Newbie 1351: Hyrule's Under Attack.. Interesting..-GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

damn it I was going to bed.

[fferyllt]

fwiw I am following your logic chains.

[fferyllt]

good morning and revenus/GiF I think.

[fferyllt]

mac pushed but didn't vote iirc.

Mac also picked up a piece of the case that GM built for me being scum, argued it for a bit and voted me. He was gone for a few days and then unvoted after I rebutted the argument. There really wasn't much appetite for my lynch, which didn't make it worth pursuing maybe.

I could probably get behind a mac wagon, after I actually...you know...get some sleep and think about it with a fresh brain.

[fferyllt]

It was such a bizarrely terrible and poorly formed case that I took it for terribad town reasoning. and she's been in my null/null-town pile ever since. But, it's on my revisit list, and I have reread that part of the thread periodically. I just can't quite get my head around a scum player putting so much effort into it and not coming up with a more concise and persuasive case.

[fferyllt]

Also it's been a while that Mac stopped posting, isn't it?

VOTE: Mac

I'm rolling with PoE.

I have a pretty good town vibe re ineffective.

Your vote is L-1

I want to hear from GM and Mac, but I'm quite willing to hammer ---> ie

intent to hammer

.

[fferyllt]

GiF replaced into a slot that looked really townish.

Explain.

You disagree that Revenus looked townish? I thought so, and I thought GiF's posts upon replacing also looked townish.

[fferyllt]

agreed. Someone want to unvote to avoid derpiness?

[fferyllt]

GiF replaced into a slot that looked really townish.

Explain.

You disagree that Revenus looked townish? I thought so, and I thought GiF's posts upon replacing also looked townish.

I felt Rev was Null at best. I do not see where you found a Townread on him. On GIF, sure, but on Rev?


I really want to hear from VE right now.

His posts all had a town feel to them. I especially liked the post where he raked me over the coals for thinking that Deras could be a sleeper, pretending mafia naivety, but since doing something close to that was my modus in my first MS game, I think I'll always have that possibility in mind with new-ish players who show understanding of fundamentals but act a little uncertain.

You and Eye seemed to doubt Revenus and I took that under advisement. The stuff ineffective brought up re Rev's Deras vote was interesting, though. I focused on you during that wagon's development.

[fferyllt]

Mac's reaction to the bandwagon has a townish feel to me.

[fferyllt]

day 2 claims? I dunno, seems a little early. I feel like I can scumhunt without that info for now, and I'd like for scum to be in the dark as much as possible both in terms of what town PRs are in play and who has them. day 3 would be a different story. with potentially 2 rolecop views along with kills, scum will already have things narrowed down, and the knowledge of what happened when at night will help town.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, D2 is way too early for claims, especially with no scumflips. I was just in a game that Town made hopelessly confused with a D2 massclaim and lost.

If D3 is LyLo, it could potentially be appropriate then. If D3 is not LyLo, then it probably wouldn't..

depends. town basically lost my first newbie game on day 3 when the JK didn't out her targets after my kill went missing on night 2. Day 4 was LYLO, but with the JK night killed and no breadcrumbs, I wasn't in the frame. my scum partner had a lot of suspicion on him, but we managed a quickhammer when a town player put a vote down on another townie.

[fferyllt]

I'm less than halfway through the game. reading it in context I'm seeing a vrey different Mac from this game.

[fferyllt]

ton of buddying from GM in that game. Which reminds me of the cross-accusations of buddying between GM and Mac in this game.

[fferyllt]

It started with GM in 698

More in 869.

Says she's losing her town read in part for buddying in 914

Mac responds with counteraccusation in 919

Mac says it's a false accusation in 952

GM reiterates it's buddying in 1100

Mac counters 1105 "good player" vs "competent"

GM says the difference is timing and situation in 1124

GM says that Mac mediating the early-ish argument between her and me, while taking GM's side was also a form of buddying in 1288 and later 1291points to post 693 as a major example?


I need to do more research...I don't remember quite how they mended fences.

[fferyllt]

Ineffective, one question. Have you read GM's early case on me in 137?

[fferyllt]

yeah....wrong spoilered post. this is it. 195

[fferyllt]

It actually looks pretty similar to his case in 109 of the thread i linked. Doesnt change my mind a bit

109 was one of the cases I looked at when I meta'd GM after she posted the case on me. I thought it was more succinct and persuasive than that huge ramble she posted in this thread. I think my vote actually surprised her, though.

p edit yeah that's where I am at. I'm curious to see what VE makes of the last day.

VOTE: goodmorning

[fferyllt]

I think things can wait until you have time to catch up on a larger screen than a phone.

[fferyllt]

it seemed too obvious to be a scum tactic. I am not used to playing with people who don't know my game better than I do. I still don't trust the obvtown reads people develop on me here.

[fferyllt]

^^ That's L-1

[fferyllt]

If she's town and if those are her scum picks then it doesn't matter where on the wagon you and Z are, she should state them. It's consistent with where her reads have been since late day 1.

[fferyllt]

Guys really quick --- has gm made a push that you find to be with good reason? Or cast doubt on anything that was significantly scummy? Or has every post of his pointing fingers at other payers been based on actions that have no actual merit?

This is incredibly moronic considering most pushes are by nature something of a matter of opinion.

This rebuttal is pretty bad.

- "with good reason"
- "cast doubt on"[something] scummy"
- "based on actions that have no actual merit"

Opinions have basis, and "with good reason" is a pretty critical basis. The other questions evaluate basis too.

[fferyllt]

oddly enough, although I analyze the crap out of game stuff it's almost all gut-initiated. It takes a long track record of accurate gut before other players trust overtly gut-based play that doesn't include analysis.

p-edit GM is talking about a post of AlexisTay3's that pinged for me. It looked like AlexisTay3 was backing down in order to avoid conflict, since he commented that he hadn't expected GM's hostility in reply. AA9 replaced in for him. That ping kept me concerned about the slot, but on its own wasn't a basis for voting. Conflict avoidance, though often scummy in an otherwise assertive player, has be taken in the context of the player's overall style and personality.

[fferyllt]

mac do you believe GM's claim?

[fferyllt]

Thats not the fucking point. We have no cc, and

I personally have no reason not to believe GM's claim.

I wish your reason was a little stronger than this somehow. GM hasn't given me a strong reason to believe her claim. The sprinkling of "keep" in her posts is a point, but when I'm scum I sometimes set up claims game days in advance of making them.

she's positing that Z7 and Eye/Ineffective are the scum team, in which case Z7 would have been on his own to decide the scum night actions on night 1. Eye didn't log in again between his last post and daybreak day 2. Deras strikes me as an odd kill for Z7 to pick. Z7 could have specified that Eye was doing the kill even though Eye had flaked,

[fferyllt]

she used the word "keep" 15 times before role claiming. She used "keeping" once. 263 posts total.

My posts have 7 occurrances of "keep", "keeps" etc. prior to her claim. 426 posts total.

[fferyllt]

In micro 137 GM used the words 4 times in 36 posts.

[fferyllt]

Might be worthwhile. Especially in a game with less than 50 posts, statistical methods are suspect.

[fferyllt]

I don't want to see a hammer yet, btw.

[fferyllt]

You haven't asked for reasons why I thought gm was town, regardless i still don't think we should be lynching a possible PR.

