Marketplace Mafia III - Game Over

[Lost Butterfly]

BBmolla, what swung you to Espeonage over baldeagle?

Aha!~

Garuda's Top Three Townreads

Harakiri
Pieguyn
ProHawk

Garuda's Next Three Townreads

VoidedMafia
MuffinMan
BBMolla

everyone does this

Nacho, you wound me.

Top Three

Pieguyn
Harakiri
Garuda

Next Three

BBmolla
Lord Mhork
zMuffinMan

So the second tier of players spend $10 on each of the four abilities and then send the rest to the top three?

[Lost Butterfly]

Instead we can wait to hear from LB since he's the last remaining Big Sixer. I wanna know why all the auctions are so small. What happened?

Remember that awesome plan that LB put up? No bidding involved.

Can we please just lynch one of my top-scum-reads?

That explains why the town bids are so low. The

scum

bids, on the other hand...

A huge infodump coming up, but the most important things to know are that 1) I have a Not Mafia result on zMuffinMan (which basically makes him confirmed town if Nero flips scum), and 2) today ISN'T MYLO anymore.

[Lost Butterfly]

Hey Mhork, what are the odds all six of the "Big Sixer" is town?

I have strong reason to believe LB might be scum. As in, they have the nightkill. Talking to Mina privately at the moment.

I was in the middle of telling the thread that, but your first post in the neighbourhood QT was, "Shit, I thought deadline was tomorrow." Do you deny this?

[Lost Butterfly]

Seriously, you can't respond to, "Harakiri, I have strong reasons to think you're scum, because I won NK for $1 and that shouldn't have happened," with "GUYS, I THINK LB IS SCUM. THEY CLAIMED TO HAVE THE NK."

[Lost Butterfly]

Right now, I'm juggling posting in the thread with arguing with Harakiri in the neighbourhood QT, so am a bit distracted.

What I told him is that my theories were:

1) He's scum and messed up the deadline, and so he didn't submit his kill. (It's not 100% DAMNING, which is why I tried to pressure him before coming forward, particularly since I'd been town-reading the slot. And then I realized town actually loses a day if I shoot, so I didn't have to worry about Countermeasures and might as well come forward to let people know there won't be a town death tonight. If we mislynch today, then consider this my intention not to shoot. Probably even if we don't mislynch, actually.) Harakiri argued in the neighbour QT that he's been posting everywhere else and would have been more on top of things as scum. Frankly, I can see certain people in this game not paying enough attention to the deadline if they were Harakiri's partner.

2) Each scumteam thought it was the other team's "turn."

3) One or both scumteam is too poor to afford NK (and thought it would go for much more than it did), and so decided to go with the money transfer plan instead of bidding on NK. Harakiri's theory was also that they might be holding a NK in reserve.

4) The most terrifying theory: the scum accidentally locked out their counterpart. Part of why I decided to bid on NK was because after I said all that stuff about not wanting to bid on red auctions, I figured I was less likely to be locked out for that than something like bulletproof (and

pieguyn

would be locked out of NK again). This would implicate someone like Garuda.

Or some combination of the above.

[Lost Butterfly]

*EBWOP: didn't submit a bid on nightkill, not didn't submit a nightkill.

[Lost Butterfly]

I have to eat, but I'll write a paraphrase of what went down in the neighbourhood QT for the curious in a bit. For what it's worth, I thought Natirasha's earlier posts in the neighbourhood reacting to the claim were awful, but his recent ones have improved. I'm still not sure what to do with Harakiri. Or with everyone else in the game, pretty much.

At this point, I think Nero has to be scum, because if he isn't, there's basically no one it CAN be. But I still really don't want to quicklynch even with the NK in hand. Frankly, I found it worrisome that Garuda was pushing for it so hard yesterday, when from their PoV, gaining an extra $65 would be useless if we chose wrong, and they were almost my investigation tonight (I thought Muffin was less likely to have bussed Nero, and wasn't as town overall, though).

ProHawk, your thoughts on what just transpired between me and Harakiri? Does this affect your read on either one of us? Since you're so convinced that you've nailed all the scum and we're all just not brilliant enough to see it? Does this fit your scumteam theory?

oh man

i'm so dumb

blaaaaaah

???

...Then it's LyLo, isn't it...?

Nope. We're at twelve alive and assuming five scum. We mislynch, and that's six town, five scum. Since there's no kill tonight, on the following day, we'd be back to six town, five scum.

Basically, we've just won a day. So...fuck yeah. I'm awesome

r than pretty incompetent scum, but still

.

[Lost Butterfly]

(I reserve the right to retract my claim to awesomeness sometime within the next forty-eight hours, when I decide that my reads all suck and I'm terrible at this game again.)

By the way, is there anyone who WANTS me to kill tonight, just so it's not in play? I'm against it, because if I choose wrong, I lose the game. Even if we lynch correctly, it still reduces the number of lynches.

