Mafiascum.net

↑ Lowercase wrote:If he was bussed it seems like the most likely busser would be shaddowez.

Or BBT or yourself. I doubt that Mathilda or Yuriko are the other scum.
I think generally the 3rd / 4th votes are most likely to be bus votes.

↑ Mathilda wrote:
Probability then is that one of the remaining Mafia did not vote for dwlee, so why remove one of the potential suspects? Even if the remaining scum voted successfully for dwlee early on, you'd still want to keep the pool of better suspects available for a lynch.

My best guess is to try and implicate you. Dierfire was the only person that was scumreading you, for whatever reason, and the partner is probably going to try use that as an arguement to get you lynched. It's odd though

This suggests to me that either the remaining Mafia is a beginner, or they suspected Dierfire of being a power role. I don't remember him hinting at it though.

Realistically I think the only two cleared players, for now, are Mathilda and Yuriko.
Shadowwz, BBT or Lowercase could have bussed and could be the remaining scum.
Myself or Grat could be the scum partner who didn't bus.

My best guess right now is that it's between Shadowwz and Grat, that's more a gut feeling though.

Dierfire was the only person that was scumreading you, for whatever reason, and the partner is probably going to try use that as an arguement to get you lynched.

It's pretty common that this framing argument gets brought up, but there are a couple problems with it. The first is that in practice framing doesn't work because you're removing a player that is likely to push that slot. Generally, you won't even break even if you want to increase suspicion.

The other is that it's a poor reason to nightkill regardless. There is no reason for scum to try to push a lynch on someone specific. It's better to shoot people you could not possibly score lynches on or that have good reads. In practice, most scum do this (at least from what I've seen).

Checking in. On my way home after two exhausting days. Will probably read and think tmr.

Still reading (on phone) but


IIoA since D2. After reading her post which contains many thoughts and direction in quite lost at where her position is. Plus her wall of vote count with exactly no elaboration on it.

(Will try to re-read D1 before weekend)

**I'm quite lost

Do you think it's likely that the second vote on a scum wagon was a scum partner bussing d1?

I started tallying up the order of votes in a game that I have just completed on another forum and we found it very useful in showing up who was being opportunistic and why people voted when they did. It's a lot of information in one post and I felt it better to have one post that is factual and to keep the speculation and hypotheses to a separate post. It also takes a fair while to collate those vote counts and to check for errors. This requires a completely different mindset. I am surprised that posting information that is helpful to town formatted in a way that allows one to quickly check hypotheses would merit a lynch vote.

That's what I meant with IIoA (information instead of analysis). It's not meaningful unless you have some analysis, which you don't.

Dray: I don't know, I'm not good at VCA. Will try to think about this one overnight

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:That's what I meant with IIoA (information instead of analysis). It's not meaningful unless you have some analysis, which you don't.

Do you actually read posts?

↑ Mathilda wrote: It's a lot of information in one post and I felt it better to have one post that is factual and to keep the speculation and hypotheses to a separate post. It also takes a fair while to collate those vote counts and to check for errors. This requires a completely different mindset.

Analysis:

10 - MasonP/dwlee99 votes opportunistically on Zerosummer/Gratuitous. This takes Gratuitous's slot up to L-1 which would be very risky if Gratuitous was also Mafia. dwlee stays on the Gratuitous lynch wagon until he's the only one left (23)
then unvotes (26). This strongly suggests that Gratuitous is town.

27 - dwlee99 votes for Yuriko as soon as she votes for him (25)


2 & 13 - Dierfire votes for dwlee99 twice which could explain his death


34 - BBT is the second person to vote for Yuriko, but unvotes at 37 when there were four people on the wagon and it was at L-1. I quizzed him at the time and he said that he felt that a lynch was imminent (which it kind of was). This could be
construed as a scummy move because it was obvious that no one else was likely to be lynched at this point, but he was encouraging people to vote dwlee99 when it was only him and Yuriko. So this suggests town.


32 - shaddowwez is third vote on a lynch wagon on Mathilda which was equal with the lynch wagon on Yuriko (30). A replacement comes in and unvotes. An opportunistic move at this point would have been to jump on the Yuriko lynch wagon or to at least not unvote. This suggests that shaddowwez is town.

06 - Dwanyth is the only one voting on Mathilda, but then unvotes and joins a lynch wagon that is developing on Gratuitous (09). He is then immediately followed by dwlee99 (10). At the time this was the largest lynch wagon. This looks very suspicious but he then unvotes at (17) and votes necargoface/shaddowwez instead (22). If he is scum then why did he not continue with the lynch wagon? Suspicion was falling on necargo at the time so maybe he thought this was a better bet, especially as there were still quite a few days until the end of the phase.


