Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[Florestan]

Also continuing with the buddying people who scumread me, Panther is town.

[Dunnstral]

Basically Ploben looks like a counter-wagon to Karnos

Even though it was kind of the other way around in how they formed

I'll get to 395 when I have my notes in front of me on PC tomorrow. Mobile for now

You have no doubts on ploben? Given what you said?
I think his fast and loose tone in the beginning bodes well but there are certainly some flags

Maybe I'm biased because he's getting wagoned for the wrong reasons and I think everyone on his wagon is scummy but I was thinking he's town

Did you read all of my post 276 because I explain my read in there

Also I want to go back to this post:

My reads. I'd rather not post this, but I have to admit it looks like I might get lynched, best to get the information out so that town can gain something from my death.

town
----
karnos - the only player I know for sure is myself.
Ranger - if ranger is scum we are doomed.
Shadow_step - seems to be using the sort of logic a town should use to catch scum.
Scott Brosius - i think he is misguided town, from my experiences a lot of town players who haven't played through a game with me think my posting style is scummy
AlpacaAlpaca - i think just a newbie town putting way too much credence in wiki info
Chip Butty - probably town, but it has crossed my mind that a scum might want to defend me to build some town cred when i flip. 80% likely town
Bulletproof Ben - can't read, no posts. statistically more likely to be town than scum.
Florestan - probably town that is just coming to some wrong conclusions, but could be scum
duppin - weird RVS vote planting and refusal to move, lack of recent posts. seems scummy to me.
ploben - either scum or very stubborn town who refuses to admit an error. uses a lot of non-logic and contradicts himself a lot, but I am starting to wonder if he is just dumb town
Dunnstral - one of two types. either very arrogant town that thinks he has everything figured out when he obviously doesn't, or scum trying to control the game in a very aggressive manner. if scum, I could easily see him turn on ploben on day 2 after i flip town. If town, he will probably convince himself he was right about ploben and go for chip, sinking the game for town if chip flips town. dangerous player for town either way.
BTD6_Maker - based on my experience playing with town.BTD and scum.BTD, this is clearly scum.BTD
----
scum

Karnos top town reads are Ranger, Shadow_Step, Scott Brosius, and AlpacaAlpaca

Like what, that just feels so fake that his strongest town reads are on the people who've posted the least

on the opposite side of the spectrum: BTD6, Dunnstral, ploben, duppin, and florestan

That's literally the 5 people who are voting or trying to vote him

Chip butty is 80% likely town at place 5 on his list, so he must be feeling REALLY good about the four people above chip

Karnos definitely isn't acting like he's got the game on lockdown though

Also I just realized that he has ploben listed as THIRD most likely scum, and I'm more likely to be mafia apparently and BTD6 is more likely too

That's.... just contradictory to what he's been saying, he's basically been saying he thought I was more likely to be town than scum the whole time in his other posts

And to top everything off he brings out the "statistically more likely to be town than scum" for ben

Every single one of these reads feel fake and after analyzing this I really just want to get Karnos, this whole list is made up

Also continuing with the buddying people who scumread me, Panther is town.

I agree that Panther is town

[Dunnstral]

Florestan your vote never made it to Karnos, did you intend to vote him or not?

[Florestan]

I did, but now I want to vote ranger

VOTE: Ranger

[Dunnstral]

Man that's a scummy vote.....

[ploben]

Not entirely.

[Dunnstral]

Not entirely.

?

What are your thoughts on Florestan so far then

[Florestan]

Man that's a scummy vote.....

what? I already explained it.

[Chip Butty]

Okay, I wanna revisit the first few pages and explain in a little more detail my thinking (and, in some spots, lack thereof) as we moved through it.

First, I have to make a confession. I went into the game without having read the wiki setup entry, and having only given the PRs a cursory glance. I thought, "Hey, we'll have an RVS phase, time to catch up with that shit later".