Quilford, where's your promised BBmolla case? I can't find it myself, so I need to pester Faraday for the link to the quicktopic to BBmolla's scum game on Westeros, because it pretty much DESTROYS your meta case. He's very, very self-aware as scum...and so plays consciously to conceptions of what "town" behaviour is. Even if he's changing it up because Faraday and I know his meta, he just feels genuine and uncalculated. Also, I think Vote Freezer and Vote Nullifier disappearing when they did are huge points in his favour.

[Lost Butterfly]

I need to go back and re-read stuff, but my gut is telling me you and Harakiri are on opposite teams. You found eachother and are now coordinating with eachother via neighborhood. Your back and forth was a ruse to make it look like scum didn't actually bid for the night-kill. You're lying about winning a day and its still MYLO.

Tell me why that isn't the case.

...

...

...um...

...because...

...that's...a really, really stupid move, and no one would ever go to all this trouble in a million years when everyone in the game was already calling both of us town?

*headdesk*

[Lost Butterfly]

I mean, yesterday, you'd been hyping a big case on Molla that was coming "on Wednesday." The final product wasn't all that impressive.

It just occurred to me that BBmolla could have said after the fact that he'd advertised everything but whichever two abilities were eliminated. (It would explain why Messenger and Neighbourizer showed up, but Roleblocker didn't.) And BBmolla not realizing how powerful Tailor could be would explain why no one bothered to bid on it N1. But I still think it's just a weird thing to actually CLAIM two nights in a row. And it's a lot of resources for scum, while easily disprovable. Mind you, I haven't actually done the advertising math this time around. Something else to add to my to-do list.

[Lost Butterfly]

BBmolla's scum QT

Notable part:

Mafia is really frustrating to me.

Here I am, spewing BULLSHIT, and everyone is calling me town for it. Because I have reads. Do they make sense? Fuck no. But because they don't know it's me, they think "oh this adorable players has silly reads, how cute, he's town."

Then, try as I might as town, I just always end up looking like shit because I don't care how I look.

I think what I need to do is get my real reads as I always do then make up bullshit reasons so people will follow me onto whoever I think is scum.

Not a bad idea.

[Lost Butterfly]

Another post:

I am rather curious if people realize that putting so much effort into these reads makes me more than likely scum. Had pretty good results at MS doing something similar to this as scum.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p4868462

Hencewhy if SAD knows who I am I'm boned.

I probably should have formatted it differently too

Man I'm pretty dumb

Admittedly, given that Faraday and I were mods in that game, I don't think BBmolla would go for the casewalling approach here.

[Lost Butterfly]

Voided, if Nero is scum, he has investigation immunity. Given the level of vitriol they've spewed at each other, zMuffinMan and Nero have almost certainly not been cross-bussing throughout the entire game.

Particularly

not in this set-up. After KingdomAces' flip, we know only one team in the game has II. Therefore, an innocent on Muffin is a lot more meaningful than an innocent on someone else. An innocent on Garuda would have been a repeat of what happened with Nero. And at the time, I was thinking my Garuda suspicions were just stupid paranoia, because Nacho and Empire occasionally sound really genuine and protown.

Actually, my crackpot theory right now is that Garuda and Nero are partners. I mean, his earlier play towards Nero was pretty protective--Nero was always vaguely scummy but "looked like his town meta," or "was genuine," or some other reason for not voting him. Contrast that with how he white-knights players like ProHawk or Voidedmafia. Then on the day Nero was governed, he started attacking Nero hardcore and suddenly came out with meta inditing him (although I forget how much momentum was headed Nero's way when Garuda voted him). Garuda going into overdrive AFTER my innocent was weird, though. I'd have expected him to react how Ghostly Penguin did, and use that as an excuse to back off.

A bonus of this theory is that it explains the lack of N1 kill.

I'm writing a paraphrase of the QT, which I'm just going to run past Magua before submitting. I've realized that neighbourhoods really aren't as useful as they're cracked up to be for getting a read on someone. Because there's something about interacting with someone privately and one-on-one that makes you emotionally predisposed to like them, particularly if they're town-reading you and asking for advice. Like with Voided on D1, I almost feel

bad

suspecting Harakiri right now.

[Lost Butterfly]

(The bottom line is that if either Nero or Muffin ever flips scum, the other is confirmed town.)

[Lost Butterfly]

I'm fine shooting tonight, particularly since Gravedigger was never claimed.

That said, do you realize there's an obvious problem with publicly announcing my target?

Nero/Mhork/Eagle are the only real thoughts I will probably contribute to the game. And also your neighbor is the only player in the big 6 to apparently accomplish anything with abilities. Do I find that weird, considering this member of the big 6 was one of the most competent and should have been the biggest threat? Yes, I do find that weird.

Well, it could be they were more afraid of pie's money than my remaining cop shot (given I'd obviously just blown most of my cash on two expensive abilities)...but for the record, I find it weird that both my actions went through, too. It implies the team shooting/with roleblocking power had ways around my second cop result.

The lock-out theory is complete tinfoil hat, but it would explain why ONE team didn't bid on NK.