Preliminary conclusions are that Gratuitous is town and probably shaddowwez too. Dwanyth is the most suspicious. Further reference to the pages in which these events occur can shed further light on the subject.


01 - BBT: Yuriko
02 - MasonP/dwlee99 : Dierfire
03 - BBT: [Yuriko]
04 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko
05 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT
06 - Honest/Mathilda: Draynth
07 - Honest/Mathilda: [Draynth]
08 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
09 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
10 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth, MasonP/dwlee99
11 - BBT: Honest/Mathilda
12 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous
13 - MasonP/dwlee99 : [Dierfire]
14 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire
15 - BBT: Honest/Mathilda, Axwell/Lowercase
16 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT
17 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, [Draynth], MasonP/dwlee99
18 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
19 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [Yuriko], BBT, MasonP/dwlee99
20 - necargoface/shaddowwez: Yuriko
21 - necargoface/shaddowwez: [Yuriko]
22 - necargoface/shaddowwez: Draynth
23 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [BBT], MasonP/dwlee99
24 - Yuriko: BBT
25 - dwlee99 : Yuriko
26 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [MasonP/dwlee99]
27 - Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99
28 - BBT: Honest/Mathilda, [Axwell/Lowercase]
29 - Honest/Mathilda: [Zerosummer/Gratuitous], Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
30 - Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99, Gratuitous
31 - BBT: [Honest/Mathilda]
32 - Honest/Mathilda: Dierfire, BBT, [necargoface/shaddowwez]
33 - Gratuitous: BBT, Lowercase
34 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT
35 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda
36 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda, shaddowwez
37 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez
38 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT
39 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT, Lowercase

Just thought I'd add, vote count analysis is just one bit of evidence that needs to be taken into consideration along with everything else. It can only tell part of the story.

06 - Dwanyth is the only one voting on Mathilda, but then unvotes and joins a lynch wagon that is developing on Gratuitous (09). He is then immediately followed by dwlee99 (10). At the time this was the largest lynch wagon. This looks very suspicious but he then unvotes at (17) and votes necargoface/shaddowwez instead (22). If he is scum then why did he not continue with the lynch wagon? Suspicion was falling on necargo at the time so maybe he thought this was a better bet, especially as there were still quite a few days until the end of the phase.

06 was my RV.
09 was me voting Zerosummer to see what reaction he would have from the pressure.
22 was me voting on a scum read, I was the one drawing suspicion onto Necargo. I don't see your arguement about me being the most suspicious

↑ Mathilda wrote:Just thought I'd add, vote count analysis is just one bit of evidence that needs to be taken into consideration along with everything else. It can only tell part of the story.

Also yeah, I was just about to add this

in 410 it feels like your hitting around. It's a lot of information, not much analysis.
All posts before then were pure info. I'm ok if you post info and analysis separately, but now it looks like you're only doing the second part because I'm poking you.

any thoughts?

↑ Lowercase wrote:Did you ever do that reads list?

Was this in regards to my read on Grat? If so, here it is:

Grat joins the game, and immediately jumps on the Yuri wagon. He blames Yuri for hypocrisy in regards to the L-1 vote, but doesn't take the time to understand that Yuri's beef with Necargo was that he put someone at L-1 with his RV, not just that it was an RVS started wagon. He then uses her response time as an argument, which while it's possible is not strong enough IMO to use as evidence against somebody.

His argument againt Yuri's 98 and 99 are incredibly weak as well, considering you can't vote for everybody you think might be scum. There's no reason to point suspicion at somebody for having a slight scum read and not voting that person.

↑ Gratuitous wrote:Additionally I concur with BBT's #153.

There's a lot of stuff going on in that post, including questions and comments directed at multiple people. Just a blanket "I agree" is lazy and trying to jump on a wagon without strong proof.

With the flip, this post makes my skin crawl:

↑ Gratuitous wrote:@Lowercase, I know what you're saying with him. At this point I just can't see YJ & DWlee as scum together, and believe YJ is most likely to flip scum

His reasoning for suspecting Draynth is also very weak. While I actually do agree with the post that seems to soft defend Lee, the rest of it actually makes sense in context.

With nowhere else piquing my interest just yet, I'm comfortable putting my vote here for now.

