Mini 197- Points Mafia; Game over!

[armlx]

I'm having some trouble finding a replacement for Ygg, but I don't want to simply mod kill him this late in the game. I am sorry for the inconvenience, I hope I can figure something out soon. The other option I have been debating is simply putting the game into stasis until Ygg gets back, but that would not be fun for you guys.

[MeMe]

It'd be funner than a replacement.

[armlx]

Very well, I guess it seems like the best option.

The game will be on temporary freeze until Ygg gets back (presumably the 14th). I apologize for the inconvenience. Crola will be the mod when we return.

[Crola]

I think I'm supposed to lock it for now.

[Crola]

Sorry for the delay guys, MeMe sucked out my modding powers with a vacuum and I forgot.
We're back on schedule.

[Crola]

I can't find the last vote count so all votes have been officially nullified for this day. Please re-vote to have it count.

[MeMe]

I don't think there were any votes to count today.

Could everyone post a "here" so we know we've got full participation?

[CoolBot]

I'm here now

[Yggdrasil]

I'm back from vacation. Sorry for making you all wait for two weeks. I am re-reading the thread and will have a post comming shortly.

[Yggdrasil]

... or not so shortly.

CoolBot, it is true that in the beginning of the game I argued against the existence of an SK. I'll quote that post for you:

As a general rule, I don't assume a second killer unless there are two kills in a night or some other good reason to believe so. The hatchet part to me is just flavor.

As promised, when two kills showed up, I began to believe in the theory of an SK:

If we do have an SK, I find it somewhat odd that his/her kill did not show up until now. However, I would also hesitate to attribute Nai's death to a vigilante since that's a very risky kill for a vig to make; had Nai not been mafia, the mafia would have won (assuming three mafia). For once, I will say that the flavor of the kill also strongly indicates a serial killer.

Right now, I believe we do have an SK and that the SK is responsible for Nai's and Thesp's death.

In response to Stewie's comment about me not saying much during the game, I will admit that I didn't post very frequently. However, I feel that I was fairly straightforward on who I thought was suspicious. Stewie, on the other hand, didn't seem to argue very strongly for or against anyone during the first few days, hence my comment about his lack of participation. It's not the lack of posts that concerns me, it's the lack of content relevant to his suspicions.

Right now, I don't really have much of a decision to make. CoolBot is definitely not responsible for Thesp's death. I also find it highly unlikely that MeMe is the killer either. Given CoolBot's investigation of MeMe on night 3, she cannot be the SK (since we know the SK killed on night 3). Since I think that the SK is responsible for Thesp's death, MeMe is also not a good candidate for Thesp's killer. Since I know that I am not Thesp's killer, that leaves only Stewie left as the killer.

Of course, for MeMe and CoolBot, the choice is between Stewie and me. First, to address MeMe's argument, I don't think we should lynch on the basis of which lynch is safest. If you're assuming that we're going to lynch incorrectly in the first place, then you're pretty much just admitting defeat. Since draws usually go to the anti-town roles, it seems likely that all sittuations would end in a town loss (even though, technically the SK/mafia couldn't kill you and you couldn't kill the SK/mafia).

CoolBot, as MeMe mentioned, Stewie also argued against the existence of an SK and he continues to do so. For example, recently he posted:

Although I understand why her investigation clears her, I would think that mafia and sk (if any) alike would get some kind of reward (in the form of points) for skipping a kill. However, right now I doubt anyone is a sk (but I am still open to the possibility).

I'm running out of time so I'll try to post more later.

[Stewie]

I think coolbot is suspicious of you for not arguing against the existance of a sk.

What makes you think that MeMe did not kill Thesp?

Right now I am certain that either Ygg or MeMe is scum. I would feel more confortable letting MeMe live today.

[MeMe]

Stewie, what do you mean you're more comfortable letting me live? I thought I was your top preference for a lynch. Is that a typo? If not, what's changed your mind?

[Yggdrasil]

I think coolbot is suspicious of you for not arguing against the existance of a sk.

I would have a hard time believing Nai's death was due to a vig. Of those who could have vig killed Nai (SpeedyKQ, Pheobus, Thesp, Coolbot, Meme, Yggdrasil, Stewie), we can eliminate Phoebus (since he's mafia), and us four because no one claimed responsibility for killing Nai. That leaves Speedy or Thesp as our possible vigs. As MeMe pointed out, Thesp said:

Well, crud. Most likely we have 2 mafia and an SK left, if the typical numbers are present in this game. Mass claim time?

Which would be a strange thing to say if he were the vig. Therefore, it is reasonable to exclude him from our list of possible vigilantes.

That leaves Speedy, but it makes no sense for SpeedyKQ to vig kill. Why?

1) A wrong vig kill could have lost the game.
Going into night 3, we had 8 alive. Assuming the normal 3 scum left, we would have been left with 7 alive on day 3. However, if you add an erroneous vig kill into the equation, you have six alive with three scum (i.e. a loss). It just seems too risky of a kill to make unless he was completely sure that Nai was scum. But...

2) SpeekyKQ could not have been completely sure that Nai was scum.
From his death scene, we know Speedy had invulnerability to most night kills. If we are to assume he was also a vig, that would put him at 14 points. To assume he had an investigative ability (lets say he bought backup cop and got the cop ability from mlaker) puts him at 19 points. I find it highly doubtful that he could have gotten that many points. 14 maybe, but not 19.