Garuda, thoughts on Harakiri, and on that eagle post Muffin called town?

[Lost Butterfly]

Whoever won Messenger in last night's auction, claim now.

[Lost Butterfly]

I think that has more to do with Nero having been governed yesterday.

Don't have a lot of time now, but just a heads-up: the mod error has to do with Harakiri's bids. He claimed all his actions in the neighbourhood. After checking it over, I saw he made an illegal bid N2 (as in, he bid more money than he had). Before outing him in the thread, I double-checked with Magua that the math didn't add up, and he confirmed it. But then a mod error was announced in the thread, and Natirasha immediately posted in the neighbourhood QT to go, "Oh, it turns out there was a mistake, one of my bids shouldn't have been allowed, and I have $1 extra now."

FTR, I checked, and a mod error would have been announced whether Harakiri had been allowed to make incorrect bids N2 OR Magua had approved an invalid fakeclaim. I thought Natirasha's reaction to it in the QT was pretty smooth and natural, so was about to say that it might actually be a point in his favour...but his reaction to my telling him I found his mistake was weird, so...I'll get back to you on this one.

Sorry for putting off the QT paraphrase. I've been delaying posting in this game mostly because it's tedious and every time I start a Marketplace post, I go, "Fuck, the QT paraphrase. Do that first." Also, because I'm terrible at this game and might have saved baldeagle-scum by starting a counterwagon on someone I'd second-guessed myself out of thinking was confirmed town. So...yeah.

[Lost Butterfly]

Ghostly Penguin:

Fakeclaim: The Entrepreneur Role PM is posted in the thread. If you give me specific game mechanics, I will write the relevant PM for you incorporating those elements with proper flavor and styling.

In addition upon request I will verify that your math for fake wages, auctions, transfers, etc complies with all publicly known rules.

Otherwise, they'd actually be confirmed

town

right now.

Sakura argued in the QT that they wouldn't have been notified of the error as scum. This is ridiculous ("Oops, I accidentally approved an invalid fakeclaim...but I'm just not going to tell them and wait for them to get lynched for it"), but I like the fact that

she

thought this would confirm them, because it's kind of an adorably town mindset. (Also, I'll answer your posts in the neighbourhood later.)

ProHawk: I considered Garuda, upside down, and Muffin, but I neighbourized Harakiri because I thought they were town, pieguyn was the likely NK if I wasn't dying, and because they asked and I thought I'd be nice and accept their request in case they had important role stuff to discuss.

[Lost Butterfly]

Hey, Garuda, how are you feeling about Nero/eagle/Mhork right about

now

?

[Lost Butterfly]

Shush, Mhork. I was asking

Garuda

, not you. No need to have an implosion just yet.

[Lost Butterfly]

(I mean, those italics were there for a reason.)

Also, Voided, I hate just about everything in your 4613. How does that make you feel? And we want actual bids, not just what roles you have.

[Lost Butterfly]

Hey, Nacho, are you still online?

For the record, I think Mhork's logic for Nero town is silly and too paranoid--yes, he has a point that it's POSSIBLE scum in a fantastic position might govern town just so LYLO is straightforward, but there are much stronger reasons for scum to keep it in reserve for the last day or to govern a teammate (no matter how useless a teammate) rather than risk losing a teammate to a perfectly good mislynch. Even if Nero isn't confirmed scum right now (only like 2x more likely to be scum or something), there's a reason Nero got run up

before

the govern--because he's both one of the scummiest AND least "town"-looking people in the game.

That said, I REALLY don't like how people started piling up on Nero just as Muffin said, "Okay, let's start our massclaim now or never." At least Garuda is consistent in not caring much about one, but Voided's impatience (combined with hedging his bets a lot today) bugs me.

Voided, what's your read on ProHawk? Or are you just helpfully telling him how town Harakiri and I are despite the fact that you've also been sort of looking at us sideways now and then in your posts? And the person I'd thought was confirmed town earlier was Klick/Espeonage.

eagle, why is your sudden shift on Voided (or on me earlier) less suspicious than BBmolla's and Quilford's on each other?

[Lost Butterfly]

Can you elaborate on why you've been up and down on me, Muffin? I'm not sure I've followed your trajectory on my slot this game, since you've gone from being leery of me to having me as a weak townread to not wanting to go anywhere near lynching me to now apparently being unsure of me again. Also, shouldn't I be the one you're questioning, rather than asking other people about their reads on me (I mean, was ProHawk really going to change your mind)? Considering you're apparently unsure of me, I don't like how you haven't even mentioned the NK thing or any of my arguments with Harakiri, or that I have an innocent on you.

I mean, I'm reasonably confident in your alignment at this point, but I'm not quite "bet the game on it" sure, yet.

Also, the no-lynch plan is terrible and has no upside. If there isn't a kill in reserve, then we just lost the advantage I won by stealing the NK from scum and are throwing away a mislynch. If there IS a kill in reserve, then we're in exactly the same position as we'd be by lynching, except with a dead Mina--and that's if my kill even goes through.

