Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Krazy]

Can we do a pre-dance vote? Who all supports dance 1 no lynch, vs dance 1 lynch, *on the assumption the excluded male flips town.

*I continue to maintain that if we get a scum flip in first dance we play it out from there or at least re-discuss whether we should no lynch.

If everyone could bold their votes:

VOTE: No Lynch Dance 1

VOTE: Lynch Dance 1

[Krazy]

B) In Dance 1, we should just immediately no lynch

This is where I began the day. I dropped it when I began to think that we could get a consensus first lynch for dance 1, so that we could get the exclusion flip, and then immediately lynch the consensus first pair, and then have a plan for what to do on red flip/green flip (probably try to have discussion and updated reads for the pairs likely to get killed during intermission).

However, I haven't really seen indications there is a consensus first lynch at this point. Without a consensus first lynch, I believe we should immediately No Lynch; or at the very least, no lynch within the first 6-12 hours of Dance 1. Given Vedith can only hammer no lynch if all pairings are formed, we can discuss the pre-dance exclusion and then no lynch if town wants people to check in at that point.

But the longer we are in Dance 1, the higher the risk for Stupid, Unfun, Bullshit. There are compelling reasons to consider a strategy of having 100% of the town committed to hammering no lynch, upon a green pre-flip exclusion. So I VOTE: No Lynch Dance 1

[Krazy]

Like I've been having this really bad feeling about him coming into the game with an agenda and him outright saying he was willing to humor RC and I suiciding for "RC's plan" pinged like hell

When was this?

[Krazy]

Ank are you scum?

[Krazy]

I'm deciding whether you're being intentionally dense or not.

Your pair is locktown and there was nothing in S_S's post worth responding to. Him proposing that RC leave the dance was... I don't even know the word, not exactly scummy, but not worth responding to. I wasn't humoring shit and if you aren't being dense you should know better.

[Krazy]

If you look at S_S's response, you can tell he understood the implication of my statement, so I'm kinda disappointed that you're throwing this at me right now. Shutting him down more forcefully would have only brought more attention to a distraction. If you think I'm entertaining the idea of saying RC should leave the dance, frankly I'm disappointed.

[Krazy]

And how am I supposed to interpret "Your suggestion is noted" if it's not humoring it?

Look at SS's response to me and tell me how he interpreted it. I was pretty clearly being a condescending dick to him and he damn well knew it.

[Krazy]

ok I'm probably taking things out of context or misunderstanding but I just wanna be clear, Krazy do you scum read Ank?

No I'm just annoyed at her for not getting my snide humor

[Krazy]

Gamma there's some bad news about your hopes for Moment

[Krazy]

Given there's standing offers for S_S, you can basically pair whoever whenever you want Gamma

there's like suggestions and stuff but it's pretty much w/e this point given there's pretty wide support for a d1 no lynch (unless everyone reading now skipped that page and wants to disagree now)

[Krazy]

Gamma I didn't want to dance with you for a similar reason to why I didn't want to dance with Nancy. We can talk about it dance 2 if you we're not dead, otherwise in post.

[Krazy]

First I've heard of this I think?

tbh it wasn't a very good reason and I was secondguessing it around Friday night but at that point there was some other stuff going on in terms of how I felt about this game and then Taly accepted on Saturday. In retrospect I probably should have just danced with Nancy, but at the time I thought the game would be less fun that way. I was probably wrong.

[Krazy]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Krazy]

Nice dance everyone, hope I die

[Krazy]

fancy IC choice, not sure whether that's meant to paranoia Dann more or do something about Gamma but I'll take a Pvt town for now

Marathon weekend is still going so nothing too fancy from me quite yet

[Krazy]

Interesting given I was stated to be first lynch. Is there anything beyond WiFoM that would explain that selection?

If you're town, probably this. This is downside/upside of not lynching in Dance 1; it means the IC is on a lower-ranked pairing, and so the partner will be under more suspicion (rightfully or wrongfully).

[Krazy]

???

i.e., the IC selection could be to cast doubt onto Gamma, if she is town, for the wifom involved

[Krazy]

I think I was starting to get better right before I left. I had a game of fire and ice that ended in a draw, and a large theme that ended in a gamethrow/mod error which seemed like a really zen way to break things off for a while. But no, I don't think I had any sort of reputation for having a strong towngame until I came back in Ircher's Large Normal.

True story, my first scum game on site was against Hiraki, and my first scum game when coming back to the site was against Hiraki, and like those are the only two games I've ever seen him in. Sorry that's kinda off topic just something I noticed that I thought was funny

[Krazy]

Taly, is the most obvious townie in the entire game.

stop triggering me Nancy

I don't necessarily disagree but you've said that many times and I'm just wondering how much recent experience you have with Taly's scum game

[Krazy]

I'm slightly more inclined to think the IC was put on a scum pair if only to force town to get rid of it early.

there are arguments to be made for leaving the IC'd pair in final 3 pairings even if Gamma was widely scumread, given that dramatically decreases the likelihood of a loss in the entry into final 3 pairs. That being said I'd still rather not warp the reads of Gamma at this point and I don't want to get into a mech discussion of final pairings right now

[Krazy]

I played with scum!Taly in Labrynth and I locktowned him in SC 2 or have you forgotten about that?

My point is, do you disagree that he is the most widely read obvtown player in this game, if town?

I'm thinking about my Taly read, if Labyrinth Mafia is the most significant scum game for her that you're basing your read on I'll bear that in mind when I do a meta dive later this week

[Krazy]

You're saying Fire didn't use your PT for shitposting at all?

[Krazy]

Can you expand on PB/worm pairing read?

[Krazy]

Krazy is my only null outside of Work (who I'm not counting).

Assuming you mean Worm here and that somehow you got phone autocorrected

[Krazy]

Feeling stronger on Taly town after the Vedith flip, her reaction there was pretty town. I know that's where you've been for a while but it takes me some time.

[Krazy]

VOTE: DT

Alright I think we need this

[Krazy]

Read some games and feel better about this flipping scum. I will try to write something coherent tomorrow before I get too swept up in marathon

Brie maybe but less confident there, Moment sounds like he did toward end of Halloween so feeling a bit better town there.

[Krazy]

Alright fuck, I think I got excited last night when reading two of DT's other games and I thought I saw something in this one that was pretty SI but now I think it might have actually been a post in one of his old games. Go me.

Anyway, I still think this is probably the path for today, but given that my case is not actually as good as I thought it was, I'm open to arguments about W-PB / M-TB pairings as well.

DT has been kinda low in my poe but not really a scumread for most of predance because I did like this post:

Spoiler:

I need to see and engage with you more

Doubting

I'm not getting your reads on

Dr. W

and

Allo

? Both people I'm suspecting at the moment?

Also I'm still confident with

Nancy

being town.

Do you have any questions for me?

i think nancy is townish too for her read on RC

i liked allo's tone

i like W's tone

it's just gut tone read. they seem to have "i dont care about what others think" and expresses opinion in a bold way

of course, scums also try to manipulate this kinda tone, but the genuinity is different slightly, imo, when they are scum and town

i mean i can answer ur questions if u have specific ones. these are where my reads came from in general tho

i also partly dont like explaining every single small things that come to my mind because

1) chances are they are wrong
2) chances are my own opinion of them change later on
3) they clog up the thread unnecessarily we honestly don't need every single detail of thoughts that I have

now, if you accept my love reqeust and we get a lovers chat, i can, of course, explain all the little things you want

Most of my reason for wanting to start with his lynch today boils down to three short posts:

aw man RC died

at least I wont tinfoil him huh

I don't like this as an authentic reaction to RC-Ank's death.

That does help me with not having to sort my partner, now I can just jam out reads

bad post is bad

I don't like that this is the only other post we've gotten since daybreak; he did post last weekend, maybe he will post later today and bring some solviness, but my main thought on this slot is "I wonder if this is scum who has realized he isn't endgaming and has decided to just stop spewing."

my strongest qualities are not reading, it's definitely presenting towniness tho

After reading some other DT scum games, this is a slightly SI post.

I've been circling back and second-guessing myself on every other pairing.

I've significantly warmed up to S_S being possible town, but there are only two pairings right now that I continually second-guess my read of both slots: DT-S_S and M-TB. Between the two pairings, I think DT might be more likely to flip scum.

Rereading DT's early game this morning still has me second-guessing myself but I haven't really liked DT's post dance and I don't like how I feel like I've heard almost nothing about DT and S_S's PT given S_S made a big point about that in pre-dance.

We haven't talked much, I think we've both been busy the past few days

It could be TI for S_S, but it could be SI for DT, I'm genuinely not sure.

But I do think DT-S_S is a solid elimination right now.


I was considering M-TB as a potential first pairing to go, because I had a few thoughts like:
A-Isn't Moment more of a 'peacemaker'? Is it possible he has been antagonistic this game and that's SI?
B-Have Moment's reads been 'too good' so far?
C-Does TB structure posts like this as scum or as town?

A-In regard to the first one, I reread Halloween's Ball, and simply put, I remember him being nicer than he actually was. His tone here hasn't been far off.
B-While Moment's reads on the four flips so far are pretty good I'm not sure I can really make this argument right now
C-I actually think TB slightly tends to write blockier posts as scum so her posts this game seem very slightly possibly townie but I'm not sure.

So I'm still second-guessing myself on that pairing first.

Then there's W-PB, and frankly since I'm just like 90% sure W flips town, I mostly have known for a week I need to actually metadive PB. My main concern for PB so far is that I feel like, when he is town, he continues roleplaying throughout the thread more. As scum, I think he shifts to being serious a bit more frequently. So I am very slightly worried that PB shifted into "serious PB" too early and that he might be scum, but given that's not a super strong reason I think I need to reflect more there.

I actually have a very minor pet theory that Gamma might be scum (it goes like this: I literally just beat Gamma on my Jenga account as scum, so she might be more motivated to win a scum game, and she seems REALLY motivated since intermission broke), but A) she's paired with the IC so I don't think she should go yet and B) I certainly don't want to punish her for being motivated when I want to see her play like this in more games because I'm really appreciating her play this game. I like her energy here.

Dancefloor I just refuse to talk about more until I see some more flips, and I'm feeling good that Taly is town. So at this point, I partly need DT-S_S's flips because I am getting sick of second-guessing my reads on those slots every morning, partly because I think DT is the most likely to flip red out of any slot in the game at this particular Moment, and partly because I think it's the strongest PoE elimination pairing in the game right now. But I'm not 100% sure there's a red flip in it so I'm welcome to counter-arguments.

That's where I'm at.

pedit: some other people commented on the PT thing while I was writing this but I'm just going to leave it as is

[Krazy]

Probably need to expand on why 4131 pings me a bit more.