The more you post, the more i wonder if you are scum. some seriously poor posts coming from you if you are town.

you shouldnt have to be asked to explain why someone is town when you are defending them from a lynch--- should be second nature if your intentions are geniune--- using the PR reason is a cop-out plain and simple--- I REPEAT, IF YOU ARE UNWILLING TO HAMMER A PR CLAIM YOU ARE UNWILLING TO HAMMER SCUM AS SCUM WILL ALWAYS CLAIM PR WHILE BEING LYNCHED IN HOPES OF THE 50% CHANCE HE IS UNCCD OR A CHANCE TO OUT A PR AS HE IS LYNCHED

if i was scum and you were town i wouldnt have unvoted and switched to goodmorning

when you were obviously going to be hammererrrrddddd

Not so obviously IMO.

I had declared intent to hammer.

Don't hammer yet, I haven't read anything other than the last posts. It's not going to be beneficial to hammer me without letting me post my thoughts. It's also the weekend, i haven't been able to post that much over the board lately.

VOTE: GiF

Because that L-1 vote was proper opportunistic. I guess you only see it if you know I'm town but yeah, thinking he's scum now.

Again, would prefer time to post my thoughts because tomorrow will be lylo so hang fire until tuesday at least.

agreed. Someone want to unvote to avoid derpiness?

My post was immediately after Mac's.

[fferyllt]

I haven't gotten to the datamining yet. two games hovering on L-1 atm.

Conventional wisdom is that MS town usually unvotes when a player makes an uncountered PR claim, and waits to see what happens overnight.

Why should we not follow conventional wisdom and look for the other scum today?

pedit - TOO OFTEN! I now make snarly threatening noises when I post intent.

[fferyllt]

in the Ammurica game 6 "keeps" in 116 posts.

[fferyllt]

also if that is truly conventional wisdom im gunna puke--- i could see stalling a questionable lynch due to a pr claim---- i cannot sympathize with stalling a lynch on a total scumbucket because of a pr claim

It was hawked as conventional wisdom in my first newbie game iirc.

a guy I used to play mafia with said that lynching PRs is like crack to scum.

OTOH I recently held a bandwagon together when a scum player fake-claimed in the 11th hour so I'm not exactly a purist.

[fferyllt]

In fact goodmorning is the only person who hasnt had mac in his scummy pile.

well there was all that buddying accusation stuff.

I'm feeling better about Mac.

[fferyllt]

IME "data mining" is a rare term in mafia.

[fferyllt]

I hope to encourage as much rarities as is possible with my noobish status in the hierchy of mafiascum!

It surprised me because it's only ever been used to describe my play (particularly my emphasis on experienced meta) when I've seen it used before. But, I am positive we've never played mafia together elsewhere.

[fferyllt]

hey, can we slow down? I don't think pages of no u posts are going to help move the game forward. At some point VE needs to show up and catch up.

[fferyllt]

hey, you know, sometimes prs claim prs too?

what do you make of the "arrested" breadcrumb since I'm pretty sure some of your case is revolved around "keep" or whatever.

and you didn't answer the questions in #1826

you must have misunderstood GMs post - he never said he breadcrumbed with arrested - he claimed that he was considering it and decided it would be too obvious---- an excuse to use such a comonly used word as a supposed breadcrumb when he never actually even crumbed with it before he claimed pr and merely used. It as something to make him look town WHICH ME AND FFER UNDENIABLY DISPROVED

decided it was to obvious and opted for arrested instead. misrepping now.

I did crumb it, albeit not that well. I have used the word "keep" as often as I could fit it in edgewise (starting in post 23) and in my early example about the Blockbuster (post 98) I was arrested (I thought the phrase "send me to jail" was a wee bit too obvious, even for me).

More likely to be forgetting the specifics than intentionally misrepresenting.

the term "misrepresenting" gets overused in mafia IMO.

[fferyllt]

MS mafia is weird.

[fferyllt]

MS mafia is weird.

Elaborate.

I would not be trying to save my scumbuddy in a circumstance like this if I were scum. I'd take the credit for an epic hammer and mourn the loss quietly on the QT. You and ineffective both assume that it makes sense for scum-Mac to mount a serious defense of GM. Where I have played in the past, it's very unusual for that to happen. Some scum occasionally do it

because[/b it is unexpected. It would be considered a ballsy strategy.

[fferyllt]

well it is a misrep because he's saying GM didn't say that when she did. whether it's delibrate or not is another matter.

This is funny coming from you actually, considering I've called you out several times for misrepresenting my play or arguments and you've argued the opposite - that it wasn't misrepresenting at all.

Good point, but we're in quite a serious situation at the moment so I'd expect all avenues presented to be accurate.

But you are right that it's pot. kettle. black. But misreps like that can lose us the game.

It's true that it's a seroius situation, but ineffective was obviously just about beside himself the last page or so.

[fferyllt]

In case of my impending death, my top scumreads are Z and Fe in that order. I think VE is obvTown, though I hesitate to say it in those words. ff also seems likely to be Town at this point.

Okay, she does explicitly say she thinks Z is scum more than EU in this post. However, she then immediately votes EU after D2 begins. So I'm not sure what that means.

Thinking.

Positing that she is the JK, then if someone died, it wasn't Z who killed her.

(leaving aside the issues of Eye flaking and not returning to the site after his last day 1 post, so a Z/Eye scum team would have been Z managing both slots and both night actions on his own, no matter who the killer of record was)

[fferyllt]

Nah JK is fine...in fact I like it more than Doctor as far as protective roles go in that you can play it either offensively

or

defensively. Makes for more interesting games in general imo.

plus once you are down to one scum in a game like this, JK also functions as a half-assed cop.

[fferyllt]

you too, Mac, if we're going to rap.

[fferyllt]

Between the two you prefer Mac is that correct feryl?

Are you assuming that what we're seeing here is scumMac trying to buddy a townJK GM by hard defending her?

I started liking Mac again when he posted on Sunday saying to give him until tomorrow to put his thoughts together for a wrap-up post.

I really haven't seen anything today that counterweights that.

So no, I'm not thinking Mac for lynch right now.

[fferyllt]

I'd be inclined to take a hard look at GiF next, actually.

[fferyllt]

Guys did GM soft anything the first time he was at L-1?

You'd have to be there to feel that, I think. The posts were coming fast and so were the votes. She made it really clear that she wanted someone to post intent before the hammer fell. And she definitely lost her cool in the middle of all that.

So did I.

[fferyllt]

Okay suppose we just buy the claim at face value for now. Where does Mac fall in all this? Hard-defending auto-assuming true claim.

kinda like I hard defend Z on the basis of a bunch of meta that nobody else can evaluate.

Was he auto-assuming true claim? I'll have to reread.

I was led to believe that site meta at least in the newbie games is to take un cc'd claims at face value unless the player is just unbelievably scummy.

ineffective thinks the player is just that, unbelievably scummy.

[fferyllt]

Scum can't have a roleblocker either.

If a player is jailkept, is the player also roleblocked, and is that player notified of it if so?

I was jailkept in my first newbie game. I got a notification that I was unable to perform my role cop action. But, since I also did the night kill that night no kill happened either. I have no idea if people who didn't do night investigations would get a notification.


p-edit welp.

[fferyllt]

He's been here since she role-claimed. His vote is on Mac.

You are not lynched yet...?

No, but I'm going to keep doing final thoughts as the fancy strikes me.

Hopefully I won't be the lynch today

, but I'll probably be the kill tonight.

Explain yourself on this one because it awfully looks like a scumslip.

'cause I see no reason why claimed PR should be worried about getting lynched if he/she's real PR.

[fferyllt]

I've had two games at L-1 today. I'm not multitasking very well now that the other game is active again. I'll tear myself away for a bit.

[fferyllt]

Here is a progression of his posts after he saw the claim. I'm not seeing this as a hard defense of GM qua JK I'm seeing it as a policy of not lynching PRs with no counterclaim.