[Lost Butterfly]

Meh. The sheer amount of...non-usage, for lack of a better way to put it, has really dragged on my ability to care about what you think of my posts.

I don't actually know what that means, but it sounded pretty insulting?

Klick offered to be quicklynched for the money (but then replaced out instead and so weakened that towntell), and Espeonage had the town slip (as well as some genuine-sounding posts upon replacement). Then I second-guessed myself out of that read because I thought everyone was town and Espeonage had some crappy erratic stances.

[Lost Butterfly]

EBWOP: I mean, Espeonage had the PM slip where he went, "I advertised these four abilities," and then when I questioned him on it, was all, "Oh, right, there was a fifth one in the PM Magua sent me."

[Lost Butterfly]

On the one hand, I'm sorry for the accidental dig at you, ProHawk (I meant it more as "Muffin suspects you and probably wouldn't just sheep you if you said that 'Lost Butterfly is scum'")...but on the other, your ridiculous over-the-top confidence in completely outrageous reads is irritating. Spare us the Cassandra routine. You're practically an insane cop.

Hey, Garuda, how are you feeling about Nero/eagle/Mhork right about

now

?

Mhork is really fucking town dude

GAH

FIRST MHORK, THEN YOU.

MY QUESTION WAS TO NACHO. THOSE WERE NACHO'S TOP THREE SUSPECTS. ARE THOSE STILL HIS TOP THREE SUSPECTS

JUST LET HIM ANSWER.

*sigh*

[Lost Butterfly]

Now I'm sorry for the not-so-accidental dig at you, ProHawk. .______. That was probably an overreaction.

[Lost Butterfly]

yeah whatever, if you're still calling nero town after that, you have severe brain damage. that's all i have to say about it.

Yeah, at this point, there's no possible anyone can doubt that Nero is...

I still don't care. Nice governing. I don't feel like thinking about Nero anymore.

...

...

...

...



Well, fuck. Looks like we have to actually try today.

[Lost Butterfly]

I want to know what ProHawk thinks of new developments. Does the

second

(!!!) Nero govern affect your picture of the game at all?

I see very solid town, but not conftown.

Really? Well, damn. I guess I should go back in time and vote Espeonage AGAIN. Because he wasn't conftown, only very solid town.

(Seriously, what the hell is the point of this exchange? Is this somehow supposed to give you a better read on me?)

[Lost Butterfly]

(I thought "non-usage" was your way of saying I was useless and my opinion of you irrelevant or something, Voided.)

[Lost Butterfly]

Prod dodge because I have work and don't know if the the site will be down again the next time I try to post. But Garuda, the "correct" response was supposed to be, "Boy, actually, the Mhork part of the equation is off, because he looks obvtown right now!" (Granted, the trap could be seen a mile away by that point.)

Voided, that's really the best you can do?

[Lost Butterfly]

penguin_alien, uh, what exactly caused your sudden shift towards Harakiri, given that I don't think your slot has voiced any suspicion whatsoever of them all game and the only reason to do a sudden turnaround on them is because of the $1 bid (which you seemed to think "didn't convince you")?

[Lost Butterfly]

Also, it's weird that people are making assumptions about eagle's alignment based on Nero when 1) Nero's vote on eagle came after MULTIPLE PEOPLE ALREADY CALLED HIM CONFIRMED SCUM IN THE THREAD, and 2) the two halves of the scumteam probably don't know each other (otherwise, I'd have found Garuda's point about governing Nero while eagle was the likely counterwagon a strong one--it's enough to make a Nero-eagle partnership less likely despite eagle's voting history being consistent with it).

Something I'd mentioned to Harakiri in the neighbourhood QT and that's been bugging me about eagle: I'd cleared him for some early clueless posts that seemed completely uninformed ("really, scum might have more money than $100? There are more than three scum? You don't say!"), but in his later posts this game, he comes across as much more level-headed and competent. On a reread, the lost-sheep vibe seemed genuine than I'd remembered. It also occurred to me that his stance on Voided would make more sense as someone who was genuinely scumhunting for the other Mafia half.

eagle, can you define for me what you mean by a "safe" lynch?

[Lost Butterfly]

EBWOP: less genuine than I'd remembered.

[Lost Butterfly]

Wait.

I just realized there are very, very high chances (like, >50%) that the scumteams know each other now that Nero has been outed (unless Harakiri really didn't send his team's bids in and pieguyn won it, that is).

Hey, upside down. If you don't send me a message within the next twenty-four hours that says, "I am upside down, and I have not used my messenger shot, yet," you're getting lynched today.

[Lost Butterfly]

ProHawk actually made a decent point on Harakiri. I've seen their claimed actions. They made a show about wanting to advertise Market Analyst and break the game with mechanics; when it came around the first time, they apparently bid $10 on it...as well as $10 on every other ability that came up for auction except for NK, Wage Freeze, and Messenger (that's what caused the error--the math checked out AFTER the bids were all resolved, but after bidding on everything, they should have had -$10). When it came around the second time, they didn't bid on it at all.

