Mini 1558 - VisCon: Crossroads [Game Over]

[Desperado]

So even with Neil's selfvote the wagon was still majority-town to Bait.

PS Fitz' catchup was scum-Fitz.

[borkjerfkin]

The only slot I can see in Bait's iso that he definitively called town (other than neil by association) is mine, so what are you talking about?

I don't like how you're shifting from defending your initial point (that...calling someone town because you think their wagon is made up of mostly scum is scummy? this point is bad) to refuting the assertion that he even thought the wagon actually was comprised of scum as if you're conceding that what you were trying to argue is not defensible.

I have very little and not recent experience with fitz: give me more than armchair meta please.

[borkjerfkin]

Wanted to bring this up earlier about Who:

Who went out of his way to attempt to get on the wagon at the end of the day (not even bothering to wait to see if the self-vote counted).

I would not expect this from scum dealing with a town wagon.

[Desperado]

15mins late to the prod...

So
{Desp, pie, Gaiden} scumteam?

All town, try again

So we got the scumteam ok.

Also:

p-p-edit: I guess, but saying I'd rather no-lynch than lynch a claimed VT that he's reading because of nothing other than wagon comp is kinda =\

While I disagree emphatically with the no lynch part, he's inferring that neil is probably town because the wagon on him looks awful.

This isn't an unreasonable position.

How were we supposed to interpret the first quote? Because these look contradictory to me.

[Desperado]

232 is scummy though
I'm on board with that much

this too

[Desperado]

What happened to make 232 suddenly a reasonable thing for town to say?

[Desperado]

Re: Fitz: that's all I have right now

[Desperado]

I don't like how you're shifting from defending your initial point (that...calling someone town because you think their wagon is made up of mostly scum is scummy? this point is bad) to refuting the assertion that he even thought the wagon actually was comprised of scum as if you're conceding that what you were trying to argue is not defensible.

Actually my initial point is that Bait never had an actual reason to think Neil was town, and his defense of the wagon was over the top. Tacking on bullshit like #342 that doesn't even reflect reality (neither Gaiden nor myself had done any retroactive case building) looks like scum scrambling to justify his position.

[borkjerfkin]

How were we supposed to interpret the first quote? Because these look contradictory to me.

this too

I think that advocating for a no-lynch is anti-town - that all I was objecting to there.

The fact that Neil flipped town makes these actions look good to me in hindsight, not bad.

[Desperado]

wut

So if Neil had flipped scum you'd be more likely to think Bait is scum?

That's really, really silly.

[Desperado]

Why on earth were you interpreting Bait's end of day actions as scum protecting a buddy and not WKing town?

[borkjerfkin]

Actually my initial point is that Bait never had an actual reason to think Neil was town, and his defense of the wagon was over the top.

I think he DID have a reason - that he thought the wagon was comprised of scum.

You can argue the merits of how good a tell that is but it does look to me like he legitimately thought this.

p-edit: why?

p-p-edit: I am confused now.

[Desperado]

Yesterday you said Bait was scummy. There are only two options for what Bait was doing at deadline yesterday--WKing town-Neil, or protecting scum-Neil. You said Neil flipping town makes you feel even better about Baitslot. So you had to have been assuming the latter option yesterday.

[Desperado]

And I'll take it a step further and say that had Neil flipped scum, Bait would be nearly conf-town for me.

So basically I think you've got this entire situation assbackwards, and I'm curious as to why.

[borkjerfkin]

Yesterday I thought exactly one thing Bait did was scummy - I certainly wasn't sold on Bait scum. I also didn't particularly think Neil was scum, so my (scum-bait with scum-neil) thing wasn't really terribly much in play for me.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make - why should I be coming at this from the assumption that bait is scum?

p-edit: Explain why you think that and maybe we can get to the bottom of this.

[borkjerfkin]

Here's actually the meat and potatoes of what I'm arguing - why are you just disregarding possible town motivation for Bait not wanting to be on a wagon he thought was full of scumbutts in lieu of pushing the scumbutts he called scumbutts, which is what I feel he was doing.

Your angle kind of assumes that we live in a world where exactly one of neil/bait was necessarily to flip scum.

