Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Not Known 15]

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both).

Wrong - A2 has both.

I don't know what to make of NK15's claim - both the content, or how fast he did it. Thoughts, anyone?

PEdit: I don't see what the utility of a mass "I don't counterclaim" is. I won't be doing it until someone convinces me it's worthwhile.

PEdit2: I also don't see that "I don't counterclaim" is a necessary statement; if one doesn't say anything one way or the other, isn't that also just an "I don't counterclaim?"

(I agree with Irrelephant that the current speed and content of the game is very hard to keep up with right now. )

The problem with no "I don't counterclaim" is a CC tomorrow by someone who was barely active and claims to have "missed" my claim.

[Not Known 15]

For example, I just noticed a possibility that i had not considered, and now need to play out. What if a Jailkeeper claim (we have one) is met by a doctor cc. Have to play that out....Will post when analyzed.

A doctor is NOT a cc to Jailkeeper. Nor is a Tracker.

[teacher]

I don't know what to make of NK15's claim - both the content, or how fast he did it. Thoughts, anyone?

The speed with which he did it -- without having the theory validated -- suggests scum to me. You all have pointed out holes already, though I need to game them to see if they are in fact holes. IF there are wholes, identifying the protective role first does not help town, but hurts it. Thus, it could be protective role hunting.

Please NOBODY cc OR disclaim while I think on the A2 setup (since a jailkeeper claim and doc claim are NOT in fact counterclaims).

[Oxy]

No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.

We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.

There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.

[Oxy]

this shit is scummy as fuck, teacher + flicker. Just saying.

[Oxy]

To make it easy.

If you are the cop, the neapolitan, or the jailkeeper, please counter claim.

If you are not the cop, the neapolitan, or the jailkeeper, please say, "I do not cc"

[Flicker]

If you are the cop, the neapolitan, or the jailkeeper, please counter claim.

But cop and neopolitan aren't counterclaims, are they?

And what, exactly, about "this shit" makes me scummy?

[Oxy]

Yes, they are counterclaims to the JK

[Oxy]

cop and neapolitan are CC's because there is no setup with cop + JK or Nea + JK

[Oxy]

first instinct is flicker's dumb tell is fake, but it could be a legit town tell

[Flicker]

Isn't it only a counterclaim if a doctor or neopolitan prevents the existence of a jailkeeper?

PEdit: Oh, okay, you're right. Sorry, this whole thing is very confusing to me...

[Oxy]

not doctor. Doctor is not a cc.

Flicker, Are you the neapolitan, the cop, or the JK?

[Irrelephant11]

No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.

We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.

There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.

Your last sentence makes sense. But "clearing NK15" isn't totally possible, is it? Like, we could be in

C1

nope reread it, umm... C3? Yeah, could we be in C3 without a counterclaim and have NK15 still be scum?

Also, I want to follow my town read on Oxy, but can someone verify that this is a good idea? I feel out of my depth.

[teacher]

Im still trying to game out A2 and see if theres a lock way to do this. I dont want this to be a protective pr hunt. So Im going to try to gamesolve.

Failing that, Im going to try to determine whether it helps or hurts town to respond to the claim at all.

Im not going to respond at the speed you want, because speed encourages misdecisions. Indeed, just as NK's speed made me suspect his claim, your insistence on it is making me suspect you. I will post my reflections when they are secure.

[Flicker]

Sorry, not doctor, I meant cop. That's what I get for not quoting.

I don't know if I should answer that. What if you're role fishing??

Gosh, it'd be nice if the IC (or any other players, for that matter) weighed in on this... In fact, I'm gonna step back for a bit and wait for more people to post.

PEdit: Irrelephant, I don't know what you mean by "follow my town read on Oxy." Do you mean sheep Oxy/follow his ideas?

[Not Known 15]

No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.

We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.

There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.

Your last sentence makes sense. But "clearing NK15" isn't totally possible, is it? Like, we could be in

C1

nope reread it, umm... C3? Yeah, could we be in C3 without a counterclaim and have NK15 still be scum?

