Stewie wrote:I think coolbot is suspicious of you for not arguing against the existance of a sk.
I would have a hard time believing Nai's death was due to a vig. Of those who could have vig killed Nai (SpeedyKQ, Pheobus, Thesp, Coolbot, Meme, Yggdrasil, Stewie), we can eliminate Phoebus (since he's mafia), and us four because no one claimed responsibility for killing Nai. That leaves Speedy or Thesp as our possible vigs. As MeMe pointed out, Thesp said:
Thesp (Post #251) wrote:Well, crud. Most likely we have 2 mafia and an SK left, if the typical numbers are present in this game. Mass claim time?
Which would be a strange thing to say if he were the vig. Therefore, it is reasonable to exclude him from our list of possible vigilantes.
That leaves Speedy, but it makes no sense for SpeedyKQ to vig kill. Why?
1) A wrong vig kill could have lost the game.
Going into night 3, we had 8 alive. Assuming the normal 3 scum left, we would have been left with 7 alive on day 3. However, if you add an erroneous vig kill into the equation, you have six alive with three scum (i.e. a loss). It just seems too risky of a kill to make unless he was completely sure that Nai was scum. But...
2) SpeekyKQ could not have been completely sure that Nai was scum.
From his death scene, we know Speedy had invulnerability to most night kills. If we are to assume he was also a vig, that would put him at 14 points. To assume he had an investigative ability (lets say he bought backup cop and got the cop ability from mlaker) puts him at 19 points. I find it highly doubtful that he could have gotten that many points. 14 maybe, but not 19.
That said, I can think of a logical reason why Speedy would have vig killed. Speedy probably noticed one-shot vig was not a restricted ability, and that the mafia could obtain one-shot vig. Therefore, with 8 alive on night 3, he could have assumed the mafia would use their kill plus the one-shot vig kill to end the game. In order to prevent this from happening, Speedy took a shot at the most suspicious person available: Nai.
So, yes, there is a case for either argument. Personally, I think there's an SK because of the flavor of the kill. I do not think a pro-town vigilante would mince up his victims and place him in ziplock bags. This kill seems much more consistent with a serial killer (though an argument like this does get dangerously close to trying to outguess the mod). I do agree that the opening post doesn't really support the existence of an SK through its various references to the mafia, but that could just be an oversight on the part of the mod.
Stewie wrote:What makes you think that MeMe did not kill Thesp?
By CoolBot's investigation (post 370) we know that MeMe stayed put night 3. That eliminates her from being a serial killer. You also claimed to have blocked Phoebus night 3. So, in order for MeMe to be part of the mafia, Nai must have been the killer on night 3. Therefore, it is unlikely that MeMe is part of the mafia just looking at it that way. Plus, MeMe doesn't seem scummy to me. I would consider her a possible SK if not for CB's investigation, but there are better candidates for probable mafia.
I just thought of something. Lets assume I am the sole remaining killer. What do you guys lose if you don't lynch me?
1) We lynch Stewie
MeMe protects CoolBot. I can't kill anyone because CB is doc-protected and MeMe is invulnerable to night kills. Since "the mafia can only buy an ability once" (opening post), we don't have to worry about another unstoppable kill (unless SK has access to those abilities as well and I'm the SK).
2) We lynch MeMe
Stewie can block me, prevent my kill, and be sure that I'm mafia/SK tomorrow.
3) If we somehow decide to lynch CoolBot, I'll be blocked and all my targets will be protected from night kills.
I'm not sure how this works out if we assume two killers left, but if you believe we have one killer left, then I've pretty much already lost if I am the sole remaining killer.