I don't think we should ever be lynching a PR with no cc. Not today at least. But then there's a chance theres no JK and scumGM has lucked out.

What?

Because I won't lynch a claimed PR, I'm not lynching scum? Where's the sense in that? What if gm is the jk?

So you are saying that I should vote GM on the basis she could be scum claiming PR and not PR claiming PR, and then further add to this by saying if it's not GM, it's me?

this is me being fucking practical, no one has expressed intent to vote gm after she claimed.

Thats not the fucking point. We have no cc, and I personally have no reason not to believe GM's claim.

Mac do you have a reason not to vote GM aside him claiming pr?

I've had a townread on her for most of d2 now, and I still haven't read some of the last few pages prior to gm's claim right now.

Well I'm not but I'd never lynch a claimed PR with no CC regardless. I made the mistake of hammering our cop in my first newbie game.

As it progressed from here, he did the research on "keep", and I think he has a point that some of those posts looked contrived to include a phrase with the word keep.

[fferyllt]

Between the two you prefer Mac is that correct feryl?

Are you assuming that what we're seeing here is scumMac trying to buddy a townJK GM by hard defending her?

I started liking Mac again when he posted on Sunday saying to give him until tomorrow to put his thoughts together for a wrap-up post.

What are you gonna do if he doesn't give us the wrap-up?

I'll have an ugly mood swing.

[fferyllt]

@feryl
I'm inclined to agree that it looks to be more adhering to a policy rather than hard-defending reading like that - but what does that change? Is that MORE likely to come from town than scum? If it's null then what about the rest of his posting leaves you wanting to find other targets?

I still like his post on Sunday when he was at L-1 with intent stated. it seemed to come from a town PoV.

he returned to a vastly changed game and wound up posting here about the GM wagon instead of socializing or whatever he had planned for the holiday.

I still want to hear the thoughts he would have shared but it's a new situation and I imagine his thoughts are in transit if he is town. Mine are.

[fferyllt]

I didn't like the Ineffective vote. The GiF vote was interesting, given that it could have been his last input in the game if he'd been hammered.

I"m being waffly as hell. I am not looking forward to more isos but I need to do them.

[fferyllt]

I envy your senses of certainty.

[fferyllt]

also--- ffer.... Im reading up on a completed scumgame of yours because i am trying not to be closed-minded considering the circumstances of this dying wagon... Trying to pick up on some nuances because your play is generally consistant with my ideal of a town player and what it looks like--- a force like that is scurryyyy --- you speak of these people that can meta you but like... I dont get it yet--- there must be something im missing.......

I created a false persona for the game you are talking about. And I played that game only until it ended so I didn't break the persona. My next scum game won't look like that game at all because now I have to play consistently with my known town game.

'also --- im looking into everyone. Im probably going to put most of my effort between games into this one.

also--- im in the process of adapting to forums--- i come from a fast paced environment where extreme reaction tests, and doing things like voting people
that you know are town so that they towntell better-- and pushing with all your effort on one person when you feel like you nailed it... and trolling for the sake of reactions are actually fairly common among high level players,...

I think my pace needs some tinkering and so--- if my tone changes drasticly in the near future please keep that in mind. I am trying to be self aware...

Self-awareness has always been scummy to me so just throwing that out there...

I come from an environment where game days last 12 to 24 hours. I m sure it is not as intense as what you are used to, but the times involved don't allow for all the second guessing that happens in MS games. I'm not sure yet whether lots more time for analysis and second guessing leads to better read accuracy.

[fferyllt]

UNVOTE: GM

[fferyllt]

GiF what's your case on Mac? is it purely PoE?

[fferyllt]

GiF what's your case on Mac? is it purely PoE?

Yes.

PoE puts you and Mac in my frame, with GM on hold for today.

[fferyllt]

Feryl have you found something particularly townie about Mac's responses? You seem oddly resistant all of a sudden, did you make it clear why somewhere I'm not seeing? You say that "nothing counterweights" what he said on Sunday which was "give me time". He's had time and all he's commented on has been the claim - he hasn't really elaborated on who he thinks is scum, or why. Just that in his opinion we shouldn't lynch GM on the basis of her unCC'd claim.

##Unvote

##Vote: Mac

His vote is blatant OMGUS of Ineffective. There's nothing townie in his response in my opinion whatsoever. He isn't interested in lynching scum, he's only interested in lynching people who want to lynch him. Now I want to lynch him. Let's see if I'm now more scummy to him than Ineffective.

seriously I made a fucking case on Ine. none of which was "he voted me." I am pretty fucking interested in lynching scum and I'm pretty sure Ine is scum. Are you even reading?

also I still have to read before I was to get lynched, and have stuff to say about GiF

but Ine has just strolled in and became my strongest scumread for the way he's acting.

please do this.

Are you saying we should lynch GM today? where's the logic in that? WHAT IF SHE IS THE JAILKEEPER?

That's not what he's saying.

[fferyllt]

beetlejuice?

[fferyllt]

day 2, maybe.

[fferyllt]

His AA vote was where I started have a slightly uneasy feeling about GiF. Though I was unhappy with what I thought were the other likely lynches at the time, so I couldn't really fault him. I thought Eye would be where the votes flowed if they flowed off AA. and I had more of a town read on Eye than I did AA by far.

[fferyllt]

@VE Who is "him"? Are you talking about Eye? Or GiF?

[fferyllt]

I thought so, but wasn't sure. tks.

[fferyllt]

So GMwas out of contention at this point?

I just ughh... GIFSpoe is exactly like mine except gifs POE has me in it and vice versa.... Why didnt gif try to puch on mac or GM?

GM and Mac had been in contention earlier, but we had moved on.

[fferyllt]

How do you guys feel about massclaim? I'm starting to get paranoid about GM having so little to say in the face of votes falling off her...that seems like the kind of thing that would spur a townGM into a flurry of activity, not inspire uneasy silence. I want more dataz, and now Inef has me thinking scum are just going to leave her alive if she's town causing us headache tomorrow. I feel like a massclaim will give us something more to work with in this situation. Anyone agree?

It's a 50% chance that the game has only one town PR. I'm a little queasy about the idea but I crave data too.

pedit yeah I know what you mean about feeling empowered as a claimed PR.

pedit 2 maybe.

[fferyllt]

my nightmare scenario is that you two are the scum and have hardcore buddied me. but, I can't for the life of me see Carey and Eye as scumbuddies. Eye didn't look nearly sophisticated enough at mafia to start bussing his scum partner the way he went after Carey. And Carey's replace-out did not look like scum-flake.

[fferyllt]

Nightmare scenario seriously deflated.

[fferyllt]

Let's popcorn this. VE you pick who goes next.

[fferyllt]

feryl you're up...or am I taking that post to be a VT claim?

I'd rather start with someone you have doubts about. If that's me I'll go.

[fferyllt]

I can go after Mac. Would kinda like GiF to go too, though.

[fferyllt]

It's something I automatically do. I'm better after I have a baseline on a player, unless they're fairly new to mafia, in which case I can sometimes spot a PR in my first game with them. That's pretty muddied in environments where all the players are new to me, though.

pedit yeah not pressuring, misdirecting, wifoming scum by subtly deferring to someone I think is VT when town. when scum, I ignore the shit out of PRs until nightfall. Here, all that is still meaningless and useless effort because I don't have a rep (and haven't earned one) for spotting PRs consistently.

[fferyllt]

Okay that makes sense explained that way. It takes a pretty fucking accurate gauge to be effective, but I can see what you're saying.