Harakiri, why didn't you make more of an effort to win Market Analyst? Or even find out who had it?

Also, someone please explain why double gov. = Nero confscum to this poor, addled man?

You realize the only possible reason why Nero would be governed twice as

town

(saving him for the LYLO mislynch because today is no longer MYLO) means I'm confirmed town, right? Also, that Nero's "HAHAHAHAHAHA" came before you asked this?

This is something that drives me crazy about you, and I'm not sure how much of it is playstyle-related. You ask really, really pointless questions that don't lead anywhere at all, and pad your posts with filler. And to be honest, I REALLY don't like the fact you started the day out by acting as though I was confirmed town, and then the bulk of your developing paranoia of me consisted of tangential nitpicking like "Really, you called Espeonage confirmed town in a throwaway comment expressing voter's remorse? Well, you're wrong! He wasn't confirmed town at all, and you should have thought he was only SOLID town at earlier on." (NO SHIT. "CONFIRMED TOWN" WAS HYPERBOLE. I WOULDN'T HAVE VOTED HIM IF HE WAS

ACTUALLY

CONFIRMED TOWN.) I'd understand if you suspected me for 180-ing on a townread, despite the fact that I'm pretty obviously town at this point and none of my play makes any sense whatsoever for scum unless I'm deliberately trying to make the game harder for myself as a challenge, but for overstating how town I'd found the player

who I'd voted

(for which the scum motivation is...um...making my turnaround look worse)?

[Lost Butterfly]

Why does no one here give a shit right now?

[Lost Butterfly]

Hey, upside down, it's been over twenty-four hours. I'll give you a grace period of eighteen more hours due to the site outage, because I'm forgiving like that!

If people would prefer they send it to someone like Muffin instead, speak now or forever hold your peace.

If you are so confident that scum is going to govern (and implicate themselves as scum) but still BUS at the same time you are out of your mind.

The two best things Nero-scum can do for his team are bus buddies and hammer townies. Nero being on a wagon automatically poisons it; surely you don't think he's dumb enough to realize that his presence on a wagon ruins everyone else's interpretation of it, especially taking into account how Eagle/Espeonage was resolved.

I'm starting to think eagle is town again. Neros reaction after Muffin-post suggests he didn't have any sort of clue that he was confirmed scum, and voting eagle during the counter wagons could have easily been nero not really caring which lynch went through since they were both town. I don't think eagle last two posts are scum eagle posts, and I think that Nero would be less likely to be double governed if the most obvious counter wagon was a scum wagon since obviously your wagon didn't have any legs.

Can you explain your thought process between these two posts? Most of this stuff happened before (except for eagle's posts). I don't like you suddenly hopping on the "Nero didn't realize he was confirmed scum" theory.

[Lost Butterfly]

<3 Magua

Mhork is another early town read who's been sinking fast, but it's only today that I've started having doubts, and I'd rather wait and see if it's not just temporary apathy. I actually liked ProHawk's post-govern paranoid tinfoil hat posts enough to give him a reprieve for now.

These are two very good reads!

Garuda, here it seems like you're agreeing more with the Mhork-is-still-town part of this sentence. What changed?

(Also, Mhork's defence of Nero was way more convincing than ProHawk's, because his had actual emotion behind it. I thought ProHawk's was town

enough

to make me reluctant to lynch him that day, but I've seen scum cling to ridiculous or absurd theories about the game. Mhork's genuine anger is a lot harder to fake.)

Someone here keep me company. I'm lonely.

[Lost Butterfly]

Earlier, it didn't matter as much, and other things distracted me. But now it just hit me that the scum have almost certainly messaged each other today (if not earlier in the game).

I want concrete proof that you haven't sent one today. If you can't provide this despite having claimed not to have sent one, then you're busted.

(Also, I'm a

lot

more confrontational than I look. )

[Lost Butterfly]

Oh!

Confirming reception of upside down's message. To answer your question, it doesn't prove anything, but it was worth a try.

Why didn't you say you were sending it in the thread?

[Lost Butterfly]

(What really would have proved something was you NOT sending a message.)

[Lost Butterfly]

I'm out of town now, so have limited access until almost the deadline. This is annoying.

Because I literally cannot care any less and no one seems too eager to snuff out Hara. In fact we could just have LB shoot him. That could work.

Um...that's definitely not happening tonight.

[Lost Butterfly]

So, you guys don't give a fuck whether confirmed scum is on my wagon and that he is barely pushing it? Yeah, uwop is scum and I feel less happy about Hara.

On the one hand, this is stupid. On the other, is this stupid in a scum way? I'm not sure.

[Lost Butterfly]

Why not use your vigshot as an extra lynch? Why are you opposed to that?