VOTE: Grat

↑ Mathilda wrote:10 - MasonP/dwlee99 votes opportunistically on Zerosummer/Gratuitous. This takes Gratuitous's slot up to L-1 which would be very risky if Gratuitous was also Mafia. dwlee stays on the Gratuitous lynch wagon until he's the only one left (23)
then unvotes (26). This strongly suggests that Gratuitous is town.

- What do you think of the possibility that lee was newbscum, and thought an early bus would be good for credibility if the lynch actually went through?

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:in 410 it feels like your hitting around. It's a lot of information, not much analysis.
All posts before then were pure info. I'm ok if you post info and analysis separately, but now it looks like you're only doing the second part because I'm poking you.

Yeah whatever.

Will get to this later today.

↑ shaddowez wrote:

@Mathilda

- What do you think of the possibility that lee was newbscum, and thought an early bus would be good for credibility if the lynch actually went through?

I think dwlee99 was newbscum for sure. I would think that newbscum would be more likely to stand up for their buddies though rather than lynch them. But saying that, making a big point of distancing yourself is also a classic mistake. Normally this happens when suspicion falls on either of the scum and up to that point they have been defending the other scum. It's possible that being early in the game dwlee wasn't really aware of how majority voting works and what L-1 was so just jumped on any lynch wagon to blend in.

↑ Mathilda wrote:
I think dwlee99 was newbscum for sure.

Now I'm off the tablet I'll back up this statement. Either he wasn't paying attention to the game or wasn't sure of the game mechanics and the nuances of the game. This gives us clues as to how we can expect him to have interacted with his fellow scum. I don't think there would have been any sophisticated strategy being employed in terms of WIFOMing or much thought given to whether he was implicating his colleague or not.

↑ Dwlee99 wrote:
I just realized the thread existed. Completely forgot I was playing, sorry.

↑ Dwlee99 wrote:Btw, I didn't vote zerosummer, so idk why it's there on the vote count..

Or for that matter, if he completely forgot that he was playing this game, maybe he completely forgot who his scum buddy was!

Catching up; couple of posts to note.

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:But really when it comes to it, it might be another dreadful day with dwlee alive tunneling and refusing to scumhunt all over again

This feels town. Yuri had expressed interest in a different lynch but very quickly come back around to lynching Dwlee.

↑ Mathilda wrote:
One could argue that what you have done is a scummy move. If you were Mafia and you knew that dwlee was town, then you basically start a lynch wagon by being the second to vote (not the first, that's too dangerous, Yuri would get the blame in this scenario, someone who is also pinging people's scumdar, and one vote does not a lynch wagon make). And then when you're confident that the wagon can roll without you, you jump off without giving any specific reason why you have changed your mind and are then free of blame when the flip happens.

So I'm interested, what specifically feels off to you? Unvoting doesn't stop us exploring other possibilities unless you think that the chance of the ban hammer falling high. Or do you think we were becoming too complacent that we have chosen the right person?

This also feels town. Mathilda thought I was scum distancing from a town mislynch - I don't see her posting this knowing her scum buddy was about to be lynched.

Also, looking back over pages 13/14, it looks like LC was trying to make a big deal of my unvote. I feel like he was trying to tie me to Dwlee knowing he was going to flip scum and that he could use this to push me on D2.

↑ Draynth wrote:Is it likely that Dwlee was bussed day 1 in people's opinions? I've never lynched scum day 1 before so I have no idea

It's hard to say. If he was bussed, it was almost certainly LC.

↑ Lowercase wrote:If he was bussed it seems like the most likely busser would be shaddowez.

Oh really? Why?

↑ Draynth wrote:
I think generally the 3rd / 4th votes are most likely to be bus votes.

What is this based on?

↑ Draynth wrote:My best guess right now is that it's between Shadowwz and Grat, that's more a gut feeling though.

Gut reads D2 are pretty bad. Can you expand on both of these reads please?

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:

vote: Mathilda

IIoA since D2. After reading her post which contains many thoughts and direction in quite lost at where her position is. Plus her wall of vote count with exactly no elaboration on it.

I get why you're doing this but in light of my recent post about Mathilda, do you still think she is scum? Further, is this really your strongest reasoning for scum on D2?

↑ shaddowez wrote:

snip Grat case

VOTE: Grat

I quite liked the case - though I disagree with the conclusion. Do you think scum put their buddy to L-1 super early in the game? That would be pretty ballsy for newb!scum to pull off.

At this point, I'm pretty sure the final scum is in Draynth/LC.

I'm only willing to vote between these two Today and for now;

VOTE: Draynth

This feels good.