Metaing DT is not super useful because his posts this game are much more snippy and succinct than either his town or scum games. I think, as either alignment, he has frequently been really lost and needed real time interaction to get a grip on the game. However *there is a chance that him being lost might be SI* and that he'd have more of an agenda as town.

The types of posts that really stand out to me in DT's scum games are posts like these:

Spoiler:

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

I wouldn't say impossible. At the end of the game there's always a question of why someone is there. Night Kills generally aim for people who are either super Towny, an obvious PR or sometimes just someone who is too close to solving the game.

That being said, it can be very hard to catch a skilled scum player who has a scum range which closely emulates their town. If someone gets that reputation, people will probably just start lynching that individual before end game to be safe

It is not impossible because they have exactly different players they need to lynch to win

For example if I am in a game of 13 players, there are usually 3 scums.

Say I am town. My goal is to find 3 scums out of the 12 players, or 9 towns out of the 12 players (excluding myself)

Say I am scum. My goal is to mislynch the other 10 players (excluding myself and two teammates, total of 3 mafias in a 13 player game)

In the process, maybe I can also bus my other two teammates for some credit, but in the end I have to kill at least 7 town players as scum (because 3 towns - 3 scums is a parity win condition for scum so i need to at LEAST kill 7 players), whereas as town, I have to find and kill other 3 scum players, while in the process towns will be night killed and potentially be lynched, but I can theoretically win the game after only 5 players have died (by lynching all 3 scums back to back to back meanwhile during the nights 2 towns are being night killed)

I know that explanation kinda sucked, but that is basically the core reason.

Don't forget, during the process of the game, the logic/reasoning for one person to use for scum reading a town as a town and wolf and also scum reading a scum/bussing a scum as a town/wolf will have differences, inherently

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves

LOOK

like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT

LOVES

to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly

BELIEVES

in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

And there isn't some post here that's just like "Oh yeah, that's a scum post for DT", however thinking of these posts, and DT's tendency to kinda of narrate what 'scum would do' much more as scum than as town, and also talk about his own qualities and scum play, 4131 was a minor ping for me.

It also makes me put more scrutiny on posts like:

Spoiler:

I need to see and engage with you more

Doubting

I'm not getting your reads on

Dr. W

and

Allo

? Both people I'm suspecting at the moment?

Also I'm still confident with

Nancy

being town.

Do you have any questions for me?

i think nancy is townish too for her read on RC

i liked allo's tone

i like W's tone

it's just gut tone read. they seem to have "i dont care about what others think" and expresses opinion in a bold way

of course, scums also try to manipulate this kinda tone, but the genuinity is different slightly, imo, when they are scum and town

i mean i can answer ur questions if u have specific ones. these are where my reads came from in general tho

i also partly dont like explaining every single small things that come to my mind because

1) chances are they are wrong
2) chances are my own opinion of them change later on
3) they clog up the thread unnecessarily we honestly don't need every single detail of thoughts that I have

now, if you accept my love reqeust and we get a lovers chat, i can, of course, explain all the little things you want

Remember, this is the *main reason* I was tempted to consider a townread on DT, but actually the second half of the post is at least in the neighborhood of the sort of meta-theorizing rambling that DT does a lot as scum. This was his towniest post, and after reading his scum games, it almost pings me. So I feel like there's very few posts from DT right now where I can point to it and say, "Damn, DT is obvtown, we shouldn't lynch here."

Doesn't make him obvscum. I say this because I know Taly still wants PB first and I'm willing to hear her out there.

[Krazy]

Wrote all that shit and I'm already second guessing myself, I just don't see a stronger scumcase anywhere else so far.

[Krazy]

Taly asked in our PT for some more meta on DT but I figure I should just keep it here since that's where my push is.

Instead of risking turning myself into a caricature of myself (by doing a massive wallpost going over posts from other games etc. etc.) though I'd rather just ask you guys to take the "Krazy Iso Challenge"

Here's how it works -- I provide 5 links to games with the flip not being stated
You read the first 20 posts in the iso (assuming there are that many) and make a call about what you think the flip will be
And then you make a note and go on to the next one

The idea is that if you are consistently guessing wrong, you probably shouldn't try to use meta for the player
But if you're guessing right, you can maybe solidify what you think is a tell for the player

I will do the spoilers in a future post -- can you identify someone's alignment within 20 posts of their iso?

Here's the

DT Krazy Iso Challenge:

Reminder -- the rules are, don't try to go find the flip. Just read the first 20 posts and make a call, town or scum?

Game 1: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 2 -- DT replacing Lady Angel: (LA included for ref) https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 3 -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 4 -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 5 -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I could spoiler the answers, and obviously you can just look up the answers, but I think you will be more likely to take the challenge seriously if you can't find them with just one click.

I don't promise there is an even ratio here; the selections are based on available games. So they could be all town, if the player doesn't roll town that much.

And in terms of second guessing, I will say that in setting up this exercise, I am now back to watching to lynch DT

So there's that. This thing where I end up flipping between wanting to lynch him and second guessing myself 2-3 times a day is kinda why I want a flip here because it's making it really hard to focus on other iso dives/meta dives.

[Krazy]

I think it's DT, Moment and one between TheBrie and SS, inclined to believe is TheBrie and aknowledging that I'm paranoid about SS but not townleaning him despite that. And Dr Worm would be the wildcard; he's the definition of null

How would you feel about putting your vote on DT?

I don't want to rush people but we do need about one flip every 36 hours here at least otherwise endgame is gonna be really pressured, so I'd like to see a bit more vote movement.

[Krazy]

@Fakegod could we get a votecount too please

[Krazy]

DT Krazy Iso Challenge

TONE READS!!
1, 2, 5 = SAME ALIGNMENT!!
3, 4 = SAME ALIGNMENT!!

Thanks for participating!

I'll do the answers in a spoiler here -- don't click the spoiler if you haven't done the challenge yet!

Spoiler:

1-4 are all town, 5 is scum.

Looking at the scumgame in 5 is one reason I'm back to feeling good about DT flipping scum here

Getting that 3 and 4 are same alignment isn't bad at least! Although I guess I'm not sure if you were saying those were both scum games.

[Krazy]

Shall I try this?

dooo it

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

Game 5 - Scum, but it was multiball and I knew there was another scum faction

that's actually maybe something to think about hmmm

[Krazy]

Two little things

DT, what's your read on SS rn? How are you feeling about your own pairing?

Second, for some reason I really dislike trying to read things on MU, like I don't know what it is about the aesthetic of the site but it bothers me the way posts are organized, even though obviously it's like, pretty similar to here

Sorry, just finished some insane marathon nonsense, pretty wiped right now, I will think about your wall up there in more detail tomorrow morning

[Krazy]

I think I remember you saying me being lost is more scum indicative?

Yeah, based on

Spoiler:

how I feel about your play in game 5

I feel like you are more likely to ask people to give you direction as scum, and that's kinda like how I felt you played the end of pre-dance, particularly irt my slot

you seem more strong-willed as town, although as you said, those games are not your most recent play I guess

[Krazy]

i regret my partner choice

so, like, I still haven't fully thought through the wall post, but I feel like all you said after this was "let's talk in the PT" and then, as far as SS has said, you haven't talked in the PT... so I guess I'm just kinda baffled why you did a defensive wallpost of your own slot when you seem to be barely townreading your partner?

I actually don't even think you are likely to log on before I wake up in the morning given your posting habits so maybe I should save any other thoughts until I have a fresh pair of eyes

ok good night merchant's daughter dance folks

[Krazy]

VOTE: THEBREAD

what's funny is when I see "brie" I think cheese not bread

[Krazy]

This is difficult. Gut reads I'm just gonna go 2, 3, 5 as town and 1 and 4 as scum

Am I the only one who found this incomprehensible?

THEBREAD is NOT reading!!

Yeah it does seen like she skipped my walls

[Krazy]

VOTE: THEBREAD

Talk about some of your reads?

I mean that was a read gamma lol

He said brie is scum because she's skipping walls. Agree or not that is a read

[Krazy]

To be fair, I skipped that wall too. Big walls on phone are a no no. By the way Krazy, I posted my results to your game, did you spoil the answers already?

Yeah in my response to worm but I can do it here too

Spoiler:

1-4 town, 5 scum

[Krazy]

WHO WANTS DR WORM to WALK OUT??

I mean if you have a strong gutscum read on pb from pt interactions that is something only you would know

You can summarize what pinged you but tbh I don't know that I could evaluate pb better from your summary

I do think you're town so it is just a question of why pb in my mind

[Krazy]

Also I probably should have realized this before, but my strongest skill as a player is obvtowning while having shit reads. Which I've done here, but it doesn't count for anything if my pair gets lynched because of Thomas :/

I mean I didn't hate most of your null pool and the only slot I know you're objectively wrong on is me, and I get shitcased all the time by stronger players than you. I think it's my avi and lack of cute catchphrases. Not sure why you think your reads are shit; it's a near mathematic certainty there is scum in your bottom 3 tiers.

What did you make of dt's wall? Do you think his read of you is a natural progression?

[Krazy]

Pink Ball I'm glad you're feeling better although we have actually played before, just not on this account. That being said I didn't interact with you much there. If I'm right I definitely get why you're not in a rush to out lol

[Krazy]

Well if it's a mathematical certainty that scum is in there, it means that it didn't take any scumhunting skill to generate... I could put everyone in the scum tier and say "omg I scumread all the scum!" but it wouldn't mean anything.

Re: Thomas's wall, I don't know yet. I'm trying to get him to talk about that stuff a little more in the PT.

I mean I know your most recent experiences with nancy have been of high activity, but why do you feel like this is not the nancy of excalibur? You shouldn't assume the lack of her getting into a fight with some toxic player is a scumtell dude.

As for me you just overestimate my scum game, but I take it as a compliment so idgaf

[Krazy]

First lynch would probably be Krazy/Taly

TELL WHY using a few small words PLEASE and THAKN YOU!!

He just said why is 4636

[Krazy]

I mean I know your most recent experiences with nancy have been of high activity, but why do you feel like this is not the nancy of excalibur? You shouldn't assume the lack of her getting into a fight with some toxic player is a scumtell dude.

I don't think I paid attention to a single thing Nancy said in Excalibur while I was alive.

The only thing I remember her doing... was getting in a fight. (After I was dead.)

I guess lol

If there's one thing that bothers me rn it's that she complained about the lack of votes and then didn't put down a vote herself, which is odd because I've never seen her afraid to put down a vote. Doesn't make me scumread her but I don't get why you're so salty just because nancy is widely townread. It doesn't look like you're scum, it's just a question of if your reads hold merit. Saying you forgot the first two thirds of excalibur doesn't help me there because that's why I incorrectly had doubts about her--she did seem more passive there in a way that isn't totally different than her being a bit passive here, which is why I'm not going to scumread her just for the lack of a fight. Her combativeness tends to go with her certainty in her reads and since we don't have a red flip here I don't feel like she's deadlocked on scum yet.