I didn't say I wouldn't shoot (although frankly, you're putting a LOT of pressure on me right now to singlehandedly decide the game if we mislynch today, because there are issues with going for the obvious target). I said there are much better targets than Harakiri. But discussing who I'm shooting or not shooting in the thread is really, really stupid for a number of reasons.

Also, you're a moron, ProHawk.

[Lost Butterfly]

Lost Butterfly, what do you think about our two top wagons?

Not to set ProHawk off again, but of the two, I'm more inclined to vote eagle than Harakiri (I'm a lot more paranoid of Harakiri today than yesterday, both because I'm afraid I'm stupid for giving them the benefit of the doubt re: their lack of submission last night and because a few things they said earlier in the QT pinged me--also don't really like how rigid their reads are--but all in all, their reaction to pressure has looked genuine and they've done some stuff this game like their use of Wage Freeze that makes me reluctant to vote them).

(BBmolla, what QT stuff of mine in particular "solidifies" your read for you, considering I haven't shared most of it? Also, is there anyone here who's interested in a paraphrase of the neighbourhood QT? Otherwise, I won't bother.)

But right now, I'm leaning elsewhere.

I want concrete proof that you haven't sent one today. If you can't provide this despite having claimed not to have sent one, then you're busted.

This is dumb. Messenger gets a 2x use.

All right. Upside down, why don't you send your second message to ProHawk today?

Hey, ProHawk. Why didn't you say anything when I asked upside down to send me a message while you were around and posting? I'd have expected you to insist he send it to someone else, particularly given your paranoid partnership theories and your reaction to my neighbourizing Harakiri. But you said nothing and just waited until after the message was sent to use it as an excuse to scumread me.

See LB, its these crazy lets use the game mechanics to clear people/scum hunt that just makes me think you are scum.

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

*bashes head against a wall*

DO YOU REALIZE THAT'S ACTUALLY A

PROTOWN

THING THAT EVERYONE ELSE IN THE GAME WOULD ALSO BE DOING IF THEY WEREN'T ALL EITHER LAZY OR COMPLETELY FUCKING INCOMPETENT?

Sure, this player claimed a role that would be useful for scum. But hey, let's not make it any more difficult for them to USE it as scum. Because hahahaha, using game mechanics to solve the game is pathetic and scummy!

Just like massclaim, which everyone agreed should happen but which never happened because no one could be assed to start it, and now it's too late! And that protown breaking strategy that everyone was supposed to follow, but which we're NOT following, because hey, let's just post a completely different plan right before deadline and then never follow up on it just to cause more confusion. And just never say one way or another whether we transferred money to the people we were supposed to, or just say we didn't bother to follow the plan (but also didn't bother to suggest an improved one), because everyone in the game will townread us for it!

[Lost Butterfly]

I hate you all. I hate this game. I hate Mafia.

Particularly since Faraday was the one who wheedled me into playing this in the first place.

Thanks

for that.

Mhork, what made you decide not to follow the plan last night? Also, can people confirm whether they followed it or didn't follow it, because there was a lot of confusion?

EBWOP: But...I don't think I really shared any of that, Molla. Did I? Most of the "weird" stuff was just that I didn't like his reaction to my claim to have won the NK, because he'd sort of went from calling me scum and rushing out to look like he was outing me before I could out him, to then calling me town when it seemed like no one would bite. But he's also said some stuff that looks quite town (e.g., his annoyance over the wagon on him, his calming down once he got to a computer). If he's scum, he's playing really well. Maybe I should paraphrase the QT--it's just tedious and a waste of time.

[Lost Butterfly]

Only way to play in the face of imminent doom.

Being a moron, you mean?

[Lost Butterfly]

Your interpretation, not mine. And I followed the plan.

...

Really

? Who did you transfer your money to? I'd thought you were adamantly against it.

[Lost Butterfly]

Let's try that again

uwop, does it not concern you that confirmed scum is on the wagon? This goes for Hara as well. I'm pretty sure it's a scum victory after my lynch. Nero is going for the win, obviously.

We're also voting certain scum, so that's win/win!

What exactly makes you so confident on eagle-scum?

[Lost Butterfly]

:goodposting:

Are you dolts seriously lynching me? Like, wtf???????

Sarcasm?

*adds one to the "Voided quote strips completely unrelated to scumhunting" tally*

You realize the only possible reason why Nero would be governed twice as town (saving him for the LYLO mislynch because today is no longer MYLO) means I'm confirmed town, right?

Uh...no? Personal problems may be screwing with my memory of the game, and the analysis about leaving him alive sounds plausible, but I don't recall there being a correlation between the governings and your conftowniness.

The "correlation" is that the only reason scum would govern the same

town

player twice is to set him up to be lynched in LYLO. If I were scum (OR if scum had a NK in reserve), today would be MYLO. They would never govern a mislynch in MYLO.

But anyway, you can feel secure in your horrible vote because Nero is obviously not town based on his reactions.

Also, that Nero's "HAHAHAHAHAHA" came before you asked this?

Fair point, I guess, but the idea of a double-govern doesn't strike me as a viable scum option.