Yeah it does. I'm not sure my gauge will ever get accurate enough to be as effective in this environment, though I've had a couple of promising sightings here and there.

[fferyllt]

I think so.

[fferyllt]

I'll claim now if you don't want to wait for GiF.

[fferyllt]

I'll claim now if you don't want to wait for GiF.

No- gif first

that's what I'd prefer.

[fferyllt]

My turn now?

[fferyllt]

VT

[fferyllt]

For reasons I stated earlier that basically confirms you as town to me feryl - if you were scum you could have ended this D3 securing a mislynch on both me and GM if GM is town.

Inef doesn't have that luxury because there's a mild amount of suspicion on him and he's not as universally recognized as town as you are...but you're 100% town to me now. No pressure.

If I were scum, I would almost certainly have chosen an easier path than that today.

[fferyllt]

I feeel for Z7. It must seem like the game gets turned on its head every night.

[fferyllt]

I noticed. green is the universal town color, though. I did check the role pms Tracey posted at the top of the thread and noticed the color, but I don't think it's odd that VE used green. I have never gone back to my own role PM to check the color before posting in a mass claim.

[fferyllt]

How do you figure a 15% chance of both claims being true? There's a 50% chance that there are two PRs in any game.

[fferyllt]

paranoia is healthy in mafia, but Z7 the degree to which you're focused on VE appears to be to dangerously exclusive.

[fferyllt]

I'am just paranoid about how this whole mass claim turned out. And because it was made by the player that I suspect most that makes me even more uneasy. And about the 15%. That's the probability that there are jail keeper and doctor in the game. Probability for VisceraEyes claim to be true given goodmornings claim is true is mathematically even smaller. I'am sorry about all this math but I have been doing economical scenario analysis for the past few days and I see probability factors everywhere.

It's quite odd to me that both the role claimants are at the scum end of your meter.

[fferyllt]

will give it a go when I stop being headachy. In a recent game orcinus and I did POE on 3 possible pairs to figure out who couldn't be scum with each other. it worked pretty well, but we had things somewhat narrowed at that point.

[fferyllt]

Revenus/GiF and Mac

Revenus voted Deras (over a comment Deras made about Fropome), Mac agreed about comment (could be scum could be newbtown)

Both encouraged Carey to replace out when he complained about 3 page of thread*

Re the GM/Me kerfuffle Mac took sides, and Revenus distanced (suggested a Carey lynch)

Rev foses ArcAngel for the non-random role assignment assumption, stays on Carey

Mac votes Carey when I unvote ArcAngel after Carey put her at L-1.

Rev had Fropome/Z7 solidly as town. Mac has argued against this off and on, on post 760 he backs away from the Z-wagon that formed after VE joined the game.

After not mentioning Eye at all to speak of besides the thing about Eye saying that statistics supporting AA9 (when they DIDN'T damn it), Mac joins the Eye wagon on late day 1.


GIF pretty seamlessly picks up Rev's town reads with the exception of VE (Rev had him as scum)


Gif and Mac tangle over Deras kill, specifically Mac's post 1414.

GiF and Mac exchange votes. GiF joins the day 2 Mac wagon, and Mac calls it opportunistic

Mac's preferred lynches are GiF and ineffective.

I think there's a mild/weak case for Mac/Rev on a scum team together, Not so sure about GiF/Mac, though I could see scum-GiF deciding Mac's day 2 wagon wasn't salvageable and Mac throwing out a distancing vote with the expectation of being lynched. He's been consistent with his vote since then.


* had to lol. This is the longest Newbie thread on the site by quite a margin and we're still in Day 2

[fferyllt]

My first try was a process test. The summarizing helps me, but I don't know if it's useful for others to read. I could steam that level of analysis down to 4-5 sentences probably if preferred.

[fferyllt]

Mac and Fropome/Z7

There was essentially zero interaction between Mac and Fropome. From Fropome's side this could be scum distancing if his slot is scum. Z7 and Mac began interacting almost from Z7's first posts. Z7 was leaning town on Mac. Mac said he looked somewhat suspicious (post]693[/post] and others. Mac is one of the players that Z7 has consistently interacted with.

Z's vote on VE after a lot of hemming and hawing could be seen as a protective move of Mac, whom VE was voting. Though I would not expect to see this behavior in my home environment, I see people make cases that scum protect/support each other here at MS. It's really a foreign concept to me.

So, it's a weak case for Mac/Z7 as a pairing.

Reading through this iso, I think it gave me enough to also conclude that Z7/VE is not a viable pairing.

Z's focus on VE originally on day 1 could have helped lead to a lynch, I think. His focus since then seems almost like a safety zone - he can dither and rant about VE but not worry about facing the music re a mislynch.

I can't see a case for them being partners.

[fferyllt]

Gah. I really don't have the focus to do this rigorously. Still fighting a headache.

[fferyllt]

Voluntary claims end to skeev me out, personally.

Speaking FMPOV:
If Z is Scum, his partner could be {Ine, ff, VE}
If ff is Scum, her partner could be {Ine, Z}
If Mac is Scum, his partner could be {GIF}
If Ine is Scum, his partner could be {ff, VE, Z}
If VE is Scum, his partner could be {Ine, Z}
If GIF is Scum, his partner could be {Mac}

This list demonstrates a huge wtf to me - not so much about you personally, but about how scum teams play mafia at MS. I have seen logic like this used to support FoSes/votes in other games I've played at MS, and it worried the hell out of me when my scum partner in my first newbie game always had me at the top of his town pile.

If you have me down as a potential partner of ineffective and Z7, then logically I think you should have me as a potential partner with VE too. Why not?

[fferyllt]

Eye/ineffective - Careyhammer/VE

Eye pushed carey to leave the game. I'm vaguely wondering if scum-Carey's partner would want him replaced (Mac, Eye, Rev). This is hard to entertain because Carey's replace-out left me thinking he's town and VE has improved on that read.

Eye/Ineffective - Mac

His read of Mac moved around. I thought the reasons for moving were good, but could also be seen as following town around.

Eye/Ineffective - GiF

Did not like Revenus at first. Moved him up his list. Never interacted directly with GiF

Eye/Ineffective - GM

said GM's case on me was not just bad, but scummy. Thought both of us looked scummy for backing off each other "too quickly". did not like my meta-based reason for backing off.

Eye/Ineffective - VE

really bad reaction to VE. demands he read the thread came off the AA wagon over it. When VE demonstrates working knowledge of thread, he moves to GM "for Deras"? On reread I hate myself for considering him possibly scum over his late day 1 frustration with VE, AA9 and GM.

Ineffective ran through a bunch of wagons quickly. Were any non-starters? I don't think so. deathtunneling on GM - un-cc'd PR but GM has been lazy and sloppy at times.

[fferyllt]

Z7-852 - Mac, GiF
Mac - Z7, GM, maaaaybe GiF
Ineffective - GiF, VE, Z7
VisceraEyes - maybe Ineffective
GuyInFreezer - Z7, Ineffective, GM maaaaybe Mac
goodmorning - Mac, GiF

[fferyllt]

finally some paranoia.

[fferyllt]

I want to see both Mac's and GiF's pairings, actually.

[fferyllt]

She basically killed the momentum on a Mac lynch earlier today too, but on the other hand she was bringing attention to him when he was inactive before that. :/ And anytime she voted Mac it definitely lacked any kind of sincerity or conviction...it seemed to be obligatory like every time.