That said, I can think of a logical reason why Speedy would have vig killed. Speedy probably noticed one-shot vig was not a restricted ability, and that the mafia could obtain one-shot vig. Therefore, with 8 alive on night 3, he could have assumed the mafia would use their kill plus the one-shot vig kill to end the game. In order to prevent this from happening, Speedy took a shot at the most suspicious person available: Nai.

So, yes, there is a case for either argument. Personally, I think there's an SK because of the flavor of the kill. I do not think a pro-town vigilante would mince up his victims and place him in ziplock bags. This kill seems much more consistent with a serial killer (though an argument like this does get dangerously close to trying to outguess the mod). I do agree that the opening post doesn't really support the existence of an SK through its various references to the mafia, but that could just be an oversight on the part of the mod.

What makes you think that MeMe did not kill Thesp?

By CoolBot's investigation (post 370) we know that MeMe stayed put night 3. That eliminates her from being a serial killer. You also claimed to have blocked Phoebus night 3. So, in order for MeMe to be part of the mafia, Nai must have been the killer on night 3. Therefore, it is unlikely that MeMe is part of the mafia just looking at it that way. Plus, MeMe doesn't seem scummy to me. I would consider her a possible SK if not for CB's investigation, but there are better candidates for probable mafia.


I just thought of something. Lets assume I am the sole remaining killer. What do you guys lose if you don't lynch me?

1) We lynch Stewie
MeMe protects CoolBot. I can't kill anyone because CB is doc-protected and MeMe is invulnerable to night kills. Since "the mafia can only buy an ability once" (opening post), we don't have to worry about another unstoppable kill (unless SK has access to those abilities as well and I'm the SK).

2) We lynch MeMe
Stewie can block me, prevent my kill, and be sure that I'm mafia/SK tomorrow.

3) If we somehow decide to lynch CoolBot, I'll be blocked and all my targets will be protected from night kills.

I'm not sure how this works out if we assume two killers left, but if you believe we have one killer left, then I've pretty much already lost if I am the sole remaining killer.

[MeMe]

I just thought of something. Lets assume I am the sole remaining killer. What do you guys lose if you don't lynch me?

1) We lynch Stewie
MeMe protects CoolBot. I can't kill anyone because CB is doc-protected and MeMe is invulnerable to night kills.

If you're the killer, the actuality would be that you'd hit CoolBot with both your vig kill and scum kill, thereby winding up in a two-player endgame. So, when you leave out the fact that you've claimed one-shot vigilante, that one seems logical. But we

can't

forget about that...and I think it's really weird that you seem to expect us to.

2) We lynch MeMe
Stewie can block me, prevent my kill, and be sure that I'm mafia/SK tomorrow.

If it were between you and me, sure. But it's between you and Stewie for me (and, I think, CoolBot). Even suggesting this when you've said that you can't see me or CoolBot as the killer looks hinky. I mean, lynching me means that, if you're telling the truth, Stewie's the killer and the one protector is out of the game.

3) If we somehow decide to lynch CoolBot, I'll be blocked and all my targets will be protected from night kills.

No-lynch makes more sense than CoolBot-lynch.

[CoolBot]

(i.e. a loss)

False. Vigs save.

[MeMe]

mid-post

[CoolBot]

CoolBot, as MeMe mentioned, Stewie also argued against the existence of an SK and he continues to do so.

What's your point?

[Yggdrasil]

I thought you were attacking me on the basis that I didn't believe in an SK, so I pointed this out.

[Stewie]

Stewie, what do you mean you're more comfortable letting me live? I thought I was your top preference for a lynch. Is that a typo? If not, what's changed your mind?

From my point of view, it actually doesn't matter much. If we lynch wrong, I can block the other and lynch them the next day. I feel more confortable lynching ygg because if you are scum then you can kill normally. Ygg has the normal kill and the vigi kill, and eventhough I know I can blcok both of them at the same time, I feel more confortable lynching him.

[MeMe]

CoolBot -- how confident are you that we can lynch scum today?

If we

miss

, I think the best we can hope for is a draw: 1) if we lynch Stewie and Yggdrasil's scum, he can kill you tonight by double-targeting you; 2) if we lynch Yggdrasil and Stewie's scum, he can block me and kill you tonight.

I'm trying to work out the benefits of going no-lynch...so far I've come up with

--There will probably be one less person to have to consider
--The killer won't be positive of whom I'm protecting
--We'll have more information due to night action reports

We should still have a game tomorrow even if there's a kill (I protect wrong or, if Stewie's good, he blocks wrong)...and I don't think there should be more than one unless 1) we have both mafia and SK left (which I consider to be ridiculously unlikely) or 2) Stewie's the killer and Yggdrasil vigges someone else or 3) Yggdrasil's the killer and is able to vig one of you and kill the other because both Stewie and I chose wrong. All of those are unlikely, in my opinion.

What do you think, CoolBot? Better to just lynch today and hope for the best or does no-lynch look smarter? I get less sure about how to vote every time one of them posts.

[CoolBot]

I thought you were attacking me on the basis that I didn't believe in an SK

The opposite, actually.

Better to just lynch today

[MeMe]

Why is it better?

[CoolBot]

Double scum kill.

[MeMe]

So...you're saying you believe strongly enough that Yggdrasil's the scum and that he should be lynched today? That's the way I'm interpreting "double scum kill."

[CoolBot]

Either could have.