I mean maybe she should be deathtunneled on you because you dared list her as a scumread and I'm pocketed but I have waaaaaaaaaay fewer doubts about my townread of Nancy than you seem to have about DT, who I'm still pretty ok with flipping red

[Krazy]

Like SS what might be redemptive, if I'm right about nancy, is for you to pull a third name out of your null pool so that you do actually have a scumteam. At least then you could say you called 1/3 (fmpov at least)

[Krazy]

I guess I can ask -- nancy where are you voting?

[Krazy]

Damn I'm feeling better about my main theory on pb and now I feel like even more of a dick for leaving like I did last game

Meh

[Krazy]

Like SS what might be redemptive, if I'm right about nancy, is for you to pull a third name out of your null pool so that you do actually have a scumteam. At least then you could say you called 1/3 (fmpov at least)

See this is the kind of thing that makes me scumread you. It doesn't help anyone. You're just trying to make a person who's already wrong (from your town POV) become more confident in his bad reads.

As scum I can see you doing this to make it look like you're working with me. But you're not really doing anything productive as town.

How is asking you to sort your null pool bad for town?

You took half the playerlist and said "no read" -- what is town supposed to do with those names if you flip green?

[Krazy]

Like SS what might be redemptive, if I'm right about nancy, is for you to pull a third name out of your null pool so that you do actually have a scumteam. At least then you could say you called 1/3 (fmpov at least)

See this is the kind of thing that makes me scumread you. It doesn't help anyone. You're just trying to make a person who's already wrong (from your town POV) become more confident in his bad reads.

As scum I can see you doing this to make it look like you're working with me. But you're not really doing anything productive as town.

Like I feel the opposite.

Right now you give the impression of being a bit tunneled on me, I guess because you think the pressure I put on you predance was scummy... But that pressure helped me sort you. Like I want to see if you start critically evaluating your nulls whether you can solve better. Maybe we are having a playstyle clash though. If you don't want to, don't.

Pedit: ok nvm then

[Krazy]

I mean, I've already said Thomas was nulltown. I'm trusting RC on Dann and Brie, so if I were to drop anyone it'd be Gamma... but any read on Gamma will get drowned out by IC WIFOM.

Not really... Gamma isn't getting lynched first for sure. That doesn't mean we don't need to make a choice about her literally in the next 5 days.

[Krazy]

Ss at this point I am sorry that you're paired with DT because i think I do need that flip. If there's no scum there, there's just so much more work I need in this game that I need to like figure out my schedule for the week LOL.

[Krazy]

I just realized it's hypocritical to suspect Nancy for not being able to read Gamma when she said she was obvtown in a previous game... because I too have read Gamma as obvtown before but cannot read her here.

My first ever meta case on Gamma was that she enjoys scum a bit more than town, so she has an inverted meta (the opposite of the Creature-style meta of 'lurk as scum, post a lot as town') and she tends to post heavier as scum. But I think that's because Gamma feeds back on feeling like she's part of a team. So it is plausible to me that she just really likes not having to sort her partner and that's why there's been a big upsurge in her confidence post-intermission.

Also possible that she just likes her scumteam a lot here though so... hard to say for sure. But that seems unlikely if DT flips scum, which is one of several reasons that I think we need some red flips so we can get a better feel for how the scum even feel about this game.

[Krazy]

the Creature-style meta of 'lurk as scum, post a lot as town'

off topic, but I guess I need to stop saying this, given it really isn't creature's meta anymore

[Krazy]

Then you don’t really know my meta as well as you think I do. If you read my hydra PT with A50 in SC 1, he asked me why I was so “shy” about putting down a vote. I think I then voted Sadade, eventhough I wasn’t really feeling it. If I had been playing solo, I 100% wouldn’t have done that.

It’s your freaking game Krazy, how can you misrep me here, when you can verify what I’m saying is true?

To be fair I get a much weaker sense of a feel for how someone plays when I am modding the game rather than playing it. Also, that game was insane so there was a lot of things distracting me from a mod pov.

And I wouldn't say that's a misrep, it's just my recollection, and I still said you were town right there so... chill, gurl.

[Krazy]

It’s your freaking game Krazy, how can you misrep me here, when you can verify what I’m saying is true?

I can think of one possible reason...

#postsyouthinkarehelpfulbutarent

[Krazy]

Doesn't make me scumread her

Nancy why are you ignoring this part? I am trying to be candid about my thought process and getting S_S to open up about the extent of his meta arguments, I wasn't saying I was "suspicious" of you

[Krazy]

Alright, but he won't be posting for another 10-11 hours based on his schedule.

This is not really a gamestate that dramatically rewards going 10 hours of waiting for someone to post reads they should have posted 3 days ago.

[Krazy]

What does PB have to do with your replace out? It was Slaxx you were fighting with.

Opposite of what I meant; PB has done me a solid before so I feel bad because if I'd known I would have tried to return the favor and kept my cool longer with Slaxx.

[Krazy]

I don't care about fluffing. I care about people who are more concerned with appearance than substance.

Yeah but if you're just going to turn into Formerfish then we're done here and you can go whenever

[Krazy]

PB mind if I tell Taly in our PT?

[Krazy]

What is meant by this?

It means you're starting to annoy me so I'm going to stop interacting with you since the signal-noise ratio is deteriorating.

Sadly I think I like you more when you're scum.

[Krazy]

Why did it take you this long to say this?

I still had doubts since I had thought Alisae was scum until pretty recently, now I'm almost totally certain you're town which makes your play toward my slot even more frustrating for me. Thankfully you're not nearly so loud as Slaxx when you're wrong.

[Krazy]

I’m just shocked that you didn’t read my hydra PT, especially after all of our private convos about my constantly considering replacing out because our hydra was a complete trainwreck for the most part, so I really just don’t understand this.

I did, but mostly I just kept looking at how you were wrong on one read and right on one read, and A50 was wrong on one read and right on one read, and you kept beating your heads against each other and just never quite syncing despite both being strong players, both being right on a lot, and both being wrong on just a few key things. I guess I kinda missed your vote patterns as a result because there was a lot going on there that was just more interesting at the time

[Krazy]

I am not following.

It had to do with something that happened in a game I was modding. This is what he meant when he said "we hadn't played together" (which he thought was true because he doesn't know about my alt) but that we'd interacted somehow anyway. I don't know how much more I can say without making it really easy to mainhunt him.

[Krazy]

Yeah I asked FakeGod not to release our PT.

But I am also okay taking that as a no, PB.

[Krazy]

Dear god, they've gone and done it, they've really gone and done, the madmen, what have you done to the poor thread

[Krazy]

krazy, you have an opinion on my wall literally dedicated to you?

Well my first impression to it was "what" and now I'm kinda with everyone else in trying to decide if you thinking vedith/fire was still alive is actually AI

I can't tell if it's playstyle or what but I've felt very desynced from you. I didn't get why you didn't try to make your pairing with Brie happen and I didn't get why you hard-defended yourself when you were barely townreading SS.

Still processing it I guess, sorry that I don't have a more cohesive response to it yet

[Krazy]

wait vedith and firebringer died?

They sure did, Vedith did in fact leave the dance. They are both flipped town.

[Krazy]

why did vedith leave the dance?

Didn't like Fire ignoring the PT and thought Fire might be scum iirc

why not?

Well feel like there's enough other pairs that are priority PoEs that there's no reason to eliminate the IC'd pairing first, even if we think Gamma's scum at least she's spewing.

I think you said a bit ago that you weren't really sure on PB, can you go over your Worm-PB read again when you get a chance? I'm starting to think maybe I should just sheep Taly because my reads feel kinda fucked.

[Krazy]

Krazy holding onto a meta case that I've already kinda said doesn't even apply anymore

and complaining about how "I might not even post before I wake up"

but being in the thread while I am posting a lot but not really trying to interact with me at all?

that's not a good look

You know every time you add a reply it refreshes my pedit, and I actually read it right LOL

anyway, you *saying* the meta case doesn't hold up is not the same thing as me *agreeing* the meta case does not hold up. It's something I actually need to think about.

And yes, you didn't post at all on Saturday basically, and I think this is the first time you've posted at all in this time window this game, unless I'm misremembering something from early pre-dance. You almost exclusively post in a 1.5 hour window which starts in about 8 hours from now.

[Krazy]

so you don't have questions for me prepared? Even though you had a very long case on me/scum reading me to an extent but not 100% sold on me being scum and wants to see my flip?

Yeah, I wanted to see your flip because I kinda reached the point that I wasn't sure I could sort you by asking questions.

Like, if it's not you first, then I would say I want to lynch PB for this progression on you:

Spoiler:

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

I support PinkBall's suggestions for pairings. It'll be interesting what input the people actually involved provide however particularly because I think there's likely some scum in there.

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

not bad

saying people are okay with pairing you with SS is basically saying they're okay with lynching you with dance 1 at this point, in case the subtext here isn't clear

I mean I kinda poe'd you as scum but I have never really seen anything that makes me think there's a smoking gun, I just haven't seen a lot of sorting from you. So if you think Pvt or Moment should be with SS instead of you, you need to kind of say why

Not true. I'm not scumreading either of them

mostly because I have a hard time comprehending why PB would put you at the bottom of his list next to Allo and then backpedal to saying he was "not scumreading" you.

I'm still not sure that's a stronger case than the one on you, and I'm still not sure I buy your "that's not my meta" rebuttal. I'm not a player that really thrives on lots of jerky interactions with someone who hasn't read the thread. Why would your reads right now be alignment indicative or make me feel better about you when you are only responding to what people say in real time based on things you don't have context for?

So yeah, if you're re-evaluating your PB read, I'd like to hear it... but it doesn't help me at all for you to say "well I'm not caught up and I'm not going to get caught up"... that makes your slot basically unreadable because it is unable to separate dumbtells from actual sorting. And I feel like you are capable of more cohesive processing as town.

Like, you seeming slightly more townie is something that makes me think, "Oh, maybe I should go reread PB again," not "oh I should spam 50 questions to someone who hasn't read the thread"

[Krazy]

if you want to interact with me, you are more than welcome but if you are just locked into pushing my lynch then... okay

what is your case on me disregarding a meta reason?

I didn't like your reaction to RC's death, and I didn't like you exclusively focusing on my meta case and ignoring the fact that I didn't like your reaction to RC's death.