9 - 17: Just RVS jokey stuff. I treated #17 as the joke it was because I knew there were no N0 actions.
18:

That

post.
19: I RVS-vote Ranger, but I had a little serious intent, because her 'ninja' ref pinged me a bit. Of course, as soon as I hit "Submit", it struck me that scum don't need to breadcrumb their roles, so I felt a bit embarrassed. [CURRENT THOUGHT: UNLESS they didn't recruit the traitor - need to check the timestamps]. At this point, having read #18, I went back and read the IC Role PM. Ding! It's supposed to be Mod-confirmed, and we haven't seen that. Hmmm. It's partly because I only read up on what an IC was at this late stage, that I find it entirely credible that others (notably ploben) were equally slack in their preparation.
21: I vote ploben over his "claim". At this point, my main motivation was to shift my vote off Ranger before anybody pointed out how stupid (as it seemed to me then) it was. I wasn't thinking too seriously that it was an actual slip, but I thought it was worth pursuing, since I had nothing else to pursue.
22: As has been pointed out, ploben doesn't just say "Joke, dude..." He says the Mod will confirm it later. He also reacts defensively to Florestan's question in 20.

Continued in part 2...

[ploben]

Not entirely.

?

What are your thoughts on Florestan so far then

The sheep on Panther to push Ranger is good to progress the game. Ranger needs to check in with some content.

Florestan called out Ranger back in 163 on the reads. But I didn't like 341 at all. Pushing on a player is a fantastic test and 341 just diffuses that all together. It will make for an interesting association if we lynch Karnos today. I have mixed feelings on Forestan's alignment so I guess null at this point.

[Florestan]

We should never have a lynch this early in the game.

[Dunnstral]

19: I RVS-vote Ranger, but I had a little serious intent, because her 'ninja' ref pinged me a bit. Of course, as soon as I hit "Submit", it struck me that scum don't need to breadcrumb their roles, so I felt a bit embarrassed. [CURRENT THOUGHT: UNLESS they didn't recruit the traitor - need to check the timestamps]. At this point, having read #18, I went back and read the IC Role PM. Ding! It's supposed to be Mod-confirmed, and we haven't seen that. Hmmm. It's partly because I only read up on what an IC was at this late stage, that I find it entirely credible that others (notably ploben) were equally slack in their preparation.

Wait you were serious with that? I thought you were joking when you said that...

That was pre-game and we didn't even have our role pms when ranger posted that
I would know since I was there, never got a role pm until like 20 minutes later (When the mod announced that he sent them out...)

[ploben]

19: I RVS-vote Ranger, but I had a little serious intent, because her 'ninja' ref pinged me a bit. Of course, as soon as I hit "Submit", it struck me that scum don't need to breadcrumb their roles, so I felt a bit embarrassed. [CURRENT THOUGHT: UNLESS they didn't recruit the traitor - need to check the timestamps].

I think Post 3 came in before the PMs for the roles for this game.

[ploben]

22: As has been pointed out, ploben doesn't just say "Joke, dude..." He says the Mod will confirm it later. He also reacts defensively to Florestan's question in 20.

Defensively? You mean this?

@Florestan
Do you find a player trying really hard in RVS is alignment indicative? If so, which alignment?

I'd hardly call that defensive.

[Dunnstral]

OK it was like an hour later not 20 minutes

also that's before the INITIAL role pms so mafia wouldn't have even selected "ninja" or anything

I'll just chalk that one up as another dumb town slip

[ploben]

We should never have a lynch this early in the game.

I don't like this continuing to diffuse the power of town's only weapon...voting and lynching.

[karnos]

My reads. I'd rather not post this, but I have to admit it looks like I might get lynched, best to get the information out so that town can gain something from my death.
-snip-
Ranger - if ranger is scum we are doomed.
-snip-

I may have disagreed with every single thing you wrote in this post, and some of it lacks any basis in my opinion. there's so much I'm just not going to touch most of it

I just want you to explain this. Are you seriously town reading Ranger purely based on some assumption that the game is unwinnable if Ranger is mafia? Where are you getting that from? If Ranger is mafia, the game is surely unwinnable if everyone thought like you. Please be as verbose as possible in explaining your thought here

A lot of new stuff to respond to. I want to go over this first because I think some silly conclusions are being drawn.

In another game I used to play, MTG, there is a phrase calling "playing to your outs". It means that sometimes you might need to make a play in a tough situation that would usually be considered a bad play, but it actually makes sense if you realize it is your only chance to win the game. That is what I am talking about with ranger. At the time I was posting reads, town in general was extremely polarized, either against me or against ploben. It seemed much certain that one or the other of us was getting lynched, every active player had made a statement one way or another and it didn't look like anyone was changing their mind. In addition, dunnstral & chip butty were taking hard stands on the issue, to me it looked like the perfect storm for scum to misslynch a townie and then easily push people to misslynch another townie on day 2.