For Nero-scum? For Nero-town? For both? Where are you heading with this? The most obvious reason he would is because he's

scum

, and therefore, scum don't want him lynched. Or are you arguing that town governed Nero?

"Really, you called Espeonage confirmed town in a throwaway comment expressing voter's remorse? Well, you're wrong! He wasn't confirmed town at all, and you should have thought he was only SOLID town at earlier on."

Voter's remorse at how you should've seen the signs that he's town is one thing, but acting like he should've been conftown at that point after you already know he's town due to his flip is another. What does griping at me in regards to your incorrect usage of read strength accomplish for you?

Helping my read of you, mostly, because your line of questioning is pointless and this is a stupid, nitpicky argument, so I'm curious to why you've been continuing it.

I'd understand if you suspected me for 180-ing on a townread, despite the fact that I'm pretty obviously town at this point and none of my play makes any sense whatsoever for scum unless I'm deliberately trying to make the game harder for myself as a challenge, but for overstating how town I'd found the player who I'd voted (for which the scum motivation is...um...making my turnaround look worse)?

Well, apologies that my hyperbole sensor is haywire, but...Did I say that was why I voted you?

It's the only reason you'd so much as hinted at?

As you know, LB, I advertised in Market Analyst the night before. Then I saw Mhork(I think?) Do well with his cast a wide net strategy the night before and tried to do the same thing.

It clearly didn't work. I went for Messenger and Wage Freeze specifically because they were useful and in Messenger's case I initially intended to 'go along' with the plan but tell Morph or Pyrotechnics or someone I trusted that I wasn't secretly. Instead we did the claiming thing and I kinda said fuck it.

This feels like a cop-out.

Um...actually...I'd found that explanation quite believable.

See LB, its these crazy lets use the game mechanics to clear people/scum hunt that just makes me think you are scum.

...Logic, plz?

Because I actually have reasons for calling Voided town. You guys were like "he's town lolz". Literally at the same time.

when was the last time UD called me town in the past 3 days? Even if you're talking about something prior to D2-3, why're you asking UD a question like this?

Firstly, he's talking about UD and BBmolla, not UD and you. Secondly, this is something that's been bugging me about you. Why have you been talking with both sides of your mouth, both in this post and overall today? The angles you're pushing today don't seem consistent with each other. Nero is scum, but here are these statements expressing doubt, LB is town, but here are these leading questions to them, Harakiri is town but here are these other leading questions to them, LB is

scum

but here are these leading questions to people like ProHawk who suspect them. I understand casting a wide net, but it feels as though you're looking for stuff you can quote and give a pithy response to rather than actually scumhunting.

[Lost Butterfly]

VOTE: Voidedmafia

[Lost Butterfly]

Garuda, why have you been so passive today?

[Lost Butterfly]

VOTE: Voidedmafia

I don't understand where this vote is coming from.

It's something that's been building up over the past few days, but that was clinched for me by how meatless and middle-of-the-road his stances were today and by how passive everyone seemed about the top two wagons.

Garuda, why have you been so passive today?

I dunno, felt like it. Why do you think Mhork is town again?

Because he's been fairly obvtown for most of the game aside from maybe early Day 1 and a brief spell of laziness on Day 5?

I thought that things in Mhrok's favor were the Medium bit and the push on Nero and the initial claim which seemed pretty town. Other than that, there's not a whole lot pointing to Mhork town, minus the Nero-town theory. I thought that it was unlikely that Mhork would push Nero for so long and then come up with the conspiracy theory calling him town, but the medium bit is just being the mouthpiece for an actual townie, which isn't horribly difficult. The push on Nero doesn't matter a whole lot if they are scum from different sides, and I still can't make heads or tails of the conspiracy theory, considering that he was a strong proponent of the Nero lynch and believed very very strongly that he was scum until he was governed. I can understand people getting uneasy who weren't completely sold on Nero scum beforehand, but Mhork was essentially pusher #1.

Hey, Nacho, thoughts on this:

For Nero-scum? For Nero-town? For both? Where are you heading with this? The most obvious reason he would is because he's scum, and therefore, scum don't want him lynched. Or are you arguing that town governed Nero?

Just in general, really. The same kind of argument that was presented yesterday still applies, only it's riskier for scum now because of how much room the back-to-back lynches would give us after bringing it so close.

But really, Governing him once, as what happened yesterday, makes sense; governing him

twice

just makes me so damn confused about why that the more likely thing to me is Nero-town being defended from behind the scenes.

Doesn't basically everything you've said about Mhork apply more to Voided?

Also, to return the favour, I was expecting either us or

you

to die N1, so that's part of why I don't trust you right now. And is your theory really that Mhork and I concocted a plan together to make myself look scummier AND force me to use the kill as a vig? I

know

that I shouldn't have won it for so little, but obviously something really fucking weird happened last night. Do you think we're going for the "so unlikely that scum would ever be dumb enough to claim this that I'm obviously town" WIFOM despite everyone in the game already trusting me?