I don't like that you prioritized avoiding being lynched over refining your read of S_S in your response to my meta case, I didn't like that you seemed disinterested in sorting S_S prior to coming into the thread and defending yourself, I don't like that you come in and spam posts without reading back in the game first (even if that's a playstyle thing), and I didn't like the feeling you were trying to get me to direct your pairing in dance 1, when if you are town your own pairing would likely be your top concern.

There's a lot about your play this game, independent of meta, I don't like. But I also frankly think this game does loosely fit into your scum meta. However, as I have acknowledged, some of these could plausibly be playstyle conflicts. There's just a lot about your slot I would prefer to stop second-guessing myself on.

The strongest argument in your favor right now is that you were unaware that Vedith/FB flipped, but as you yourself have explained that is NAI.

That being said, it's not like your pairing is S/S. Maybe there is an argument to be made in favor of PB going first instead.

[Krazy]

DT, is this the part where I make a post saying, "Oh you just asked me to interact with you and now you've stopped posting, bad look for you"

Because that certainly makes me confident that your interactions with me are made in good faith

[Krazy]

I'm guessing you're getting caught up but I'm curious how you feel about DT at this point PB when you get through these last pages, PB.

[Krazy]

I just have them as really high town in a mechanical stand point

what does this mean?

[Krazy]

i pointed out you weren't doing what i expected you to do despite you having me as your top lynch candidate which makes me feel like potentially you are scum reading me to mislynch me.

me pointing this out is different than you pointing out that i didn't interact with you because i don't scum read you at least as of now and i want to solve gamma/brie/etc

not sure why you are trying to just shade my ass but ok

well do you think I appreciate it when I am going back to reread the thread and then you fucking accuse me of deliberately not interacting with you in real time?

because that is bullshit

[Krazy]

My argument was that you should have had reads three days ago and that town is on the clock. I think I made exactly one post about it. Stop acting like I was talking up a storm about your post activity, that was simply me refuting the notion that there wasn't enough to work with irt your slot to get a read.

i town read SS and not scum read SS. that is not hard to understand. I think there are definite scum in Gamma or Brie. Maybe in PB, Nancy, etc if I look more into it.

As far as I know this is your reads right now. We have 5 days to solve the game. Who gets lynched today DT? Why are you continuing to bitch about me not spoonfeeding you interactions when you are presenting 0 indications of a solving mindset? Do you want Brie lynched today? Do you want Gamma to go first? Why in that order?

I have read your games and you are not this directionless as town. I feel like you just want to throw dirt at whoever is online and posting rather than working toward a gamesolve.

[Krazy]

but the entire game ends at the end of the five days? what happens if we have a situation where only like 1 scum is alive with a lot of townies so parity is not reached by the end of the 5? scums still win?

YES

Do you maybe understand why I wasn't particularly interested in waiting 10 hours to get your flip earlier? And maybe why I am paying attention to when you do or do not post? Because stalling out the game with mud-slinging and AtE is scum indicative when literally every day that goes by without a flip advances the scum wincon

Like how am I supposed to take anything your slot says seriously, regardless of alignment, when you have apparently read nothing of the setup and followed nothing about the discussions that have shaped the game? Maybe it's somehow town indicative, but how are we supposed to solve with you at this point??? I'm not even tunneling--I'm considering the prospect you're town but I have no idea how you can claim to have nuanced reads on players when it's like you're playing an entirely different game

[Krazy]

vote me

He is the second vote on your wagon. He is.

You don't even know who is voting you!!!!!

I'm stepping away from this thread but this slot needs to GO TODAY.

FFS.

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

Game day or literal day?

LITERAL

[Krazy]

Reads, I meant reads.

Nancy/Dannflor - both town. I know them a little, they don't feel like scum here, and I trust them to read each other.

Taly/Krazy - Taly is my strongest townread. Krazy not quite as strong, mostly because of the doubt of others, but my gut says town.

Those are the pairs I'd like left. I feel much more confident in Krazy town, than Moment town.

I town read SS, I don't Thomas. He rubs me the wrong way (partly due to language which is entirely stupidly NAI), and he feels like he's pulling town apart in some way. Maybe RC is wrong with some of his reads, But DT seems to be against the idea of listening to him. And his aggressive response to some people just feels overdone. Add to that the argument that he had been intending to sit out if he couldn't pair with me, then changed to which ever remaining lady looked townier.
On the other hand, his arguments are logical when you get past his tone.

Pinkball/Dr. Worm Conflicted. The idea of Worm as town appeals to me, and I don't think they're both scum.

Gamma/Pvt - I'd lean more towards Gamma as town, but there's a voice in my head that says it's due to really liking the idea that scum were trying to get Gamma lynched by ICing PVt.

@Everyone

Suppose I left. What's next if Moment and i are both town? How about if I'm town and Moment is scum? I'd like to know how useful the flip information would actually be.

DT being town here is possible even if I emotionally don't want to believe it. I've been burned on that in the marathon in thinking "there's no way someone goes this long as town without reading the setup". His progression into voting you struck me as ... interesting... because he had previously called out PB for possibly perspective slipping, something that I was feeling as well. But I have also seen loud and obnoxious scum simply try to pollute threads into death and it is a strategy that sometimes works.

Actually I've started to feel a lot, lot worse about PB as this literal day has gone on. Earlier today, we were kinda discussing his main, and as things with DT heated up I did argue that he seems to be scummy for the way he presented the DT-S_S pairing outside of meta. He seemed to have some misgivings about outing his main, which is reasonable when you're coming off a recent scum win. Him wanting to not get paranoia'd is reasonable as either alignment. He seemed curious about what I would conclude about his meta with Taly. I felt that seemed natural at the time.

But... I haven't even had that conversation properly with Taly yet. I was playing a guessing game with her

Spoiler:

(even knowing the game they were in together she gave up and I had to tell her the answer lol)

, he suddenly starts pushing me as deepwolf with the strong assertion that Moment flips scum. I feel like there's a chance he panicked after I figured out his main? But I don't know why he panicks about me figuring out his main if he's town here.

In regard to you leaving and a Moment flip, I'm left with four scenarios:

1 -Moment is scum, and Moment is the planned bus with PB as a likely wolf. Scum wanted to push Moment because a) moment isn't here, so why not, and b) because they killed RC, and lynching scum that RC townread would be great towncred. In this scenario, DT maybe flips town but I'd have to think about whether I'm willing to believe it.

2 -Moment is town, and 1 in {PB/Gamma} is power wolfing. In this scenario, DT is ???

3 -Moment is scum, PB is town, and has a really strong read of Moment, and is wrong on me. I have very recently been burned on thinking that players are perspective slipping when they act as though they know what people will flip before they do. Sometimes people are just really pushy about their reads. In this scenario, DT is scum, and PB is wrong.

4 - Moment is town, PB is town. In this scenario PB is wrong, and he is preventing the correct lynch on an almost certainly scum DT by mistake.

I don't really get PB saying I'm the "deep wolf" trying to protect Moment when Moment is in my bottom three pairings and we have three lynches to hit scum. (We have two mislynches and we have to hit scum by the third). So protecting Moment here for me as scum, I mean, it's plausible I would protect an empty scum slot for Wifom, but I don't get why PB goes there right now in his reasoning as the first choice. I kinda feel like, if I was looking at me + Moment from an outside POV, I would not see it, although obviously I'm biased and can't do it, so I'm really struggling to see why PB goes there.

Moment can go whenever. I didn't want to start there because I think the biggest pings I get from him is "I didn't think Moment was this strong as town." Like I feel like lynching him is kinda put-downish in a way because it's saying you don't think he can have a strong town game and I don't like lynching someone just for that reason. Almost all of his townreads have been correct so far which risks being TMI, yes. But I still don't know that THAT TMI based on tonal reads in pre-dance is worse than PB's today, insisting that DT is town and implying that Moment is all but a certain redflip, when neither of those seem at all obvious to me.

I feel like my reads are slightly fucked right now. I am not strongly opposed to scorched earthing some of these slots. I don't want to be a douche to Moment and lynch him before he gets a chance to come back and town up but he's also gone long enough that I don't get why he hasn't been replaced. 5 days is a long time in a quasi-blitz.

I do feel like I have been pushed as a deepwolf a lot this game and I'm not exactly sure I understand why. I think if we sat down and talked about my meta this is like, wildly outside my scum meta range, but I also don't like making it seem like there are trust tells, and it's also the case that my strongest scum games are actually on my alts at this point. I don't really know if I'm the best person to talk about my scum play but this isn't it. Gamma and Pvt have seen my most recent scumgame completion and it was pretty night and day to this.

I don't think a Moment flip solves the game. It's basically a fine PoE lynch that could plausibly hit scum and trying to figure out who was TMIing in regard to the slot might be helpful for discussion on future literal days.

I think a Moment flip right now is weak. Right now I'd prefer to go DT-->PB-->Moment. There's an incredible amount of Wifom around the DT slot, PB has seemed really scummy this literal day. Moment is inertia that is slowing down our flips and if he needs to go for us to get a lynch in and have more time to discuss final pairings then he can go.

[Krazy]

You are a beautiful, beautiful worm, worm.

Now that I can breathe again I can theoretically take the time to read some games on Pink Ball's main and on his current account and also maybe look at Moment a bit more.

So I'm not in a huge rush and we should probably let PB talk about the flips.

It's possible he was being hard wolfy but it's also possible he was just really wrong.

As for Moment, I'm not really nearly as concerned about shedding that inertia anymore, but wouldn't mind taking the night to actually reread with the DT flip in mind.

Or are people still like, wanting to do M-TB for TB? I could see that early predance but it's kinda faded post-intermission.

[Krazy]

Pvt where are you on PB?

[Krazy]

I need to figure something out about how to regulate myself playing mafia still.

The DT push temporarily brought back my tinnitus and my blood pressure has been through the roof for a few hours now.

[Krazy]

Gamma knows I've never missed with the flamethrower LOL

[Krazy]

Oh, hey Moment!

Welcome back

[Krazy]

So who's scum?

[Krazy]

Ok cool

What don't you like about Taly?

[Krazy]

I'm not sure that 1 is really something that is against Taly, and if I was to summarize 2 it would be "Taly is kinda fencesitty"?

Because I kinda agree with 2 and I will bear it in mind. One of the reasons I wanted DT gone was so that I could actually have the time to sit down and metadive her. We've both agreed that the townreads thrown her way were often given too easily.

Earlier, you said PB had you "pocketed" -- can you expand on what this means? Because usually when Flavor Leaf says that in a game, ?as a joke?, the slot ends up flipping scum. But you are not Flavor Leaf and if you are townreading PB I'd like you to expand on your reasoning when you can.

[Krazy]

Wait am I misunderstanding your 2? 2 is "PoE"?