Kinda want to respond to this. I don't feel like I have a good read on Mac, but PoE puts him in the frame. I've gone nuts looking at prior games trying to get a sense of how his town and scum game differ and I've not come up with anything solid, except that there is a righteous indignation when he's pressured as town that doesn't seem to be there to such an extent as scum. pissy is more how I'd describe him when pressured as scum. His reaction to GiF's vote and his asking for time to post his thoughts with an indication of when that would be possible looked a little townish to me. It's possible that he'd want a chance to drop a wifom bomb as scum before being hammered, but there's always risk of implicating your scum buddy when you do that.

So, by PoE I am willing to vote Mac, but I am not going to have much sense of comfort about it. And I hope I'm right if/when the time comes. It's coming.

I hope I come out of this game with more of a baseline on him. He's not the sort of player I expect to be able to sort via one game/cardflip. Neither is GM for different reasons.

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about voting him again too. I thought I had that put to bed late day 1. I dunno. I wish Fropome was still in that slot. if he was scum I'd have figured it out with more time.

[fferyllt]

Still want to hear from GiF.

[fferyllt]

Mac and Fropome/Z7

There was essentially zero interaction between Mac and Fropome. From Fropome's side this could be scum distancing if his slot is scum. Z7 and Mac began interacting almost from Z7's first posts. Z7 was leaning town on Mac. Mac said he looked somewhat suspicious (post]693[/post] and others. Mac is one of the players that Z7 has consistently interacted with.

This was from last night. I'll have another look, but the thing that stood out to me was that Fropome didn't really interact with Mac. That was a big contrast to Z7 when he joined the game, but the game was further developed at that time.

[fferyllt]

Mac mentions Fropome here. 188 - calls Fropome's infamous post 35 "strangely aggressive".

post 328 Fropome makes a short reply to Mac's quote wall. Was basically a defense of me over the lowhanging newb fruit comment.

From 329:

Mac: Had little until now. Appears to be logicking it out with ffer and I'm happy to see some pressure on her. Though I don't find his case against ffer convincing - due to experience of ffer more than anything - it doesn't come out as as ad-hoc stitch-together the way GM's did.

[fferyllt]

it's pretty close to no interaction at all, which is why I called it "essentially zero interaction".

[fferyllt]

welp. No GiF. I really don't want the game to move forward without his pairings.

[fferyllt]

The current count says that Mac is at L-2 but with 3 votes it's L-1.

VOTE: GiF

Oops, fixed.

[fferyllt]

The current count says that Mac is at L-2 but with 3 votes it's L-1.

VOTE: GiF

Oops, fixed.

why did you just sheep my vote with no thoughts attached again

because I wanted to see what would happen if it looked like there was a genuine choice. Now I am going to read what happened.

[fferyllt]

meh. not much, yet.

[fferyllt]

There is no way that anyone would claim a power role in this point of the game. That just bad reason to declare someone a town.

I think ineffective is talking about the earlier wagon, before the mass claim.

[fferyllt]

interesting.

[fferyllt]

and of course I never did an iso of GiF plus Fropome/Z7.

Maybe there's time before the nightfall post.

[fferyllt]

Fropome's RVS vote was for Revenus. I have meta reason to consider dismissing this as neutral, but still

25 revenus' first post of the game is to ask Fropome for clarification

130 Revenus says he's developing town reads on Eye and me

From 329 where Fropome posts all his reads. Revenus is next to last in the list. gm is last.

Revenus: I haven't given any real attention to him, reading me pure town early indicated he was understanding of the content of my posts about lurking, which followed a question to me, and also pointed out a potential pitfall in the "rule of thumb" I outlined which was also worthwhile (though there is a way to address that, cue the mighty GodKill.

519 Revenus labels one of mac's posts a town post. He did this to a couple of my posts, too. This makes me think that Mac could be town.

602 explains Z7's errant quote-post he made before posting his reads list. First thing about Z7, and it's been a long time since he mentioned Fropome or replied to him. Like, not since the first few days of Day 1.

680 704Revenus defends Fropome

Will go ahead and post this in case twilight ends before I am done.

From Fropome's side this is less mention of Revenus than was the case with Mac, I think.

[fferyllt]

Who was JK'd and who was protected?

[fferyllt]

GM, VE you want to talk about your rationales for you night action choices?

[fferyllt]

Sure. My reasoning for protecting feryllt was...

<3

Why did you think I was a likely kill target?

[fferyllt]

Sure. My reasoning for protecting feryllt was...

<3

Why did you think I was a likely kill target?

You were one of the first to draw attention to GiF (along with Inef later I believe) once the Mac wagon started losing steam. You've been obviously townie all game. You're active to a fault and you're willing to rethink your position in the face of logic.

The better question would be why would you NOT be a likely kill target?

because exposed power roles.

[fferyllt]

Though I geddit that there was a fair chance that one of you would have targeted the other and hunting among the VT players was a kill more likely to go through. And Ineff or I would be good choices in that regard because we're working together, don't have each other in our scum piles, and have both directly influenced most of the bandwagon formations.

[fferyllt]

I was leaning Mac before the day started, with Z7 a distant second.

gambler's fallacy and all, but it squicks me out that my two completed newbie games both had the Doc/JK PR variant.

[fferyllt]

Actually if GM is fake-claiming last scum, that makes 4 more likely...it would be like this in that case.

Nevermind. :/

With jailer roleblocks not being notified this is tricky. We can't confirm whether GM actually jailed someone. So here are our options:

1) Scum fired at Mac. Mac was protected.

2) Mac only remaining scum, jail prevented NK

3) Scum fired at fferyllt, feryl protected.
4) Scum withheld shot.

Am I reading the situation wrong? Is there some other possibility?

I'm more inclined to believe Mac is scum than I am GM is fake-claiming. But I can see it as a possibility and would be willing to explore that option IF Mac flips town.

That's where I am leaning.

[fferyllt]

yeah, purely a numbers thing. but, if we lynch questionable town today, it decreases the hiding places for scum tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

Not only that. We might could get it right today.

[fferyllt]

Due to playing lightning-round mafia at EM, I think Ineff probably has a better understanding of the numbers side of mafia theory. Relying on the numbers to improve chances ignores player skills, though. And IMO scum usually find ways to level things with their kills, and keep the overall level of uncertainty as high as possible.

Today's town is as smart and as experienced as yesterday's town was. That may not be the case tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

This is an interesting trajectory to the L-1 vote on GiF.

GiF's forced content

Spoiler: wall

@GM: I see your points. It makes me want to have a conversation with eye now

Mac's post about "hey I could've framed you" post seems odd to me.

"I could've done it but I didn't!" Line of stuff feels like he's deliberately saying it to distance people from thinking that he might do it.

I don't think Deras wanted me dead, did he?

Regardless, speculating NK's is stupid in my opinion.

I could just as easily accuse you of killing Deras and setting up me/GM/Eye for it, or anyone else in the thread for that matter.

Pointless.

I was talking about this post right here. Especially the bolded part.
Explain to me how I misrep'd you on this bolded part.

Hmm.

Reading back, I don't know what I was doing in there either.
I've been posting some terrible stuffs lately and I blame it on my fever that stayed for few days.

Pretty quick retreat when he realised that no one was going to jump onto this

Also I would really like to know how the hell I'm his strong townread when I'm not doing much.

self admits he is not doing much at all

Again, would prefer time to post my thoughts because tomorrow will be lylo so hang fire until tuesday at least.

Hmm. How did I miss this part?

continues to try and protray me as saying bad things without EVER following up on it.

You are not lynched yet...?

No, but I'm going to keep doing final thoughts as the fancy strikes me.

Hopefully I won't be the lynch today

, but I'll probably be the kill tonight.

Explain yourself on this one because it awfully looks like a scumslip.