To me, the obvious out is scum on my wagon. If I flip town, and the scum pushing my wagon get counter lynched after my flip, town can win. That is a win I can shoot for. Worrying about ranger is counterproductive because even if I figured ranger was scum, there is no way she is getting lynched. I can't win if ranger is scum, because it would be a huge flip for me to suddenly call her scum. Now, you have come in with a fresh perspective, and maybe the game won't be so polarized between ploben and I, but when I wrote the reads list that is how I felt.

It's not so huge ploy. If you really think I'm scum trying to get people to lynch town ranger, well whatever, think that if you want, as soon as I flip you will know better. Now if you think ranger is scum after I flip town despite my thinking she isn't... then I don't know what to say.

[Dunnstral]

Man that's a scummy vote.....

what? I already explained it.

The reason I said it's scummy is because it's coming at the time where Panther is voting and talking about Ranger and suddenly you're up for voting Ranger when you wanted Karnos earlier

[karnos]

We should never have a lynch this early in the game.

I don't like this continuing to diffuse the power of town's only weapon...voting and lynching.

You know, a lynch is just as effective 1 hour before deadline as it is now.

Oh wait... it was something scummy... I get it... YOU WERE JOKING.

[karnos]

Man that's a scummy vote.....

what? I already explained it.

The reason I said it's scummy is because it's coming at the time where Panther is voting and talking about Ranger and suddenly you're up for voting Ranger when you wanted Karnos earlier

Maybe it wasn't scummy, maybe florestan just likes to joke too.

(I hope my sarcasm is obvious.)

[Dunnstral]

I have to say that calling for a quicklynch also pings me quite hard. What's the rush? Day lasts two weeks. We should use as much time as we can to maximize our chances of hitting scum D1.

Just letting you know that this line is way worse than anything I've said regarding a quicklynch

Please do explain the town incentive to quick lynch. Time is a resource. Even if you are 99.99% sure of your reads on the guy sitting in L-1, you should still hold off hammering as long as possible to potentially collect more information.

You know, a lynch is just as effective 1 hour before deadline as it is now.

[ploben]

We should never have a lynch this early in the game.

I don't like this continuing to diffuse the power of town's only weapon...voting and lynching.

You know, a lynch is just as effective 1 hour before deadline as it is now.

Oh wait... it was something scummy... I get it... YOU WERE JOKING.

No. Just...no.

[Dunnstral]

Check out post 420 because that's the dankest slip you're gonna see this game

When karnos is being voted: Time is a resource

When people start to vote Ranger: A lynch is just as effective 1 hour before deadline as it is now

[Chip Butty]

Part 2:

23: Posted just

one minute

after #22, we have the so-called "soft-rescind". So ploben has gone from saying the Mod will post the conf later, to soft-rescind in just a minute. If he's just joking around, why do that?
24, 25: To-ing and fro-ing b/w Florestan and ploben. ploben still looks a bit defensive for RVS.
26: I recognize that it would be in an insane claim for scum to make, and unvote. At this point, it hasn't yet dawned on me that, hey, maybe ploben, like me, hadn't read up on ICs when he made the "claim". I query about when the Mod would post the confirmation, because i didn't quite get what lproben was on about when he asked if my vote would be on him the whole day.
27: Duppin just brushes off the lproben "claim" as a joke and urges us to lynch karnos, with no reason given. At this point he had already RVS-voted karnos. This pinged me, because why not just run with the lproben lynch train, which at least had the "claim" behind it, however flimsy? Instead, he tries to start a wagon on karnos with EVEN LESS JUSTIFICATION - in fact, none. In 38, I ask duppin to give us a reason to vote karnos, even a joke reason. In 40, he admits he has absolutely no reason at all. This seemed odd to me - he was hosing down the case on lproben as the result of a joke, and at the very same time, trying to start a wagon on karnos for admittedly no reason at all.

Continued Part 3 (later...)

[Chip Butty]

Wait you were serious with that? I thought you were joking when you said that...

That was pre-game and we didn't even have our role pms when ranger posted that
I would know since I was there, never got a role pm until like 20 minutes later (When the mod announced that he sent them out...)

Well, I was 90% joking, but the 'ninja' had pinged me so when I needed an RVS vote I went with that. Hadn't checked the timestamps but thought I would do it later.