[Krazy]

I think Dr.W+PB's vote on Moment+TheBrie were less likely to be scum, they weren't very reasoned and didn't have a narrative following a strong argument of why TheBrie+Moment contained scum unlike what I thought of DT+Gamma's vote

I'm not really sure I follow your reasoning of why PB's unreasoned vote on M-TB is less likely to be scum in a phase of the game where we are scumhunting

[Krazy]

If Gamma is town here, it's because she has not used the phrase "mite of meta" once to present a nonsensical towncase/scumcase.

I don't know if that actually makes her town, but it is one of her tics as scum to almost always say some sort of nonsense about meta in lieu of a read based on the game itself.

Still thinking about that slot but still think I want PB more today.

[Krazy]

Final two pairs? Me/Nancy, Krazy/Taly

UNVOTE: pinkball

I don't know if the order we lynch the others matters too much. I'm now thinking that maybe TheBrie/Moment should go first.

scum!pinkball doesn't introduce this idea of endgame pairs and then not include himself. I'm also inclined to believe all the people who've suggested end game pairs right now are town

PB what did you think of this post?

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

I support PinkBall's suggestions for pairings. It'll be interesting what input the people actually involved provide however particularly because I think there's likely some scum in there.

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

not bad

saying people are okay with pairing you with SS is basically saying they're okay with lynching you with dance 1 at this point, in case the subtext here isn't clear

I mean I kinda poe'd you as scum but I have never really seen anything that makes me think there's a smoking gun, I just haven't seen a lot of sorting from you. So if you think Pvt or Moment should be with SS instead of you, you need to kind of say why

Not true. I'm not scumreading either of them

Yeah I slept on it, had a chance to clear my head at work, and this progression still just bothers me too much. PB I love you, I consider you a friend, but I don't see how town ever writes the list in 3084 and then says you're not scumreading DT/SS pairing. 3178 just looks like a scummy backpedal because you weren't going to get enough towncred out of a bus at that point.

There's some other stuff concerning your interactions yesterday that I can talk about as well but the progression from 3084-3178 is just not something that's going to stop pinging me anytime soon.

[Krazy]

I don’t see how pairing with Worm makes you lynchbait. I think pre-dance, more people were tr him then Dann iirc.

@Pink Ball, I am really concerned with you wanting to lock in the endgame pairs just yet, before we know for sure who DT was likely protecting, because it’s pretty damn obvious he was.

Do you not see why this is relevant?

I'm basically mindmelding with Nancy here; I don't get why PB suddenly bringing up endgame pairings when he knows I'm going to be coming for him is anything other than a red herring. This is kinda how I felt PB was playing yesterday (literal) too, in seeming to want to change topics whenever something that didn't align with his agenda came up.

[Krazy]

I was townreading both Urist and Gamma and I wanted them paired. I was scumreading Moment and Allo at that time

Yeah, and in that case, Moment would have been the second to last pairing in your list

No one writes a list, as town, that has the person getting lynched at the bottom, and then has a townread as the second to last pairing in that list

It just doesn't happen

[Krazy]

I’m a bit confused.

You just answered your own question

[Krazy]

It was a list with pairing suggestions, not reads. I don't get what you're not getting.

The end of day pairings were based on reads... so the logical structure of your list makes no sense from a town!PB pov

[Krazy]

PvtUrist/Gamma and Moment/TheBrie. If Moment and TheBrie has both been null/scumread by a lot of players, better have them together than separated. Also Pvt is town and Gamma probably

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

If you were town, this would look like:

PvtUrist/Gamma
DT/SS
Moment/TB
Allo

There is no reason to have M-TB above DT-SS if M-TB are your scumreads; presenting just a list of pairings, asynchronized with your reads, is not something town does while presenting those pairings

[Krazy]

Krazy in what universe I suggest this as scum. You want me lynched and I'm telling you I'm gonna leave either way so you don't have to worry about it. I already said I'm sorry for being wrong on DT and I agree I'm a liability, so I'm leaving. I was trying to help town by seeing what scum suggests as the final pairing. You're making not sense at all

I haven't really been advocating anyone leaving the dance. Obviously, that is a choice you can make. But right now Dann just said that he wants Moment to go first just because he's townreading you for saying you're going to leave the dance. So I want to see whether Dann comes back to your wagon or whether he actually puts a vote down on M-TB.

I still want to have VCA later and I want to see people's reasonings for supporting you going or not.

I disagree with the assertion that the final solve is obvious at this point.

VOTE: PB

[Krazy]

Well my main concern was locking in endgame pairs before a few flips but I’m still not seeing why that makes him scum.

If he is town, it perhaps makes sense, if he thinks he is going to go.

But we also need to consider the possibility he is scum, and assumes he will be the next flip.

In that case, his strongly pushing for a pair of endgame pairings is to produce wifom and paranoia about those pairings.

So until I actually see his flip and know he's town, I frankly don't know what agenda is actually trying to advance right now.

[Krazy]

I've never used that exact phrasing EVER so lol ok

Subject: NY 213 - Game Over!

VOTE: texcat
eh after a mite of meta I think tex has a decent chance of being scum

Come on Gamma, don't you remember how we met?

That's a grade A example of a Gamma Emerald bus btw guys in case you're wondering what they look like

I guess we could also talk about the phrasing of the whemestar bus, "fuck it I think he's scum" that one's nice too

[Krazy]

What a fucking joke.

@Nancy, Dann and Taly, if the game's not over after the six flips, lynch Krazy.

Also, force votes on the other two pairs if they are not leaving by themselves. @Urist, you'll have to help with that. Don't leave before Moment and TheBrie.

Leave the dance

I could have sworn I just said I was casing you to get VCA on your wagon and reasonings in regard to your slot but ok

[Krazy]

I still want to have VCA later and I want to see people's reasonings for supporting you going or not.

Yeah I'm not imagining it, I did literally just say this

[Krazy]

Not even giving Worm a chance for final reads is like...

I mean I understand if you're tilted with me right now but I don't see how that was pro-town, respectfully

[Krazy]

I don’t see why scum!you would do that. Scum!you doesn’t have the fire I’ve seen here in those two scumgames I skimmed of yours. I think PB is town here. Krazy, wtf?

Yeah I wanted to give him a chance to change my mind dude

It's a game where we talk about reads, I'm not going to suddenly stop scumreading him just because he said he's leaving, and I wanted to give other people a chance to towncase him and change my mind

This is precisely why I said I don't want people leaving the dance, because now if he is genuinely townreading me he just made me look like absolute shit simply because he didn't want to talk through my case

[Krazy]

And there's no need of reads if you follow my instructions.

This is literally how House was in the final pairings last time

[Krazy]

I think you’re wrong here. I don’t see what he gains by doing this as scum.

I think Dann was saying that he thinks PB might be town, hence his unvote

[Krazy]

This might be the longest a game has gone without Fakegod posting a flip, I think he secretly had a bot that alerted him to like any bolded text or something he's usually so fast.

[Krazy]

Yeah, but why leave? I just said I wanted to give people a chance to evaluate the case on you. It wasn't about whether you make endgame, it's about getting people to flesh out their reasoning on a slot that is under pressure. Getting to see why people like Moment or Brie would choose between Taly's Gamma case and my PB case would have helped me understand the thought processes of those slots.

meh

[Krazy]

Before thisnI thought Dann was the deepwolf tho. I was going to suggest lynching him if the game's not over with the four of you. But Dann understood exactly what I was doing. Maybe it was because he's confident about himself winning at endgame? Maybe. Sorry for the final WIFOM, but I'm throwing a lifesaver to Krazy if he happens to be town.

Yes, continuing to sort Dann was another reason I wanted to actually have some VCA and see whether you were actually a consensus lynch or not. But the gamestate was quieter and this was also a chance to get a better read of Moment and TheBrie.

[Krazy]

What's the point if we're all gonna leave or get lynched before you, Taly, Nancy and Dann. I'm accelerating things so you get enough time, I said that a few times already. Weren't you the one advocating for get this game going because we got only 5 real days to be over?

Yes, but I never said S_S should leave the dance. I want *fast wagons* not *fast leaves*.

I mean, you maybe bought us ?9 hours?, because we probably were going to see wagons develop tonight (or that's what I was thinking would happen). So thank you for that. It's not like you're the first person to ever leave one of these dances faster than expected, you're just a lot more reasonable so I thought our repartee would be interesting.

[Krazy]

You voted him.

Votes do tend to go hand in hand with VCA?

[Krazy]

He already said he didn’t think he should make it to endgame and you vote him.

Yeah and I had literally just said I didn't want him to leave the dance because I wanted to see who would choose to defend him

[Krazy]

Why are you both playing up the AtE?

It's not helping.

[Krazy]

He was clearly willing to leave anyway, so why risk it?

I literally explained why in the exact same post where I was voting him, and have repeated it like twice since.

I wanted to see who would go for my case on PB over Taly's case on Gamma.

I don't get why people think they want me in the endgame if they refuse to give me the information I want to be able to solve the endgame.

[Krazy]

I just didn’t expect him to suddenly leave.

Clearly I did not either and I really, really did not appreciate you blaming me for his choice.

Yesterday was stressful enough with DT going into an insane lolcat open wolf fiesta, I was hoping today we could actually have like a reasoned argument and do some real sorting. I don't need you guilt tripping me for pushing a scumread.

[Krazy]

Could I check in on everyone's reads of TheBrie and why they have those reads?

There's other stuff I should say here, I probably should be giving some big shout of support to keep Taly's wim up, but frankly this is the first time anyone has even entertained a scumread on Taly and frankly I think we need to have the conversation at some point. I don't think she's scum right now though.

My wim is still kinda nuked from PB so I'm not going to say anything else intelligible tonight, I just wanted to hear what people think of TheBrie slot.

[Krazy]

I'm about mentally willing to just sheep nancy here and get this flip, but if rc was killed for reads accuracy, wouldn't the brie be the killer? He said he liked her for town at the verrrry end of his iso but he spent a lot of the second page of his iso pushing her to go early in the dance. I'm not the rc whisperer and I guess I'm just not in love with Gamma scum. Maybe Gamma is just a lot better at pocketing me than she used to but her progression on my slot at least doesn't look awful. Then again she did have that surge of activity post intermission. I would prefer brie first I guess.

[Krazy]

I feel like I should just accept I'm wrong on Gamma and take the flip but it just feels really weird to not be the one driving a gamma lynch if she is scum, lol

[Krazy]

Like Nancy, yeah that's the end of his iso, but that was something he said right before intermission.... After having spent several posts saying Brie had to go early and that was why he didn't want moment to pair with her. He flipped his read on her like 4 times so you shouldn't just cherry pick the end of his iso when scum wouldn't.