'cause I see no reason why claimed PR should be worried about getting lynched if he/she's real PR.

never follows up on this either after I call him out for it.

I'd rather lynch Ine but GiF is good too.

I'm a VT.

I'd like GiF to go next, but whatever you guys want is cool with me

I'm at L-1 I see. gonna do pairs in a minute.

Z's vote looked to me like an opportunistic vote. Calls me a "prime target" and tries to link me and GiF. As have others, but I kinda feel his "mac is a prime target so I will vote him" seems pretty much like he's setting up a mislynch in me. That would make Z and GiF a viable scum team to me.

Z & GM is viable to me, because Z doubts VE's claim and then accepts GMs without much comment. seems like he's trying to pressure a PR in VE and maybe not GM.

Z & Inne could be... Inne joined & immediately started voting Z before moving to VE. distancing to start with? possibly.

VOTE: Z7

GiF and GM is possible. GiF fails to give a proper read on her at all and rarely comments on her claim. hmm.

since I believe gm's claim (for now), I'm opting for Z lynch right now since he could be everyone's partner except obvtown fferyl and VE. I'd prefer not to be hammered and we actually went for scum but at this point I think it's inevitable since alot of you have PoE'd me as scum.

Because Z hasn't really mentioned me as scummy *until* that vote and he also calls it opportunistic.

Scum is in Ine, Z and GIF and right now I'm fairly certain now it's Z&someone.

Rereading Z's post where he votes me is making me more certain of my vote.

Lists me and GiF as a pairing (but says, prior to this, we were null for him) because we are popuplar (sheeping, effectively)
Says I am a prime target
Says me flipping scum will "clear GM and VE" (so basically he's info flipping at this point. Doesn't sit right with me. @Z - what will happen when I flip town?)

basically I'm a popular vote at the moment and he's trying to cover it with an info flip in my opinion. Covers it with "I've been leaning scummy on" but I don't think he's said that about me recently at all.

VOTE: gif

Mac get on this wagon or i will hammer you and that is no threat

Gif has been active on the site and assumed both pr claims are real

You are probably his partner judging by the timing of this selective inactivity and shared assumption that both prs exist

I metad gif as well and gif is usually more useful

Gif is scum

Final answer

Not having that. Because I went v/la im his partner.

Threatening me again. solid effort.

VOTE: GiF

Im still happy with this vote.

[fferyllt]

That's an interesting bunch of crossposts...

[fferyllt]

yeah. I hate to give up my word of power, but I may have to replace it at MS.

[fferyllt]

What was it before?

I don't understand this question.

[fferyllt]

yeah.

I hate to give up my word of power

, but I may have to replace it at MS.

I thought this was implying you were replacing it with "interesting"...but I guess it could read that you want to replace "interesting" with something else too.

I'm at work and flipping through. I was really looking for comment on my comment on Inef's analysis of our situation...was hoping for something more than "interesting".

I was talking about replacing "interesting".

I'm not commenting yet because I am thinking pretty hard. Characterizing that exchange as unexpected would be an understatement.

[fferyllt]

"blues" is EM-speak for vanilla town, I think.

the mafia dialects are damn confusing.

[fferyllt]

Ok.

well, I'm tentatively leaning town-on-town here.

I did pick up a vibe from Ineff's post to you on Sunday, VE. I wasn't sure what it meant.

Ineff you nearly went ballistic when I put down an unsupported vote before then.

I want to think this is midgame paranoia.

[fferyllt]

Why do you think it's unlikely we have 2 power roles?

[fferyllt]

Why do you think it's unlikely we have 2 power roles?

If a VT claim is mafia with 2 roles that can prevent a night kill and a mislynch still on the table ---they are almost forced to kill a PR claim or face certain loss. Mac was def not targeted for a kill because he is an easy mislynch target and my final words regarding a fos were that mac was probably the team-mate --- GM's thoughts rang similar, and nearly everyone thought they were a possible team. If i was scum i would almostceartainly kill a pr claim because i am a heavily mechanical player, and if i were to kill a VT for wifom it would not be you because you sheeped every vote i put down.

VE would have similar reasons not to kill mac or you --- GM is the only likely candidate to kill you and that would still be serious wifom considering that VEwas a free kill.

all this adds to me not seeing a possible scenario where a VT is scum aside mac--- and i think GM wifoming an NK in that situation would be more likely than mac performing a kill... However i am still somewhat open to mac being scum--- he is the only VTi would consider----

Why would scum-VE claim to protect me instead of GM?

[fferyllt]

Why would he protect gm????? I would think a doc claim would be more believable if they claimed to save a townread

yabbut think about it from the scum POV. saying you protected the power role just seems like the obvious thing to do. protecting a VT might get questioned. Scum don't want questions surrounding their fake claim.

[fferyllt]

heh. true.

Speaking of WIFOM, Scum VE would also have parachuted into the game thread with the intention of building strategy around bamboozling me, and would have built a towering house of cards on that foundation at this point in the game.

[fferyllt]

I would instalynch VE if he claimed to protect GM

If i was in his situation as doc my greatest hope would be for GM to die so that i would have no reason to suspect him

also --- if GM died my suspicions of VE would have been relieved because if i was VM i would push on GM or push on someone else (mac) and set gm up for a lylo lynch and not kill him--- absolutely everything related to a pr not dying makes me think one of them is scum

You might. I don't know if this is true in your experience. In my experience MStown doesn't always agree with my strategies, reads, etc.

[fferyllt]

Hey Z7...any time now would be a good time to chime in. I thought you were in the forum with me last night right after the thread reopened.

[fferyllt]

Cool so we're in agreement.

##Vote: Ineffective

He's playing from a position of having more information about the gamestate than I do. He seems certain we're going to mislynch today - I'm not so certain of that at all.

Rereading the thread and coming back to this, I think Ineff was actually worst-casing things, not speaking from certainty.

[fferyllt]

wat

[fferyllt]

hahaha

((((Tracey))))

<3

[fferyllt]

One of the reasons I'm not voting yet is because I want Z7's thoughts about Night 2 and Day 3 as it currently stands.

The other reason is that MS is turning me into an Ent.

[fferyllt]

Also I'll just go ahead and tell you what Z will say.

VisceraEyes

is still scummy because of [post=X]X[/post]. [post=Y]Y[/post] is kinda a stretch and I don't agree with any of it. I wish he'd stop posting and just die already.

Scumometer:
Everyone else<VisceraEyes

You forgot the ^TM

[fferyllt]

Yes, I do.

[fferyllt]

Yeah. I saved the text of another iso analysis post that I didn't get a chance to submit before the thread was locked. It's not earthshaking. I'll post it after Z7 checks in.

[fferyllt]

What drove my final conclusion was looking at his recent posts... He had been posting in other games in the last couple days and not posting in ours... and the posts were distinctly useful in comparison to the content he provided here

I was playing another (now finished) game with him. The difference in content/substance caught my eye, too.

[fferyllt]

it was already the longest newbie game about 15 pages ago IIRC.

[fferyllt]

I learned something yesterday from the postgame talk in one of my finished game. I've checked with Tracey to be sure that it is ok to mention/link to something from a finished game's QT and she said it is ok.

Since everyone else so far has been analyzing/thinking about the game without this info, I wanted to see Z7's post before throwing this into the mix.

Goodmorning was scum in the Donner Party game that just completed: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=27049

On the Mafia QT, she said this:

I may start looking for shit in my early posts that I can claim crumbing.

http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/d6mG3vAAvvUc

When she claimed JK, she pointed up crumbs she left in this game. There was some skepticism but we eventually accepted they could be real crumbs.