Also, I want to follow my town read on Oxy, but can someone verify that this is a good idea? I feel out of my depth.

We can clear me. All what is needed is a massclaim by everyone.

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah, Oxy seems town to me, so I want to take his very insistent advice, but I'm also nervous that he could be giving bad advice, intentionally or not

[Meji Fan]

No CC from me

[Oxy]

correct, c3 is the one setup where it doesn't clear. scum would have to be very lucky to hit this exactly. But this resolves itself later with our first flipped pr.

You guys need to cc or not cc. I'm done arguing with you, but at minimum no town should place a vote until cc's are all out.

@Thor I know a lot changed since I asked you my last question. Could you please talk about what good strategy is here, from an IC perspective? <3 again.

[Oxy]

okay one more try tho - Think about it from this perspective. If you are the cop, the jk, or the neapolitan, and you claim now, you guarantee we, AT WORST, trade 1 pr for 1 scum. And that's a pro-town trade.

[Nauci]

I think claim strats are super complicated and would like to see Thor weigh in before we continue

[teacher]

MY earlier general theory does not work because of C2 and A2 combined, as best I can tell. Or it gets too unwieldy for me to play out well.

So what to do about the fact that we have a claim that --

if true

-- would put us in Row 2 of the setup? Should we counter it or not? I think yes, in the way Oxy suggests. What does the board think of the below?

Oxy's Suggestion

Countering the extant claim at the first level reveals a (cop, neopolitan, jailkeeper). If there is a counter, there are 2 suspects. They reveal actions for info. Lynch among them for a lock scum ID by day 3 at worst (mislynch), PLUS the info from the true PR. At worst, after night 3, it is 3:1, with hopefully usable info.

But if no counterclaim from those powers, NK's claim could still be falsified if there is a tracker AND a doctor - C3 as oxy identifies in 418. But its not as unlikely as he claims. At this stage, it is exactly a 25% chance. So how to address this: presumably a mass "pr no pr claim" without identifying role, as this would (a) validate NK's claim in full if 0-1 pr claims; (b) create a 3 suspect pool if 2pr claims; (c) create a 4 suspect pool INCLUDING BOTH MAFIA if 3pr claims. Option c is guaranteed lock town, so cannot happen. Playing out options A-B further:

• No PR claim (option A): NK is lock town, and kept mafia (no night kill assumption). He reveals action. Board kills target. D3 begins at 5:1. Good.
• One PR claim: NK is now lock town. The other claimaint is probably real too (A2, B2), but could still be false because of C2. NK leads townblock that other claimant MUST follow for all days. Have alternative PR say reveal role and action.
  • IF claimed doctor and NK dies N2, claimant scum. Again D4 begins 3:1.
  • If claimant tracker, NK will die N2. Must assess reasonability of tracker's N1 and n2 actions.
• Two PR claim: clear three suspect pool. Select board-cleared person (Elephant?) to receive PMs from two claimaints identifying roles. A contradiction narrows it to two suspects. If they claim consistent with C3, then there remain three suspects. Doctor reveals. Mafia must kill him, so lynch among remaining two. If mislynch, D3 lynch is guaranteed scum (doctor if doctor survives night; 3d claimant if doctor dies). Worst case-D4 starts 3:1 with info.

If this gets validated, I will respond in the manner Oxy desires.

[Oxy]

btw, it's d2 now, teacher. FMPOV, all reads, including my read on elephant, are in limbo until after cc's give us a better understanding of the game state.

[teacher]

I agree. I assume you are talking about the last option in my gameout. In that situation, none of the pr claims are cleared. We must clear though use of someone who scans town but has not claimed PR. But I admit my head is hurting right now from trying to play this out so much. I will wait to see what IC suggests, but Im inclined to buy into your plan as you can tell.

[Oxy]

oh, just read your plan better. I'm pretty sure that the PM thing is completely verboten.