That being said I don't know who the second scum is. I probably would go gamma next after the brie simply due to the activity ping post intermission even despite her progression on me in predance looking natural.

VOTE: thebrie

I'll hammer gamma in 4 hours if people don't want the bread first.

[Krazy]

I guess partly I'm also like, if somehow everything is awful and there's 0 scum in M-TB at this point, then mathematically there would have to be scum somewhere in Nancefloor and Taly. A red flip in M-TB let's us lynch Gamma knowing confidently that Pvt's 'double deepscum' theory is flawed. A double green flip in M-TB would let us know that there is a deep scum with mathematic certainty. So strategically, I feel like it makes more sense to lead into M-TB, so that we have the appropriate level of paranoia when thinking about the arguments of the proposed final 2 pairings.

I'm not sure that actually makes sense and at this point we really should just lynch the strongest scumreads and clearly for most of you that's Gamma. But I think that's one of the reasons I'm chafing just a bit with the Gamma hammer.

Pedit: Yeah, I appreciate that Taly. I think you've put a lot of thought into your case. <3

[Krazy]

How was I “cherry picking”? Did you miss the post where RC wanted moment/Brie, me/Dann as the final two pairs?

No I did see that, but I reread RC's iso and he second guessed himself a lot. RC has a habit of identifying scumreads and then secondguessing himself out of them. Of the two times I rolled scum against RC, the first time he spent the entire game insisting I was lynchbait (as Nicolas Cage where I just spend the game lolcatting), and then on my other alt he initially scumread me but then I pushed him, actually in a way not totally dissimilar to how Brie pushed him here, and then he flipped his read. So I guess Brie's play here very slightly reminds me of how I play scum against RC. Doesn't mean she's lockscum, but I think bearing in mind that when RC changes his mind a bunch of times, and at one point says "alarm bells", that that's not something to just ignore even if he later calls the pairing 'locktown'.

[Krazy]

But seriously, all evidence points to Brie and moment not being scum together, so if Gamma is town here, who is scum!Brie’s partner?

That's pretty much where I'm at. If Brie flipped red and Moment flipped green, I'd probably just want to lynch Gamma at that point anyway.

I basically more feel the lynch order is incorrect more than I feel like the solve is necessarily wrong. But I'm not super sure that Brie is scum, and I feel like the last time I tried to towncase Gamma I actually ended up second-guessing myself, since like 90% of the reason I think she might be town is about her play specifically in regard to me. But that part of her play isn't irrelevant; we have both played games almost entirely based around trying to pocket each other as a wincon LOL. Still I'm hardly at a point where she's 100% locktown, I mostly just feel like her wanting to be paired with me, while asking me for detailed reads in predance, all seems like stuff town gamma would do. She seemed hopeful we would pair but also wanted to be pretty confident in her read of me which I think is how she would play it as town based on our past games. Also, if her partners are DT-TB, I don't really totally understand her surge in confidence. So if Gamma is scum, but M-TB is T/T, then I'd rather hear whether Pvt thinks Taly or Dancefloor is the deep scum.

And more than anything else I'm just exhausted by this game at this point so I really don't want to keep fighting, particularly if the win simply is Gamma-TB. I guess I should have just accepted PB's idea and just scorched earthed everything I didn't strongly townread but meh, that's just not how I've been approaching this game.

(expired on 2019-02-20 18:00:21)

[Krazy]

But if you think a double m/bt green flip, points to a deep wolf with certainty, and would still lynch Gamma anyway then, I’m still missing the logic here. RC had more confidence in Gamma scum than Brie scum and Brie has been objectively townier in general. So why does the order matter, especially since I think as Taly and Dann have both alredy, there’s more chance of Gamma flipping scum than Brie.

Well, it's more who we'd have a chance to sort things with. Pvt seems to feel like there's likely a deepwolf based on his reads, so lynching him before M-TB means we don't get a chance to evaluate his reads when there is total confidence that there is one. I guess it kinda depends on whether you think his perspective would be worth having after a M-TB flip.

[Krazy]

I've 1v1ed so many times but it's very rare for me to have such a one-sided 1v2.

That sounds bad but it's true.

I know it felt like that last night but I imagine Pvt feels like this is a 5v2, which has gotta feel weird since he's the IC

I guess it would help if he had said something like, "Man Gamma really seemed to be trying to sort me pre-intermission, there's no way she was scum that just planned to IC me"... but it seems like they probably just didn't talk or barely talked at all. Doesn't make this any easier.

Also there's part of me that thinks DT-Moment makes sense if DT really had no idea wtf was going on so even though I've kinda thought he might be town sometimes, there is a chance the scum team just totally fell apart. Still leaves the question of who Moment's partner would be, though. And I probably would at that point just agree with you anyway that Gamma was the next best choice. So for me M-TB are two separate slots I've second guessed a lot which increases my desire to just see their flips.

[Krazy]

Brie, if we flip Gamma and she flips green, what is the path from there in your view? Would Moment at that point be your top FoS?

[Krazy]

Taly can you translate what is going on in this game when you get a chance -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

am I right in understanding that this is simultaneously a town and scum game for you?

[Krazy]

{Dannflor, Dr Worm, Vedith, Ankamius, Firebringer, SS, TheBrie, Taly} town.

That leaves {PvtUrist, Krazy, RC, Allomancer, DT, Nancy, Gamma, Pink Ball}.

That's right, I should go reread Moment in Witches Ball again. My main concern with Moment so far this game is him not being demonstrably wrong about anything yet. Maybe I'm just jealous? I just don't get how he got SS town, Vedith town within 30 posts of his iso. Like, strong game for him I guess if he's green.

[Krazy]

Witches ball -- Moment

First post:

I'm leaning Gamma Emerald and Sakura scum for now.

It's slightly bothering me that people aren't seeming to take this seriously - even if you don't care about winning, you don't have to sabotage everyone else's chances of winning.

Presentation of a read as part of a typical post:

Spoiler:

I'm liking Karmeleon a bit better for town now.

---

like the double entendre.

That’s not a double entendre

I thought he was trying to say "leave the lynches to the will of the group" when he said groupthink rather than specifically to the psychological concept of groupthink, which would've made it a double entendre. Perhaps not.

---

I don't advocate for the use of suicide bombers in every game, either (unless I'm scum as a desperation tactic, perhaps)

I believe she was referring to the risk of being wrong in every mafia game rather than the risk of suicide bombing in every game.

---

LLD, what's your read on me currently? You seemed poised for something dramatic with your line of questioning towards me - I'm interested in what you're thinking.

More Moment reads:

i rly like brian skies

Really? I've actually been getting the feeling that he's scum here.

At least, he doesn't seem similar at all to any of the games I've played with him where over time it just became apparent that he was town and was never really a question at all.
[cut other stuff]

I think Dunnstral, SirCakez, Karmeleon, and shotaru are town.

If other people are confident in their ability to read Kokichi and say that he's town then I'll accept that (while also looking bitterly back at the people who said something similar about Maria in Forgotten Hourglass).
That leaves Gamma and Brian from the Gentlemen.

I don't have reasons to think Maria is town but I haven't noticed her being scum yet. For now I'll take that as her just being town rather than my not reading closely enough to have noticed her being scum. Sakura Hana is town, and ChibiBear seems town to me. Actually, that leaves me with a lot more left over Ladies than I thought.

I seem to be the minority opinion when it comes to not townreading DVa (and perhaps LLD?)

.

*in summary, he was wrong on two reads in his first post, wrong about shortaru throughout the game, and wrong on scattered reads everywhere else.

He also doesn't really present full groupings of the player list like he did in 2603 this game.

Basically, 2603 bugs me because... Moment is either having a

really strong

towngame, or he is playing like House did in Witches Ball and just trying to get every single read correct and project confidence in those reads he knows are correct.

But, as I have said, it could just be that Moment has been having a really good game. I honestly don't know.

[Krazy]

Basically I've been asking myself this whole game if the Moment who wrote 2603 in this game is the same Moment that thought Brian Skies, Gamma Emerald, and Sakura were scum in Witches Ball.

[Krazy]

I was just looking through her games played for a game with a scum PT, saw that game had one, and then got *really confused* when I tried to actually read it LOL

[Krazy]

Like the 26? posts of Labyrinth are the main basis of your understanding of Scum Taly, right Nancy?

[Krazy]

Yeah he did. Also I'm sticking with "he" because he's a gentlemen in the flavor of the game and no gender is listed. Is "she" generally correct for Moment?

This is probably the strongest Taly scumgame right?
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

It reads waaaay different than this game 0.o

[Krazy]

2603:

{Dannflor, Dr Worm, Vedith, Ankamius, Firebringer, SS, TheBrie, Taly} town.

That leaves {PvtUrist, Krazy, RC, Allomancer, DT, Nancy, Gamma, Pink Ball}.

[Krazy]

And your pronouns are confusing tf out of me here. Taly is a he and moment is a she.

Yeah I'm mostly trying to stick to the pronoun as role-in-this-game but I think I've been inconsistent with some slots.

I only asked about Moment because I don't even really know.

[Krazy]

It’s definitely better than the one you referenced, by a longshot. I was right about him in SC 2, wasn’t I, so where is this even coming from?

If Gamma is getting lynched before M-TB, then I want to be damn sure I'm not the game-losing pocket LOL

Like, if Pvt is going today, I'd like to feel pretty damn sure that his solve isn't correct. So far I'm pretty sure he's wrong about Taly, but to be honest this is the first time I've really started to dig into {her} meta on my own. You seem pretty convinced so there shouldn't be too much issue in shoring up my read there.

It sounds like you're 90%+ on Dann town? Have you meta'd him at all or are you primarily going off tone/PT interactions?

[Krazy]

How is this one of moment’s best posts in the game?

5/5 on townreads and 1/1 on scum poes is good for anyone d1 tbh.

[Krazy]

(expired on 2019-02-20 18:00:08) -- Gamma where are you?

[Krazy]

Yeah you're right, 3317 certainly tastes pretty townie.

So the continued solve is Gamma+TB? Like TB's continued paranoia about Moment is pretty impressive if she's scum with Gamma, ngl.

[Krazy]

Town [Taly, Gamma, Vedith, Krazy, Ankamius]
Lean Town [Pink Ball, Alisae, Firebringer, RC]
Mixed [Nancy]
Null [TheBrie, Doubting Thomas, Dr Worm, Moment]
Leaning Scum [PvT]
Scum [Allomancer]

Alright let's play "can we meta Dann while only discussing towngames"

Uhhh... Dann, can you explain why you did not color-code your reads list in this game but you did in https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10691036

and

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10618196

I feel like that's actually kinda a garbage argument but it's the only thing that catches my eye in the t-8 minutes before I hammer Gamma.