I want this on the table going forward. Whatever we decide to do today, don't lose sight of this later in the game.

[fferyllt]

*crickets*

[fferyllt]

@Z7 - The claim arguably narrowed things down in a helpful way, and the arguments about claims vs fake claims improved my read on Mac. I came out of it feeling a little more like he might be town. With Ineff's push for us to look at pairings, GiF was much more in the frame than he had been. We were looking hard at Mac and GiF near the end. GiF could easily have coasted at least another day if we hadn't torn through ISOs looking for interactions with other players.

Your argument that GiF being scum makes Mac less likely to be scum is a little weak. GiF's vote on Mac was at the right time for a bus.

One thing that I couldn't talk about at the time of Mac's first day 2 L-1 bandwagon was the contrast between his "wait let me post my reads" post in this game and his L-1 post in another game that was ongoing at the time.

This game:

Don't hammer yet, I haven't read anything other than the last posts. It's not going to be beneficial to hammer me without letting me post my thoughts. It's also the weekend, i haven't been able to post that much over the board lately.

VOTE: GiF

Because that L-1 vote was proper opportunistic. I guess you only see it if you know I'm town but yeah, thinking he's scum now.

Again, would prefer time to post my thoughts because tomorrow will be lylo so hang fire until tuesday at least.

The Poetic Justice Game

aaaannnddd

Mac got all quiet again, lovely :T

lol sorry for having a life I guess?

VOTE: Majiffy

Cos that was a fucking shit vote. Seriously bad.

Going out now. Disappearing, if you will.

Poetic Justice game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=27515

In Poetic Justice, Mac was scum. Majiffy was his scum partner.

So, if Mac is scum in this game, I would not be at all surprised that he'd throw a vote on his partner at L-1.

On the other hand, the tone of these two posts are quite different. The Poetic Justice post has much more of a scum vibe to it IMO.

[fferyllt]

Specfics?

[fferyllt]

Ya let me wake up for a sec. As for your meta on mac... I dont agree that his vote on his parter was scummier at L-1 in the other game... Perhaps it makes this threads omgus vote look townier by merit of different tone... But if i were to compare the two posts and decide which was scummier with no flips to go off of id say it was this thread... The other thread had a ring of "idgaf" which always looks town to me

It wasn't the vote. It was the whole tone of the post, which was kinda "I got better shit to do".

He was scum in the other game.

[fferyllt]

I guess what I'm trying to say is that wanting more interactions and wanting to post a reads list before being hammered would be more dangerous to a scum player - more chance to give something away or for the other scum to give something away. Whereas town should want the time and want to provide reads because all if that is about to become the words of a confirmed town player.

[fferyllt]

Ok. I see your point about the awkward construction.

One of the reasons I wanted to bring that post up today, though, was because of Z7's argument that Mac wouldn't vote GiF or vice versa if they are both scum. At least I think he's arguing that.

[fferyllt]

Z7. Post was entirely nonsensical in all regards- full of contradictons an very vauge in the points that he did not contradict himself in. I wouldnt read too much into unless you are willing to consider z7 as scum

This would probably be a good time to post that ISO fragment I was working on before the thread was locked at the end of day 2.

Z7 921 Complaint about thread length/posting rate. This was right after Revenus asked to be replaced out. Didn't think about that at the time, but the timing is interesting.

1189 Z7's first post after GiF replaces in. He's back to the long blogpost style

1201 GiF questions me about leaving the Z7 wagon.

1205 GiF says VE is town

1263 GiF readslist. Z7 is leaning town

1307 GiF now says Z7 is transparent but erratic town

1339 Z7 says GiF and I are his strongest town reads. He's had GiF/Revenus number 2 in his scumometer forever, but this is still a strong statement I think.

Day 1 ended somewhere around here.

[fferyllt]

As I was speed-reading the ISOs after GiF hammered I was looking for Z7-Rev associative stuff - untoward buddying or unusual distancing. I could make a very weak argument that Fropome was avoiding Rev, though not the reverse. Z7 and Rev not so much. And Z7 and GiF also not so much, though Z7 tends to talk about people rather than to people unless someone directly questions him.

[fferyllt]

I checked the timestamps on the two posts. GM's roleclaim happened on May 6 in this thread. The post in the QT was made in Apr 24.

It occurred to me that our push back about "keep" being a crumb could have suggested retroactive crumb-claiming as a strategy in the other game. But, the timestamps rule that out.

[fferyllt]

I read through your post several times trying to figure out what you meant by that because... If gms crumb attempt was fake in this thread and he was looking back for something to claim was a crumb, the QT would only confirm that it is something he would do... Especially considering it came before this threads attempt

this is what I was thinking when I read the QT.

Later, I wondered about the timing, and if the suspicions of faking here had inspired the idea in the other game.

But, the timing rules that out.

FTR GM did not do a fake claim in the other game. She was NKed by the SK, and never under heavy lynch pressure.

[fferyllt]

It has undermined the claim for me as well. I'm in a self-imposed holding pattern until GM comes back from vacation.

[fferyllt]

@VE what are your thoughts about my post #2263?

[fferyllt]

Was Mac under the same kind of scrutiny in Poetic as he was in this game? If not then it's not a really good meta comparison - remember that Mac was at L-1 at the time of his post; and if Mac had ended up getting lynched after GiF put him on L-1 then his attack and subsequent vote would have made GiF look REALLY good superficially.

That was his post after L-1 in the Poetic game. So yeah, the pressure was similar.

What do you think of GM's crumb stuff from the Donner Party game?

[fferyllt]

right.

[fferyllt]

I searched my own posts at the time. half the number of occurrences in more posts. about 100 more at the time IIRC.

[fferyllt]

Psychologically speaking, GM doesn't appear as suspicious of Mac as she should be. Like, presuming she's a real JK, after a no-kill would you NOT be INSTANTLY and almost IRREVOCABLY suspicious of your JK target? Like, sure there are other possibilities, but if you're the JK would you not immediately think that the simplest and most logical conclusion is that your target is scum? Especially considering by her own admission she doesn't think that it's likely Mac would have been targeted by a NK.

Yeah. sometimes JKs try to protect with their night action, but she said she was blocking Mac.

[fferyllt]

I think that's L-2. I won't put down a vote until GM has a chance to respond.

[fferyllt]

I searched my own posts at the time. half the number of occurrences in more posts. about 100 more at the time IIRC.

The best way here is surely to work in percentages, but that's too much of a hassle.

just counted mine at it's about 9 in less posts I'm sure.

This isnt a very scientific way of comparing occurance. Earlier we did a better comparison that showed GM uses the word keep as much or more often in other threads compared to his usage on this thread--- this says more because everyone uses different words at different frequency and this proves GM did not intentionally insert "keep". -- if he did it would occur more often here imo

I know. But, Mac asked about searches of other players' "keep" word counts.

[fferyllt]

This is, quite frankly, stupid. If I were scum I would have killed VE because as he claimed Doc I'd want him out of the way. At a level of 99% surety that he wouldn't be protected, why wouldn't I just kill him?
I realize this is WIFOM, but seriously. Why in the fuck would I bother with ff?

this resonates.

[fferyllt]

GM is at L-2 and I am willing to vote her.

I want to talk about what town does next if she flips town. If there is a day 4 it looks to me like it will be a mess because to the extent there is a town core it's pretty tattered. That worries me.

[fferyllt]

yeah I'm totally on the fence.

[fferyllt]

totally depends on when you ask me.

[fferyllt]

I was being only a little facetious. I'm going round and round over GM and you, with the occasional fit of paranoia about Eff or VE.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I agree that you've made good points and her response has been meh.