[Desperado]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make - why should I be coming at this from the assumption that bait is scum?

And now we're back to whether wagon composition is enough justification to form a read.

I guess I'm mainly having an issue with "neil-town makes Bait look better, not worse." That's pretty outrageous no matter how you're interpreting Bait's actions at deadline. At best that means that town-Bait was blindly correct about town-Neil, which shouldn't make you feel better about him.

PEdit: Because I think Bait's reasoning was trash. It wasn't "full of scumbutts," it was 5 town 2 scum. And the reason that he tacked on in #342 wasn't genuine.

[Desperado]

Like, if it had been mid-day and the wagon on Neil was Desperado-Gaiden-Majiffy...I could see him coming to that conclusion.

But that wagon wasn't driven by his scumreads.

[borkjerfkin]

I guess I'm mainly having an issue with "neil-town makes Bait look better, not worse." That's pretty outrageous no matter how you're interpreting Bait's actions at deadline. At best that means that town-Bait was blindly correct about town-Neil, which shouldn't make you feel better about him.

I think we're kind of talking past each other, so I'll try and explain better:

He wasn't really WKing Neil as much as he was attacking the people on the wagon. I think that sort of defense is more likely to come from town that has really no other good way to read the slot sans connections than scum taking a hugely roundabout way to defend someone he knows is town. If Neil had been scum, that might've been the only way he felt he could justify defending the slot without having to lie about it.

Overall I see town saying "I'm not willing to vote with a wagon that has my scumreads on it" way more than I see scum saying it.

I don't see why using bad (in your opinion here) reasoning to give the correct read on someone is more likely from scum.

I feel like I might be getting a little conf-biasy here, for what that's worth.

As far as "who was on the wagon" stuff - I really don't see him townreading anyone on the wagon explicitly unless you infer that "I think Desp/Pie/Gaiden are my biggest scumreads = everyone else is definitely town" I mean 1) there is going to be a max of 3 scum on any wagon so one with 2 is still kinda bad and 2) getting reads is a fluid thing.

[Desperado]

The other part of it is that I don't think Bait was "getting reads" at all. He was shadowing Kalimar in the early game and he sheeped GIF's scumteam. Coupled with him overdefending a wagon on a VT...it just all reads newb-scum to me.

[borkjerfkin]

I'm not really getting 'newb' vibes in general from him. He's way too assertive for that label.

I will endeavor to keep an open mind here, but this isn't clicking for me right now.

[Majiffy]

I think GIF was killed for fear, not for a crumb.

[Majiffy]

I'm going to pour through ISOs later tonight.

[havingfitz]

Read through cont from Page 9:
 
Page 9)
- Lots of prod dodging...prodding...bitching.
- Gaiden offers his vote up for suggestion.
 
Page 10)
- Bait and Brian both express reservations over the Konowa/neil wagon.
- Desp decides he wants Bait lynched instead (trying to keep his avg 1.000)
- Desp not confident neil will flip scum (#256)....
- Desp decides hiplop should die too (which I sort of agree with)
 
Page 11-12)
- zzzzz...waiting for hammer to fall.
 
Page 13)
- Who votes Bait.  Bad Who.
 
Page 14)
- neil is gone.
- Several complaints that the deadline lynch seemed to happen suddenly and impede conversation.  Too funny.
 
Page 15)
- I join the game (yeah!)
- I've liked Kalimar most of the game but I must say his Dice vote post (#358) is annoying.
- Scum Gaiden would have shot GIF?  Did Scum Gaiden shoot GIF?
 
Page 16)
- I expected Desp to vote for me (Biat ~suspicions and my comments towards him) but Brian vote on me is ??
- Kalimar's dice explanation works for me.
- Desp incorrectly meta'ing my ever popular catch up posts.
- Desp debating bait with bork. 
-- I do not recall bork calling scum...I just remember bork saying he thought Bait had a better shot of flipping scum than neil.  That does not mean he THOUGHT bait was scum and therefore Post 412 is a load of crap.
Caught up.
 
VOTE: Desperado

[Majiffy]

Well now that you've offered us a handy little recap of the game, how about some original thought?