And it's not like you wouldn't color code a reads list as scum because I 'feel strongly' you would LOL, guess it's just a question of when you really started 'solving' in this game I guess vs. in a more normal game

[Krazy]

Can you compress your questions down if possible?

Why should I not hammer you in 5 minutes?

Go

[Krazy]

Since Gamma just got here I guess I won't cut her off mid-post.

But given I did give a 4 hour warning on ITH... and I feel most of my arguments have been refuted more or less...

If Gamma agrees that if she flips green, we continue on to M-TB, then I think we just go for it?

[Krazy]

Taly

You're pretty strong on Taly > Dancefloor at this point?

[Krazy]

How much more time do you want Gamma? If you're like, "give me X time to respond to Taly" I will give you that time. I definitely feel like you're getting bombarded with posts right now which might not be the best time for coherent responses, although I did say I was going to hammer you 7 minutes ago and I usually am pretty dedicated to countdowns.

If you can make a strong case for M-TB going before you, then I will definitely hear you out there.

Like, I've clearly stated I wanted M-TB first. If it is {M-TB} + Taly, you think I should leave the dance on Taly over lynching Dancefloor?

[Krazy]

Ok well, if you don't say you want a specific amount of time to respond to Taly in (expired on 2019-02-20 18:30:38), I'm just going to hammer then now that you've kinda had the chance to check in.

[Krazy]

Gamma, I <3 u

VOTE: GAMMAMERALD

Would you kindly flip scum?

[Krazy]

Thank you kindly for obliging, Gam-gams.

VOTE: The Bread

[Krazy]

I don't really think there's anything Moment can say that would change The Bread from being my highest priority elimination at this point.

We must not question the ways of Dr Worm. He may not have been a real doctor, but he was a truly magnificent worm.

But it is your vote. Use it when you are ready.

[Krazy]

If we're wrong, we go into 4-way, and we would then begin discussions about how to formulate an innocent child probably.

Moment's commentary would be useful insofar as helping us decide the resolution of 4-way, if that were to occur, but there are no circumstances in which his testimony would change my preferred lynch at this point.

[Krazy]

I would be impressed with someone's scumplay if the game didn't end with a Moment-Brie flip.

[Krazy]

Congrats on 1000 posts this game btw! All on your own too

[Krazy]

Ok. Well that's unfortunate.

I guess now we decide who we want to IC.

My first inclination is to get Nancy IC'd but we should probably talk about it I guess.

[Krazy]

Because I'm town, but you should only stay if you are also town

[Krazy]

Do you disagree about who should be IC'd?

[Krazy]

Well, Nancy, who is your strongest townread at this point?

[Krazy]

OK, would you like Taly IC'd? This would be the most informative for me, since that effectively solves the game from my point of view.

[Krazy]

OK, would you like Taly IC'd? This would be the most informative for me, since that effectively solves the game from my point of view.

@Nancy, didn't pedit for Dann sorry

[Krazy]

Let's see.

Most recent scum game on my Jenga alt: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=78234

Day 1 of a town game on my main: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

But the more relevant games will be on the alt I've been slow-rolling, but I guess this would be the time to out it since it's on Nancy's mind.

DVa is probably the more relevant alt for evaluating my play, and I planned to out it at the end of this game anyway. I believe Dann at this point is the only living player unaware I am DVa.

Excalibur (town): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Witches Ball (basically this setup, town): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Most recent scumgame as DVa (only -d posts, hydra with Auro who did most of the weightlifting): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Probably my most tryhard scumgame, coalition: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

[Krazy]

So I don't want to make it seem like I have trust tells. I can present the games and simply argue, this game is outside my scum range. That demeans my scum-range, and you might not believe it. Theoretically, I'm not the one that should be making this argument. But that's why I include coalition, which is the game people would usually point to and say, "but actually maybe this is kinda like how you play as scum." I am showcasing my strongest scum games and saying--look at them, please. If you look at my average scum games, my general preference is to lurk. Actually there's another schadd game I should even bring up here.

Another example of my scum play on my main: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

This is not my scum play. I know I am town, and if you are doing an argument from meta, then I believe after evaluating my play in other games, you should probably conclude I am town.

Now, we are dealing with a situation where someone is playing a very strong scum game. My inclination at this point is to think that player is Dann. But I don't know that, which is why I would prefer to get an IC so that my solving process is focused on two players. This is how me and Chibi did it in Witches Ball, it worked there. If I seem kind of less tilted here than the rest of you, it's probably because I was in the 4-way mylo the last time this setup was run so "sudden twist, the person in the mountainous I thought was scum flipped town" doesn't phase me that badly I guess.

At this point, I look at the setup and I say, okay, the first thing I do is decide who I would be most okay with losing the game to, and then I IC that person. I wouldn't mind losing to Nancy, which is why I volunteered her to be the IC. Nancy has argued convincingly that she would have caught Taly by now, so I am not strongly opposed to Taly being IC'd. Frankly, I could be wrong on any of the three of you, and I just accept that. If I lose this game to someone who has dramatically expanded their scum range, then GG. Dann is the one who has been most suspected by other players, and who I myself have second guessed the most posts of, but every player has at some point been case or discussed as possible scum at this point. If it's Nancy, then Firebringer gets to pat himself on the back I guess. If it's Taly, Pvt is laughing in the grave. If it's Dann, then PB probably has some mixed feelings.

[Krazy]

Yes, ICing someone can certainly lose us the game. But we would be losing the game quickly, based on who we believe is already town and who would win anyway, rather than losing the game slowly, in a manner that would be more tilting. At this point, I know I'm never going to be totally sure on which is the correct answer, because scum has played too well. So I would prefer to save myself 1/3rd of the effort, frankly.

[Krazy]

Yes, I also hate the coins, although it's probably supposed to be related to the post-intermission IC pairing. Beyond that, our early game was damaged by Firebringer making it impossible to make the high coin male a consensus townread, which dramatically increased the incentive to simply skip first dance. Some of the issues here were caused by town play, some of the issues were caused by setup. It's a fast paced setup no matter what though.

[Krazy]

Thought about it and I'm still ready to IC Nancy.

It's between Taly and Dan and it might actually maybe be Taly?

There's a few different factors here for me. The main thing is that I feel like Gamma came into post-intermission with high motivation, and I just have a really hard time imagining Gamma feeling good about this game if the scum team was exactly Gamma-Nancy-DT, since Nancy/DT have like an ongoing personality conflict. Additionally, I kinda felt like both Nancy and Gamma were trying to become partnered with me, and I find it really hard to see that coming from S/S.

Beyond that I just would be more shocked and impressed with Nancy scum.

There are some things to think about here:
-Did Nancy keep her cool too well for DT joking about her?
-Did Nancy keep her cool too well for Gamma saying she has an "authority complex" as town?
-Was Nancy threatening to replace out possibly related to being partnered with DT?

The other issue I'm seeing going back through isos is that Taly's interactions with both DT and Gamma seem kinda blah.

There's like one post in particular from Gamma that almost makes me townread Dann on its own.

Bottom line here is that I'm pretty sure Nancy never flips scum here. If the answer to the three questions above are all "no" then we should do a hammer test because if Nancy is the scum I think we just lose. I feel like Nancy mostly did "normal Nancy" reactions to those phenomena.

Kinda where I'm at right now.

That being said I'm curious about Dann's reluctance to IC Nancy and Nancy's lack of enthusiasm for being IC'd. Dann, if there's something in your PT that bothers you, you should probably say so.

[Krazy]

Taly is bleeding town

taly i am at the point where i can sheep you shamelessly


who should i pair up with

and who are your scum reads

Obviously there's ways to second-guess this.

Not in love with this as W/W

[Krazy]

Hi I see that I have 3 votes on me rn, could we not before I can present my case and stuff? I've found all the quotes I need so it'll probably be done in 18 hours tops.

Also let's give Pvt a chance to give some reads before we send him off? I don't really feel bothered by being voted but I feel like no one realizes the impact of removing the IC before they've had a chance to give reads

I have such a strong feeling that

Gamma is Grima Wormtongue whispering into the ear of our King IC PvTheoden

I'M WHO????

This is the post that bothers me for scum Dann, I feel like Gamma does these weird over-exaggerated reactions much more to town than in S/S

[Krazy]

Okay, I don't think I'm getting to the point where I present a final solve yet. Making my way through Nancy page 1.

Obviously Nancy has a lot of content before DT even enters the game, and on rereading it's really interesting that her threat to leave the dance *occurs before DT basically does anything* so I'm kinda not thinking we can say it was ragetilt over a pair she doesn't like; actually it was because she thought there was an unfair case somewhere in Dann/Taly, particularly in regard to a strange misunderstanding from Taly that surprises me on a reread.

Yes, Vedith seems too eager and isn’t trying to sort the ladies.

My main concern is making it to the dance.

I do recall Vedith being similar in the last one we were in together and he was town

God help us in that case.

First interaction of Nancy--> Gamma. There's a lot of pretty NAI interactions of Nancy-->Gamma and I guess I should reread where Gamma comment son the authority complex thing, I think that was page 2.

Ok so Firebringer, Nancy, Krazy and Gamma are all town. Alisae and Taly are close to town. I have my doubts about Dannflor and Allomancer is nothing like the obvtown I got last game.

I need more gents' townreads.

I’m mindmelding with most of your reads here, especially Fire and Gamma. I feel pretty good about Alisae and Taly as well. I think I can sort Krazy, so I’m hoping he asks me.

Nancy can you expand on why you were arguing for Gamma town in early predance?

Okay, so apparently I’m scum for not automatically being convinced Allo’s scum here, got it.,

No. That's not at all why I scum read you.

Okay, why then because I’m not seeing it.

Hate to go back to such early pre-dance but it's worth thinking about why Dann was scumreading Nancy at this point (in regard to the merits of each slot)

I think Taly tries harder to obvtown as scum in this situation

I don't think it's likely he's scum here

Taly seems nothing here, like he was in Labrynth.

why are you asserting a meta scumread on me when you havent really repsonded to my latest explanation to you? about my

allo

scumread and your other reads

also, i dont get

pink balls

consistent mindmeld with you here

I’m not, the exact opposite in fact. I’m saying I think you’re town in this game. Are PB and Alisae the only ones correctly reading my posts here?

This is the thing I mentioned earlier -- why did Taly think that Nancy was scumreading her by saying she's "nothing like she was in labyrinth"? This is such a strange thing to misunderstand

yeah your read doesnt seem justified at all

I think you’re probably freaking town here, because you sound NOTHING like you did in Labrynth -

where you were SCUM

. God!