That's going up against my personal bias toward preserving/protecting PRs as town. Not that I never go against the bias.

These kinds of dilemmas are so much easier to deal with in games with short days. Time pressure helps. Anyway, I'm closing in on a decision.

[fferyllt]

I still think it's you, but as both Z and Ine have mentioned wanting to lynch a PR claim I thought I might mention that VE's claim is way more sketch than mine.

It makes sense as a gambit, especially in a setting like this. Besides, if you're the doc do you

want

people to know who you are?

Hilarious that you're using Z7's rationale as support for poking at VE's claim.

[fferyllt]

If we lynch GM and she flips town, I will probably want to lynch Mac next if I am alive to push it.

[fferyllt]

And feryl - I trust that on PLVE Day you'll be around with me to figure out the last scum? If it's you then I'm gonna make you work for it.

I feel like my sell-by date has expired. I don't expect to be around for that discussion if town hasn't won this by then. I want to get this right today.

[fferyllt]

And feryl - I trust that on PLVE Day you'll be around with me to figure out the last scum? If it's you then I'm gonna make you work for it.

I feel like my sell-by date has expired. I don't expect to be around for that discussion if town hasn't won this by then. I want to get this right today.

The more I look at this, the more suspicious it sounds. So in essence, unless we lynch Mac and he's scum, feryl is clocking out of the game? What kind of shit is that?

Nope. not clocking out, not while I'm alive. And I'm leaning toward a GM lynch today, not Mac. But it's running up against a very heavy bias internal bias.

[fferyllt]

It might have been the way you phrased it. It just sounded like you don't care anymore and want it to be over...which is the attitude scum want you to have and an attitude I have come to not expect from you over the course of the game.

I hate endgame. We're not even close, but thinking about 2 more mislynches dismays me. I want to get this right today.

[fferyllt]

It might have been the way you phrased it. It just sounded like you don't care anymore and want it to be over...which is the attitude scum want you to have and an attitude I have come to not expect from you over the course of the game.

Look at mac's last few posts. Is there something off about them? Like he's being manipulative? I can't explain what I mean better than that. But there's a weird vibe. It could just be a town-thinks-he's-talking-to-scum thing going on with his interactions with GM, but I'm not sure.

Also, it kind of freaks me to have such an un-footnoted town read from him.

[fferyllt]

Go back to before my meta-breadcrumb post and read a page or two of his posts there. And then his posts from after I made that post. Tell me what you see.

[fferyllt]

It's a tone thing. I'm reading a sort of resignation in his earlier posts that's not there now.

[fferyllt]

I mean, I attributed that to having just come back - I'm not seeing what you're seeing in that regard. I mean, we three (you me and Inef) were in here discussing the implications, and 2 out of 3 of us had pretty much decided that Mac was the best lynch. I mean, town or scum, would you not feel resigned in that situation?

I'd feel resigned but I'd be making as much as I could of the day as town.

[fferyllt]

yeah.

[fferyllt]

this is disappointing, to say the least. I legitmately think gm is the scum here and I'm being accused of

manipulative

? play. I don't get it.

This sucks to explain because it's about tone, not specifics.

I feel like you are cheerleading the lines of thought that lead to not lynching you today more than you're developing your own case for GM being scum. And you're townreading everyone else afaict. The outbreak of paranoia over/between VE and Eff didn't provoke so much as a blink. If I were scum and knew that was all town on town, I think I would have kept my oar out of it, to see if town went anywhere useful to me with it.

[fferyllt]

Then you are ignoring Eff from what I can tell.

[fferyllt]

Do you remember what tipped you over in terms of suspecting GM?

[fferyllt]

Do you remember what tipped you over in terms of suspecting GM?

Just piecing together all the pieces of the claim and realising it didn't really make sense. You digging up the QT quote was a biggy, however. Just kinda seems like the way she planned to fakeclaim in that game is the way she claimed in here. then the belief I had in it crumbled.

@gm - ok. so when I flip town will you vote NO ONE else in the entire game because I was the only partner you had down for GIF? of course you won't.

if you are the scum it just looks like you've primed me up for a lynch here. if you targetted fery then you always had me to fall back on since you could claim jailkeeping me because I was your only partner for GIF.

It looks like most of that piecing together wasn't happening in this thread. You didn't vote her even after my crumb post until after VE put his vote down.

[fferyllt]

so you were just kinda lost prior to my post?

[fferyllt]

My sense is that you just weren't in the thread kicking tires and trying to figure things out. I'm going to reread day 3 to see if that's accurate.

[fferyllt]

Some interesting points being raised about goodmorning.

Reading back, it looks like this could be a bit of a setup to mislynch me. I was her only pairing as GIF's partner, which actually sets it up nicely for me to be lynched next day (today).

The reference from ff from another game is very interesting, as well. I'm starting to lean GMscum now.

This game, man.

This post...here is where you say you are starting to lean scum.

But I get NO SENSE AT ALL from your earlier posts day 3 that you are trying to figure out who scum are. You reacted to being GM's stated JK target, you complained about WiFom, you made exactly one comment about Eff and VE voting each other. That's it. I fail to see any effort to figure out what's going on in the game during that periord.

GM was also not very exploratory during that period of day 3, and waited until she was back from vacation to put a vote down, but at least he had a clear suspect.

[fferyllt]

because?

[fferyllt]

damn I hate to see you leave this game.

[fferyllt]

I understand. I just hate to see you replace out of a game you've put so much into.

I'm going to go back and look at VE's reasons for voting GM.

[fferyllt]

actually typed a mac vote in that post before I hit submit and decided to recheck things for the 80th time.

[fferyllt]

yeah, no. VE we need to talk.

[fferyllt]

No, not in trouble. I've been contemplating hammering Mac for hours, though. Missed my chance. :/

I went back and looked at your reasons for voting GM, and it's basically a case I agree with. But I think there's good case for voting Mac, too. Equally good, in fact.

Do you still want to lynch GM?

[fferyllt]

in fact, it's basically a case based on what I noticed from the other game plus some attitudinal things about her not going after Mac from the get go today.

[fferyllt]

Yes they did. And now I wander the forums feeling like a ghost among ghosts as posts appear from nowhere as though written by apparitions.

[fferyllt]

So you feel better about a GM lynch than a Mac lynch?

Did you read through the convo we had this morning?

[fferyllt]

If fropome was scum the student far surpassed the teacher on the first day of school. I'll give up the game and stick with cutthroat scrabble or something.

[fferyllt]

replace out

Nevermind... This game is too epic to replace out of. consider me V/la till i cool my jets

Best crosspost ever. <3

[fferyllt]

Yeah like every post is WIFOM now and I don't like it.

I know I was a top partner-read for alot of people but that doesn't mean I won't be killed. I was an easy lynch d2 when at L-1 but I managed to get away from it (

although not on my own terms.

.) but yeah, if I was the target last night, it would've thrown a spanner in the works had I not been protected.

What would your own terms have been?

[fferyllt]

I would instalynch VE if he claimed to protect GM

If i was in his situation as doc my greatest hope would be for GM to die so that i would have no reason to suspect him

also --- if GM died my suspicions of VE would have been relieved because if i was VM i would push on GM or push on someone else (mac) and set gm up for a lylo lynch and not kill him--- absolutely everything related to a pr not dying makes me think one of them is scum

What does VM stand for?

[fferyllt]

aaah. tks. I think I originally read it as VE, but going back thru the thread earlier today I couldn't figure it out.

[fferyllt]

lol. this wouldn't be a manufactured townslip would it?