[Lost Butterfly]

holy frijole are eagle and prohawk ever giving me the williesI am very confident baldeagle is scum.

I'm in agreement re ProHawk, less so on Eagle. I see how you would be concerned, but I don't see a complete bereftness of town feeling.

So, you guys don't give a fuck whether confirmed scum is on my wagon and that he is barely pushing it? Yeah, uwop is scum and I feel less happy about Hara.

On the one hand, this is stupid. On the other, is this stupid in a scum way? I'm not sure.

I don't think it's scum-stupid. Sounds too frustrated about the described predicament.

Vote: Baldeagle

I hereby refuse to vote LB or Harakiri today (and LB for however much of this game that remains--freely rescind any townreads on me if I do so without good reason). I most likely will not vote muffin or Garuda or Mhork (especially muffin), and while the Baldeagle lynch is fine, I think I'd prefer ProHawk over Bald.

Do you see why the beginning of this post and the end (as well as your eagerness for us to quicklynch eagle right now without more deliberation) don't fit together? Particularly since you'd been in the "Don't quicklynch Nero before massclaim!" camp, like Garuda said.

Also, your "brief fit of paranoia" seemed completely out of nowhere and unsubstantiated by anything you actually mentioned in the thread.

[Lost Butterfly]

I mean, if you think the eagle lynch is not the optimal one, why are you eager for it to happen right now?

[Lost Butterfly]

Hmm.

Muffin, your thoughts on the Voided wagon?

Garuda, why didn't you find the penguin wagon that exciting in this post? What changed your mind?

What does people being passive about the top two wagons have to do with anything? I will acknowledge that Voided has fell off a bit since earlier days, but I wouldn't call his stances meatless and I wouldn't say that he's completely disengaged from the game and stopped giving a shit ala Mhork who stopped doing anything since being the mouthpiece for Pyro.

Thanks for the Mhork townread!

What I said about Mhork is because Mhork went from "oh Nero is scum as hell, let's lynch" to "no no he's town". Voided was also aggressively against him, but his flip wasn't as dramatic as Mhorks. Voided also contradicts himself constantly in a way that looks like he doesn't give a shit about what he's saying anymore, and I would expect him to at least monitor his quotes in order to make sure that he's playing consistently, somewhat. He also has a nice moment where he gets paranoid on me when i act weird, where he makes a small push on you... voided is still trying to figure the game out. Mhrok isn't.

I didn't like how all the lazy votes were falling onto eagle and Harakiri, and thought it might be nice to shake things up a bit. Also, effort and innocence are not always correlated. Mhork may be posting less, but what he does say

feels

more genuine and passionate than Voided. Examples of times Voided has contradicted himself in a townish way? If anything, that's what I'd consider Mhork's paranoid Nero defence and then petulant Nero vote when people ignored him. (Voided just seems to have a lack of focus in his scumhunting. And I'd like his paranoia of me a lot more if he'd followed up on it.)

(And I knew you'd have that reaction to my Mhork read, but tough, I'm not going to pretend he's not townie just to deprive your conspiracy theory of more fodder.)

@Mhork: the reason not to discuss my target in the thread is Countermeasures.

[Lost Butterfly]

Fuck. I've got something like 2-3 hours of sleep within the past thirty-six hours, and can't think straight. I'm really confused right now.

Muffin, do you have a strong objection to either a Voided or baldeagle lynch (as in, you'd prefer to no-lynch rather than get rid of one)? Right now, I'm still leaning toward Voided because he seems like a surer bet, but I'll be around to switch to eagle if necessary. Hey, eagle, why is your vote still on uwop? I'm not quite sure penguin_alien is a good idea because I bought her explanation for the townslip (not so much that it's impossible to fake, but that she bothered to check the OP and was even on the verge of

voting

Garuda).

[Lost Butterfly]

Goddammit, you guys were both scum? Wow, you really had me fooled.

[Lost Butterfly]

UNVOTE: Voidedmafia

Well,

duh

. Of course that was fake.

[Lost Butterfly]

(You realize Garuda only put Voided at L-1, right?)

[Lost Butterfly]

I wasn't sure if I should have strung that along more, but I was kind of paranoid someone would actually come out of the woodworks and hammer.

But anyway, Garuda is town.

[Lost Butterfly]

(Did you really expect me to fall for that?)

[Lost Butterfly]

He was pretty obviously playing along with your reaction test? Particularly since I'm town and he didn't trust me?

[Lost Butterfly]

Yeah, eagle isn't getting lynched today, Nat.

VOTE: Voidedmafia

[Lost Butterfly]

I have a few ideas to who I want to shoot based on how that all went down. The problem is deciding how predictable a shot to go for.

Sorry, Voided! I hope your real life problems get better.

Um...Harakiri, I don't think I ever explicitly called penguin

town

in the QT. Did I? I called her town in the thread, but that was only after the townslip thing.

[Lost Butterfly]

Garuda, why didn't you unvote Voided when your reaction test failed?