I still think it's a bit odd to get so hung up on the connection to Labyrinth, given that was an unusual scum game, and also Taly actually did not have that much presence in the thread (afaik?). Then again maybe that's why it seems so different?

thing about my meta.

I've played a game with you and I've read a game with you in it. You have a very distinctive style

Allomancer, do you still scum read Vedith, and if so would you share reasoning?

WILL SOMEONE PLEASE FREAKING EXPLAIN THIS To Me ALREADY BECAUSE MY HEAD Is HURTING.

What was going on here again?

@mod please replace me.

This is like MBoS all over agian and I’m not fucking putting myself through that. Sorry.

Nancy
Ank (it’s not within her scumrange to be hurtful to me as scum)
Alisae
RC
Gamma
Taly
Vedith
Pink Ball
Krazy

———————————

Dann

——————————

Fire
Worm
Dann
Allo


I’m sure I’m missing some people.

This is just interesting. DT is the only name missing from the list right? Which makes sense, since DT had not posted yet. Does Nancy as scum omit DT from her first list that includes basically everyone else? I wanna say probably not? But I'd like to hear from Dann and Taly on their interpretations of this list.

hello nancy WILL YOU DANCE WITH ME

Uh, after that MU lovers’ game, I still have bad memories.

Why am I your first choice here?

I'm more including this here to indicate that 1038, toward the bottom of page 1 of Nancy's iso, is where DT finally enters the thread. If we can eliminate these interactions as W/W, which is my current theory, then we should proceed with ICing Nancy.

[Krazy]

I just don’t think anyone is an IC.

Just to be clear, what I'm saying is that some point we do a hammer test. I.e., Dann would vote me, I would vote me, and then you would make a post without a hammer. Since we are friends, I would hope at that point that if you were scum you would hammer rather than drag out the game. If you are town, at that point Dann knows you're not scum (from his point of view), so he keeps his vote on me+Taly, and then I would unvote for further discussion. That's what I mean by "making someone an IC."

[Krazy]

I don't want to overwhelm the thread, I know there's still Big Mood over being in 4-way mylo and there's already an immense amount of content to process.

I think I'll hold off from diving further into Nancy's iso tonight, and wait for Taly and Dann to discuss the potential of ICing Nancy based on what has been said so far.

[Krazy]

Nancy are you on?

[Krazy]

In the end if you're scum then I can always just blame RC in post for never doubting your alignment, and say Firebringer is MVP which would just be sassy AF.

VOTE: Krazy

Make a post without a hammer, or hammer and get this game over with.

[Krazy]

One minute
:sweaty palms:

[Krazy]

gg

[Krazy]

Krazy. You bastard.

?

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

Why? Nancy played well. It was a good game.

[Krazy]

So do we get the spoiler for the 'first run' now too?

[Krazy]

You played bad.

Well that's not a very nice thing to say

[Krazy]

neither is hey i blame this loss on the person who had the least ability to influence it

I was not actually being serious in that moment and I also did not think Nancy was scum about to hammer, it's not like I actually blame you for this loss.

[Krazy]

I was shouting at u in the dead pt for literally the last few pages.

But you could have been shouting at me in thread if you hadn't convinced Vedith to leave the dance...?

[Krazy]

No I couldn't.
I literally lost the motivation to play this game.

And you guys probably would have lynched my pair anyways.

You were probably the fourth most townread pairing when you both left. You killed the chances to lynch DT by accepting a pairing before we had sorted the plan for Dance 1, which would have given us an extra week to discuss that flip, and also made it impossible for town to agree on a coherent strategy for dance 1 pairings. Like if you want to play the blame game I'm more than happy to oblige.

I don't understand why you think I don't respect you as a player? I think you pairing as the top coin lady and then goading your partner into leaving the dance is pretty demoralizing. I went into this setup thinking it was scumsided and the game became unenjoyable for a while when my endgame pairings became compromised with a threatened obvious T/T leaving. I spent like days doing damage control with an entire town that constantly insisted my play was scummy.

[Krazy]

Is there ever going to be an explanation for the reason of the cancellation of the first run?

[Krazy]

I don't get why people have to be so rude, really. Dann and I both agreed Nancy played well. I don't see how I win the game anyway if I can never convince Dann that Nancy is scum so... boo hoo we lost a mountainous? Rather lose to scum playing well than to quasi-bastard mechanics or immense setup wifom. It's Gamma's best scum game to date, almost hands down, and Nancy's carry was very impressive.

pedit: OK, I guess there's some salt.

[Krazy]

I would say to get rid of the coins one way or the other, still, personally.

[Krazy]

Stop empathizing with a person who is behaving like a child.

Yeah you need to stop giving Nancy shit. Your play this game was about 1000x worse in my book. You made us backpedal on the strategy for dance 1 by pairing without looking at your rolecard, and you goaded a T/T pair into leaving by completely flaking on your PT.

Like you can't give Nancy shit for emotional manipulation *when you manipulated Vedith into wasting his slot*.

So no, sorry, Nancy played incredibly well given she was in a role she didn't want, with a teammate she actively disliked.

[Krazy]

neither is hey i blame this loss on the person who had the least ability to influence it

But you did influence it -- in the dead thread you admit that your end of pre-dance reads were political reads governed by survivalism, when there was no way for the living players to know that. You created a massive distraction in pre-dance purely governed by survivalism, which contributed to a demoralizing gamestate which created a smokescreen for other high levels of AtE or anti-town behavior.

Like you can't say "oh I called all the wolves from dead thread" and also say you lied about every strong pairing when by now you know well enough that a significant portion of the player base will take your end of day reads seriously.

It does not become easier to focus on threatened replace-outs when you are threatening to suicide on my top townread, while simultaneously saying that your 'deepscum' concerned read is locktown when you have the second most experience playing with that player out of basically anyone in the list.

Like I think it's true that town outplayed town here. While my comment about "blaming RC" was really just a parody of BrianSkies "just faith in RC" point at the end of Witches Ball, it really did not help me that you obfuscated ALL of your reads and not just TheBrie. It gave me the impression that your read of Taly was unexamined since you had exclusively focused on reading me as scum, which made it significantly more difficult to get out of Taly/Dann as the deepwolf possibilities.

[Krazy]

Literally the only reason I *didn't* replace out when you said you were leaving Ank was because I had already nuked the previous dance, but you threatening to suicide on my top townread made me incredibly demoralized, RC.

[Krazy]

Anyway, well played Nancy and Gamma.

[Krazy]

@Nancy, I didn't self-vote as a joke, I self-voted because I didn't really see how I would ever end up convincing myself that it was you over either Taly or Dann. The people who I knew had the most familiarity with your scum game either townread your slot, backpedaled their scumread of your slot, etc. etc. I had suspected you might have been scum in the first run, and I thought that you had more manageable scum tells since I thought I *maybe* had a toneread on you there. I had just read Taly's flawless scum win and I thought her scum range might be wider than expected, and I had no games from Dann that looked really anything like this. Everyone I was counting on to help me solve the game insisted that you were the strongest, least scummy link in the entire townblock, and frankly I agreed. I really thought Taly might be trying to manipulate me with the "why shouldn't I leave the dance" argument and Dann's posts had me paranoid the entire game. Either you were town, or you had already won and I would just be dragging it out.

The only joke in that post was blaming RC, and that was only because Brian Skies had made such a deliberately obnoxious post about trusting RC at the end of Halloween's Ball. But now that I know he was deliberately giving political reads just to survive intermission I'm actually a little pissed.

[Krazy]

And btw I totally felt like pairing with you would have been hard mode for me but absolutely worth it if I could pocket you within the PT

I mostly didn't want to pair with you because we already talk every day on discord and I was super worried I would perspective slip, which is basically the same reason I didn't want to talk with Nancy.

[Krazy]

Perspective slip what??? You were town.

I just thought it would make the game less stressful, lol. Anyway Taly seemed like a fun person to share a PT with and he is.

[Krazy]

Having both of you hot for my pairing really fucked with my head since I wasn't even being townread for most of predance 0.o

[Krazy]

While I was scumreading PB in the push, I had no optimism that his flip would solve the game unless it was PB+Gamma or something easy like that. The primary goal, as I said, was actually to have more reliable information about the proposed endgame pairings, who had yet to really have the opportunity to fight against a potential mislynch. I didn't actually need time, at that point, I needed to give Dann, Moment, and TheBrie chances to obvtown. And then having him leave as soon as I voted him--when I had just asked him to stay and let people respond to my push on him--made me feel both humiliated, tilted, and increasingly exhausted. I felt like I had been pushed so hard by so many people for so many stupid reasons, and then to just flat out murder Dr. Worm, who everyone knew was town...

Like, if I'm supposed to townread TheBrie for saying she will leave Moment, and townread Dr. Worm for saying he will suicide to avoid being IC'd, and also somehow figure out that RC was exclusively threatening to leave the dance only to survive to second dance, then at what point am I supposed to turn around and say oh, yeah, Nancy threatening to replace out like a week ago is scummy... we can't have a gamestate where the main metric of townreading is based on suicidal impulses which then must be backpedaled under pressure and still expect town to win

[Krazy]

It's not is it the best strategy. It"s--does this risk making the game totally unenjoyable. I didn't say it was what scum would do, I said it was one possible strategy that scum could opt for that would mean they got to eliminate 8 different players from the game before the game began--4 lynched, 2 nightkilled, 2 killed via the lover mechanics when the scum scumclaiming get lynched, in addition to wasting the ic. It's not a question of optimal scum strategy, it is a question of where is there the most potential for abuse. Particularly when last scum standing often does well due to the lack of associatives.

Like effectively this is a setup where under certain circumstances scum could turn a 17 player 3v14 mountainous with no investigatives into a 1v5 serial killer game with no investigatives. Eliminating the two other scum in the most obvious way possible means the scum get yo kill the top 6 strongest town players while sacrificing their two weakest. Ev or not it just doesn't seem fun when it is so easy to think of ways for it to be abused.

[Krazy]

@Krazy I'm really really sorry for tilting you that way, but now that you know that it was Nancy, do you think a convo about your push on me would've helped determine she was the remaining scum? We had different optimal strategies that collided: my idea was flipping all the lynchbaity pairings so you could discuss who is the deepwolf with enough time, since there were 200 pages already. But it wasn't my intention to discredit you, the timing was wrong. Sorry!!

I mean, it would have slowed down the game and allowed thebrie, dann, moment, taly all time to save you. Taly wanted you as an additional endgame pairing. Also, I wanted to hear from Doctor Worm on his reads post DT flip.

The thing is we had 200 pages of AtE and deliberate obfuscating from our flipped town. What we needed was an opportunity for the living, lynchbaity town a chance to become less lynchbaity. 5 pages of solid reasoning from only living players would have gone a long way to stabilize the gamestate.