged reflected me as an effort that seem to sought something in return and not an expression of reads genuinely concerned with gamesolve, regardless of whether the slot was eliminated or not.

In post 3938, VFP wrote:As a whole Dk feels like the right option here as they are linked 3 of 4 to be scum.

you have dk paired with 3 other possible scum. doesn't that make it the worst elimination in terms of information gain, since the entropy is only minimally decreased? if you have a lemons flip, for example, then your pool is smaller than it would be if you had a koba flip. how did you get to this point in your thought process?

In post 3938, VFP wrote:

@Pooky / Anya / Osuka / Andre

Can you confirm your 2 favoured scum PRs?

asteria and clidd

In post 3944, clidd wrote:Oh, and just to contextualize my activity level, I can vary a lot in the sense of effort from game to game. It's conscious.

Not that I necessarily get tired, but I like to approach games in different ways. It isn't AI.

scumposting

My guess is that it was an attempt to suggest a reevaluation of the consensus that was being formed on his elimination (probably to repel it).

Something like "hey, look at how descriptive is my reasoning, I'm trying really hard to find who is scum"

And this was "hey, look, I don't have a PT to post" ^

In post 3990, clidd wrote:I think that Lemon's wallpost was potentially emulated from an informed perspective that tried to show itself as uninformed. I don't sympathize with the thought process.

elaborate

he says a lot of what i've been saying since like the third page, but then again he's also been saying most of that since the third page. we've largely agreed and that's not why i think you're much more likely to be scum than lemons here. can you point to examples of what you think is a fabricated thought process?

Lemon + Asteria + Osuka is my solve.

VOTE: InsidiousLemons

Maybe I could be wrong about Osuka, but I do think that he's more scummy than the rest of the VT pool.

That's something for later anyways.